The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 144 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Bloom: Terra Luna faces a real risk of a downward market spiral
“There's this swap mechanism where, If suddenly that yield starts to drop or if they're not able to maintain it, if people start selling rather than buying Luna, and if you have a bunch of people swapping It does create this market spiral, right? Like there is …”
Bloom: STEPN rewards paid from new entrants resemble a Ponzi scheme
“The money is from new people buying into it and you're paying out rewards from new people buying in. That to me, I'm like, that's the definition of a Ponzi scheme when I look at it.”
Bloom: Over 10 Years, I Back Do Kwon and Terra Luna
“I actually don't know where I would land on the bet for one year from now, but 10 years from now, I like I like the Duquan side of it.”
Bloom: Buying rental properties is mostly vanity and underperforms REITs
“Personally, I think that most people that buy rental properties, maybe this is a hot take, it's like a vanity thing, where they want to be able to flex and say that they own rental properties. Because the vast majority of my friends that have done that, it is …”
Bloom: Fed Will Pivot on Q2 Weakness, Fueling Growth Stock Rally
“My gut tells me that we're going to see like a pretty bad Q two from an economy standpoint. Like I wouldn't be shocked if we actually saw a negative growth and people panic. I think the fed will just like reverse course very quickly. Cause they've shown an unw…”
Bloom: Top Creators Generate More Value for Twitter Than Billionaire Shareholders
“I have contributed more value to Twitter and like probably more innovation to Twitter than some random billionaire that owns a hundred million dollars of Twitter stock, like just full stop. I understand the product probably better. I understand the puts and ta…”
Bloom: TikTok is de facto controlled by Chinese government
“TikTok, which is Chinese owned, and de facto controlled by the Chinese government, by the way, and owns the data of literally every single teenager in the United States.”
Bloom: Mobile internet gives Indian youth Ivy League-level opportunity access
“A kid on the streets in India that has access to his phone because of what Reliance Geo has done has a lot of the same opportunities today, and hopefully will continue to have even more as the kid who grew up in Greenwich and went to the Ivy League.”
Bloom: Consumers do not care about privacy enough to sacrifice functionality
“One of my like general hot takes is that people don't actually care that much about privacy or like the average person doesn't really care that much about privacy and won't be willing to actually pay for it with worse functionality.”
Bloom: Psychedelic criminalization will be substantially reduced by 2031
“I do think in 10 years, it's hard to imagine the level of criminalization around psychedelics as exists today, and so if you were out in front of it and building
You should reap outsized rewards for doing that.”
Bloom: 'Second brain' tools create illusion of progress without actual work
“What I found in my own experience working with some of those things is that you end up moving a whole lot, but not actually making progress on things. You know, you like have this complicated productivity system, but you're not actually you know, creating prog…”
Bloom: Passive DCA into S&P and crypto dramatically beat his active bets
“I actually looked recently at my portfolio and like my five-year returns and the like smart investments I made like things where I thought I had edge or some sort of insight that was going to make it, you know, beat the market have underperformed the dumb doll…”
Sahil Bloom: Most 200-page business books could be 2-5 page newsletters
“The entire like nonfiction book industry you know, business books, self-help books, like all of that stuff, the vast majority of those things are like 200 pages, but could have been said in a like two page or five page article or newsletter.”
Bloom: Business school is an easy default for those fearing career uncertainty
“I think like business school is like the it's like the uncertainty pick where like people aren't willing to tolerate the like uncertainty of what comes next at that first pivot point in their career. And business school is like the easy the easy answer.”
Bloom: FTX reached agreement to acquire BlockFi for up to $240M
“FTX is now, you know, under a definitive agreement to acquire block five for like, I don't really care how, you know, the CEO positioned it, you know, with the revolving line of credit, that's not really enterprise value. It's not like buying the equity, but l…”
Bloom: Breakout Web3 games will come from major AAA studios
“Yeah, I think they're going to have to create like a You know, like a separate entity that kind of allows it to be more free ownership and it'll come from one of those big studios. Not a, I actually don't think it'll be a new studio that raises money.”
