why aren't all 21 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Brands failing to match Amazon's two-hour delivery will eventually go bankrupt
“And if you don't fix it, if you don't solve it, if you're not able to at least get parity to Amazon's value proposition of two-hour delivery, you will go bankrupt.”
Opinion
Deeter: Cloud leaders are superseding FAANG as tech growth drivers
“Our thesis internally is that those horizons and the growth rates of those markets are starting to pull back, and that you see a changing of the guard. And it's really the cloud basket, and we pulled out six names in particular with Microsoft, Twilio, Shopify,…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Liu: Microsoft Lists is a direct attempt to replicate Airtable
“Microsoft has a product called list that is. In many ways, like a direct, you know, kind of attempt to replicate air table. We think we have a lot of product advantages over that product, but you know, it's a much more direct play against air table. Google has…”
Insight
Amazon's broad but shallow services ultimately drive customers to specialized alternatives
“Amazon tends to, they're doing a lot of things, but nothing super deep. They're successful a lot with the services that are broad and don't have to be super deep. But the ones they have that are more, not as deep, they tend to get customers excited about them,…”
Opinion
Amazon and Azure's on-premise cloud offerings remain relatively subscale
“Every time that Amazon or Azure or others have launched these sort of on-prem versions of their clouds, these are all relatively subscale versus just the pure public cloud infrastructure benefits that, that, that customers are getting.”
Opinion
Bansal: Only about ten companies globally excel at software delivery and CI/CD
“There are only, like, maybe 10 companies in the world who are very good in software delivery, where, like, you know, CI, CD, software delivery, their shipping code very fast, and these are, like, your Googles, and Facebooks, and Amazons, and Netflix, and they …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Nahigian: Amazon Captured More Value with AWS than Entire On-Prem Storage Market
“Amazon actually wasn't built as a cloud business. It wasn't built as a storage company. It was an incumbent e-commerce business. They just happened to launch AWS, and they ended up capturing Way more value just them in and of themselves than the entire on-prem…”
Disclosure
Bernshteyn: Amazon manages tens of billions of dollars through Coupa
“You know, it's interesting with Shopify and Amazon. I mean, these are our customers, you know, Amazon runs the tens of billions they managed through Coupa.”
Opinion
Ferrara: AWS is arguably Amazon's biggest value driver toward $1T market cap
“And so, you know, I think we've seen over the last decade that AWS now is arguably the biggest driver of value for Amazon as they are approaching this trillion dollar market cap, ah, market cap milestone.”
Opinion
Gunderson: Mapbox is the default location platform like Stripe for payments
“When a developer goes out and is gonna build something, they're gonna go get a cloud provider, like, Amazon, or if you're going to use Payments, you might use Stripe, or if you're going to use Notifications, Twilio. But if you're going to use Locations, you're…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tunguz: Google, Microsoft, and Amazon will dominate foundational AI APIs
“Google, Microsoft, Amazon, they will be releasing the APIs that lots of companies will be building on, competing with them. You may want to compete with them, but we will likely not invest in that because it's a very challenging go to market strategy.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Building 79 features for PayPal unlocked Google and Amazon sales
“Luckily, Alfonso decided to take the UX researcher persona, which was the PayPal option, and, you know, built, I believe, 79 of those features, and that enabled the team to go and sell the same proposition to people like Google, Facebook, Amazon, eBay.”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Bedecarre: Big tech leased 18.4M square feet of office space during pandemic
“Our data shows 18.4 million square feet of leases by big tech, Amazon, you know Facebook, Google, Microsoft, Microsoft, et cetera. That's 312 football fields of offices in the US for office.”
Assertion Supported
Snowflake raised $1B+ to fight Amazon and Google on price
“There was a similar company called Snowflake Computing. So they took a route of two by raising one billion dollar plus.”
Assertion Partly supported
Deeter: Two of Top Three Global Companies Appointed Cloud Leaders as CEOs
“It's telling that two of the world's top three market cap companies on the planet have both decided to place their cloud leaders in charge of their entire business.”
Assertion Supported
Lawson: Domino's stock outperformed Google, Amazon, and Facebook over the past decade
“The Domino's stock since in the last decade has outperformed like Google and Amazon and like Facebook.”
Insight
Bernshteyn: Enterprise platforms must balance large-customer complexity with small-customer usability
“What we learned from our largest customers, Amazon being one and others is how to support massive complexity in the simplest way possible. And what we learned from some of our smaller customers is how to keep things very intuitive and user centric, but at the …”
Assertion Contradicted
Ferrara: Amazon 2019 earnings transcript mentioned AWS 78 times and retail twice
“So this analyst, Artie Levy from CNBC, took the Amazon earnings transcript from earlier this year, and he actually counted the words, counted the number of times that words like AWS or retail or Alexa were mentioned. Retail was mentioned twice. That's it. And …”
Assertion Supported
AWS Route 53 supported only 7 of Algolia's 12 regions in 2014
“Like we had at the moment of the launch, 12 regions. Amazon was covering only seven of them. So we were not able to do the geo routing for all our customers, all our region.”
Assertion Supported
Deeter: Amazon earnings release referenced AWS 78 times versus twice for retail
“78 times in the AWS, ah, AWS was referenced in the Amazon press release and earnings announcement. Twice for retail.”
Assertion Supported
Seibel: Twitch took years to find product-market fit before $1B acquisition
“Twitch sold for a billion dollars, but most people don't really understand the backstory. You know, Twitch started as an online reality TV show. And if you look at the story, it started in 2006, and by 2012, it was worth 24 dollars. By 2014, it was worth a bil…”