The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,341 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 40 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Sadeghi: Nucleus is the first company to optimize embryos for IQ
“This is the first time a company has partnered with a couple who have optimized their embryos on the basis of intelligence.”
Goldstein: Competitor weaponized the government by framing Archer engineer as a spy
“If, in America, I didn't think it was possible for a competitor to weaponize the government to come after you. And we saw that. It was unbelievable. It was you know, one of my engineers was set up to look like he was like a Chinese spy, and it was totally fake…”
Mansoor: Kalshi's federal regulation allows sports trading across all 50 states
“It's the first time that sports, like, trading on sports is actually legal in all 50 states. Because we are regulated by the, you know, by the feds, like, at the federal level, not state by state. And the federal regulation, like, the law actually supersedes s…”
Mavrookas: Saronic Corsairs rescued downed Apache pilots and attacked Iranian port
“Corsairs, which you just saw, were actively being used in the Straits of Hormuz. Two examples that were made public were one, the Apache pilot rescue of two down pilots, And then a offensive attack on an Iranian port, which actually took out an Iranian submari…”
Monroe-Anderson: Very few defense tech startups have deployed meaningful equipment in Ukraine
“And there's very few defense tech startups that have a meaningful amount of equipment deployed in Ukraine. Like you can just go down the list and see.”
Liang: SambaNova 10kW SN40 rack outperformed 140kW Nvidia GPU racks
“And so by the time we released SN-Forty a couple years ago, it became incredibly popular, because instead of a 130, a 140 kilowatt rack of NVIDIA GPU, we were outperforming them with a 10 kilowatt SN-Forty rack.”
Feldman: xAI leased GPUs to Anthropic because Grok lacked usage
“They had available capacity because the Grok model wasn't used very much. So they had these GPUs that were sitting around and that's a bad idea. And so they sold a whole block of them or released a whole block of them to Anthropic.”
Slotowicz: OpenAI recently announced internal plans to go public
“OpenAI just announced that they're going to be going public.”
Fishner-Wolfson claims OpenAI and Anthropic have confidentially filed S-1s
“SpaceX is the big one to kind of start this, but, I mean, as you mentioned, like, OpenAI and Anthropic are both valid. They're S-one's confidentially, so it's gonna be a pretty interesting, you know, few quarters in the public markets.”
Rangwalla: Anthropic Grew ARR From $9B in December to $30B
“It was nine billion dollars at the end of December, and that number was thirty billion, right? So they added twenty billion, they're adding, you know, ten billion plus or minus a month, almost two and a half billion dollars a week.”
Adcock: Figure demonstration robots run purely autonomously with onboard Helix AI
“This is not tele-operated.
For sure not tele-operated.
No secret room.
these robots are running purely autonomously from an onboard AI policy called Helix running onboard the robot in the torso.”
Immerman: Waymo remains significantly ahead of Tesla on safety metrics
“But when you take a step back and compare the data, whether it's disengagements, reported accidents in Austin, Waymo is still significantly ahead today, and we feel really good about their position.”
Immerman: Kalshi is number one across users, revenue, and volume
“And today they're number one across users, revenue, volume, any metric that, that anyone would care about.”
Maguire: Top AI models outperform average top-five PhD students
“I think we've definitely hit the point where in most fields of math or physics or computer science, like the best models are better than the average PhD student at like a top five research program”
Goldstein: Buttigieg refused meetings, but Sean Duffy meets with Archer monthly
“I literally could not get a meeting with Secretary Pete Buttigieg. I couldn't do it. He just wouldn't take the meeting. And so, I don't know if it just wasn't important to him or whatever his reasons were, but as soon as the new administration, the administrat…”
Serhant: SERHANT reaches more organic global buyers than competitors combined
“We can put properties in front of more qualified buyers globally, organically than any other firm combined.”
Siemiatkowski: Klarna cut headcount from 7,400 to 3,000 while doubling revenue
“Klana has gotten so much attention around our efficiency gains, and we've gone from 7400 people to 3000, while, you know, our revenue has doubled since then. So, our revenue per employee went from 450,000 dollars per employee to over a million now.”
McGee: Tim Cook Pledged $275B in Apple Investment to China
“They do their own supply chain study, sort of Apple internally, and realize that they're investing fifty-five billion dollars a year into Chinese factories, and once they've sort of established this, and they realize, like, how much that could mean to local an…”
McGee: Apple Funded Supply Ecosystem That Powered Huawei and Xiaomi
“Apple trained all of their suppliers, and then the suppliers in turn supplied Huawei, Xiaomi, Oppo, Vivo. So that's why Nokia couldn't keep up. It's that China had this amazing ecosystem built for the smartphone industry, all paid for by Apple.”
Taylor: Russia funded German environmental groups to shut down nuclear reactors
“This was sort of a theory for a long time, but it's actually proven now that this did happen in Europe over the last 10 years. So Russian groups funded far left environmental groups in Germany to shut the reactors down in order, you know, to make it so that Ge…”
Nucleus software analyzes embryo DNA to predict IQ, cancer risk, and traits
“So usually parents have a couple viable embryos, and now they can actually take the raw DNA files of them, upload to Nucleus, and we'll give you analysis on everything from cancers, to IQ, to eye color, to hair color, to schizophrenia risk.”
Only Anduril, Palantir, and SpaceX have delivered defense tech at scale
“Other than those three, there isn't really, like, a, like, unicorn VC-backed company that, like, has actually delivered things at scale for the Warfighter that doesn't really exist.”
