The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 3,135 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 48 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Braima: Africa will hold one-third of global youth within seven years
“In seven years, Africa will be home to a third of the global population of youth.”
Braima: One in five internet users will be in Africa by 2050
“By twenty-fifty, one out of every five customers on the internet will be in Africa.”
Tobias: Kimoyo is a 'people renting' business, not software
“This is not, this is a people business where you're basically renting people. And for that reason, it doesn't fit my thesis and I'm out.”
Manus says five of her six African startup investments failed
“I've actually invested in six companies in Africa. Ok? Five went belly up.”
Tobias: Startups in foreign countries backed only by US VCs raise concerns
“I get a little concerned when I see only US VCs in an, in a foreign country.”
Hudson warns that heavy local capital in emerging markets is problematic
“We've had totally polar experiences. We've had some companies where we've had tons of local capital, and it's been highly problematic.”
Tobias predicts Kimoyo will exit for mid-double-digit millions, not $100M+
“I don't think it ends up being a billion dollar exit, or even a hundred million dollar exit. I think it ends up being a maybe mid double digits exit.”
Braima insists Kimoyo will become at least a $200 million business
“How do you not see that this is going to be like, you know, at least at the minimum, a couple hundred million dollar business?”
Blue Nile's online customization tool has not changed in 10 years
“Well, no, because they're, they already technically have a version and hasn't changed in 10 years.”
Gemist is raising a $3M seed round at a $15.5M post-money valuation
“We did convertible note for the pre-seed, I believe six million cap, and then seed round was 3,000,011 and a half post, and this one is 15 and a half post.”
Charles Hudson: The winning playbook in vertical SaaS is building full stack
“The money in vertical sass is full stack. Like, that's the playbook, like, you do it all.”
Madeline Fraser: Passing on Gemist over cap table concerns is short-sighted
“You know, I think that that's a little bit short-sighted in my mind, right? Not really talking through that or having enough time to sit down with them and sort of say, hey, let's, let's think about what this could look like in the future.”
Yin: The core idea and tailored messaging matter more than pitch execution
“Well, I think my challenge is I fund so many companies with terrible pitches that it's actually only partly the pitch, but also the actual idea and the messaging again catered towards the right investor is what matters more.”
Stahl: HILOS holds exclusive deal with the world's largest 3D printer
“We have incredible partners that the largest, most industrially scaled, three D printing partner in the world that we have an exclusive relationship with.”
Stahl: Revenue multiples are inappropriate for valuing seed-stage startups
“I think revenue multiples for a seed round is too early. That's more of a series A conversation.”
Stahl: AI-driven on-demand footwear completely disintermediates traditional shoe brands
“It completely disintermediates brands. In a way that's pretty significant for the industry.”
Besenval: Natrion is piloting with 10 automakers and cell manufacturers
“We're currently piloting with 10 automakers and cell manufacturers where they're actually evaluating our materials and battery cells.”
Charles Hudson: EAPs are underutilized because employees fear HR retribution
“My impression is that EAPs have historically been underutilized because most people don't want to share the underlying issue they're dealing with HR out of fear of retribution or consequences”
Jillian Manus: Ginger, Hurdle, and Kaiser already have mental health video libraries
“I invest a lot in this space and I know that there are a lot of companies like Ginger and Hurdle and a number of other ones that have this content. Just Kaiser, even the healthcare systems, has a whole library of these exactly looking like this.”
Jillian Manus: Stigma is a feature, not a company
“That's not a company. That's a feature. Like, that company could put it into Slack.”
Charles Hudson: Precursor avoids Employee Assistance Program investments like the plague
“We've done a lot in mental health. We've also done a ton in the employer benefits channel. And the one thing I've tried to avoid like the plague is EAP.”
Jillian Manus: Stigma's $9 million pre-money valuation is very frothy
“I think that nine pre is very, very frothy.”
Jillian Manus: Founders should stay silent if they don't know an answer
“Every founder should know, don't say anything. If you don't know something, don't say anything.”
