The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 3,135 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 48 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Luke Barkley Young: Outlines CAC dropped post-iOS update and remains profitable
“Post the iOS update, our CAC actually reduced, and it's continued to stay stable this year. So we're still first purchase profitable.”
Banister: Wist is well positioned to be AR's killer app
“If he executes well, and if the timing's right, and all of the pieces are lined up just right, you know, he's well positioned to have the killer app for AR. Like, I can't think of a better one, to be honest with you.”
Muccio: Pre-seed VCs must take bets on technology moonshots
“This is the point of Venture capital and investing at Prec, like it's to invest in technology. We're not going to know the, this is the moonshot pitch. And I think those are the pitches that you have to make the bets on. And it's, there's no way to de-risk it.…”
Vigo reveals he owns only 14% equity in Bevz
“So I have 14%. Our founding team together has about 70%, so it's a combo of me, my co-founder Victor, and my CTO.”
Yin: Startups Die From Overeating, Never Starvation
“Startups never really die of starvation. They always die from overeating.”
Hershberg: PE backer gained stake by forgiving $2M in brewery debt
“What they did, so they basically forgave two million dollars worth of debt that was owed to the to them from the brewery to set the valuation. And then that's how we kind of got things started. So they didn't put any new money into it for this particular round…”
Hershberg: Private equity controls three of Amateur Golf Society's five board seats
“So there's five board seats. There's three for the private equity guys, one for myself and one for the group of fellow Cornellians.”
Bsharah: PE offered VCs an observer seat and 18-month CEO retention guarantee
“They essentially said, They would give us a board observer seat and promise not to fire the CEO for 18 months.”
Commercializing a hardware startup typically requires $7M, says Charles Hudson
“We do a lot of hardware, and I don't know why, it always seems to take seven million dollars to get to a commercial product.”
HILOS projects $3M in revenue next year, $16M the following year
“Right now we're looking at three million in revenue next year from the brands we currently have signed and under contract, and we believe we have a very strong pathway to get to sixteen million the following year.”
Besenval: Natrion's components eliminate fire risk, enabling 450-mile range and 15-minute charges
“The suite of patented battery components that we make eliminate fire risk and they can make an electric car drive as far as 450 miles on a single charge. We can charge in as little as 15 minutes.”
Besenval: Pure ceramic solid-state battery tech will take 10 years to scale
“Probably more than several is the thing. We're talking about millions and millions of EVs as soon as twenty-thirty, right? So really we need a solution in kind of the next five years. So yeah, there are companies that have solutions that are going to be fantas…”
Besenval: Natrion's battery achieved 400 cycles with under two percent degradation
“We've gone out to 400 cycles with less than two percent degradation, and we have the columbic efficiencies we need to get to a thousand”
Elizabeth Yin: Founders should set terms individually and raise valuations progressively
“I also think you should not wait for a lead. And you should just set terms and pull people in like one-on-one. Increase the valuation as you go along. Because as you need money less, you can increase that valuation.”
Ariana Vargas pauses Stigma's VC fundraising to protect user trust
“The problem and the sort of bad news for today's call is that it takes time to earn trust, and the moment we take on a big amount of capital, we understand that you all as venture capitalists have returns to make and growth targets to hit, and I won't trade on…”
Yin: Social shopping apps cannot straddle private sharing and broad discovery
“I think it's hard to actually be both of those. I think you are either one or the other, so if you're in the small group, it's all about small groups... Or you're more in the Pinterest category... But I feel like trying to message both is going to be very chal…”
Gutwein: DTC Has Not Figured Out How to Scale Post-Adpocalypse
“I think that overall DTC as an industry has not figured out how to scale like the new channels now that they can't spend VC dollars on Facebook and Google spend.”
Yin: Performance marketers outperform food experts in F&B startups
“The entrepreneurs in this space who are really good at food and beverage tend not to do as well as the entrepreneurs who come into it as, like, performance marketers.”
Allen: The advice to never build for investors is bullshit
“You know, I've had investors tell me you never want to build a company for investors. That's bullshit. Investors are going to invest in what they like. And if they're the only ones that can provide you access to capital, then you have no choice. Otherwise your…”
Muccio: Survey showed only 8% of Black applicants received federal relief funds
“A survey published in May found that only eight percent of African-American business owners that had applied for federal relief or assistance actually received the money.”
Schmorak: Hostfully raised more venture capital because of its PPP loan
“No, I actually think we raised more money from investors because of it.”
Trenda: The driver of Twitter's success is what makes it awful
“And it led me to the conclusion that the thing that makes Twitter successful is the very thing that makes it awful.”
