The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Coogan: Startup will demo an armed humanoid robot within six months
“I was predicting that within the next six months, I think that there will be a startup that will take one of these humanoid robots Even if it's tele-operated, give it an AR-fifteen, like a machine gun or a rifle, and just do a demo of like what this would look…”
Coogan: LLM Weights Are the Most Valuable Digital Assets After Bitcoin
“Other than that, the next most valuable digital asset has to be the weights to these large language models.”
Coogan: Stolen AI Model Weights Are Far More Usable Than Web Codebases
“If you stole the code base to Facebook, And you were like, okay, I have all the code to Facebook. I'm going to launch Facebook to.com. Well, you don't have any of the users. People aren't going to your website. It's not valuable, but with the large language mo…”
Coogan: AI Cybersecurity Is an Uncorrelated Way to Index on AI Growth
“I think there's something interesting and uncorrelated about doing cybersecurity for artificial intelligence companies where you could be indexed to the growth of artificial intelligence without directly needing, you know, some next benchmark to hit and you're…”
Coogan: Meta will generate dynamic ad text, video, and imagery
“Increasingly the text will be generated on the fly per user and a brand will just kind of show up with like, Hey, here's my product. Do your best to portray it in the great light. And Facebook is going to wind up generating video imagery, everything for your b…”
Coogan: SpaceX will launch robotic Mars missions at next transfer window
“When the next transfer window comes up,
I think SpaceX is going to definitely try and launch a rocket to get there, but it'll probably just be like robots.
And then the next one, they're going to launch like 10 rockets during that window.”
Coogan: Kids' Devices Are a Bigger Opportunity Than Adult Dumb Phones
“Adults really can't go back to the dumb phone. It's just too much of a shift. And so a lot of the like dumb phone companies haven't done all that well, but I think that there's a bigger opportunity to go after The kids found.”
Coogan: Apple easily displaced Tile because Tile mimicked Apple's design aesthetic
“They've done this before with the tile app, which was a little tracker, a little Bluetooth tracker that you put on your keys. That business was doing phenomenally. Because everyone, no one wants to lose their keys. But the problem was, is that then Apple saw a…”
Coogan: Apple will never launch a device stripped of the App Store
“And then they're also never going to be in a situation where they, where apple says, Hey, we're launching a device and we deliberately nerfed it. So it doesn't have an app store. And you can't install Tik Tok or Roblox. Like they're just never going to do that…”
Coogan: DTC dog food outperforms because pets never churn from food fatigue
“So like dog food companies have been one of the few categories in direct to consumer that have done fantastically. And the reason is because your dog doesn't tell you if they're sick of their food. Like if you start a human food company, the human will be like…”