The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 681 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Ohanian: 90% of gamers will only play games that pay them
“In five years, no one, 90% of people will not play a game unless they are being properly valued for that time.”
Coogan: Startup will demo an armed humanoid robot within six months
“I was predicting that within the next six months, I think that there will be a startup that will take one of these humanoid robots Even if it's tele-operated, give it an AR-fifteen, like a machine gun or a rifle, and just do a demo of like what this would look…”
Phan: YouTube will acquire TikTok and IPO at $500B within 12 months
“I'm making a prediction. YouTube is going to buy TikTok. They're going to spin out YouTube. It's going to go public, five hundred billion dollar company. Done. Clip this. Editor, clip this for when this happens in the next 12 months.”
Isenberg: Hugging Face Is Currently Seeking a $13 Billion Acquisition
“I think they're trying to get acquired right now at thirteen billion dollars.”
Schneider: Autonomous agents can now run entire Facebook ad campaigns end-to-end
“You can make an agent entirely run Facebook ads now. And I'm talking about like, it is researching the pain points. It is researching the outcomes of your target customer. It's making creative that's on brand, both statics and also like AI avatar UGC. It's pub…”
Shipper predicts OpenAI and Anthropic launch agent app stores within a year
“And I bet you within a year the opening eyes in the anthropics of the world will have app stores for apps that are built specifically to be used inside of these services. Maybe even cursor too. I don't have any insight on any of this.”
US government letter forced Anthropic to shut down Claude Fable 5
“Then Friday at five 21 PM, the US government sent Anthropic a letter. And by Friday night, the model was gone. Disabled.”
Liu: OpenAI and Anthropic have over $80 billion in combined revenue
“Take opening Ionanthropic alone, right? Let's just say they have a combined revenue probably of like eighty million plus, right? Or eighty billion, sorry, plus right now up from like basically zero a few years ago.”
Brown: Codex can generate complete working mobile apps from one prompt
“For this, for now, you still need to have a Mac, and you need to have Xcode downloaded, but it can one-shot mobile apps, like full mobile apps.”
Riley Brown: OpenAI consolidated efforts to integrate Atlas browser inside Codex
“Well, recently they had like this big red alert at their company, and they decided to kind of push all of their efforts into one single app, which was Codex. And now what they're doing is they're just putting Atlas inside. They're basically putting Atlas insid…”
Ross Mike: LLMs degrade in performance once context fills past 70-80%
“Cause the model will get dumb as the context window closes, right? So if you have like a context window and I can draw this out, if this is your context window and like the optimal is You're between, like, there's always, like, maybe, like, 10% is already fill…”
Moritz Kremb: OpenAI permits OpenClaw OAuth connections while Anthropic officially bans them
“Because OpenAI has stated that they're okay with it. So for them, it's definitely fine to use this OAuth method with Anthropic. It's kind of a gray area a bit. I think officially in their terms of service, it says you're not allowed to do that.”
Moritz Kremb: Anthropic is banning users for connecting OpenClaw via OAuth
“And some people have been getting banned over it. So I do recommend that if you, if you're scared about your account getting banned, just create a new one, create a new account and put the 20 dollar plan on that.”
Greg Isenberg: Jensen Huang called OpenClaw the most important software release ever
“He said that Open Claw is probably the single most important release of software probably ever.”
Kerner: Facebook Marketplace APIs Allow Third-Party Apps to Be Built
“I've already looked into it. Don't tell me the API permissions don't allow for it because they do.”
Schneider: ChatGPT and Perplexity rely on Google's index instead of crawling
“ChatGPT and OpenAI and Perplexity, like, they're all built on the back of this, like, search engine Google, right? Google has spent the last, whatever, 30 years or 25 years basically indexing the entire, like, internet. Imagine, like, Perplexity and ChatGPT, w…”
Schneider: AI search responses are sourced from Google pages one through three
“When it comes down to it, like all that's happening is basically what is ranking on page one through three of Google. That is what the source material for the AI responses are.”
Wilkinson: Chris Anderson is currently shopping TED for sale
“You know, Ted is for sale right now. Maybe you should buy that. Is that for real? Yeah, it's for, I think it's public knowledge right now. They're shopping it around and he's going to give it, I think he's going to give it away to whoever is going to be the be…”
Al-Abdullah: Every 3% increase in net revenue retention doubles company valuation
“Every three percent increase in net revenue retention doubles the company's valuation.”
Senra: Spotify added 2M subscribers during Joe Rogan controversy
“And then his subscriber count over the few weeks went up. He added two million new subscribers”
Fully autonomous AI developer tools will build entire apps within two years
“Like Devin's trying to create that right now where like I could just give them this idea for an app and then I could go eat pizza and come back and It's just done after many iterations. And so that is like the full, that's where I think this is ultimately goin…”
YouTube's Algorithm Does Not Weight Comments for Video Performance
“Comments have no algorithmic waiting. Like YouTube don't look at comments for video performance, but it's a great indication of, Hey, like, especially with an audience like you have here that is Quite like a tribe of people into similar things.”
Ries: Facebook buried internal scientific research proving its products cause depression
“Facebook even commissioned the scientific research to find out if their product makes people depressed. And then they found out that it does. And they were like, oh, better bury that. Instead of take it seriously and do something about it.”
