The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 3,713 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 120 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Socialism Is Fundamentally Corrupt While Competitive Capitalism Works Exceedingly Well
“Socialism sucks. It is terrible. The only people who Do well in redistribution of wealth are the ones doing redistribution. Like it's fundamentally corrupt and there's not enough bad things I can say about socialism. So I think capitalism works exceedingly wel…”
Consumer AI Will Quickly Flush Out Fine-Print Business Models
“The willingness to put up with random obnoxious things like low quality or crappy terms or products that pretend to be something they're not, like all of that is just gonna get flushed out very quickly. And companies that have business models that are buried i…”
Younis: Applied Intuition will likely never operate in China
“China's the only country that I think we probably won't be in maybe ever, but certainly anytime soon.”
Miller: Public venture funds will become a multi-hundred-billion-dollar asset class
“I think that it's about creating like a multi hundred billion dollar category where you get millions of people investing in private tech companies and build this bridge between the two sides of the market.”
Miller: Every American will allocate 5% to public VC in 10 years
“I think that like 10 years from now, every single person in America will have five percent of their portfolio in like public venture capital. It'll be totally normal. It'll be like an ETF. It'll be just this thing that's standard and the public capital, so the…”
Miller predicts most mega venture firms like a16z will eventually go public
“The nature of these partnerships is eventually they want to monetize and the best way to monetize is go public. This happened in all the investment banks. They've all went public. And so Yeah, I mean, they'll, most of them will eventually go public, and then t…”
Miller predicts AI will displace 20% to 30% of white-collar jobs
“I think more than 20%, but less than 50. So like let's say 20 to 35 years, 20 to 30% of jobs are Not to, not, not just displaced, but also suppressed. So you don't make that marginal higher and that adds up to tens of millions of jobs.”
Del Buono: Most tech-focused RIAs have at most one or two professional investors
“So a lot of these firms do not have professional investors. So I often ask people as a quiz how many professional investors do you think are in, you know, RIA XYZ? And people will answer, I mean, percent, right? People answer me, 20%, 50%, 30%, but the number …”
Del Buono: Most Secondary Volume Flows Through Questionable SPVs
“The vast majority of the volume goes through these sort of questionable SPDs”
Del Buono: AI Startup Check Sizes Make Fund Scale Essential in Venture
“All asset management industries have some scale benefits to them. Venture traditionally had less and now has a lot. So if you're going to back a new AI startup, you can't show up with a million dollar check or two million dollar check that it's useless or let …”
Del Buono: Putting initial founder liquidity into friends' startups almost always fails
“I'll see someone with their very first liquidity, the very, very first liquidity, they take it and instead of doing something a little bit safe in case there's a rainy day, they turn around and they go put it in a bunch of like very early stage startups.
Often…”
Huffman: Pricing an IPO at a discount is best marketing spend
“If you go out at a lower price, and this is what I, the advice I generally give is go out at a lower price so you can have that momentum carry your price up. Everybody's happy. Your new investors are happy. Your employees will be happy. It costs you a little b…”
Huffman: Reddit data has trained every major LLM, with or without permission
“Reddit's data has been used to train every large language model you've heard of, some with and others without our permission, which has, you know, been a situation to navigate but with our biggest partners, Google and OpenAI, you know, we do it on purpose, and…”
Huffman: Reddit only uses ID-checking verification when coerced by governments
“There's others we use that actually check your ID. I don't love those, but we're compelled or coerced to use them by various governments.”
Huffman: Reddit is more productive post-COVID without return-to-office policy
“And we are way more productive now than we were before COVID. So you can't convince me that being in the office is the key to productivity. Maybe it is, but I think it's like lever number 10 behind like having a consistent strategy and having good leaders.”
Huffman: AI productivity gains will not decrease Reddit's engineering headcount
“No way. No way. No way. We are a building company. And so in order for engineering headcount to go down, we'd have to know everything we wanted to build. So let's say AI makes our engineers 50, a hundred percent, or even 10 X more productive. We'll just build …”
Alex Bouaziz believes Deel is undervalued at its current valuation
“I still think the business personally is, is undervalued, right?”
Multi-floor offices function effectively as remote companies, according to Bouaziz
“Most companies are remote. As soon as you start being on two floors, three floors, you don't know the people in your company. Whether they're sitting on the third floor or they're at home, it doesn't really make a difference to you, right?”
Bouaziz: Deel's regulatory infrastructure protects it from pure AI disruption
“Clearly we have AI tailwinds in terms of what we can offer our customers, right? And if you combine this with the regulatory work that we've done, which is really hard to reciprocate, like, you can see that it's the foundations of the business are really hard …”
Immerman: OpenAI and Anthropic added revenue equal to half of public cloud
“If you look at OpenAI and Anthropic alone, the two, those two companies added as much revenue last year as half of the public cloud universe, excluding the mag seven.”
Immerman: Rideshare market will grow by at least 10x in coming years
“And so the ride share market is going to grow by You know, at least in order of magnitude in the coming years.”
Immerman: Top 1% venture outcome will reach $40B in 8-10 years
“Every five years, that, that top one percent outcome doubles. And so, if you were to fast forward another, you know, eight to 10 years, That's forty billion is the top one percent outcome.”
Immerman: a16z can almost guarantee viral launches for founders
“We can go to an early stage founder and almost guarantee That their launch is going to go viral.”
