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Nikita Bier

Product Growth Partner, Lightspeed Venture Partners · 1 appearance on the record.

computed by AI from the episodes · how this works → · full disclaimer →

founderoperatorinvestorexecutive@nikitabier ↗LinkedIn ↗lsvp.com ↗Wikipedia ↗

Nikita Bier is known for creating viral social apps tbh and Gas, which were acquired by Meta and Discord, respectively. He previously served as Head of Product at X and actively invests in and advises consumer applications.

12statements → 5claims → 2claims resolved → 3.5/5average certainty → 2.67/5average debate potential → 65said about them ↓

1 supported 0 partly supported 1 contradicted 3 not checkable as stated how the 5 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

2 predictions · 3 assertions · 3 opinions · 3 insights · 1 what if · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 5 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 2 are resolved, and 3 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Nikita argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Assertion Supported
Nikita Bier: TBH Was the 15th App Built Over Five Years
“We built we did it for five years. We built 15 apps. We were about to shut down. We were very close to it. And the 15th app went straight to number one in the app store, right as we were, like, basically turning off the lights in the office.”
Nikita Bier Feb 15, 2022 ▶ 7:00 Will Meta Bounce Back? (with Nikita Bier) | Where It Happens | Bonus Episode

Their most notable contradicted claim

Assertion Contradicted
Nikita Bier: TBH Reached Nine Million Users in 90 Days
“I mean, nine million users in I think it was like, 90 days.”
Nikita Bier Feb 15, 2022 ▶ 8:52 Will Meta Bounce Back? (with Nikita Bier) | Where It Happens | Bonus Episode

Expressed certainty vs assessment result

none yet certainty 1
none yet certainty 2
0% certainty 3
none yet certainty 4
100% certainty 5

weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet

How they sound: not measured why? →

We measure speaking style by listening to the audio itself, and a fair number needs at least 2,000 words from one person on tape we have measured. There is too little of Nikita Bier on measured tape to publish a rate. This says nothing about how they speak.

