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John Coogan

Co-Host, TBPN · 1 appearance on the record.

computed by AI from the episodes · how this works → · full disclaimer →

founderhostentertainerexecutiveinvestor@johncoogan ↗LinkedIn ↗johncoogan.com ↗

John Coogan is an entrepreneur who co-founded the meal replacement brand Soylent and the nicotine alternative company Lucy. He creates tech business video essays on YouTube and co-hosts TBPN, a daily live show covering technology, venture capital, and startups.

11statements → 5claims → 2claims resolved → 3.82/5average certainty → 2.27/5average debate potential →

1 supported 0 partly supported 1 contradicted 3 not yet assessed how the 5 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

4 predictions · 1 assertion · 2 opinions · 4 insights · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertion are the 5 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 2 are resolved, 3 are not yet assessed. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how John argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Assertion Supported
Coogan: Y Combinator funded its first defense tech cruise missile startup
“Famously Y Combinator just had their first defense tech company. It's a cruise missile company”
John Coogan Nov 11, 2024 ▶ 37:52 John Coogan (TBPN) gives you $1B BIG startup ideas

Their most notable contradicted claim

Prediction Didn’t hold up
Coogan: Startup will demo an armed humanoid robot within six months
“I was predicting that within the next six months, I think that there will be a startup that will take one of these humanoid robots Even if it's tele-operated, give it an AR-fifteen, like a machine gun or a rifle, and just do a demo of like what this would look…”
John Coogan Nov 11, 2024 ▶ 38:20 John Coogan (TBPN) gives you $1B BIG startup ideas

Expressed certainty vs assessment result

none yet certainty 1
none yet certainty 2
0% certainty 3
100% certainty 4
none yet certainty 5

weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet

How they sound: not measured why? →

We measure speaking style by listening to the audio itself, and a fair number needs at least 2,000 words from one person on tape we have measured. There is too little of John Coogan on measured tape to publish a rate. This says nothing about how they speak.

Everything John Coogan said on the Startup Ideas Podcast that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Prediction Didn’t hold up
Coogan: Startup will demo an armed humanoid robot within six months
“I was predicting that within the next six months, I think that there will be a startup that will take one of these humanoid robots Even if it's tele-operated, give it an AR-fifteen, like a machine gun or a rifle, and just do a demo of like what this would look…”
John Coogan Nov 11, 2024 ▶ 38:20 John Coogan (TBPN) gives you $1B BIG startup ideas
Opinion
Coogan: LLM Weights Are the Most Valuable Digital Assets After Bitcoin
“Other than that, the next most valuable digital asset has to be the weights to these large language models.”
John Coogan Nov 11, 2024 ▶ 3:25 John Coogan (TBPN) gives you $1B BIG startup ideas
Insight
Coogan: Stolen AI Model Weights Are Far More Usable Than Web Codebases
“If you stole the code base to Facebook, And you were like, okay, I have all the code to Facebook. I'm going to launch Facebook to.com. Well, you don't have any of the users. People aren't going to your website. It's not valuable, but with the large language mo…”
John Coogan Nov 11, 2024 ▶ 4:28 John Coogan (TBPN) gives you $1B BIG startup ideas
Insight
Coogan: AI Cybersecurity Is an Uncorrelated Way to Index on AI Growth
“I think there's something interesting and uncorrelated about doing cybersecurity for artificial intelligence companies where you could be indexed to the growth of artificial intelligence without directly needing, you know, some next benchmark to hit and you're…”
John Coogan Nov 11, 2024 ▶ 6:23 John Coogan (TBPN) gives you $1B BIG startup ideas
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2027
Coogan: Meta will generate dynamic ad text, video, and imagery
“Increasingly the text will be generated on the fly per user and a brand will just kind of show up with like, Hey, here's my product. Do your best to portray it in the great light. And Facebook is going to wind up generating video imagery, everything for your b…”
John Coogan Nov 11, 2024 ▶ 8:37 John Coogan (TBPN) gives you $1B BIG startup ideas
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2029
Coogan: SpaceX will launch robotic Mars missions at next transfer window
“When the next transfer window comes up, I think SpaceX is going to definitely try and launch a rocket to get there, but it'll probably just be like robots. And then the next one, they're going to launch like 10 rockets during that window.”
John Coogan Nov 11, 2024 ▶ 12:25 John Coogan (TBPN) gives you $1B BIG startup ideas
Opinion
Coogan: Kids' Devices Are a Bigger Opportunity Than Adult Dumb Phones
“Adults really can't go back to the dumb phone. It's just too much of a shift. And so a lot of the like dumb phone companies haven't done all that well, but I think that there's a bigger opportunity to go after The kids found.”
John Coogan Nov 11, 2024 ▶ 22:27 John Coogan (TBPN) gives you $1B BIG startup ideas
Insight
Coogan: Apple easily displaced Tile because Tile mimicked Apple's design aesthetic
“They've done this before with the tile app, which was a little tracker, a little Bluetooth tracker that you put on your keys. That business was doing phenomenally. Because everyone, no one wants to lose their keys. But the problem was, is that then Apple saw a…”
John Coogan Nov 11, 2024 ▶ 27:56 John Coogan (TBPN) gives you $1B BIG startup ideas
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2029
Coogan: Apple will never launch a device stripped of the App Store
“And then they're also never going to be in a situation where they, where apple says, Hey, we're launching a device and we deliberately nerfed it. So it doesn't have an app store. And you can't install Tik Tok or Roblox. Like they're just never going to do that…”
John Coogan Nov 11, 2024 ▶ 28:53 John Coogan (TBPN) gives you $1B BIG startup ideas
Insight
Coogan: DTC dog food outperforms because pets never churn from food fatigue
“So like dog food companies have been one of the few categories in direct to consumer that have done fantastically. And the reason is because your dog doesn't tell you if they're sick of their food. Like if you start a human food company, the human will be like…”
John Coogan Nov 11, 2024 ▶ 30:33 John Coogan (TBPN) gives you $1B BIG startup ideas
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Y Combinator funded its first defense tech cruise missile startup
“Famously Y Combinator just had their first defense tech company. It's a cruise missile company”
John Coogan Nov 11, 2024 ▶ 37:52 John Coogan (TBPN) gives you $1B BIG startup ideas

Appearances (1)

EpisodeDateSpeaking time
John Coogan (TBPN) gives you $1B BIG startup ideas Nov 11, 2024 36m
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