The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 404 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 35 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Chollet: AGI Codebase Will Be Under 10,000 Lines on 1980s Compute
“I do believe that, you know, when you create a GI retrospectively, it will turn out that it's a code base that's less than 10,000 lines of code. And that if you had known about it back in the 19 eighties, you could have done a GI back then using the computer r…”
Musk: Digital superintelligence will arrive by 2026 for sure
“Like, I think we're quite close to digital superintelligence. It may happen this year, and if it doesn't happen this year, next year for sure. Digital superintelligence is defined as smarter than any human at anything.”
Tom Blomfield says today's software engineering jobs will vanish within 10 years
“But the conclusion of all of that, I think, is that software engineering jobs of today, I think, will not exist in five or 10 years.”
Altman: Startups founded today will produce future trillionaires
“I bet there's some future trillionaires sitting in this room, and I would bet that the startups created today will be much more valuable, much more impactful than startups of the past”
Hassabis predicts AGI will arrive around 2030
“Depending on what your AGI timeline is, You know, mine's like, 20, 30 or something like this.”
Heller: AI startups face mass extinction as enterprise pilots fail to convert
“A lot of those pilots are not converting to real revenue, and there's going to be a mass extinction event as a lot of pilot revenue, it's like, instead of ARR, it's like PRR, like Pilot Recurring Revenue, or something like that, or not even recurring, just Pil…”
Altman predicts humanity will achieve unimaginable superintelligence within 20 years
“Look, there, there's a lot you know, in 10 or 20 years, unless something goes hugely wrong, we'll have, like, unimaginable super intelligence, and I'm very excited to see how that goes.”
Musk predicts Mars will be self-sustaining within roughly 30 years
“I think we'll have enough mass transferred to Mars within like roughly 30 years to make Mars self-sustaining, such that Mars can continue to grow and prosper, even if the resupply shifts from Earth stop coming.”
Musk: There is a 10% to 20% chance AI causes annihilation
“I think it most likely will be a good outcome. I guess I'd sort of agree with Jeff Hinton that maybe it's a 10 to 20% chance of annihilation. But look on the bright side, that's 80 to 90% probability of a great outcome.”
Altman: AI progress could compound over next nine years toward superintelligence
“I can see a path where the work we are doing just keeps compounding, and the rate of progress we've made Over the last three years, continuous for the next three, or six, or nine, or whatever. You know, nine years would be, like, 3500 days, or whatever. If we …”
Musk in 2016: Human travel to Mars could happen by 2026
“It's a meaningful number of people going to Mars I. I think this is potentially something that can be accomplished in about 10 years maybe sooner , maybe nine years.”
Huang: Physical AI will be NVIDIA's next $100B business within 10 years
“Likely this will be one of the largest industries in the world, and it'll take longer than a couple, two, three years. It'll take less than 10, and so this will be our next hundred billion dollar business.”
Tan predicts everyone on Earth will have a personal AI by 2027
“And then I guarantee you like this time next year, like everyone's going to be saying what you heard here first, which is like every single person on the planet will have their own personal AI.”
Hassabis: AI might solve a Millennium Prize math problem within years
“When I say just, we're now talking about just like solving the Riemann hypothesis or something. This would be obviously amazing. Well, one of the Millennium Prize problems, and maybe we're a couple of years out from doing that.”
Chollet: Symbolic Models Will Eventually Replicate and Outperform Deep Learning
“And so everything you're doing with machine learning today, with parametric curves, we should be able to do it. With symbolic models in the future in a way that will be much, much closer to optimality. Much closer to optimality in the sense that you're going t…”
Chollet: AI in 50 Years Will Not Use Today's LLM Stack
“I personally don't think that machine learning or AI in 50 years is still going to be built on this stack.”
Hodak: Humans who will live to 1,000 are likely alive today
“I think it is very possible that the first people to live to a thousand are alive right now. And I think it might be many more people than you think. It's not gonna be like one or two people on earth today.”
Cherny predicts AI will generally solve coding for everyone
“So continuing to trace the exponential, I think what will happen is coding will be generally solved for everyone. And I think today coding is practically solved, you know, for me, and I think it'll be the case for everyone you know, regardless of domain.”
Cherny: The software engineer title will disappear as roles become builders
“I think we're gonna start to see the title software engineer go away, and I think it's just gonna be maybe builder, maybe product manager, maybe we'll keep the title as kind of a vestigial thing, but the work that people do, it's not just gonna be coding, it's…”
Steinberger: 80% of consumer apps will disappear due to AI agents
“I think 80% of them are going away.”
Skates: Basic AI visibility will rapidly commoditize into free lead generation
“I think the real business has to be downstream of AI visibility. It's a valuable, there's value in it, like, you know, just like there's value in, in the SEO world, but it's so easy to do. You know, we did it, you know, as I mentioned in, in, in probably more …”
Fisher: AGI is extremely likely to arrive within two to three years
“Cause it's extremely likely that we will have AGI in the next few years. Maybe it's not two, maybe it's three.”
Masad: Traditional SaaS application software value will drop to near zero
“My prediction is that all application software will go to zero. In other words, software will be dirt cheap, that no one will be making money on the traditional type of SaaS software.”