Everything Nikita Bier said on the Startup Ideas Podcast that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Opinion
Bier: Apple is the true monopoly, hurting small businesses via ad changes
“Yeah, it goes to show that the monopoly might not be Facebook. It might very well be Apple. The fact that they could just, you know, hobble a bunch of small businesses overnight with by hurting the performance of ads. And I think, you know, a lot of people say…”
Nikita Bier Feb 15, 2022 ▶ 21:09 Will Meta Bounce Back? (with Nikita Bier) | Where It Happens | Bonus Episode
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bier: FTC will block Meta from acquiring competitors to fix growth
“The regulators the FTC they won't re they won't sign off on any sort of large acquisition of a user base. So They're losing users from an engagement from these two other competitors. And at the same time, they can't really buy their way out of it like they did…”
Nikita Bier Feb 15, 2022 ▶ 13:04 Will Meta Bounce Back? (with Nikita Bier) | Where It Happens | Bonus Episode
Insight
Bier: Big tech takes over two years to clone startups
“After being on the inside, it takes about a year of collecting data for them to even think about building something like this or building something they see happening in the market. And then it takes three months of like a framing process where you do research…”
Nikita Bier Feb 15, 2022 ▶ 15:38 Will Meta Bounce Back? (with Nikita Bier) | Where It Happens | Bonus Episode
Opinion
Bier: Meta has the world's best misinformation systems
“They have some of the best integrity systems, the best Spam the best misinformation detection systems out of any, probably any company in the world.”
Nikita Bier Feb 15, 2022 ▶ 18:02 Will Meta Bounce Back? (with Nikita Bier) | Where It Happens | Bonus Episode
Insight
Bier: Big tech companies exist for founder egos, not profit
“Companies exist for like big tech companies exist for the egos of the founders. And at the end of the day, he just wants to be liked. He just wants to build something that helps people.”
Nikita Bier Feb 15, 2022 ▶ 23:54 Will Meta Bounce Back? (with Nikita Bier) | Where It Happens | Bonus Episode
Insight
Bier: Big tech companies rarely build breakout zero-to-one products
“Many, most of big tech has not ever built in house zero to one products that have had that have broken out. I like the iPhone. It was truly like a historical example that that happened. But I think if you look across all of big tech, you rarely see that happen…”
Nikita Bier Feb 15, 2022 ▶ 12:06 Will Meta Bounce Back? (with Nikita Bier) | Where It Happens | Bonus Episode
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bier: The metaverse and face computers are many years away
“I think the metaverse is many years away. At least I don't see us wearing face computers anytime in the short term.”
Nikita Bier Feb 15, 2022 ▶ 25:09 Will Meta Bounce Back? (with Nikita Bier) | Where It Happens | Bonus Episode
Opinion
Bier: Meta stock is a strong value buy at 16x PE
“I think they have a shit ton of, bottom line is they have a shit ton of talent for that PE ratio. I think it's a very good value buy right now”
Nikita Bier Feb 15, 2022 ▶ 25:46 Will Meta Bounce Back? (with Nikita Bier) | Where It Happens | Bonus Episode
What-if
Nikita Bier: TBH Would Have Failed If Launched on First Try
“If we just struck it on the first try, I think it would have crashed and burned really quickly.”
Nikita Bier Feb 15, 2022 ▶ 8:25 Will Meta Bounce Back? (with Nikita Bier) | Where It Happens | Bonus Episode
Assertion Contradicted
Nikita Bier: TBH Reached Nine Million Users in 90 Days
“I mean, nine million users in I think it was like, 90 days.”
Nikita Bier Feb 15, 2022 ▶ 8:52 Will Meta Bounce Back? (with Nikita Bier) | Where It Happens | Bonus Episode
Assertion Supported
Nikita Bier: TBH Was the 15th App Built Over Five Years
“We built we did it for five years. We built 15 apps. We were about to shut down. We were very close to it. And the 15th app went straight to number one in the app store, right as we were, like, basically turning off the lights in the office.”
Nikita Bier Feb 15, 2022 ▶ 7:00 Will Meta Bounce Back? (with Nikita Bier) | Where It Happens | Bonus Episode
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Nikita Bier: TBH Received Acquisition Term Sheet Within Six Weeks
“We got the term sheet within six weeks of launching the app and we sold, it was kind of like a dream come true situation.”
Nikita Bier Feb 15, 2022 ▶ 7:26 Will Meta Bounce Back? (with Nikita Bier) | Where It Happens | Bonus Episode

The other half of the tape: Nikita Bier's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 63 times in 16 episodes on the Startup Ideas Podcast. 2 statements on the record name them. every mention, with the transcript →

Who brings them up most Greg Isenberg 34Nick Huber 17Eric Min Jun Kim 3Noah Kagan 2Sahil Bloom 1Danny Trinh 1

Statements about Nikita Bier, by other people (2)

Assertion Partly supported
Isenberg: Nikita Bier launched TBH as a hail Mary before Facebook sale
“And he ended up as like a hail Mary launching TBH. It ends up going viral and like tens of millions of people download it and ends up selling to Facebook, like for tens of millions of dollars, like a couple months later.”
Greg Isenberg Jun 29, 2023 ▶ 12:59 Business ideas worth paying attention to
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Isenberg: Nikita Bier nearly shut down his startup before launching TBH
“Like, you know, Nikita beer, for example you know, TBH, that app that he eventually sold to Facebook, like was like, I mean, I remember him calling me and being like, Hey dude, like, do you know how to shut down an office and shut down a company? And I was lik…”
Greg Isenberg Apr 20, 2023 ▶ 4:19 The Secret Strategies of Top DTC Brands with Nik Sharma

Every mention by year

tap a year for its mentions
001543082022202320242025episodesmentions
0482022202320242025episodes it came up in
002.54582022202320242025episodesmentions per episode
2025 3 mentions in 1 episode
2024 30 mentions in 7 episodes 4 per episode
2023 10 mentions in 4 episodes 3 per episode
2022 20 mentions in 4 episodes 5 per episode

Appearances (1)

EpisodeDateSpeaking time
Will Meta Bounce Back? (with Nikita Bier) | Where It Happens | Bonus Episode Feb 15, 2022 9m
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