Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bloom: Terra Luna faces a real risk of a downward market spiral
“There's this swap mechanism where, If suddenly that yield starts to drop or if they're not able to maintain it, if people start selling rather than buying Luna, and if you have a bunch of people swapping It does create this market spiral, right? Like there is …”
Opinion
Bloom: STEPN rewards paid from new entrants resemble a Ponzi scheme
“The money is from new people buying into it and you're paying out rewards from new people buying in. That to me, I'm like, that's the definition of a Ponzi scheme when I look at it.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bloom: Over 10 Years, I Back Do Kwon and Terra Luna
“I actually don't know where I would land on the bet for one year from now, but 10 years from now, I like I like the Duquan side of it.”
Opinion
Bloom: Buying rental properties is mostly vanity and underperforms REITs
“Personally, I think that most people that buy rental properties, maybe this is a hot take, it's like a vanity thing, where they want to be able to flex and say that they own rental properties. Because the vast majority of my friends that have done that, it is …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bloom: Fed Will Pivot on Q2 Weakness, Fueling Growth Stock Rally
“My gut tells me that we're going to see like a pretty bad Q two from an economy standpoint. Like I wouldn't be shocked if we actually saw a negative growth and people panic. I think the fed will just like reverse course very quickly. Cause they've shown an unw…”
Opinion
Bloom: Top Creators Generate More Value for Twitter Than Billionaire Shareholders
“I have contributed more value to Twitter and like probably more innovation to Twitter than some random billionaire that owns a hundred million dollars of Twitter stock, like just full stop. I understand the product probably better. I understand the puts and ta…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bloom: TikTok is de facto controlled by Chinese government
“TikTok, which is Chinese owned, and de facto controlled by the Chinese government, by the way, and owns the data of literally every single teenager in the United States.”
Opinion
Bloom: Mobile internet gives Indian youth Ivy League-level opportunity access
“A kid on the streets in India that has access to his phone because of what Reliance Geo has done has a lot of the same opportunities today, and hopefully will continue to have even more as the kid who grew up in Greenwich and went to the Ivy League.”
Opinion
Bloom: Consumers do not care about privacy enough to sacrifice functionality
“One of my like general hot takes is that people don't actually care that much about privacy or like the average person doesn't really care that much about privacy and won't be willing to actually pay for it with worse functionality.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2031
Bloom: Psychedelic criminalization will be substantially reduced by 2031
“I do think in 10 years, it's hard to imagine the level of criminalization around psychedelics as exists today, and so if you were out in front of it and building
You should reap outsized rewards for doing that.”
Insight
Bloom: 'Second brain' tools create illusion of progress without actual work
“What I found in my own experience working with some of those things is that you end up moving a whole lot, but not actually making progress on things. You know, you like have this complicated productivity system, but you're not actually you know, creating prog…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bloom: Passive DCA into S&P and crypto dramatically beat his active bets
“I actually looked recently at my portfolio and like my five-year returns and the like smart investments I made like things where I thought I had edge or some sort of insight that was going to make it, you know, beat the market have underperformed the dumb doll…”
Opinion
Sahil Bloom: Most 200-page business books could be 2-5 page newsletters
“The entire like nonfiction book industry you know, business books, self-help books, like all of that stuff, the vast majority of those things are like 200 pages, but could have been said in a like two page or five page article or newsletter.”
Insight
Bloom: Business school is an easy default for those fearing career uncertainty
“I think like business school is like the it's like the uncertainty pick where like people aren't willing to tolerate the like uncertainty of what comes next at that first pivot point in their career. And business school is like the easy the easy answer.”
Assertion Supported
Bloom: FTX reached agreement to acquire BlockFi for up to $240M
“FTX is now, you know, under a definitive agreement to acquire block five for like, I don't really care how, you know, the CEO positioned it, you know, with the revolving line of credit, that's not really enterprise value. It's not like buying the equity, but l…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bloom: Breakout Web3 games will come from major AAA studios
“Yeah, I think they're going to have to create like a You know, like a separate entity that kind of allows it to be more free ownership and it'll come from one of those big studios. Not a, I actually don't think it'll be a new studio that raises money.”
Assertion Partly supported
Bloom: US Government Settled Ross Ulbricht's $193M Restitution Debt via Seized Bitcoin
“The U.S. Government has, like, basically secretly signed a deal with him that this one billion dollar bounty that they have found from a hack of the Silk Road, they are crediting towards his debts to the U.S. Government, and so he has now effectively paid back…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bloom: Ross Ulbricht Will Eventually Be Released From Prison
“I think there's, like, a broad case to be made that that he will get out at some point.”
Opinion
Bloom: Web3 Skews Too Far Toward Selling Over Building Products
“The web three space in general, I think has skewed too far to the cell and not enough to the build. So I think it's like a good call to arms in general to like throw a shot across the bow to the general industry of like, You know, there's so many of these comp…”
Assertion Supported
Bloom: US real estate depreciation lets multi-millionaires pay zero income tax
“We have friends who are like literally making multiple millions of dollars of cash income a year and paying zero dollars in taxes because they have all this depreciation off their real estate portfolios. It's like a well-known loophole that was created by the …”
Insight
Bloom: Holding excess cash and free time is a call option
“Cause to me, I think of cash as like a call option on future interesting opportunities. I like having more cash than anyone would say makes sense. And the reason I do that, I think of it as the same as free time, by the way, it's like now when something cool c…”
Insight
Bloom: High-revenue businesses with low customer affinity are prime unbundling targets
“Any business where people, there's tons of people and they made 1.7 billion dollars last year in revenue. And like any time that's the case and no one is proud to say they're affiliated with it, that seems like an opportunity just as a mental model.”
Opinion
Bloom: Carta's Equity Management Platform Sucks and Is Unintuitive
“Carta has tried to do it, but their platform sucks, man. When you go look at it and try to like manage your options on there, it's really not intuitive and non-educational to me.”
Opinion
Bloom: Pre-Seed and Seed Valuations Will Avoid Massive Changes
“The, like, pre-seed seed market, it's just so long-term, and it's, you know, ten-plus-year horizons that I don't see a massive change in the valuations.”