The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 974 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 974 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Jonathan Ross: AI will cause massive labor shortages, not mass unemployment
“I believe that AI is going to cause massive labor shortages. Yeah, I don't think we're gonna have enough people to fill all the jobs that are gonna be created.”
Taneja: Stripe will become a $1 trillion company in 10 years
“I think Stripe's gonna be a trillion dollar company. He's gotta give it 10 years, you know, so I'm, we're, it's a compounding business that, you know, Patrick and John always say infrastructure is hard, but it also compounds, and they're sort of steadily just …”
Tech companies will employ more software engineers in five years, not fewer
“I think more. And the reason is that engineering is such an elastic role, right? Where if we could build a hundred times more software or say we make engineers 10 times more efficient, We would probably build a hundred times more software, right? And so far as…”
Lawson: AI will decimate SaaS seat bases and human workflow roles
“The thing I would say though about any company in SAS today, and Atlassian is a Prime example of this is they are primed for, ah, disruption right now because AI is going to decimate their seat base for their products. It'll decimate the roles people are playi…”
Alex Schultz: A one-person startup reaching tens of millions is inevitable
“Instagram was seven people and got to tens of millions of active users. I don't see why there won't be the next Instagram that's one person and gets to tens of millions of active users. In fact, I think it's inevitable.”
Stebbings: AI agents will replace junior marketers and SDRs within 12 months
“Most 25, twenty-six-year-old marketing managers or SDRs, I'm sorry to say it, they're not brilliant. They do not love the craft. They are not better than a phenomenal agent will be in the next 12 months. They will be replaced.”
Lemkin: Cognition mandated 80-hour weeks and laid off 30% of acquired startup
“Well, I guess today, Cognition laid off 30% of the folks they bought, and they offered to buy out all the other 200 employees. They gave them a nine-month package. They told them they either had to work 80 hours a week, six days a week in the office, or they s…”
$100B Venture IPOs Will Remain Rare Generational Outcomes Through 2035
“So, so my guess is that a hundred billion dollar IPO over the next 10 years is still going to be a generational outcome. And so the question I throw back is, you know, do you think there's going to be 10, 20 A hundred billion dollar plus IPOs. I do not think s…”
O'Driscoll: Half of all seed funds will shut down within five years
“The answer is less. Half of everybody's gonna die.”
Chen expects top future AI model developers to emerge within years
“Don't think so yet. I can actually see big, new, even more powerful model developers appearing in the next few years.”
Lemkin: 100% of S&P 500 companies with cash will buy Bitcoin
“I think a hundred percent of S&P companies are going to buy Bitcoin over the next 48 months. A hundred percent. I think it's going to become part of the standard treasury function in the CFO's office that has cash. It's going to be part of cash management and …”
Lemkin: Shaun Maguire will leave Sequoia Capital in 2025
“I'll take the bet that he leaves this year.”
Varun Mohan: Salesforce won't be dethroned by database-plus-agent competitors
“It's very unlikely to me that what's going to happen is Salesforce will get dethroned by a company that is just a database with an agent operating on top of it. It just, there's too much inertia for the company building out these complex workflows.”
Lemkin: Rippling will 100% win its trade secret lawsuit against Deel
“There's no chance they'll lose you know, it could get settled, right? Which is, they're always the right outcome, even when there's emotion. The right outcome is always to settle it, right? There's no way they lose a hundred percent. The facts are too bad. The…”
Severin Hacker: AGI and UBI will replace human jobs in 20 years
“I believe that's gonna happen. Again, the big question is, is when is it gonna be? I don't think it's gonna be next five years. It's not going to be, maybe it's going to be next 10 years if you really see a broad adoption of these technologies, more likely may…”
O'Driscoll: GDP and productivity growth will remain at 2% for 20 years
“I think GDP growth and productivity growth has been roughly two percent since the dawn of the industrial revolution. And I'm willing to lean into the fact that it'll be two percent for the next 20 years.”
Hinrikus: Russia will attempt to attack another European country
“I think it's a very serious, very real concern. We should be living under the assumption that whatever happened in Ukraine now, Russia will try in another country over the next years, and we need to be ready for this.”
Lemkin: Competitors will never catch ChatGPT's revenue lead
“ChatGPT has pulled away. You cannot catch it. No matter what anybody says, you will never catch that revenue.”
Stebbings: Venture investors will not make money from LLMs
“I don't think any venture investors are going to make money from LLMs.”
O'Driscoll: Tiger Global and SoftBank are out of the venture game
“I mean, the big, I mean, the big momentum, the two biggest momentum players Of the last decade, Tiger and SoftBank are already out of the game.”
Stebbings: Safe Superintelligence is guaranteed to cover its liquidation preference
“With a LickPref, there is zero chance this does not get bought for at least LickPref.”
Lazarte: A Trillion-Dollar Company Will Be Founded Within Three Years
“What I'm telling you is in the next three years, I'm sure someone will start a company that's going to be worth a trillion dollars.”