Dufu: The Cru will reach 200,000 members and $100M revenue in 5 years
“So five years from now, we're at 200,000 members. So that gets us to, you know, a hundred million”
Hudson: Building an Independent Business Matters More Than Forecasting Acquirers
“If it's a good business, you'll have lots of opportunity, like, it's more important to build a really good business that has the ability to remain independent until something else happens than it is to, every time I've tried to forecast, oh, so-and-so company …”
Daraby: Most luxury brands are elitist and reject average-sized consumers
“Most luxury brands are incredibly elitist and horrible, and they don't want the average American wearing their clothing.”
Madho: Brand dilution comes from discounting, not plus-size customers
“Brand dilution doesn't come from someone chubby like me wearing their brand. It comes from the fact that most people are waiting until it goes on sale before they buy it.”
Madho dislikes 'segregated' investing that limits women to female-focused funds
“One of the things that, that's happened is I go to a lot of events that only have female investors or investors that are specifically looking for female founded companies. And this is a good thing, but I also don't like segregated investors. I want bro money t…”
Lee: Building a Great Startup Isn't About Condensing Your Ideas
“Building a startup isn't about condensing your ideas. It's not about building a startup is not about saying, I can't do that. Right? Building and shooting for something great is, yeah, we can do that. Why not? And you give it a shot. My point is basically, you…”
Andrew Hoagland says G2 Crowd pays for software reviews weekly
“Every week I get an email from G two crowd paying me to write reviews.”
Michael Hyatt predicts Vetd will reach $40M valuation at $1M revenue
“These guys get any traction. The valuation is going to be at 40, fifty million. I'm telling you. I know these enterprise companies are gonna help with bananas. He gets a million of revenues, it's gonna be 20 x, 30 x.”
Wang: Boundless spends over $400 to acquire a $500 customer
“Out of 500 dollars our customer acquisition cost is a little over 400 dollars.”
Xiao Wang: Boundless loses money on every new customer upfront
“I can be blunt and say, look, we are not, we are losing money per customer. And that's ok. And because we are, we believe that if they have a great experience, that, you know, they will come back to us for future immigration needs.”
Galoi: US is poor agtech market due to USDA subsidies
“One of the things we've realized over the past two years is the United States is not a fertile market for agriculture tech. And that's primarily because the USDA gives so many subsidies that it's still cheaper for a farmer to cull their animals because they're…”
Spencer Shulam: WeDo can predict whether a student will fail a class
“We, for example, can even today start predicting if a student's going to fail a class within the first few days of signing up for our product because we're able to see they're not marking off certain assignments, and we know other people who are just like them…”
Chapman: Hykso can become the next Strava or Peloton
“I think there's a future here. I think you can become something like a Strava or a Peloton.”
Jonathan Kumar projects Samaritan capping out as a $25M annual business
“I think when we win, this is a 15 to twenty-five million dollar a year business, so it's not in a stratosphere in terms of VCs and Facebook-type valuations, so we definitely believe there are returns to be had.”
Michael Hyatt believes VCs avoid boasting about profiting off homelessness programs
“I don't see any VC wanting to say to their investors that they made all this money off of this type of program.”
Brandel: Hearken has a 70% customer retention rate
“So right now it's about 70% we retain. And what we've learned from the 30% that have been churning is actually the reason they stop working with us is because someone moves on from their job.”
Hudson: Zebra startups return capital via profits rather than IPOs or M&A
“The model is more that, like, there ought to be a way for you to get a return on your money that doesn't require a gigantic IPO. There are ways through the profitable operations of the business for me to return capital. Might be capped at a three X, but there'…”
Nadel: Subscription flight models will inevitably suffer adverse selection from super-users
“Ultimately, people who are traveling one or two times a month are going to say, eh, this isn't worth it. I think that this kind of pricing model lends itself to the super users over time. That's who's going to gravitate towards it, and the ones who aren't usin…”
Mohnot: SkyHi isn't Amazon Prime because high usage hurts margins
“Amazon Prime is geared to you buying more Amazon products. Like, Amazon Prime, they sell you a yearly subscription with the hopes, and Amazon Prime customers buy a lot more shit on Amazon. Here, if you fly more, that sucks for you.”
Hyatt: Offsite events have virtually nothing to do with building company culture
“Culture is built with 75 things. One of those 75 may be this infrequently. It doesn't have anything to do with really building culture.”
Brownridge: DogSpot projects $100M ARR with 10,000 units in five years
“So we're able to reach a hundred million annual recurring revenue with 10,000 houses out. We have a five-year plan to get there.”
Hudson: New fantasy gaming formats always hit expensive paid acquisition traps
“The thing I can't get over is everyone I've met who's tried to do a new format eventually runs into the paid acquisition monster, and it just ends up being really, really expensive.”
Hyatt: Industry praise is meaningless unless partners actually write investment checks
“It's really easy to say, I love you, baby. But it's much, much harder to actually cut you a check. If they love what you're doing, people are greedy with their money. They would want to make money on it.”
Dixon predicts consumers will eventually buy everything from automated self-service machines
“So it's a matter of time before we're buying everything out of self-service machines.”