The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 95 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Ohanian: 90% of gamers will only play games that pay them
“In five years, no one, 90% of people will not play a game unless they are being properly valued for that time.”
Coogan: Startup will demo an armed humanoid robot within six months
“I was predicting that within the next six months, I think that there will be a startup that will take one of these humanoid robots Even if it's tele-operated, give it an AR-fifteen, like a machine gun or a rifle, and just do a demo of like what this would look…”
Phan: YouTube will acquire TikTok and IPO at $500B within 12 months
“I'm making a prediction. YouTube is going to buy TikTok. They're going to spin out YouTube. It's going to go public, five hundred billion dollar company. Done. Clip this. Editor, clip this for when this happens in the next 12 months.”
Liu: OpenAI and Anthropic have over $80 billion in combined revenue
“Take opening Ionanthropic alone, right? Let's just say they have a combined revenue probably of like eighty million plus, right? Or eighty billion, sorry, plus right now up from like basically zero a few years ago.”
Brown: Codex can generate complete working mobile apps from one prompt
“For this, for now, you still need to have a Mac, and you need to have Xcode downloaded, but it can one-shot mobile apps, like full mobile apps.”
Kerner: Facebook Marketplace APIs Allow Third-Party Apps to Be Built
“I've already looked into it. Don't tell me the API permissions don't allow for it because they do.”
Schneider: ChatGPT and Perplexity rely on Google's index instead of crawling
“ChatGPT and OpenAI and Perplexity, like, they're all built on the back of this, like, search engine Google, right? Google has spent the last, whatever, 30 years or 25 years basically indexing the entire, like, internet. Imagine, like, Perplexity and ChatGPT, w…”
Al-Abdullah: Every 3% increase in net revenue retention doubles company valuation
“Every three percent increase in net revenue retention doubles the company's valuation.”
YouTube's Algorithm Does Not Weight Comments for Video Performance
“Comments have no algorithmic waiting. Like YouTube don't look at comments for video performance, but it's a great indication of, Hey, like, especially with an audience like you have here that is Quite like a tribe of people into similar things.”
Lavingia: Engineers and designers are 2-3x cheaper than 6 months ago
“Like engineers are cheaper. They're easier to hire. Designers are cheaper, easier to hire. And that's all I need. I don't actually don't need anything else. Those are the two most valuable, you know, resources on the planet. And now they're, you know, they're …”
Friedberg: Most commercial wine from Gallo and Constellation contains added flavorings
“In fact, people don't realize this, but most of the commercial wine you buy today is actually flavored. It's not just the grapes. So everyone from Constellation Brands to Gallo, they take grapes, they turn it into ethanol and water and flavor, and then they ad…”
Ohanian: DAO participation will be commonplace within five years
“I think everyone in five years will participate in a DAO. They won't know it necessarily. I don't think that branding is, is whack. But they won't care. Right. User experience triumphs over everything. So yeah, I think it will be pretty commonplace. Not, maybe…”
Shipper: OpenAI and Anthropic do not really offer fine-tuning anymore
“In that case, like, you have to use open-source models, because none of the major model companies, or at least OpenAnthropic, don't really do fine-tuning anymore.”
Regulated sectors are legally barred from sending data to cloud AI APIs
“Healthcare, legal, finance, they have money, they have problems AI can solve, but they legally cannot send their data to a cloud API.”
Finn: OpenClaw hardcodes models and requires framework updates for new releases
“OpenClaw, like every model is like hard coded in to OpenClaw. So you have to like ask them to switch models. And when new models come out, you have to wait for OpenClaw to update with that newest model.”
Henry: OpenAI owns OpenClaw and will tighten its security
“I think now OpenAI own OpenClaw. The security is going to get a lot tighter. Things are going to be a lot, lot smoother.”
Image quality does not degrade across multi-turn AI conversational edits
“The model doesn't like the image quality doesn't get worse as you like do a multi-turn edit. So like you don't need to get everything right on the first edit.”
Courtney: Hormozi spent $450,000 daily leading up to launch
“He was sending, he was spending, he said he spent like 450 thousand dollars per day on marketing in general in the lead up to the event.”
Jason Calacanis invested in three Swell AI competitors that will all fail
“Jason Calacanis has invested in like three companies that are like exact competitors of us. And we're just laughing because I was like how many tap bats can you get with this? It's not going to work.”
Kagan bets his new DocuSign alternative will make $1M within a year
“And then I believe, I would bet, I'll bet a million dollars, it'll make a million dollars in a year.”
Smith: OpenAI has reached $1 billion in enterprise revenue
“There's the reason that OpenAI has a billion dollars in enterprise revenue today. Out of nowhere, quote unquote, out of nowhere.”
Spartz: Average person only comprehends 10% of podcast or book sentences
“I measure this quite a bit, and the average person is actually only listening to about 10% of all of the actual sentences. In a given podcast or book that they're reading.”