Ariana Vargas: Sequoia advised Stigma against pursuing the B2B HR path
“I went to San Francisco and met with Sequoia and they were like, this is a bad path. Don't go down it.”
Hudson: Investors lose money backing product directions founders aren't focused on
“A good way to lose money as an investor is to fall in love with something that the founder is not as focused on as you are. So for me personally, I'm out”
Yin: Consumer startups need hundreds of thousands of users for seed rounds
“The expectation when you go out and raise that seed is in the hundreds of thousands of users at a minimum.”
Hudson: Many bad accelerators prey on inexperienced founders
“No, I just have seen like a lot of accelerators that don't, they prey on founders who don't know better. They hear an accelerator and they think it's going to be of the quality of what Neil and others do, and like, it's Better to just call them bad than questi…”
Kamenetsky: Facebook ads have changed forever and won't get full spend
“Facebook has forever changed, and so we're never gonna go back in there full force.”
Qleek founder claims they would have raised heavily during NFT boom
“Like, if we would have survived COVID, or if COVID didn't happen, the NFT thing would have happened, and then we would have raised so much money.”
DotCal will become a billion-dollar company via shared scheduling
“We're gonna look back in a few years and be like, oh, dot cow became a billion dollar company because of shared.”
Dotcal's absolutely ridiculous valuation is going to get even more ridiculous
“And by the way, the valuation is ridiculous. It's absolutely ridiculous, but it's going to be even more ridiculous.”
Smith: Organic monocropping strips soil and does not guarantee soil health
“You can be an organic farmer and plant the same crops year after year after year, and that is stripping the soil. Just because you're organic doesn't mean you're focused on soil health.”
Yin: DTC builds early CPG data, but scale requires retail wins
“Direct to consumer is good for getting started and getting data. It's good for you to be able to then Take this data and go to Whole Foods and say, look, this is your audience, and these are the numbers I'm doing. But from a scale perspective, you have to be a…”
Wheaton: Dressed is raising $1.5M to scale peer-to-peer rental model
“We're raising 1.5 million to scale our peer-to-peer model that is more efficient and more scalable than Rent the Runway.”
Wheaton: Wardrobe and Pickle aren't truly peer-to-peer and hold centralized inventory
“A lot of the examples that I've seen, for example, wardrobe or pickle, a lot of these very recent platforms that are popping up are not actually entirely peer-to-peer. They call themselves peer-to-peer, but they still have centralized closets where you pick up…”
Medina: Automakers lacking vehicle-to-grid tech will face massive competitive disadvantages
“All manufacturers are going to be V-IIG, like any car manufacturer in the future that doesn't have that is going to be at a significant competitive disadvantage compared to the ones that do.”
Medina: Grid fragmentation creates a massive moat for Tether's VPP software
“In the U S each grid has its own laws and its own regulations of how you operate and in Europe as well. So if you are a vehicle manufacturer, You would have to have software that knows where the vehicle is and changes the way you bid into the market and the wa…”
Hudson: Charge operators' demand for single software aggregators creates massive lock-in
“I don't believe these charge operators want five different software systems. They're gonna pick one. And if he can make it work, he has a chance to be an early winner and lock up a bunch of distribution that will be very difficult, if not impossible, for someo…”
Muccio: Only about 10% of demo day investment commitments convert to cash
“A lot of the investment that they get at demo day doesn't actually follow through. I want to say it's something like 10% actually ends up in the bank.”
Elizabeth Yin: Cold emails really do work for startup fundraising
“No, cold emails really do work. Not everyone will respond, but I think you will get some bites.”
Rushing into equal co-founder partnerships after brief dating is horrible
“The worst are the people who, like, think that you have to, and they do, like, two weeks of founder dating, and, you know, then become equal partners. It's horrible.”
Nadel: Tampax or o.b. can crush Aunt Flow on price
“I think that that's a better way to go, but then I'm worried about the competition, because a company like Tampax, or if they want the eco-solution OB, can crush her in terms of price.”