The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 495 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Isenberg: Hugging Face Is Currently Seeking a $13 Billion Acquisition
“I think they're trying to get acquired right now at thirteen billion dollars.”
Schneider: Autonomous agents can now run entire Facebook ad campaigns end-to-end
“You can make an agent entirely run Facebook ads now. And I'm talking about like, it is researching the pain points. It is researching the outcomes of your target customer. It's making creative that's on brand, both statics and also like AI avatar UGC. It's pub…”
Shipper predicts OpenAI and Anthropic launch agent app stores within a year
“And I bet you within a year the opening eyes in the anthropics of the world will have app stores for apps that are built specifically to be used inside of these services. Maybe even cursor too. I don't have any insight on any of this.”
US government letter forced Anthropic to shut down Claude Fable 5
“Then Friday at five 21 PM, the US government sent Anthropic a letter. And by Friday night, the model was gone. Disabled.”
Ross Mike: LLMs degrade in performance once context fills past 70-80%
“Cause the model will get dumb as the context window closes, right? So if you have like a context window and I can draw this out, if this is your context window and like the optimal is You're between, like, there's always, like, maybe, like, 10% is already fill…”
Moritz Kremb: OpenAI permits OpenClaw OAuth connections while Anthropic officially bans them
“Because OpenAI has stated that they're okay with it. So for them, it's definitely fine to use this OAuth method with Anthropic. It's kind of a gray area a bit. I think officially in their terms of service, it says you're not allowed to do that.”
Moritz Kremb: Anthropic is banning users for connecting OpenClaw via OAuth
“And some people have been getting banned over it. So I do recommend that if you, if you're scared about your account getting banned, just create a new one, create a new account and put the 20 dollar plan on that.”
Greg Isenberg: Jensen Huang called OpenClaw the most important software release ever
“He said that Open Claw is probably the single most important release of software probably ever.”
Wilkinson: Chris Anderson is currently shopping TED for sale
“You know, Ted is for sale right now. Maybe you should buy that. Is that for real? Yeah, it's for, I think it's public knowledge right now. They're shopping it around and he's going to give it, I think he's going to give it away to whoever is going to be the be…”
Senra: Spotify added 2M subscribers during Joe Rogan controversy
“And then his subscriber count over the few weeks went up. He added two million new subscribers”
Fully autonomous AI developer tools will build entire apps within two years
“Like Devin's trying to create that right now where like I could just give them this idea for an app and then I could go eat pizza and come back and It's just done after many iterations. And so that is like the full, that's where I think this is ultimately goin…”
Pal: Only tech stocks and crypto beat the Fed balance sheet expansion
“There's only two things that outperformed the Fed balance sheet over the last, since 2008. Only two asset classes. One was technology stocks, and the other was crypto.”
Calacanis: Crypto market downturn will trigger hundreds of lawsuits
“And I think this stress test is gonna result in countless And I mean countless lawsuits. Hundreds of lawsuits.”
Goldberg: STEPN sneakers will lose value without a burning mechanism
“Steppen has this Runaway sneaker breeding problem because there's no burn mechanism in place for getting rid of all of the excess sneakers. Like people are minting and minting and minting. And so eventually they're all going to become worthless, or you're goin…”
Demirors: Ethereum has been rolled back and is not truly immutable
“The Ethereum network has been rolled back. Ethereum's not immutable. These other chains are not immutable, right?”
Ohanian: Bored Ape owners will borrow against NFTs and never sell
“It is inevitable and on the order of months and lots of years, if not months for all those Bored Ape owners, To never have to actually sell.”
Mike: Peter burned $1.3M in AI tokens in one month on loops
“The one argument I'll fight back with is this is going to burn a lot of tokens, and if you don't believe me, all you have to do is look at Peter's tweet, where in one month he burnt 1.3 million dollars worth of tokens.”
Isenberg: YC Predicts Over 300 Vertical AI Unicorns Will Emerge This Decade
“YC predicts that there's going to be 300 plus unicorns in vertical AI in, in, in, you know, this decade.”
Henry: Ernesto Lopez scaled apps to over $70K MRR using Larry Brain
“Ernesto Lopez has used Larry brain to scale to over 70,000 MRR. He's implemented it in his apps using his already created content creation. He's implemented the Larry loop to improve the content he was already creating and will Was already winning, and he's ha…”
Linton: GPT-5.3 Codex beat Opus 4.6 on SWE-bench Pro and TerminalBench
“Five, five, three codecs did win on SWD bench pro terminal bench overall. It's like scored better on coding benchmarks. So probably better end end app generation.”
Kevin Rose: Gemini Search Grounding Bypasses Scraper Blocks on Sites Like Reddit
“Oftentimes they won't come out and say this, but they kind of crawl the article and give you back what the article actually says. And they might reword it a little bit, but it's largely what the article says. And I can prove that because they can, you can do t…”
Kerner: 51% of Social Media Purchases Happen on Facebook Marketplace
“51% of all recent social media purchases, so like not Amazon, social media purposes, all happened on Facebook Marketplace, ok?”
Reports indicate AI software builder Lovable is raising at a $2B valuation
“Well, yesterday I think it was leaked that lovable is raising at a two billion dollar valuation.”
GenSpark reached $36M ARR in 45 days, adding almost $1M daily
“Then they launched the agent platform about two months ago. It hit ten million ARR in nine days. Now they're at thirty six million ARR in 45 days. They're basically adding almost a million dollars a day in ARR.”
Sam Altman predicts 'idea guys' will soon dominate the startup industry
“He just posted on his blog. He says for a long time, technical people in the startup industry Have made fun of idea guys. People who've had an idea and were looking for a team to build it. It now looks to me like they are about to have their day in the sun.”