Bloom: US Government Settled Ross Ulbricht's $193M Restitution Debt via Seized Bitcoin
“The U.S. Government has, like, basically secretly signed a deal with him that this one billion dollar bounty that they have found from a hack of the Silk Road, they are crediting towards his debts to the U.S. Government, and so he has now effectively paid back…”
Bloom: Ross Ulbricht Will Eventually Be Released From Prison
“I think there's, like, a broad case to be made that that he will get out at some point.”
Bloom: Web3 Skews Too Far Toward Selling Over Building Products
“The web three space in general, I think has skewed too far to the cell and not enough to the build. So I think it's like a good call to arms in general to like throw a shot across the bow to the general industry of like, You know, there's so many of these comp…”
Bloom: US real estate depreciation lets multi-millionaires pay zero income tax
“We have friends who are like literally making multiple millions of dollars of cash income a year and paying zero dollars in taxes because they have all this depreciation off their real estate portfolios. It's like a well-known loophole that was created by the …”
Bloom: Holding excess cash and free time is a call option
“Cause to me, I think of cash as like a call option on future interesting opportunities. I like having more cash than anyone would say makes sense. And the reason I do that, I think of it as the same as free time, by the way, it's like now when something cool c…”
Bloom: High-revenue businesses with low customer affinity are prime unbundling targets
“Any business where people, there's tons of people and they made 1.7 billion dollars last year in revenue. And like any time that's the case and no one is proud to say they're affiliated with it, that seems like an opportunity just as a mental model.”
Bloom: Carta's Equity Management Platform Sucks and Is Unintuitive
“Carta has tried to do it, but their platform sucks, man. When you go look at it and try to like manage your options on there, it's really not intuitive and non-educational to me.”
Bloom: Pre-Seed and Seed Valuations Will Avoid Massive Changes
“The, like, pre-seed seed market, it's just so long-term, and it's, you know, ten-plus-year horizons that I don't see a massive change in the valuations.”
Bloom: Twitter's Ad Stack Underperforms Rivals in Direct Response
“Their ad stack sucks. They serve up really bad ads. There's no signal, really bad conversion. Like it's just a bad ad stack. And so when advertisers are comparing it to like Snapchat, Instagram, you know, TikTok, all the other places they can advertise, it's n…”
Bloom: Twitter's $25B Buyout Debt Carries Massive Interest Obligations
“There's twenty-five billion dollars of debt sitting on the business now, and that debt has interest rates on it that aren't super low. And in an environment where so far the, you know, the baseline rate is rising right now, it's actually going to be a shitload…”
Bloom: Large-Scale DAO Governance Fails During Rapid Wartime Decision-Making
“When you are in wartime and having to make dramatic, you know, bold decisions quickly, the idea of going and asking, you know, a hundred million users to vote on something and Trusting that it's going to be the right long-term decision when they're operating w…”
Bloom: I never plan to sell assets, only borrow against them
“I'm investing anything I buy right now. I'm never planning to sell. Like I'm going to borrow against it in the future. I hope but I'm never going to sell it.”
Bloom: I will keep buying Shopify even if it falls to $350
“I'm perfectly comfortable just like, you know, buying more and more Shopify as it goes from 6:40 where it is right now to like, it could be at three 50 and I'd still be buying on the way down. Right. Cause I believe it's going to be worth a whole lot more in t…”
Sahil Bloom: Founders no longer need to live in the Bay Area
“If you want to be a founder or you want to go build something, you don't have to be in the Bay area in the way that you had to, I think, 1015 years ago.”
Earned Media From Crashing Your Site Beats Perfect Uptime
“I personally think that the earned media of saying, oh, we crashed the site with our super bold ad that we ran is more valuable than the site being up and people being able to like do something on the site when they go to it, because I think it extends the hal…”
Bloom: My strategy is to never sell and borrow against holdings
“Like I, my active strategy in markets is I literally buy with never intending to sell. And I intend to, Take loans against holdings and never sell so that I can not have to pay taxes in the future pro tip.”
