why aren't all 95 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Contradicted
Robinhood reached a $10B valuation before incumbents copied zero-commission trading
“People could have asked, and I'm sure they did, in 2011, Robinhood, why doesn't E-Trade or TD Ameritrade just come up with a mobile app and do zero free trading? Well, most of them did eventually, but by the time they did, Robinhood was a ten billion dollar co…”
Assertion Contradicted
Rief: 87.5% of Americans use email as primary communication
“I just saw a stat, I think, 87 and a half percent of people in the US use email as their number one form of communication.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Trinh: Crypto market bottom is at least 6 to 9 months away
“Right now, like, I think we're probably another six to nine months of a minimum of like sliding into finding where the bottom of darkness is.”
Assertion Contradicted
Zapolski: US adults over 65 control two-thirds of national wealth
“Two-thirds of the wealth in the country is controlled by older adults, people over 65.”
Assertion Contradicted
Sanchez: Austin hair salons can be acquired for $80k at 1x profit
“You buy a salon for like 80 K here in Austin that does more than 80 K in profit.”
Assertion Contradicted
Friedberg: Yeast-based fermentation uses only 1.5x energy input per output
“The energy efficiency of that yeast cell, the amount of sugar it requires, and you know, if you look at all the total carbon footprint and everything that goes into making that, that, that protein using the yeast cell, it's about one and a half times the energ…”
Assertion Contradicted
Friedberg: Ammonia synthesis consumes 3% to 6% of global electricity
“Today, synthesizing ammonia accounts for somewhere between three and six percent of global electricity, and all of the food that all of us eat is fertilized with synthetic ammonia, and that saved the planet, and it was just a, you know, a stroke of engineering…”
Assertion Contradicted
MrBeast's Squid Game Video Out-Earned Netflix's Original Series
“That Squid Games reenactment video did more generated more revenue than the original, which is completely insane to me.”
Assertion Contradicted
Nikita Bier: TBH Reached Nine Million Users in 90 Days
“I mean, nine million users in I think it was like, 90 days.”
Assertion Contradicted
Sahil Bloom: Disney changed US IP law 7 to 8 times for Mickey Mouse
“I've written about Disney's IP coming into public domain and how Disney will fight to the death to maintain their, they've actually changed IP law in the U S on like seven or eight occasions to avoid Mickey mouse coming into the public domain.”
Assertion Contradicted
Dogecoin Beat Apple and Amazon in Retail Trading Volume Last Year
“Doge was the, over the past 12 months, the fourth most traded asset across all retail brokers and exchanges. And it was, it beat out by the way, it beat out Apple, Amazon, and the SPY index, the S&P. It was literally behind Tesla, Bitcoin, and Ethereum”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Greg Isenberg: Twitter Stock Will Hit $58.43 By Late 2022
“Alright, I give it 58, 43, one year from now.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Isenberg: Fable will switch to API pricing starting June 22nd
“I think that as, you know, I think it's June 22nd, you're, it's going to be API pricing. It's not going to be included in your max account.”
Assertion Contradicted
Finn: Hermes agent comes preloaded with 150+ skills that increase costs
“Out of the box, your Hermes agent has, like, over a 150 skills installed, and each one of those actually adds context to your agent, and so that's increasing your cost.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lang Learn generated $300K revenue and 200K downloads in 30 days
“It's done 200,000 downloads in the last 30 days. It's done 300,000 dollars of revenue in the last 30 days.”
Assertion Contradicted
Isenberg: 84% of solo female travelers feel unsafe during trips
“Actually, 84% of solo female travelers are feeling unsafe during their trips, yet they have no reliable way to get basic safety
Answers.”
Assertion Contradicted
Organizer: The team organized the world's largest hackathon in weeks
“We pulled off the world's largest hackathon within only a few weeks.”
Assertion Contradicted
Choi: Manus AI restricts beta users to 10 requests or sessions daily
“There is a, I believe there's a 10 request or 10 sessions limit in the day.”
Assertion Contradicted
Schneider: Leadpages generates $50M in annual revenue
“I think Leadpages does fifty million a year, if I remember correctly.”
Assertion Contradicted
Senra: Phish made $140M annually in tour revenue without top 10 hits
“Yet they were making like a hundred and forty million a year in tour revenue at like a decent margin, like unbelievable amount of money.”
Assertion Contradicted
Isenberg: Josh Kushner's first VC fund was two million dollars
“You know how small his first fund was?
Five million.
It was smaller.
Yeah.
It was two million.”
Assertion Contradicted
Isenberg: Reed Hastings banned the word 'Blockbuster' in early meetings
“The founder of Netflix had a strange rule in Netflix's early days. No one was allowed to say blockbuster in meetings.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lemko claims his content projects have generated over one billion views
“Over a billion views for sure on, on all the things I've made.”
Assertion Contradicted
BizNow Media Sold for Approximately $70 Million
“A friend of mine used to run a company called BizNow Media. I think they ended up selling for about seventy million dollars, and that's what they were doing. They were just doing email, you know, real estate news newsletters.”
