John Coogan discusses the cultural shift in Silicon Valley toward backing defense technology startups.
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Coogan: Startup will demo an armed humanoid robot within six months
“I was predicting that within the next six months, I think that there will be a startup that will take one of these humanoid robots Even if it's tele-operated, give it an AR-fifteen, like a machine gun or a rifle, and just do a demo of like what this would look…”
Opinion
Coogan: LLM Weights Are the Most Valuable Digital Assets After Bitcoin
“Other than that, the next most valuable digital asset has to be the weights to these large language models.”
Insight
Coogan: Stolen AI Model Weights Are Far More Usable Than Web Codebases
“If you stole the code base to Facebook, And you were like, okay, I have all the code to Facebook. I'm going to launch Facebook to.com. Well, you don't have any of the users. People aren't going to your website. It's not valuable, but with the large language mo…”
Insight
Coogan: AI Cybersecurity Is an Uncorrelated Way to Index on AI Growth
“I think there's something interesting and uncorrelated about doing cybersecurity for artificial intelligence companies where you could be indexed to the growth of artificial intelligence without directly needing, you know, some next benchmark to hit and you're…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2027
Coogan: Meta will generate dynamic ad text, video, and imagery
“Increasingly the text will be generated on the fly per user and a brand will just kind of show up with like, Hey, here's my product. Do your best to portray it in the great light. And Facebook is going to wind up generating video imagery, everything for your b…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2029
Coogan: SpaceX will launch robotic Mars missions at next transfer window
“When the next transfer window comes up,
I think SpaceX is going to definitely try and launch a rocket to get there, but it'll probably just be like robots.
And then the next one, they're going to launch like 10 rockets during that window.”