Raanan: Seed-stage product ideas and technology are noise compared to founder quality
“The idea and the technology at this stage, at the seed stage, is, is noise. It's part of the entropy. It's actually not helping me make the right decision. The best decision is to just watch the individual and decide if that's the individual you want to partne…”
Raanan: True company importance is measured by practitioner dependence, not ARR
“An important company is not necessarily measured by revenues or ARR or valuation. It's about, it's measured by how much the market, how much practitioners depend on you. Do they consider you as a vendor, one of their trusted partners? And there are many compan…”
Raanan: The cybersecurity industry will face its darkest period this coming decade
“I hope I'm wrong, but I think I'm, we are going to face the darkest, darkest period in cyber security in the next.
10 years.”
Raanan: Future cyber warfare will be fought entirely by autonomous AI agents
“In 20 years, or 10 years,
I don't know.
But it's not tomorrow.
we are going to see threat actors who are programs, very, very smart, sophisticated, maybe self-aware, and we'll talk about self-awareness in a second threat actors, and the defenders would be, yo…”
Lin: Top companies will reach $10 trillion valuations within ten years
“Today we have companies that are worth four and a half to five trillion dollars. If you give it another five to 10 years, those companies continue to compound. It will be worth 10 trillion or more.”
Lin: The claim that code is no longer a moat is overstated
“And the very obvious statement is every single line of code that's generated has a marginal cost of zero, so therefore software, the lines of code, is no longer a moat. That's probably overstated.”
Alfred Lin: AI market is not zero-sum because intelligence generates revenue
“Our view is that it's not a zero sum game. And part of that is, there is really no price on intelligence. You, if you're more intelligent, if your system is more intelligent, if your product is more intelligent, is your company more intelligent and makes bette…”
Laffont: SaaS must re-accelerate with AI or re-rate to 20x GAAP earnings
“So one of two things are going to have to change. Either companies are going to have to benefit from AI and re-accelerate the top line. And I think if you, again, listen to the workday earnings call yesterday, Anil, the CEO, essentially said his job is to come…”
Laffont: AI threat hits SaaS terminal value, not current business operations
“The threat of AI for these companies isn't actually related to their current valuation or frankly, even their current business. It's more related to the terminal value of, okay, maybe some of these companies are not benefiting from AI today. They haven't re-ac…”
Laffont: No Coatue portfolio company plans to cut engineering staff due to AI
“What I can tell you is not a single one of the companies that we're kind of involved with is saying, wow, we're seeing so much more efficiency. We want to cut our engineering staff in half, right?”
Laffont: Initial TAM size is irrelevant compared to market expansion potential
“I have a personal view that I've developed, which is actually the size of the TAM is irrelevant. So I never listened to whenever an entrepreneur will pitch me a TAM, I really don't think about the TAM. I think about two things. I think about number one, Whatev…”
Nejatian proposed to Keith Rabois taking Opendoor private together to fix it
“My wife's plan, literally, genuinely, honestly, was that we would, like, sell everything we owned, leverage ourselves as much as we could to take Opendoor private, so we could fix it. So I called Keith back in, I think, April, and he was, hey man, I'm thinking…”
Opendoor paid a consulting firm $5M to advise cutting quality across operations
“The single largest expense on our income statement was millions of dollars paid to a well-known consulting firm whose advice can be approximated as the following. We paid him five million dollars for this. This voice was basically the following tweet. Do every…”
Opendoor replaced an 11-person manual home offer workflow entirely with AI
“So between the time, like you put your address in and you Got an offer. There'd be 11 human beings who touched that. That's insane. That's just an insane outcome. Like, today, zero human beings are in that loop in many of our flows. Like, AI does all of that.”
Opendoor's earnings livestream peaked at a record 55,000 viewers
“Our earnings was the most watched earnings in history. The last National Open House we did broke records for how many people watched it. No. Yeah, by a lot, but not by a lot. We should fact check this, but I think at one point we had 55,000 live viewers.”
Opendoor's press email auto-replies telling journalists to DM Kaz Nejatian on X
“There's no, like, we don't have a PR department. Like, if you email press at opendoor.com, get an email back saying, we don't have a PR department. If you want to talk to someone, DM Kaz on X.”
Nejatian mandated a one-week return-to-office despite Opendoor lacking physical office space
“I showed up on a Monday, my first Monday at work and I said, Hey everyone, by next Monday, we're back in offices. At that point, we didn't have offices. Like we didn't know where people were gonna go. So we had to like the team had to go sign leases, open up o…”
Blania: World has the world's largest crypto wallet by user count
“And so now we actually, we have the largest wallet in the world in terms of users.”
Blania: AI will soon drive 99.9% of all internet traffic
“Because I think like, 99.9% or something of all internet traffic will be AI driven.”
Blania: Combating bots is a lost cause; humans must prove humanity instead
“I think it's not about combating the bots because that will be a lost cause, but rather every human on these platforms will need some version of a proof of human and actually prove that their content is authentic.”
Blania: X will become unusable within two years without new technical solutions
“So I think my personal prediction, I might be wrong with this, but I think Platforms like X will not be usable. And like a matter of months, maximum two years if they don't come up with completely new technical solutions”
Blania: Humanity is in the last innings before superintelligence
“We are probably in the last innings before superintelligence.”
Blania: OpenAI wrote the biggest check in Merge Labs' seed round
“A large group of people, but the biggest check was OpenAI and then many of our friends, you know, some of the funds that have been involved here, many, many individuals, it's like a broad, like it's a class, like it's a large scale seed, but it is, from that p…”