The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 478 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 80 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Bhargava: Some GC AI roll-ups will reach $100M EBITDA under two years
“Some of the companies in the rollup will hit a hundred million of EBITDA and they're like less than two years old.”
Tusk: VCs who participate in political favor-trading will regret it
“From a long-term American standpoint, I actually think that we're gonna, VC as a sector, for those who participated in this, unless they just made so much money and only just care about how much money they have and nothing else, are gonna really regret it.”
Tusk: AI Will Cause 25 Years of Uncertainty and Job Losses
“In a 25 year span, we'll be able to look and say, oh, AI unlocked all these new industries that we can't conceive of today, and all of these jobs, just like the internet did, just like the automobile did, just like the steam engine did, and everything else. Bu…”
Clark: Some of the most valuable companies will be in hardware
“I am fairly confident that We are going to produce some of the world's most valuable companies in hardware over the next decade.”
Ulevitch predicts China will sever U.S. battery supply chain in conflict
“If they all come from China, and we ever get into a real conflict with China, whether it's an economic conflict or an actual kinetic conflict, like, They're going to cut us off.”
Serhant predicts Class B and C NYC offices will convert to residential
“I think what it does, though, is it makes it really, really hard to be class B or class C office, which are all going to turn residential for me.”
Barton: Marketing spend will shift from Meta to AI agents and Shopify
“So that 20% that I'm spending on marketing to, you know, maybe it was meta, is now gonna, like, that profit pool is gonna be more going toward a Shopify or the actual agent players themselves, OpenAI or Gemini.”
Barton: Any US computer-based job will likely be automated
“My view broadly is that any job that exists in the US where you work at a computer at some point will likely can be automated, including my job.”
Barton: AI-driven margin expansion could spark a multi-year stock market run
“Because AI is going to benefit all these companies and the stock market's going to go up. And we might be at the front of a multi-year amazing run in the stock market because these companies revenues are going to grow faster. Their costs are not going to be as…”
Barton predicts Meta will 3x in market cap in five years
“Like, I think Facebook is going to be, you know, a three X in five years.”
Gil: Marquee companies like Stripe and SpaceX may stay forever private
“There may be a subset of companies that are forever private, because they can afford to be. That may be Stripe, that may be SpaceX, that may be some other companies.”
Gil: 90% of people in the AI wave are in doomed companies
“Definitionally, most startups are going to fail. And this wave is going to be just like every other one. And the place where every founder and investor think they are is in the right companies, right? And the reality is most people aren't, right? 90% of people…”
Siddharth: Solving multimodality, reasoning, tool use, and coding yields ASI
“Turing's the world's leading research accelerator, working with all of these frontier labs to advance them along I would say the four pillars of superintelligence which is multimodality, reasoning, tool use, and coding. If you solve these four things, you will…”
Siddharth: AI will automate $30 trillion of global knowledge work
“This is like, if you look at those four dimensional, if you look at that four dimensional matrix, that's 30 trillion dollars of knowledge work that is going to be automated.”
Siddharth: Custom LLMs will allow investment firms to employ fewer analysts
“I think, like, the best firms are already doing this, ah, to help an investment analyst make better decisions faster, and eventually with significantly fewer people.”
Zach Dell: Solar and Storage Will Dominate Energy for 50 Years Due to Cost
“And the way I would describe the paradigm shift very simply is the last five decades of energy have been defined by coal and then natural gas. And the next five decades of energy will be defined by solar and battery storage. And by the way, it has nothing to d…”
Allen Control CEO: Electronic warfare cannot stop AI drones; kinetic defense required
“The countermeasures we were investing in as a country, like electronic warfare or like microwave technology. I don't think those are going to be like long-term sustainable for some of the new drones of the future. So we saw that early and started to work on ki…”
Allen Control CEO: Future warfare will be robot-on-robot, replacing human soldiers
“I mean, it's going to robot on robot action. So like these new products are so lethal that it's tough for like people to be on the battlefield of the future. So that's where it's headed. It's not like exactly augmenting soldiers, like some people's vision, but…”
Chaddha: AI is a 100x era creating many $100B companies
“And in the AI era, overall, it's a hundred X opportunity. I've been lucky to be involved in the web era, the mobile, the cloud, the social, the not so good eras. And then the AI, I think those eras were a 10 X opportunity. This is a hundred X opportunity. So t…”
Chaddha: AI and vibe coding will create 3 billion programmers
“Using AI, I think everybody, eight billion people in the world will be programmers because they'll vibe code. That's why this is a hundred X opportunity. It's really a hundred X because hundred X times thirty million is three billion. So there will be three bi…”
Chaddha: Vibe coding companies at $100M revenue will quickly reach $10B
“Let's look at vibe coding. Companies are doing a hundred million in revenue, two hundred million in revenues. They're going to be doing ten billion in revenues. We'll blink and that's what they will be.”
Chaddha: Only 1% to 3% of hyped AI startups will survive
“We could go from all these hyped up companies. Some will keep growing, but maybe that will be one percent, two percent, three percent of the hype companies. But a lot of them are making their lives really, really hard.”
Chaddha: AI startups will capture 90% of VC funding within a year
“I think it's going to be 90% in a year.”
Chaddha: Non-AI startups will take 10x longer to raise capital
“Companies are going to take 10 X the time to raise money if they are not an AI native company.”
Chaddha: AI teammates represent a $3T-$6T opportunity over 5-7 years
“And that market is a massive market because the spend
On knowledge workers globally is 30 trillion, and AI will do 10 to 20% of the work of what humans do to offload them.
