Everything Rob Walling said on any show that made the record, most notable first. Each card names its show and opens the statement there.
Walling: AI wrapper SaaS apps are unviable without subsidized compute
“I think if you actually had to charge with that really cost, these are unviable businesses is, is my hypothesis.”
Walling: All no-code SaaS apps funded by TinySeed eventually require rewrites
“We've funded a handful, and I don't know the exact numbers, but it's five or less Of no code, code bases. No code apps, I guess I would call them, you know, that are built in air table, bubble, that kind of stuff. And all of them have been rewritten or will ne…”
Walling: Product Builders Are Not Entrepreneurs Until Managing the Full Business
“I think that folks who are builders, product people, developers, makers, I don't think you're an entrepreneur until you take on the, A full role, a full scope of running a business.”
Walling: TinySeed's custom AI model investments were decimated by GPT-4o
“We get a lot of AI applicants, and some of them are developing their own models, like custom models that they're training, and I'll be honest, I don't know how many of those we've invested in, it's a small number, low single digits, let's say. I think all of t…”
Walling: TinySeed wins almost all deals despite competing funds offering higher valuations
“They will match or beat our offers, right? It's like, we make an offer and then they're like, well, obviously I'll give you a higher valuation because they have to. And yet we win almost all those deals.”
Walling: Launching MVPs to an audience creates false demand and burns goodwill
“I call that false demand the curse of the audience. And if there's two curses to it, one, you tweet it out or you email your list and everyone's like, oh, I kind of want to check out what they're doing and everybody's really interested. And then they're not ac…”
TinySeed data shows SaaS startups have low odds of breaking growth plateaus
“The moment you plateau, the odds of you getting past that plateau are actually quite low, at least from the analysis that I did.”
Walling: Only 1% of startups should raise traditional venture capital
“I talk about my one nine 90 rule where I say around one percent of startups should go after venture, about 90% should bootstrap, and I think about nine percent should raise probably some type of funding. Maybe that's tiny seed, maybe it's angels, but it's like…”
Walling: Google organic SEO traffic will drop 15% to 25% in 2025
“So my fourth prediction for 2025 and the first new one is that search volume For Google organic SEO, and I'm talking about content-based keyword targeting, where you're cranking out an essay, an ultimate guide, a blog post, I think they will slide across the b…”
Walling: Do not build a ten-year business on third-party platforms
“I would not want to build a ten-year business on any of these platforms, because they do not give a about you, and they will sooner cut off your API access accidentally, say oops, Killed your business. They will build the feature directly into their platform.”
Walling: Only 1% of tech startups should raise venture capital
“Not only, should not everyone raise it, but I only think about one percent of venture-eligible tech startups should raise venture. I think one percent, approximately, should consider raising venture. I think nine percent should consider raising some type of fu…”
Rob Walling: 80% to 90% of plateauing SaaS companies never recover
“Most companies that I see that do hit a plateau, don't make it out. And I think the number of the graphs that I looked through, it was like, 80, between 80 and 90%. Once they plateaued, they just, they haven't yet made it out.”
Walling: Relying on Google SEO is riskier than technical infrastructure dependencies
“So the reason I have this as number six is that if bubble 10 X their pricing or had a big outage, you could rebuild that. And if you're hosted on AWS or using SendGrid or using WordPress, you can rebuild it. The risks are there, but they're lower than if you l…”
Walling: Jason Fried admits luck and timing drove Basecamp's success
“They can do stuff like not market, like not sell, because they're in a luxurious position and good for them. You know, the luck and timing were one and two. Jason Fried told me that for their success. Unless I can replicate luck and timing, I can't. Then I nee…”
Walling: SaaS startups should avoid freemium without four key markers
“Ruben Gomez has these four markers that I often quote, I actually put them in my book, of when freemium can work, and if you don't have all four of them, you probably shouldn't try freemium.”
Walling: Avoid starting a bootstrapped SaaS without a technical co-founder
“Maybe it's like an 80% don't do is don't start a SaaS without a technical co-founder. And the reason that I say that is Most of the companies that I see, the bootstrapped and mostly bootstrap companies... The vast majority of folks I see trying to do this with…”
Walling: Under 5% of TinySeed's 170 Portfolio Startups Had an Audience
“Less than five percent of all tiny seed funded companies, which is like a 170 now less than five percent had any kind of audience when they started or even have any kind of audience today.”
Walling: Higher SaaS pricing typically drives lower churn and faster growth
“The higher price, typically the lower the churn, the faster the growth. Like we see this in the state of independent SaaS when we ask about churn and lifetime value and ticket price, and then we compare it to growth. It's obvious that the higher lifetime value…”
Walling: Bolt's 97% plunge left option-borrowing employees in debt after Breslow's secondary
“Giving loans to their employees so that employees could buy stock options, and then Bolt lost 97% of its value, and so anyone who took out loans to buy their stock options now owes the company money, sometimes thousands, sometimes tens of thousands of dollars.…”
Walling: 90% of tech startups should bootstrap and 1% need venture capital
“Should at least consider venture. They're probably venture ready. And then about nine percent, I think, should consider some type of funding because it just makes it a little easier to get off the ground. And that maybe is angel friends and family. Maybe it's …”
Walling: SaaS is valued on profit under $1.5M ARR, revenue above
“The way it works is net profit up to about a million and a half ARR. And above that, if you're dealing with the right buyers, so it'd be strategics or The big, bigger private equity who are not value buyers, they're gonna look at you at a revenue multiple base…”
Walling: Twitter (X) will change ownership in 2024
“I think that Twitter might change hands again in 20, 24. That is probably the ultimate prediction.”
Walling: 37signals' ONCE will not penetrate beyond a developer niche
“That once will not penetrate. It's my prediction. They will not penetrate past the handful of nerdy developers who basically want to manage their own servers.”
Walling: AI will not take developer jobs, but will augment software builders
“I don't believe AI is going to take a bunch of developer jobs. I think this is the rising tide that raises all the boats. Unless you're a real developer, and you don't, or you resist AI, or you don't want to use it becomes this tool of augmentation that I thin…”