Socher: You.com invented RAG at web scale before the term existed
“We realized just like with rag where we had invented rag already, we're doing it at a web scale, but it wasn't yet a term.”
Sadeghi: Scientific research already links genetics directly to intelligence
“At the frontier of science, we do already have associations with genetics and intelligence, and we really believe in giving these insights to customers.”
Mavrookas: China outbuilds the United States in shipbuilding 230 to one
“China outbuilds the US 230 to one.”
Mavrookas: China built over 1,000 commercial ships in 2024 versus five in the US
“They built over a thousand commercial ships last year, and the United States built five. I think this was 20, 24. Five. Like one, two, three, four, Five. Large, ocean-going commercial vessels.”
Mavrookas: South Korean and Japanese shipbuilders source modules and labor from China
“Our allies, South Korea and Japan, the next two largest shipbuilders in the world, they're actually, on the commercial side, they're actually getting a lot of their modules from China. They're getting a lot of their labor from China.”
Mavrookas: China launches ~30 warships annually versus 5 to 10 US ships
“We being the U.S. Launch about five to 10 military, meaning destroyer, cruiser, aircraft carrier, like straight naval vessel warship. China's probably doing about 30, so six to one, seven to one, somewhere in there.”
Mavrookas: US shipbuilding capacity currently sits at 100,000 gross tons
“That's our initial build out that 1.5 X's the United States shipbuilding capacity right now, which sits at a 100,000 gross tons.”
Mavrookas: Saronic achieved first ever autonomous combat search and rescue
“Take the Apache pilot rescue, for example, that was the first ever combat search and rescue done with an autonomous system.”
Mendler: Northwood achieves space-grade performance using standard cellular components
“We've been able to like actually make space grade performance out of Standard high volume cellular components.”
Beck: Branson poured $1.2B into Virgin Orbit before it went bankrupt
“And, you know, at that, at the time, our nearest competitor was Virgin Orbit, and that was funded by, you know, Sir Richard Branson. And in the end, I think Richard put 1.2 billion dollars into that company before it ultimately went bankrupt with a, you know, …”
Lamm: Woolly mice are second most genetically modified organisms behind dire wolves
“These are the second most genetically modified
Multicellular organisms on the planet after our direwolves.”
Lamm: ViaGen cloning efficiency reached 80% versus 2% industry norm
“Well, Viagen had like cloning efficiencies at 80%, or most people are at two percent, right?”
Lamm: Colossal could eradicate the screwworm problem in six to seven months
“Our solution, which is already made could eradicate the entire problem in every model that we've done in six to seven months.”
Monroe-Anderson says 90% of Russian Shahed drones are intercepted midair
“Now that's really coming true, where, like, 90% of the DeepStrike Shawhead drones that Russia is using are getting taken out of the sky before they can even hit a target.”
Monroe-Anderson: China is supplying drone components to both Ukraine and Russia
“China is supplying drones and components to both sides. So to Ukraine and to Russia, and they have by far the strongest drone and just electronics industrial base.”
China completely dominates PCB precursor chemicals used in US defense systems
“Printed circuit boards, they use precursor materials. The manufacturing uses precursor materials that is completely dominated by China. So, even if you go to one of these board shops in America that, that specializes in, you know, ITAR, Exquisite, like, they c…”
Monroe-Anderson: Autonomous drones in Ukraine broke when facing battlefield edge conditions
“I think that's one of the things that we've seen, especially with systems that went over and failed. I think it was a lot of the systems that are in theory supposed to be easier to use or more autonomous, but then they, like, met these edge conditions that exi…”
Fox: Most AI note-takers use AssemblyAI as voice infrastructure
“And so the reason, you know, most AI note takers are using assembly as the voice infrastructure is because our models are the most scalable, right?”
Fox: Callers hang up immediately if voice agents disclose they are AI
“If our customers, if they're building a voice agent and you disclose up front that you're an AI, people just hang up versus if you don't, people continue.”
Tony Kim: Chip companies have higher profit margins than software or pharmaceuticals
“They have the highest profitability of any company in the world of the sector is chip companies. They're higher margins than software, pharmaceuticals, industrials, telecom, anything.”
Friedberg: CBO Projects Social Security Runs Out of Money in Five Years
“We have five years till Social Security is bankrupt. That's not my assessment. That's the CBO score. Like, that's what the CBO says is gonna happen. Congressional Budget Office. When you look at how much is going to get paid out and what the pay in rate is, so…”
Friedberg: US billionaires hold $8T of $183T wealth while bottom 50% hold $4T
“And I was surprised that the billionaires had eight trillion dollars of the 183, and the bottom 50% have four trillion. That's a bad statistic. But it's not as crazy as you would think. And even if you make it a fifty million dollar net worth, it's 23 trillion…”
Desai: Hyperscalers are turning away top-50 enterprise customers due to capacity limits
“These hyperscalers, some of them, are running out of capacity, and they're running out of capacity, so this large customer in Texas, speaking to them, they have really good partnership with one of the hyperscalers. They wanted to move more workloads in cloud, …”
Patel: EU countries block French data centers to protect nuclear power
“Paris is you know, they have all this spare power. One of the funny things is like, they're like, oh, okay, let's build a bunch of data centers. But then Spain, Italy, Belgium the Netherlands and Germany All freaked out because it's like, oh wait, all this spa…”