The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 44 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Lamm: Earth is forecasted to lose 50% of biodiversity within 25 years
“It's currently forecasted that we're going to lose up to 50% of all biodiversity in the next 25 years.”
Tony Kim: China has 30 to 40 potential robotics IPOs this year
“I'm looking at the current pipeline. I see 30, 40 potential IPOs this year in China.”
Miller: Monthly AI token spend will go well above $500M
“I'm very bullish that we're going to go well above that.”
Armstrong: AI Agents Will Use Base Wallets to Form an Agentic Economy
“We're also going to see AI agents have their own financial accounts, and we're powering that with the base, like, MCP API so they can have their own self-custodial wallet now and start to have a true agentic economy, paying for goods and services, hiring other…”
Wright: Space Data Centers Are Inevitable to Power Lunar and Martian Bases
“This is actually a debate that we have in terms of how soon it's going to happen, but it's definitely going to happen. Data centers in space is coming, and it makes sense, right? If you think about and you know, a lot of this is public, but what SpaceX is talk…”
Shadbolt: Quantum commercial adoption will precede cryptographic security risks
“You should get like an economic early warning sign essentially where you should see quantum computing companies Doing commercially impactful things, making money, and then eventually scaling towards systems that are big enough to be cryptographically relevant.”
Competitors will catch up to OpenAI's o1 reasoning model within six months
“O1 just came out. We haven't fully benchmarked on our side yet. It's definitely an improvement. And so open AI is ahead of everybody else. It's an improvement in reasoning which is good. We can talk about that later on, but I expect people will catch up within…”
Laffont: Top AI and tech unicorns will likely IPO within 24 months
“You know, some of them will probably go public in the next 12 to 24 months, so that'll be kind of one impact of it”
Franceschi: Incumbent ERP companies will not build autonomous AI agents
“You have existing incumbents in the finance space, like the ERP companies, for example, I don't think they're going to go do that.”
Maguire: SpaceX will deliver major direct-to-cell service by 2028
“And then I think in roughly twenty-twenty-eight, it's gonna be the year of direct to sell, and SpaceX talked about this publicly, but it's gonna take time, you know, they just acquired a bunch of spectrum, it takes time to get, you know, Antennas and phones op…”
Goldstein: eVTOL aircraft will begin flying in US cities next year
“And so we came up with this concept around what they called the EIPP or eVTOL integration pilot program. And that was to allow these aircrafts to start flying in the cities in the U.S. As soon as next year. And so what they're going to do is they're actually g…”
Schimpf: Anduril will produce autonomous fighter jets in months
“We're making autonomous fighter jets. You know, like three years ago, we weren't believable to make autonomous fighter jets. Now we're doing it. And we're going to have them be produced in a production facility in like months from now.”
Serhant predicts a new Class A office development race in NYC
“I think now you're gonna have a Class A office race. So now, Ken Griffin, Vernado. Right? And those guys are going to do park, and I think it's 51st. They're just going to tear down all those buildings on 51st and just build a brand new tower to compete with t…”
Doricko: UFC Will Host a Fight at the White House by July 2026
“I think that's also free money. I think that we live in clown world and there will be a UFC fight there.”
Vasavada: 60% chance of a recession in late 2025 or early 2026
“If it's not this year, it would be late, like Q-three, Q-four it'll probably be early next year.
What do you think the current odds are on that?
I would say, 60% chance of a recession.”
Power: Fed will cut rates close to 2021 ZERP levels within 12 months
“I think that we have so much headroom in the federal reserve rate, that I think we're going to see dramatic cuts close to twenty-twenty-one ZERP levels over the next 12 months.”
Kim: Tech industry layoffs in 2025 will be lower than in 2024
“I would actually bet that there would be less.”
Klein predicts federal AI regulation focused on deepfakes will pass in 2025
“I think there will be some sort of regulation, right? Like, especially around like deep fakes or, you know, video, like it feels like you, if you use AI generated video to, you know, cause pain or harm or reputational harm to someone is that standalone AI regu…”
Tunguz: Consumer AI will surpass one billion users in 2025
“So you're kind of approaching the billion user number in consumer AI. I think we'll definitely surpass that this year.”