Kaplan: AI swarms will eventually replicate entire scientific communities
“Eventually we imagine AI models or millions of AI models perhaps working together will be able to do the work That whole human organizations can do. They'll be able to do the kind of work that the entire scientific community currently does.”
Musk: Humanoid robots will outnumber all other robots combined tenfold
“There's gonna be so many humanoid robots, and robots of all sizes and shapes, but my prediction is that there will be more humanoid robots by far than all other robots combined, by maybe an order of magnitude, like a big difference.”
Musk: Augmented Human Intelligence Will Probably Be One Billionth of Digital Intelligence
“Human intelligence, even assuming a significant increase in human population and intelligence augmentation, like massive intelligence augmentation, where like everyone has an IQ of a thousand type of thing. Even in that circumstance collective human intelligen…”
Tom Blomfield says AI will fulfill surging global demand for software
“Like I could easily see the demand goes up 10 X or a hundred X, who knows, but I just think the AI is getting so good that you just won't have humans fulfilling that demand in anything but the most niche of niche cases.”
McGrew: LLMs have entered a pure scaling regime toward AGI
“And now that that has been cracked at this point, I think we actually have a very clear path to just focus on scaling. You know, we were, you know, talking about that you know, the zero to one part, that's not about scaling. I think there's a really strong cas…”
Altman: AI will enable someone to solve all of physics
“The fact that somebody else, I really believe, is now gonna go solve all the physics with this stuff, like, I'm so excited to be alive for that.”
Doctorow: There will never be another Facebook
“The big, big upsides are not creating another Facebook because there won't be another Facebook. The big, big upside is creating the thing that happens once Facebook has been torn down.”
Rossmann predicts Harvard will soon be recognized primarily as a luxury good
“Harvard is going to be more obviously recognized as a luxury good, as an expensive purchase that works for the elites. And it's something that if you can afford to get your kids there and you can afford to not focus on hard skills, then great. You've purchased…”
Brockman: Scaling neural nets will unlock qualitatively new behaviors
“And I think that what that's going to unlock is you're going to be able to scale up these models and you're going to see qualitatively different behaviors from what you've seen so far.”
Dean: Specialized inference hardware will surpass general GPUs and TPUs
“I think, ah, you're gonna see more and more, ah high performance and low energy inference hardware systems, because I think everyone is now realizing that inference is the key to making, you know, these agent-based systems be available to more and more people,…”
Jeff Dean: AI models will not have good taste in problem selection
“I think models are not necessarily going to be that good at it. So you're going to have people steering a lot of AI assisted computation in order to accomplish great things and more quickly. But that essence of what it is you want your models to do is the key …”
Jeff Dean: There is no impediment to fully automating ML model research
“There's no, ah, you know, real impediment to making that be a much more automated loop, where the model itself decides it's going to explore, or maybe with a nudge from some people, ah, at the various highest level, like, oh, why don't you try some new ideas a…”
Wang: Billions of people will have tailored personal superintelligences
“We believe that everybody in the world, you know, all the billions of people in the world are going to have a super intelligence that is adapted and tailored to them, that is, enables them to accomplish their goals, knows their context, and ultimately is an ex…”
Wang: AI tools will increase businesses on Meta to billions
“There's two hundred million businesses that are on Metis platforms today. We think that number should go to billions with this explosion of creativity and using AI tools”
Wang: Current AI models are powerful enough to drive major GDP expansion
“I truly believe these models are already just incredibly powerful. Like, they should be so powerful to fuel, you know many, many points of expansion of GDP growth, and I think it's, like, up to smart people with vision and ambition to make all that happen.”
Wang: In a decade, AI intelligence and agency will be abundant
“And so I think a decade looking back, it'll, it'll be obvious that intelligence became abundant and that agency became abundant.”
Altman: Startups will prevent AI power from concentrating in few companies
“In fact, if we are right that AI is going to be such a big change, startups will be much more important to making sure that The power of this technology gets widely distributed throughout the economy and society, and it's not just concentrated in a few compani…”
Altman: AI tool fluency will beat traditional experience for founders
“I would bet that this generally will cut against many years of experience in favor of people who have a lot of fluency with the tools.”
Altman: Next six months will match prior two years of AI progress
“I think there will, I think it will feel like the next six months is like maybe equivalent to the last two years of model progress, something like that.”
Altman: In 6.5 years, average person will use 500B tokens monthly
“If that happens again, which I think it probably will, then in another six and a half years, the average person uses, let's say, five hundred billion tokens a month, and the token leader uses a quadrillion, or quadrillions of tokens a month.”
Huang: Most software will be built agentically, elevating systems thinking
“In the case of software most software is going to be done agentically anyhow, so you have to be much more able to think abstractly about systems.”
Garry Tan: Context-aware consumer AI will become a $10B-$100B company
“I mean, this is a great example of like consumer AI that is almost certainly going to be a 10 or a hundred billion dollar company. That no one's built yet.”
Tan: AI token compute costs will drop drastically within two years
“I mean, basically because the frontier models are that good, like, you know, I think that in two years, like, That'll be a 100,000 and, you know, down to 10,000 and a thousand. I mean, basically these orders of magnitude are about to happen.”