Ryan Caldbeck, CEO of CircleUp, explains why consumer receipt-reward apps fail to provide useful market intelligence for emerging, long-tail CPG brands.
“The challenge has been many of them tap out at five, ten million consumers, at least here in the U.S. The problem with that level is that then that's such a small portion of the pot of the overall population that you're not capturing the long tail of companies.”
quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading:
filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard
(the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →
“There will be more of them, but they will get to a smaller level. So what I mean is it lasts 10 or 15 years, the brands that won, Chobani, et cetera, you can build multi-billion dollar businesses. I'm skeptical if that's true in CPG going forward.”
Ryan CaldbeckFeb 26, 2019▶ 29:36a16z Podcast | Who's Down with CPG, DTC? (And Micro-Brands Too?)
PredictionNot checkable as stated
Caldbeck: Quantitative VC will emerge in CPG, but is impossible in tech
“In CPG specifically, there will be quantitative VC firms... We think that that is possible in some industries in the private markets. We don't think it's possible in tech.”
Ryan CaldbeckFeb 26, 2019▶ 39:40a16z Podcast | Who's Down with CPG, DTC? (And Micro-Brands Too?)
AssertionNot checkable as stated
Caldbeck: DTC customer acquisition costs often jump tenfold within two years
“We see a lot of DTC companies raise money, you know, with a CAC, let's call it 10 dollars, 30 dollars, and then over the course of the subsequent two years, it raises literally sometimes by an order of magnitude, and that is just killing their profitability.”
Ryan CaldbeckFeb 26, 2019▶ 4:01a16z Podcast | Who's Down with CPG, DTC? (And Micro-Brands Too?)
Insight
Caldbeck: Direct-to-consumer is best used as a product iteration channel
“So when we say it doesn't work, I think it is an incredible channel for iterating on a product. I think it drives innovation. I can find my consumer base and I can test a new product. Next month I can test a different product. That's very different than the of…”
Ryan CaldbeckFeb 26, 2019▶ 8:45a16z Podcast | Who's Down with CPG, DTC? (And Micro-Brands Too?)
PredictionOpen · timeframe Feb 2039
Caldbeck: Physical grocery stores will endure for at least 20 years
“I think grocery stores are here for the very, very long term. Very long term meaning next 20 years at least.”
Ryan CaldbeckFeb 26, 2019▶ 13:40a16z Podcast | Who's Down with CPG, DTC? (And Micro-Brands Too?)
AssertionSupported
Caldbeck: Traditional retail data providers cover under 5% of CPG brands
“You've got a couple retail level sales providers that on average track 20, 30,000 Products or companies rather each. There's about a million and a half out there. A million and a half, and they cover less than five percent of them.”
Ryan CaldbeckFeb 26, 2019▶ 20:46a16z Podcast | Who's Down with CPG, DTC? (And Micro-Brands Too?)
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