Sadeghi predicts Nucleus will sequence 500,000 whole genomes by 2026
“I think we can actually, I think two years from now, we can get half a million samples. Two years from today, I think we could do that.”
Bernauer predicts Radiant will complete and ship a reactor in 2025
“Twenty-twenty-four will be the last year that we're playing around with the analysis paralysis and the design and answering all the questions, the regulator and simulating things in the twin. And twenty-twenty-five is going to be actually building the thing up…”
Oltmann: VC deployment, late-stage check sizes, and deal volume will surge in H2 2024
“And then the second half of this year I think we're going to see a significant increase in just dollars deployed from venture funds. That's also going to be on, you know, individual check sizes, I think are going to go up again in the later stages. And then al…”
SpaceX will launch close to 200 times this year, says Fishner-Wolfson
“They're going to launch, I don't know what to me this year, but like something close to 200 times. Like no one else in the world is launching even 15, 20 times, right?”
Immerman: Elon Musk has 90%+ odds of becoming world's first trillionaire
“Well, if that market existed today, I think it would probably be like 90% plus odds on Elon. He's like pretty close at this point. Depending on, you know, where his companies go out he's certainly the favorite. So I would definitely bet on him.”
Ulevitch: All future autonomous vehicles will be electric
“Part of the shift to electric vehicles, obviously we have EVs today, but as we shift to more autonomous vehicles, all those vehicles are going to be electric as well.”
Steinman: The US will not mandate security clearances for AI engineers
“I think they should. I don't think they will. It's just really hard, right? Like you're gonna go to a private company and say these people have to have clearances.”
Agrawal: At least one of Klarna, Discord, Databricks, Cerebras, Anduril will IPO this year
“I think at least one of them will go public this year.”
Nolan: Turbines will likely be the bottleneck for expanding natural gas power
“Turbines will be the bottleneck most likely.”
Anthropic will inevitably reach AI Security Level 3, potentially by late 2025
“Whether security level three is going to be a thing. And I think the short answer is, yeah, it's just a question of time. And is it going to be this side of Christmas or after? I don't know yet”
The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice in 2025
“Obviously Trump is pretty loud on X and on Trump social around like pushing rate cuts, but I don't think Powell's gonna give into that. So my gut says two.”
Waymo will be operating in six cities by the end of 2025
“I think that I love the product, but also it seems like the speed at which they're iterating is increasing. So I'm going to go with six.”
AI will reason over three-hour screen recordings in two to three years
“I think it's inevitable that in about two or three years, we will have models that are multimodal, large context windows, are capable of reasoning over, say, three hours of a screen recording.”
SpaceX will complete more than 160 rocket launches in 2025
“I think it will for sure be above one 50, but given those options, above one 60, maybe even one 70.”
Fewer venture capital firms will raise opportunity or growth funds going forward
“I do think fewer people will raise opportunity funds or growth funds. I think that is likely.”
Alter: 2024 will be the third most active year for European VC
“You know, if the pace continues, I think twenty-twenty-four will become the third most active year ever for VC funding in Europe.”
Bernauer predicts multiple nuclear entities will conduct fuel tests in 2026
“And I think others are going to do that same thing in that same year. So it won't even be just us. It'll be several different entities.”
Affirm Will Originate Over $47 Billion in Loans This Fiscal Year
“We'll do north of 47, forty eight billion dollars of loans this fiscal year alone.”
Rinaudo Cliffton: Zipline will cross 2M deliveries in 3–4 days
“We're just about to cross two million total deliveries. Yeah, that'll probably happen in the next three or four days.”
Power: Hadrian will open its Arizona factory by Christmas
“So we're launching factory three in Arizona, which will be up and running in Christmas. We're in July, we signed the lease a couple of weeks ago, so it'll take us six months from start to finish to have it up and running, which I think is really fast.”