Morin: AI chip oversupply will lead to GPUs selling at 30% value
“I very much worry there will be an oversupply of these chips. The problem is, is that, you know, remember, the chips are the collateral. So, you know, somewhere, you know, in the US or whatever, there's going to be a data center with like a thousand GPUs that …”
Ross: Groq plans to serve 50% of global AI inference by 2027
“And our goal by the end of 20, 27 is to be providing at least half of the world's AI inference compute.”
Odoo will displace SAP within 10 to 20 years
“First, I think it's just a matter of time. I think I don't know how they can survive to what's coming in from them. We have so much advance, years in our head, we are stealing so much clients to them, that it's just a matter of time for me. But it's gonna take…”
Sivulka: Fine-tuned models will never catch up to inference scaling
“And so you saw the idea of, ah, of post training or kind of like this refined, verticalized model creation, ah, just always would lose to scaling laws. And maybe we're at the end of scaling laws at training, but I actually think, you know, Hebbia and now OpenA…”
Pishevar: Quantum and AI merger will cure all diseases within 10 years
“Quantum and AI, even at the chipset level, are going to merge. And then that's going to revolutionize all aspects of our lives. We'll find cures to every known disease known to mankind within, I would say, the next 10 years.”
Pishevar: Humans will achieve 150-plus year lifespan within 20 years
“Don't die in the next 20 years, because we're gonna reach a point of longevity where you'll be able to help, live a healthy life for 150 plus years.”
Shulman: Suno will survive even if it loses copyright lawsuit
“If this lawsuit goes to trial and we lose, it's obviously not good for us. The company, the company's not dead, but it's obviously not good for us. I don't think that's likely.”
Guy Podjarny: Manual coding will become an edge case within 10 years
“And so I think the coding piece of software developers' work will diminish substantially. I think in 10 years' time, coding would be, ah, ah, very much alive and well, but it would be the edge case. It would be the thing that you do because, you know, like, it…”
Villig: Existing ride-hailing networks are the best go-to-market for autonomous vehicles
“Currently, I think the most contrarian view that I have not seen any investors really buy into so far is that these ride-hailing companies are really gonna be the best way for these self-driving cars to come to market.”
Grimm: Anduril will absolutely not hire to meet demographic quotas
“No, absolutely not. And anybody who tells you that they are, I think, like, I think is misguided.”
McCabe: Most VC AI investments will underperform the S&P 500
“Most VC money is going to support a lot of excitement around AI and actually not do better than the S&P 500.”
Stebbings: Multi-stage entry prices will cut seed fund returns in half
“I actually think that they've come in with such efficiency that actually they've made it so much harder for the existing pure seed players. They've increased price. They've increased supply. I think you will see returns significantly denigrate. We all saw five…”
Maguire: China and the East will wildly outproduce West in munitions
“I think that over time, like in a war of production, the East will win. I think that China will just wildly outproduce munitions compared to the West.”
Cahn: ChatGPT Is Now a $3.4 Billion Revenue Business
“Definitely OpenAI. I mean, OpenAI has a brand, it has consumer distribution, it has product market fit with ChatGBT, which is a 3.4 billion dollar revenue business now. I think ChatGBT will definitely be around. Yeah, I think a bunch of the others will too for…”
Asparouhov: Eastern European nations will start leaving the EU
“I think what will probably happen is like, you see some of these countries actually start to leave the EU as Western Europe becomes more and more of a drag rather than a producer.”
Luan: Vertical integration pressure will merge model builders and chip makers
“That's my expectation. To me, like what's interesting about AI from a business side, right, is like it forces the question of like, what Companies or offerings are going to be bundled or integrated and which ones are going to get unbundled. And I actually thin…”
Emad Mostaque: Only 5 or 6 foundation model companies will survive
“I think that there's only going to be five or six foundation model companies in the world in three years, five years. I think it's going to be us, Nvidia, Google, Microsoft, OpenAI, and Meta, and Apple probably are the ones that train these models.”
Ryan: NYC will be the top tech startup hub in 15 years
“New York is killing it and will be the number one company clearly 15 years.”
Kevin Ryan: Miami Lacks Tech Talent and Will Not Become a Major Hub
“But I'm not seeing the tech talent in Miami, and I don't think it's going to get there.”
Lehmann: Screenless dedicated AI inference computers will be in every home
“I think when it comes to AI and personal AI, we may be at a moment in time where there is an opportunity for a new computer, a new type of computer that we may see in every home. A computer that runs your own personal AI on a chip that does not have to be as p…”
Lehmann: AI startups created today will grow larger than tech incumbents
“There will be companies born today that will be larger in the field of AI. Then the companies that are the largest companies that we have today, and they will start as toys and they will start as something that is probably overlooked and something that is not …”
Stephens: Anduril Could Reach $100B With a Fraction of Lockheed's Revenue
“Andrew operates at higher margins, much faster growth rates. I think we could be worth Over a hundred billion dollars with a tiny fraction of Lockheed's revenue.”
Plantenga: Vinted will reach a $50 billion valuation within 10 years
“Fifty billion. Global platform fully integrated shipping and payment functionalities across every category. Amazon like marketplace dynamics across all categories plus new software solution businesses next to it.”
Samani: Donald Trump will be in jail before the 2024 election
“My assumption is he will be in jail before the election, so I don't know if you can.”