Full Self Driving

product on 12 shows · 18 statements across 15 episodes · said 15 times in 10 episodes since 2023

All-In 6 the Neon Show 3 BG2 Pod 1 the Knowledge Project 1 Latent Space 1 No Priors 1 the a16z Podcast 1 TBPN 1 More or Less Lenny's Podcast Big Technology 20VC

Mentions by year, every show

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All-In 6the Neon Show 3the a16z Podcast 1BG2 Pod 1the Knowledge Project 1No Priors 1TBPN 1Latent Space 1

2026 5 mentions in 3 episodes 2 per episode
2025 8 mentions in 5 episodes 2 per episode
2024 1 mention in 1 episode
2023 1 mention in 1 episode

every mention on every show, scene by scene, with the transcript →

18 statements about Full Self Driving, every show

Tesla's FSD is a masterclass in human-in-the-loop AI agent design
“I find the Tesla software, like, quite inspiring. In particular, it has, like, the self-driving feature, and, you know, I, I've mentioned a few times, like, today, like, I think it's really interesting to think about how to build, like, mixed initiative softwa…”
Alexander Embirikos Dec 14, 2025 ▶ 1:19:37 Inside OpenAI: 2026 is the year of agents, AI’s biggest bottleneck, and why compute isn’t the issue
Tesla Full Self-Driving cannot be fully trusted yet without risking trouble
“I have two Teslas and I play with a full self-driving all the time. It's entertaining, but I wouldn't trust it. Entirely, right? If you trust it, you're going to be in trouble. So it's not a hundred percent there yet.”
Bill Vass Sep 10, 2025 ▶ 38:51 Booz Allen CTO: AI in Government, Autonomous Driving, Quantum's Promise
ALL-IN Prediction Not publicly verifiable
Musk: Existing Tesla AI4 hardware will reach 2-3x human safety
“I am confident that the current chips AI, AI four chips that are in the cars will achieve self-driving safety that is at least two to three times that of human and maybe even X and the software that will be released for that is, is coming out over the next few…”
Elon Musk Sep 10, 2025 ▶ 15:36 Elon Musk on DOGE, Optimus, Starlink Smartphones, Evolving with AI, Why the West is Imploding
ALL-IN Prediction Didn’t hold up
Kalanick: Tesla Hardware 5 will probably launch next year
“Hardware five is coming out on Tesla probably next year, which is going to make a big difference in what FSD can do.”
Travis Kalanick Jul 11, 2025 ▶ 25:35 Grok 4 Wows, The Bitter Lesson, Third Party, AI Browsers, SCOTUS backs POTUS on RIFs
Albergotti: Tesla remains technologically far ahead of the industry in self-driving
“The company though is still, I mean, they're just way ahead of the industry technologically. I mean, the full self-driving technology is just like, it's incredible.”
Reed Albergotti Mar 14, 2025 ▶ 29:16 Gruber Slams Apple's Siri Failure, Tech Stocks In Freefall, Vibecoding & OpenAI's Agents
NO PRIORS Prediction Not checkable as stated
Vogt: Claims That Mostly Autonomous Systems Cannot Reach Full Autonomy Are Wrong
“That statement is, is almost certainly wrong given a long enough time span.”
Kyle Vogt Feb 20, 2025 ▶ 4:22 No Priors Ep. 102 | With The Bot Company CEO Kyle Vogt
MORE OR LESS Assertion Not checkable as stated
Jessica Lessin: Inability to sell Full Self-Driving in China is crushing Tesla
“He can't sell full self-driving in China, and it's crushing Tesla compared to the local market, and of course he's so dependent on other things.”
Jessica Lessin Jan 17, 2025 ▶ 24:03 #82: TikTok, Trade Wars & Tech 2.0 · More or Less Podcast
TBPN Assertion Not checkable as stated
Tesla's current Full Self-Driving system can easily navigate enclosed tunnel networks
“The current Tesla, like full self-driving system could easily do that. No problem. And is like, that's kind of what's, what, what's happening in the Vegas.”
John Coogan Nov 21, 2024 ▶ 21:21 How to Spend a Trillion Dollars Fast (ep13)
ALL-IN Disclosure
Mark Cuban stopped using Tesla FSD because it terrified him
“I have, but I stopped using it just because it terrified me because it doesn't know what adversarial things it doesn't know.”
Mark Cuban Oct 3, 2024 ▶ 2:04:31 Mark Cuban: Love/Hate Relationship with Trump, Why He's Backing Kamala Harris
