John Coogan analyzes the multi-year orbital iteration cycles required for SpaceX's Mars program.
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Coogan: Startup will demo an armed humanoid robot within six months
“I was predicting that within the next six months, I think that there will be a startup that will take one of these humanoid robots Even if it's tele-operated, give it an AR-fifteen, like a machine gun or a rifle, and just do a demo of like what this would look…”
Opinion
Coogan: LLM Weights Are the Most Valuable Digital Assets After Bitcoin
“Other than that, the next most valuable digital asset has to be the weights to these large language models.”
Insight
Coogan: Stolen AI Model Weights Are Far More Usable Than Web Codebases
“If you stole the code base to Facebook, And you were like, okay, I have all the code to Facebook. I'm going to launch Facebook to.com. Well, you don't have any of the users. People aren't going to your website. It's not valuable, but with the large language mo…”
Insight
Coogan: AI Cybersecurity Is an Uncorrelated Way to Index on AI Growth
“I think there's something interesting and uncorrelated about doing cybersecurity for artificial intelligence companies where you could be indexed to the growth of artificial intelligence without directly needing, you know, some next benchmark to hit and you're…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2027
Coogan: Meta will generate dynamic ad text, video, and imagery
“Increasingly the text will be generated on the fly per user and a brand will just kind of show up with like, Hey, here's my product. Do your best to portray it in the great light. And Facebook is going to wind up generating video imagery, everything for your b…”
Opinion
Coogan: Kids' Devices Are a Bigger Opportunity Than Adult Dumb Phones
“Adults really can't go back to the dumb phone. It's just too much of a shift. And so a lot of the like dumb phone companies haven't done all that well, but I think that there's a bigger opportunity to go after The kids found.”