Lavingia: Engineers and designers are 2-3x cheaper than 6 months ago
“Like engineers are cheaper. They're easier to hire. Designers are cheaper, easier to hire. And that's all I need. I don't actually don't need anything else. Those are the two most valuable, you know, resources on the planet. And now they're, you know, they're …”
Lavingia: Over 90% of startup value comes from engineer-founded giants
“If you look at startups and you say, okay, 99% of the public value is basically, or 90 plus percent is basically in four or five companies. Right? If you get rid of, like, Google, Amazon, Meta, like, we haven't done shit as an industry, right? In terms of actu…”
Pal: Only tech stocks and crypto beat the Fed balance sheet expansion
“There's only two things that outperformed the Fed balance sheet over the last, since 2008. Only two asset classes. One was technology stocks, and the other was crypto.”
Calacanis: Crypto market downturn will trigger hundreds of lawsuits
“And I think this stress test is gonna result in countless And I mean countless lawsuits. Hundreds of lawsuits.”
Goldberg: STEPN sneakers will lose value without a burning mechanism
“Steppen has this Runaway sneaker breeding problem because there's no burn mechanism in place for getting rid of all of the excess sneakers. Like people are minting and minting and minting. And so eventually they're all going to become worthless, or you're goin…”
Friedberg: Most commercial wine from Gallo and Constellation contains added flavorings
“In fact, people don't realize this, but most of the commercial wine you buy today is actually flavored. It's not just the grapes. So everyone from Constellation Brands to Gallo, they take grapes, they turn it into ethanol and water and flavor, and then they ad…”
The First YouTuber Billionaire Will Emerge From India by 2027
“I don't think it's gonna be Mr. Beast, by the way. I think. SPEAKER_02: Why is that? Nuseir Yassin (Nas Daily): I think they'll come from India. I think a lot of people In India are like killing it, but the mainstream media in the United States does not listen…”
Demirors: Ethereum has been rolled back and is not truly immutable
“The Ethereum network has been rolled back. Ethereum's not immutable. These other chains are not immutable, right?”
Ohanian: DAO participation will be commonplace within five years
“I think everyone in five years will participate in a DAO. They won't know it necessarily. I don't think that branding is, is whack. But they won't care. Right. User experience triumphs over everything. So yeah, I think it will be pretty commonplace. Not, maybe…”
Ohanian: Bored Ape owners will borrow against NFTs and never sell
“It is inevitable and on the order of months and lots of years, if not months for all those Bored Ape owners, To never have to actually sell.”
Shipper: OpenAI and Anthropic do not really offer fine-tuning anymore
“In that case, like, you have to use open-source models, because none of the major model companies, or at least OpenAnthropic, don't really do fine-tuning anymore.”
Isenberg: Memory Hardware and AI Token Prices Are Not Getting Cheaper
“Because, you know, the price of memory isn't getting cheaper. And the price of tokens aren't getting cheaper.”
Regulated sectors are legally barred from sending data to cloud AI APIs
“Healthcare, legal, finance, they have money, they have problems AI can solve, but they legally cannot send their data to a cloud API.”
Mike: Peter burned $1.3M in AI tokens in one month on loops
“The one argument I'll fight back with is this is going to burn a lot of tokens, and if you don't believe me, all you have to do is look at Peter's tweet, where in one month he burnt 1.3 million dollars worth of tokens.”
Finn: OpenClaw hardcodes models and requires framework updates for new releases
“OpenClaw, like every model is like hard coded in to OpenClaw. So you have to like ask them to switch models. And when new models come out, you have to wait for OpenClaw to update with that newest model.”
Isenberg: YC Predicts Over 300 Vertical AI Unicorns Will Emerge This Decade
“YC predicts that there's going to be 300 plus unicorns in vertical AI in, in, in, you know, this decade.”
Henry: OpenAI owns OpenClaw and will tighten its security
“I think now OpenAI own OpenClaw. The security is going to get a lot tighter. Things are going to be a lot, lot smoother.”
Henry: Ernesto Lopez scaled apps to over $70K MRR using Larry Brain
“Ernesto Lopez has used Larry brain to scale to over 70,000 MRR. He's implemented it in his apps using his already created content creation. He's implemented the Larry loop to improve the content he was already creating and will Was already winning, and he's ha…”
Linton: GPT-5.3 Codex beat Opus 4.6 on SWE-bench Pro and TerminalBench
“Five, five, three codecs did win on SWD bench pro terminal bench overall. It's like scored better on coding benchmarks. So probably better end end app generation.”
Kevin Rose: Gemini Search Grounding Bypasses Scraper Blocks on Sites Like Reddit
“Oftentimes they won't come out and say this, but they kind of crawl the article and give you back what the article actually says. And they might reword it a little bit, but it's largely what the article says. And I can prove that because they can, you can do t…”
Kerner: 51% of Social Media Purchases Happen on Facebook Marketplace
“51% of all recent social media purchases, so like not Amazon, social media purposes, all happened on Facebook Marketplace, ok?”
Kilpatrick: Gemini 3.0 Pro API undercuts GPT-5.1 Pro and Claude 4.5
“The actual model is two dollars per million input tokens and 12 dollars per million output tokens. So it's priced below some of those sort of comparable competitive models like GBT, 5.1 pro as an example, and Claude 4.5.”
Simons: Bolt Hackathon broke world records with 130,000 participants and 1M apps
“The world record for the largest hackathon prior to this hackathon was 66,000 people. On day one, we crossed that number. At the end, we had over a 130,000 people, and over a million new web apps were created in, in that 30 day period.”