BG2 Prediction Partly held up
Gerstner: Tesla FSD 12.5 and 12.6 will be 100% hands-free
“On 12.5 and 12.6, we think they get to the point where they're a hundred percent hands free. So it doesn't constantly ding you to grab the wheel and you can really start looking away from the road for longer periods of time.”
Brad Gerstner Jul 25, 2024 ▶ 1:05:08 Ep13. Silicon Valley’s Political 180, META AI, COVID Postmortem | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
BG2 Assertion Supported
Gurley: Tesla Full Self-Driving Is Traditional AI, Not LLM-Based
“One thing that, that I think is really different between the full self-driving data point and is that it's not built on LLMs. It's a traditional use case of AI, which allows it to I think have much more finite input, output, and that example use case is fairly…”
Bill Gurley Apr 4, 2024 ▶ 6:17 Ep6. AI Demand / Supply - Models, Agents, the $2T Compute Build Out, Need for More Nuclear & More · Bg2 Pod
BG2 Opinion
Gurley: Tesla's end-to-end AI approach has much better chance of achieving FSD
“It seems to me this approach has a much better chance of going all the way and of being successful and certainly of being maintainable and reasonable.”
Bill Gurley Mar 7, 2024 ▶ 7:15 Ep4. Tesla FSD 12, Imitation AI Models, Open vs Closed AI Models, Delaware vs Elon, & Market Update · Bg2 Pod
BG2 Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gurley: Tesla uses generic open-source AI models for FSD V12
“And these AI models that Tesla's used for FSD-II are these generic open source AI models that you can find on hugging face, you know, and they obviously customize them.”
Bill Gurley Mar 7, 2024 ▶ 10:55 Ep4. Tesla FSD 12, Imitation AI Models, Open vs Closed AI Models, Delaware vs Elon, & Market Update · Bg2 Pod
BG2 Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Gerstner: Tesla earns $2,500 per car with 7% FSD penetration
“If you look at the unit economics of a Tesla, right? With no FSD, they're making about two and a half thousand bucks on a vehicle. If you look at it today, they have about seven percent penetration of FSD.”
Brad Gerstner Mar 7, 2024 ▶ 22:21 Ep4. Tesla FSD 12, Imitation AI Models, Open vs Closed AI Models, Delaware vs Elon, & Market Update · Bg2 Pod
BG2 Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: Tesla FSD v12 will be a ChatGPT moment for autonomous driving
“I think this is going to be a bit of a chat GPT moment for full self-driving, but what it really, it just reminded me of the magic of this moment.”
Brad Gerstner Feb 22, 2024 ▶ 0:47 BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner | NVDA, Chips, AI Compute Build Out, AI Impact on Big Tech | E03 · Bg2 Pod
BG2 Opinion
Gerstner: Tesla made more FSD progress in 12 months than past 7 years
“Tesla rebuilding their models, For how they do self-driving around imitation learning and all this interesting stuff going on over there. Like, you know, I think they probably made more progress in the last 12 months than in the last seven years.”
Brad Gerstner Feb 22, 2024 ▶ 0:56 BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner | NVDA, Chips, AI Compute Build Out, AI Impact on Big Tech | E03 · Bg2 Pod
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Socher: Full self-driving in complex, unconstrained environments won't work for a long time
“Full self-driving on off-road, dirt road, like small roads, nighttime fog, like all of these things like won't work for a long time”
Richard Socher Aug 18, 2023 ▶ 49:45 Richard Socher: The 3 Biggest Barriers to Building AGI; AI Startups vs Incumbents | E1050 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
a16z Assertion Partly supported
Andreessen: Tesla deploys live autonomous software without federal testing, improving safety
“Tesla has been climbing the ladder on self-driving car functionality capability. They do new software releases, push live to car at night anytime they want. Those new releases are not being tested by any federal, the federal, you know, it's a, whatever it's no…”
Marc Andreessen Jan 9, 2023 ▶ 41:50 Expert AI as a Healthcare Superpower

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