Meng To: No other AI design tool offers real-time live previews
“And also I already had like the life The live preview as you generate. So nobody else has that, by the way. When you're generating, it's going to live preview everything you're doing. You don't have to wait like five minutes for something to show up.”
Content marketing pipelines will soon be fully automated end-to-end
“You know, end to end is coming. Like eventually this is going to be like fully automated where you enter your URL, it's finding the keywords, it's creating cross platform content, and that's just publishing it for you. So that's definitely in the future.”
Isenberg: Cal AI is generating $30M a year in revenue
“The popular example right now is like Cal AI. And I've had those guys on the podcast that they're doing thirty million dollars a year.”
Al-Abdullah: Harvard study found equity grants do not increase performance
“Harvard did a study where they actually found no market increase in performance when they landed equity to individuals.”
Isenberg: MrBeast is raising $150M at a $1.5B valuation for CPG products
“Mr. Beast is raising a hundred and fifty million dollars at I think a 101.5 billion dollar valuation? And he's doing it to double down on his CPG products.”
Josephs: Autopilot planted a fake Nancy Pelosi at a UFC fight
“We literally did send a fake Pelosi to the fight. She was sitting there in the front row with Mike Malak. There's all these pieces of content around her. The New York post already kind of took it up. They created an article about it.”
Isenberg: MrBeast's leaked manual promises exceptional employees will get rich
“He basically says that he's going to make you rich. If you do well and you create, you know, you're exceptional at what you do you will be rich if you work for Mr. Beast, basically is what he's saying. And you'll make more money Than you could ever dream of ma…”
Goli offers Rolexes, Lamborghinis, and Miami condos to top TikTok Shop affiliates
“Their incentive package for affiliates going into Q four is insane. Well, I mean, my incentive package is basically if you generate enough GMV, like the market value of sales there, it's like Rolex, Lamborghini, a condo in Miami, night at Amangiri. Like that's…”
Isenberg: AI search engines like ChatGPT will embed interactive tools
“My prediction is tools will be embedded within a lot of these platforms.
So
Right now when you use perplexity or use ChatGPT, really what you're getting back is mostly texts. You know, sometimes you're getting some links or some images and over time what you'r…”
Schneider: Wind energy is now cheaper than natural gas
“It's already cheaper than natural gas and natural gas. It looks like can't go cheaper. So what's going to naturally happen in the market and solar still getting cheaper.”
Rogenmoser: AI tools will connect multiple applications to perform complex workflows
“I think you're gonna see more tools that, that do work for you, and not just, like, generate text, but, like, you know, the interface would be more natural language on the front end where you're telling an app to do something, and then now, you know, it's goin…”
Spartz: Automated weapons systems have already taken over lethal decision-making
“There's tons of weapons systems you already have that like, there's no human that decides like the robots decide for us. Like they shoot down the missile before we even have time to react, you know? So we've already given up the Like kill switch to the machine…”
Rief: MrBeast's spin-off ventures will surpass $1B in cumulative value
“I think the cumulative enterprise value of what he creates will be well above a billion dollars.”
Pal: Crypto hedge funds hold just $4B compared to $57B in VC
“VC space is crowded with fifty seven billion going in in the last 15 months. Hedge fund space, the entire size of the hedge fund space, four billion. There is, the secondary market in crypto is entirely starved of capital.”
Bloom: FTX reached agreement to acquire BlockFi for up to $240M
“FTX is now, you know, under a definitive agreement to acquire block five for like, I don't really care how, you know, the CEO positioned it, you know, with the revolving line of credit, that's not really enterprise value. It's not like buying the equity, but l…”
Wolfe predicts the digitization of human scent and machine olfaction
“The digitization of human scent is coming.
Shazam for smell.
The ability to identify a single molecule in a room is coming.
The ability, not only a single molecule that has meaning to you.
I mean, literally a molecule, a structure actually conveys to you know,…”
Bloom: US real estate depreciation lets multi-millionaires pay zero income tax
“We have friends who are like literally making multiple millions of dollars of cash income a year and paying zero dollars in taxes because they have all this depreciation off their real estate portfolios. It's like a well-known loophole that was created by the …”
Isenberg: Meta stock will outperform over the next one to three years
“And I feel like, I don't know, a year, two, three years from now, like, I feel like they're gonna ship some stuff, and some of it's gonna work. So I'm a, I think I think the stock will outperform. That's what I think.”
Bloom: Only 2% of Spotify artists earn over $1,000 annually
“Only two percent of Spotify artists are earning more than 1000 dollars a year, and one 10th of one percent.1%, are earning over a hundred K per year.”
Finkelstein: Shopify GMV ranks second behind Amazon in US online retail
“If you pretend we were retailer, we would be the second largest online retailer in America after Amazon.”
Blizzard Nerfing a WoW Warlock Spell Inspired Vitalik to Create Ethereum
“Vitalik the creator of Ethereum he was a warlock in World of Warcraft, and Blizzard nerfing Siphon Life was one of the reasons that he decided to make Ethereum. He was like mad that the centralized group, like had the control to nerf something. So he was like,…”
Bloom: Alexis Ohanian’s VC firm uses internal software Cerebro to gamify value-add
“Alexis Ohanian has at seven, seven, six, they have this internal proprietary software they built out called Cerebro. I think it's called like Star Trek reference that manages like all of their internal stuff. And one of the portals is this like value add, like…”
Ohanian: Reddit grew yearly for five years despite zero product investment
“Like, Reddit for five years between, I left in 2010, I came back in early, you know, late 14 as exec chair, had Almost no investment by con and asked in the product. The product didn't improve for half a decade, barely stayed online. Okay. There's no business …”