That's a three to six trillion dollar opportunity over the next five to seven years”
Shadbolt: Quantum computers will solve simulations impossible on classical supercomputers
“Our conventional supercomputers suck at predicting the properties of these microscopic things. And that happens to be exactly the set of problems where a quantum computer is perfectly suited and where we will solve problems that can never be solved by any conv…”
Shadbolt: AI will not dramatically accelerate PsiQuantum's hardware timelines
“So no, I don't think the AI is going to dramatically reduce our timelines. Currently our timelines are mostly determined as far as I can tell by infrastructure, right? We're breaking ground on these sites in Australia and Chicago. These are roughly a hundred m…”
Shadbolt: Quantum computing companies are far more likely to go to zero
“Yeah, I think that there is a serious prospect that these companies do that, but there is a much greater chance that they go to zero is basically my simple way of putting it.”
Shadbolt: Quantum commercial adoption will precede cryptographic security risks
“You should get like an economic early warning sign essentially where you should see quantum computing companies Doing commercially impactful things, making money, and then eventually scaling towards systems that are big enough to be cryptographically relevant.”
Agrawal: OpenAI's Consumer Business Could Reach $200B in Annual Revenue
“We think over time,
The number of users could go up to three to four billion users. We think on the monetization side, over time, it could go from 10 today to 60, 70 dollars per user per year, which is where Meta and Google and other large consumer platforms a…”
Oetting: Genomic medicine will transform economy and lives almost as much as AI
“I think there's going to be almost as much of a change in, like, the way that our economy and our lives work from genomic medicines as from AI.”
Oetting: AI Productivity Will Substantially Mitigate US Debt in 20–30 Years
“I believe over the next 20 or 30 years it will make a huge difference. Yes. I just think in the short run, there's investments that need to be made to realize that. And I think that, you know, the way that our system deals with that is by adding to the debt.”
Nolan: AI power demand by 2030 projected to match entire current US grid
“And I, you know, you look at some of these projections of AI power consumption over the next five years, and by 2030, it's predicted to basically consume all the, equivalent to all the power that's on the US grid today.”
Enterprises will bear direct legal and financial liability for AI agent failures
“So if it hallucinates a refund policy, if it spews Nazi propaganda, if it leaks your customers' data, if it discriminates against the people you're hiring, the enterprises are going to be on the hook.”
Little: Private Capital Will Flee Defense Tech if Anduril and Saronic Fail
“The part that worries me the most is, I want the Andrel, Ceronics, and Sail Drones, though, to do well. Because if they don't do well, private capital will recognize, like they did previously, that this isn't a good market to be in.”
Power: There will not be more SpaceXs or new defense primes
“I don't think there's going to be more SpaceX's. I don't think there's going to be more Andrews, you know, of like new defense primes or neo primes, and I don't think there's going to be more than a handful of large industrials companies.”
Hadrian plans to acquire or outcompete YC's new hardware startups
“The second thing is, I think it'll generate a bunch of great acquisitions for us. If any of them grow too fast in the category that we're going to enter, we have this phrase internally, which is we're either going to scoop them up, or we're going to bonk them.”
Brex will surpass Concur's $1.5B revenue mark through interchange monetization
“If Brex continues on our current run rate, like we're going to eclipse that much, much faster by winning their customers, but monetizing through the interchange, not through generic software revenue.”
Altman: AI will do tens of millions of US jobs by 2030
“I think AI will be doing tens of millions of jobs in the US by then that are currently being done by a person.”
McCord: Not enough defense program cuts for startups to win big programs
“When I look at the sort of overall budgetary picture, like there's just not, there's not a enough. Of these big program cuts, I think for all of the amazing new companies building out there to like really get the big program or record wins that they want over …”
Sadeghi: Genomic sequencing, analysis, and editing will create a trillion-dollar industry
“And when you think about the next 10 years, you know, as I alluded to earlier, sequencing technology is kind of cheaper, analysis is kind of cheaper, understand the genome is going to dramatically increase, and genome editing is going to become much cheaper. A…”
Sharky claims Whop can reach $10B GMV with just 10-20 engineers
“Like, I think we can, 10 X our volume, go up to, I don't know, ten billion plus GMV run rate with 10 to 20 people.”
Sharky predicts AI will end the era of thousand-engineer tech companies
“I think the days of tech companies scaling to thousands of engineers are behind us because what I've found is a smaller, more compact team of very talented people that understand how to break down problems and naturally use AI to go faster.”
Startups will soon jump directly from seed rounds to Series C
“Like, yes, you'll probably have to raise again, but it'll just be interesting, and I think we'll see multiple examples of, like, a company raised a seed, and then a company raised, like, a Series C.”
Peters: The largest consumer health companies will own fintech and underwriting
“What does the biggest health consumer health company in the world look like?
And it's probably some combination of,
Becoming the fintech layer and owning the, you know, insurance and the underwriting, the ability to actually cover and figure out, you know, t…”
The defense tech market will support only one or two next-generation primes
“There's not going to be, like, five Andrels. Like, there's probably going to be an Andrel. There may be, like, a number two. That's probably about it, you know, in that sphere of, like, next generation Defense Prime.”
Garrett: A wave of tech IPOs will begin in 2025 and continue through 2026
“And I think you'll see a wave companies going out starting this year and continuing through next year.”
Garrett: Defense tech value will accrue to a few winner-take-all companies
“It's not like enterprise software where there's going to be hundreds of great companies that go after a multi-trillion dollar TAM in defense tech, multi-trillion dollar TAM, but I think it's gonna be a much smaller number of companies where all the value accru…”