Dunn: Mood disorders affect approximately one in five entrepreneurs
“Three percent of the general population has some form of mood disorder, most commonly bipolar disorder. We think that index is seven to one in entrepreneurs. So we'd be talking about one in five”
Goldberg: Insurance companies will not enter crypto due to volatility
“Insurance companies don't like insuring volatile things. Right. And so they're not going to move into the space, but I think the big question of like, how do we actually solve this problem is how do you assess the intrinsic value of a digital asset, which is a…”
Bloom: Twitter's $25B Buyout Debt Carries Massive Interest Obligations
“There's twenty-five billion dollars of debt sitting on the business now, and that debt has interest rates on it that aren't super low. And in an environment where so far the, you know, the baseline rate is rising right now, it's actually going to be a shitload…”
Isenberg: Aaron Levie and Brian Chesky privately consider Web3 a sham
“You know, and we were talking about this earlier, like Aaron Aaron Levy and Brian Chesky were, are kind of talking about how web three is, you know, basically a sham. That's basically what they're saying.”
Greg Isenberg: Twitter Stock Will Be Flat at $43.57 in 2026
“And then, five years from now, I think it's exact, it's exactly where we are today. It's like, 43, 57, or whatever.”
Linton: GPT-5.3 Codex has a context window of roughly 200k tokens
“Five, three, they talk about large context, but it's not a headline feature, and I actually went back and forth with it to get it to actually give me a number, and the number's around 200,000 tokens, which is not that impressive.”
Finn: Anti-prompt-injection skills will launch within two weeks
“I'm sure I'm very positive in the next week or two, there'll be official skills out there that like handle prompt injection from email, prompt injection from tweets and replies.”
Schneider: Tally's ChatGPT referral traffic plummeted after a model update
“A great example of this is the Tally founder has this graph where it's like, absolute liftoff, right? It's going crazy. GPT-V drops, they, like, it changes the entire search algorithm within ChatGPT, and their referral from that, their, like, basically referra…”
Riley Brown: Every Action in Notion Is Programmable Through MCP
“Google Docs makes it impossible, but Notion, literally every single action you could take in Notion is now programmable through this MCP. So an AI agent can just do those things directly if it has access to the Notion MCP server with all of those different too…”
Isenberg: PDF.ai generates at least $1M in annual revenue
“Just like, you know, the guy from, you know, pdf.ai, you know, I think this guy does, like, at least a million dollars a year in revenue, and it's just chat with any pdf document.”
Brown: Vibecode is the first app to build mobile apps directly on phones
“Yeah, I mean, ah, we just launched, ah, two days ago, launched Vibecode app, ah, which is the first ever app that builds mobile apps directly on your phone.”
Wilkinson: Standalone apps like Cal AI will face 100 clones within months
“There's tons of those, but there's going to be like a hundred of them in the app store in like two months. And then Cal AI will not be able to charge what they are.”
Azut: Most skilled trades workers will retire in a couple of years
“Most of the people in these trades jobs are actually retiring in a couple of years.”
Senra: Jimmy Buffett netted $75M yearly from licensing and $1.7B equity
“So if that's for a 15, 20 years, he's making like seventy five million a year in, in his pocket, just from the license agreements, right? Not including the equity value. So when he passed away, he gave his, the equity he had in his company to his wife, I think…”
Choi: Goli admits its aggressive TikTok creator prize incentives are unprofitable
“And Goalie has said themselves that this is not profitable, but it just makes it really hard to compete for these talking head creators because they're just all making videos for Goalie.”
Rubin: Luxury watch marketplaces charge 10% to 20% transaction fees
“Right now all these marketplaces, they take arbitrage to create the illusion of trust, right? So they take their 20% or 10% of the transaction because they are, you know, Chrono or other places where people buy watches.”
Schneider: Wind energy received 10x more investment than solar in 2023
“Something I found fascinating is that last year in 20, 23, there was 10 X the amount of investment in wind than there was in solar.”
Goldstein: Most employees spend their annual $2K–$3K L&D budget on conferences
“Conferences are actually where most people spend their learning and development budget at their companies. They're usually getting like two to 3000 dollars a year or something like that. These workers, these tech workers or any sort of worker, most of them spe…”
Ellis: Yohana will likely transition to fully AI-driven assistance
“And they use AI, and then they also have real people, which I feel like they'll probably switch to AI, fully AI in the near future.”
Isenberg: Venture capitalists dominated early Tech Twitter follower counts, not founders
“That's why people forget, but in tech Twitter, in the beginning, the people who had the most amount of followers weren't entrepreneurs. It was the VCs. Like the Fred Wilson's and, you know, all those guys.”
Cohen: Interacting with unbalanced follower-ratio accounts lowers Twitter reach
“Like if people have a follower to following ratio, that's really out of whack and you interact with them, it actually lowers your reputation and reach.”
Hamed: Research studies estimate Los Angeles needs over one million new homes
“Most studies or sort of research projects on even the city of LA would say LA needs like over a million new homes. And if you assume a starter home is 304 105 100,000 dollars that's a five hundred billion dollar opportunity.”
Forte: B2B Corporate Training Prices Typical Engagements at $3,000–$5,000 Per Employee
“These businesses that I'm starting to study, I mean, they just assume thousands of dollars per person. You know, every person, ah, say on a team that they're doing a training for, they're gonna estimate like three to 5000 that they're gonna make per person. Wh…”
Sharma: Beauty category brand loyalty is only around 14%
“I think it's only something like 14% of consumers will stay with a brand. They'll still try other things, but you know, the brand part comes in when you have things like an impact fund”
Spartz: 'Stay Home, Save Lives' Facebook frame was most viral ever
“I made in Two hours of work. I made a viral Facebook photo frame. It was like a circle around your head that said stay home, save lives, which if you're on Facebook, you would have seen it because hundreds of millions of people used it. And it was the most vir…”