Bloom: Open IP models will generate more memes and win long-term
“My gut tells me that more open leads to more memes, which will continue to drive growth of the ecosystem, and, I think that that will win in the long run.”
Bloom: Only 2% of Spotify artists earn over $1,000 annually
“Only two percent of Spotify artists are earning more than 1000 dollars a year, and one 10th of one percent.1%, are earning over a hundred K per year.”
Bloom: Ignore Weaknesses And Double Down On Core Strengths
“You're much better off, and it's like, maybe it's contrarian advice, and it's a hot take, but, like, you're much better off just saying fuck it to the stuff you're bad at, and, like, I'm probably not gonna ever be amazing at those things I'm bad at. Let me jus…”
Bloom predicts many tech jobs will return to being in-person
“I think that a lot of tech jobs are going to go back to being in person versus this, like, you know, assumption that everything is going to be a remote forever.”
Bloom: Passive AI recommendations will actively increase overall societal happiness
“And part of me thinks that there's actually like a increase in overall societal happiness from having things that we love surface to us without us actually doing it. And this is like an unlock for that. If you actually have AI that suddenly is able to, maybe n…”
Bloom: Alexis Ohanian’s VC firm uses internal software Cerebro to gamify value-add
“Alexis Ohanian has at seven, seven, six, they have this internal proprietary software they built out called Cerebro. I think it's called like Star Trek reference that manages like all of their internal stuff. And one of the portals is this like value add, like…”
Bloom: Twitter stock will reach $200 with better direct response ads
“The stock is gonna be 200 dollars if you just drive more direct response ads.”
Bloom: Fyre Festival was a great concept despite failed execution
“Fyre Festival was a great idea. I would give him credit for it. He's a, like, fraudster and, you know, did a lot of things that are really bad, but the idea of it, if he had executed, it would have been dope.”
Sahil Bloom argues large-scale event companies are not venture-backable
“It's not a venture bet. Like, I just, I don't understand it as a venture investment, though.”
Bloom: Web3 drives a massive generational wealth transfer that incumbents oppose
“I mean, there's a massive generational transfer of wealth that's happening right now, and the incumbents don't like it. Insiders don't love the fact that anybody can get onto these on rails and operate in this system, but it's such a cool thing.”
Bloom Pitched a Web3 DAO Plan to Buy the X Games
“So I pitched an idea, basically, to web three-ify the X Games, to go and acquire it, form a DAO to go and buy the X Games and then completely reimagine it, both in a web two sense with more traditional media, cultural moments creating the, like, drive to survi…”
A Full DAO Buyout of the X Games Is Not Viable
“In a, you know, fully Dow approach, you raise fifty million dollars or a hundred million dollars, whatever the number is, and you go and just buy the entirety of the X Games. Why do I think that's challenging here? As much as I love that as a cultural moment f…”
DAO Co-Ownership of a Major IP Franchise Is Huge for Web3
“I really do think that web three and having a Dow or something that looks like a Dow acquiring a share of a large operating business with the potential to be a billion dollar plus IP franchise is a huge, huge step forward for the space.”
Bloom plans to form DAO to buy the X Games
“I want to create a DAO. You read my mind. I want to create a DAO to buy the X Games. You buy all the IP of the X Games and basically completely reimagine the X Games for a Web three and crypto enabled world.”
Sahil Bloom: Angie's List provides a spam-heavy, uncontrolled customer experience
“My experience with it is that it sucks. My experience with it is that you go, like, I was trying to find someone to clean our house, and I went and plugged in information on the house, whatever, and basically what happened was I got a bunch of spam calls, beca…”
Sahil Bloom: Corporate preferred moving vendors charge massive markups on employee relocations
“When we went and got quotes from those preferred providers, it was literally like 25 grand to move cross country. We went and got an outside quote, not a preferred provider, and it was like 10. And so literally those people are just providing you these massive…”