Assertion Contradicted
Annapolis Local Newsletter Naptown Scoop Generates $400,000 Annually
“Ryan Sneddon of Naptown Scoop, a local newsletter covering Annapolis, Maryland, That's 400 K per year in revenue.”
Assertion Contradicted
Courtney: AJ&Smart hit $10M from one sales funnel
“We go to this very cheesy, but fun event called Funnel Hacking Live, which I've told people about before, and this year, I hope I'm not over, I hope it actually happens, or else this will be kind of embarrassing, but we're picking up an award for having our fi…”
Assertion Contradicted
Pujji: Multiple colostrum supplement startups have reached nine-figure revenues.
“Like, the guys who have done Colostrum, there's, like, multiple nine-figure revenue startups because they were really early to that trend.”
Assertion Contradicted
Matty Mo: Marfa real estate values 10x'd after Donald Judd built studios
“Donald Judd moved there with the help of this rich lawyer guy, bought up a bunch of infrastructure, built his studio, brought his friends out there, and Marfa's real estate, Tenexed in the last decade or so.”
Assertion Contradicted
Wall Street Survivor spent $2M to go public and $2M to privatize
“We spent two million dollars to make it go public. Then we spent two million dollars to privatize it.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Isenberg expects Boring Marketing to reach 60-70+ employees by end of 2024
“I'd expect this business to be sixty-plus, seventy-plus employees by the end of twenty-twenty-four.”
Assertion Contradicted
Isenberg: Alex Hormozi's '$100M Leads' Livestream Had Over 500,000 Viewers
“He also threw while the Tony Robbins event was happening. He threw a launch event for his new book called a hundred million dollar leads. And he had more than 500,000 people in the live stream at the event.”
Assertion Contradicted
Andrew Wilkinson drives Twitter subscriptions by raffling monthly one-on-one video calls
“Andrew Wilkinson, the founder of Tiny Capital, has, like, a Twitter subscription, and it's, like, I don't know, 40 dollars or something, 30 or 40 dollars a month... He's gonna, like, pick someone random from his audience every month and have a thirty-minute co…”
Assertion Contradicted
Pujji: At least three multi-billion-dollar DTC brands started with ED
“There's like at least three multi-billion dollar DTC brands started off erectile dysfunction.”
Assertion Contradicted
Julien Smith raised about $200 million for his startup Breather
“About two hundred million dollars.”
Assertion Contradicted
Nick Saltarelli: Montreal's Desmarais family owns one-third of Adidas
“The Demare family, which is from Montreal owns one third of Adidas, right? That means they own one third of the easiest deal. They own, you know, they own some serious stuff and that's a Montreal family.”
Assertion Contradicted
Saltarelli: Midday Squares outsold Perfect Bar to become #1 in US
“We beat perfect bar in the last 24 weeks as the number one bar in the U S.”
Assertion Contradicted
Bloom: Crypto Media Company Blockworks Has Become A $20M+ Business
“And now it's a, you know, twenty million dollar plus business.”
Assertion Contradicted
Sahil Bloom: There is no centralized property management for residential homeowners
“That does not exist for home ownership, and I've looked into it, I've tried to find it for myself, literally doesn't exist. There's no central body, central authority, where you can just have someone that runs all of these things for you.”
Assertion Contradicted
Isenberg: BoringMarketing.com started purely as an X account
“When we first started BoringMarketing.com you know, it was just a Twitter account where we talked about automating marketing with AI workflow and agents, and over time we built the business around it, but it literally started off as a X account.”
Assertion Contradicted
Schneider: Four ad library scraping startups funded in past six months
“I've seen like four startups get funded for doing this in the last, like, I feel like six months, right. That are scraping app libraries.”
Assertion Contradicted
Brown's Next.js Replit template has over 15,000 forks
“This template for Next.js has over 15,000 uses on repli, like forks”
Assertion Contradicted
Isenberg: Morning Brew makes around $100M a year in revenue
“Morning brew, for example, is, I think they make like a hundred million dollars a year or something like that.”
Assertion Contradicted
How Matty Mo Outranked Picasso on Google for 'The Most Famous Artist'
“He's literally the number one person that comes up ahead of Pablo Picasso, ahead of Rembrandt, ahead of Leonardo da Vinci, Vincent Van Gogh, Salvador Dali, Michelangelo, these people. He's the first person. His name's Matty Moe.”
Assertion Contradicted
Greg Isenberg: Built a social media app in 90 minutes using AI
“We did another video for people with the starter template around, we created basically a social media app in, in like, 90 minutes.”
Assertion Contradicted
Isenberg: Indonesia has the highest search volume for slow living queries
“Like, randomly Indonesia, for example, is like the top search volume.”
Assertion Contradicted
Courtney: Noah Kagan's business generates roughly $38M in annual revenue
“Noah Kagan has like a thirty eight million dollar per year business or something.”
Assertion Contradicted
Ellwood: Airport Meeting Yielded Coca-Cola Deal and Future Startup CMO Hire
“Got that connection and was able to do one of those ideas with Coca-Cola. And my favorite part is that I later hired him to be the CMO of my last startup.”