.ai

also referred to as: ai · ais · artificial intelligence

1 statements across 1 episodes · 63 bullish · 109 bearish · 16 people on the record · first statement Jun 12, 2023 by Brit Morin · across every show →

Everything said about .ai, oldest first

Jun 12, 2023 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Brit Morin: AI will be regulated faster than crypto was
“And I think like I would imagine the time it took to start regulating crypto more efficiently is, is going to be longer than the time it takes to regulate AI, just because of the pace it's moving.”
Brit Morin Jun 12, 2023 ▶ 35:25 #1: Apple's head scratchy VR rollout; VR vs. AI in the interface wars; crypto's 'nothing burger'? · More or Less Podcast
Jun 16, 2023 bearish
Opinion
Lessin: AI is the nail in the coffin for the public web
“Like, I basically think the public web is dead, right? The internet, it's just dead. And like, AI is the nail in the coffin because there's no economic model anymore to publish content.”
Sam Lessin Jun 16, 2023 ▶ 10:49 #2: Reddit and the death of the public internet; the end of the VC "epoch" · More or Less Podcast
Jun 16, 2023 neutral
Assertion Supported
Lessin: Startups are actively trying to buy musicians' AI voice rights
“There are a bunch of companies out there trying to, like, get music artists today to, like, sell their, like, voice rights for AI.”
Sam Lessin Jun 16, 2023 ▶ 41:06 #2: Reddit and the death of the public internet; the end of the VC "epoch" · More or Less Podcast
Jun 23, 2023 bearish
Opinion
Dave Morin: Exuberance around AI far exceeds current technological capability
“I also think that people's exuberance around this is far exceeding what is possible with the technology today, and there is a theoretical future where your ability to create a lot more software with the same number of software engineers that you have today is …”
Dave Morin Jun 23, 2023 ▶ 22:04 #3: Mr. Beast's burger bust and will M&A ever return? · More or Less Podcast
Jun 30, 2023 bearish
Opinion
Sam Lessin: AI and LLMs Feel Fringy and Lack Clear Cultural Direction
“Yes, there's AI, and, like, AI's gonna end the world, but, like, that's actually, I think, at this point, like, feeling more fringy. Like, people are excited about LLMs in various ways, but it's not like a, it's not as cultural a movement as it was, like, a wh…”
Sam Lessin Jun 30, 2023 ▶ 39:43 #4: MMA, M&A and Misfits; Silicon Valley's weird cultural moment · More or Less Podcast
Aug 18, 2023 neutral
Insight
Dave Morin: AI is still in its early command line phase
“We're in the command line phase of this and like the operating systems and the word processors and the spreadsheets for this stuff have like not even remotely been created yet.”
Dave Morin Aug 18, 2023 ▶ 48:35 #10: You should kill your startup, What replaces globalization · More or Less Podcast
Aug 25, 2023 bullish
Opinion
Sam Lessin: Crypto, not AI, will actually disrupt incumbent tech giants
“And I think if there's anything that's going to actually disrupt the tech ecosystem in the world, it will come from the crypto side, not the AI side, which just doubles down existing incumbents.”
Sam Lessin Aug 25, 2023 ▶ 47:23 #11: Why hybrid work doesn’t work, long live the phone call · More or Less Podcast
Sep 1, 2023 neutral
Opinion
Sam Lessin: AI is fundamentally a communist technology and crypto is free-market
“I mean, at the highest level, like, I have to give credit, even though I wish I didn't have to Peter Thiel on this, because he's right about it, right? Where he's like, look, fundamentally, AI is communist. Right. And crypto is like free market as a technology…”
Sam Lessin Sep 1, 2023 ▶ 45:33 #12: Inside the VC brain · More or Less Podcast
Sep 22, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sam Lessin: Meta, Google, and Amazon will be uncapped AI winners
“The big platforms, the Facebooks, sorry, the Metas, the Googles, the Amazons, are really going to be obviously huge winners from AI, and there's no cap on how big they can get anymore.”
Sam Lessin Sep 22, 2023 ▶ 29:46 #15: Instacart’s Fake IPO and Why Hiring in Tech Is So Broken · More or Less Podcast
Sep 29, 2023 neutral
Assertion Supported
Lessin: WGA strike deal lets studios experiment broadly with AI
“Writer's strike ended with some concessions on AI, but essentially the studios can use AI broadly for experimentation, but there's still going to be a person, a writer attached in name.”
Jessica Lessin Sep 29, 2023 ▶ 43:03 #16: Why Your AI Startup is Probably Already Dead · More or Less Podcast
Sep 29, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Belsky predicts AI agents will protect users from AI-driven harms
“Agents are going to save us from all the concerns we have about AI, because a lot of the concerns around AI.”
Scott Belsky Sep 29, 2023 ▶ 28:03 #16: Why Your AI Startup is Probably Already Dead · More or Less Podcast
Oct 20, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sam Lessin: AI Will Create Billionaires From Five-Person Niche Software Teams
“My basic model for AI is I think it's gonna make a ton of people like billionaires on niche software applications in like all sorts of cool ways. Like it's a great place. There's never been a better time to be a five person team and make an absolute fortune.”
Sam Lessin Oct 20, 2023 ▶ 50:56 #19: Answering for Misinformation: The New York Times Needs to be Held To Account · More or Less Podcast
Oct 20, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sam Lessin: AI And Anti-AI Detection Tools Will Fail Symmetrically
“There's not going to be AI, anti AI detectors that work. It's a war of attrition”
Sam Lessin Oct 20, 2023 ▶ 23:07 #19: Answering for Misinformation: The New York Times Needs to be Held To Account · More or Less Podcast
Nov 10, 2023 bearish
Opinion
Brit Morin: AI sports betting is only a short-term opportunity
“That's like a very short-term win. Yeah, this, like, isn't going to last forever.”
Brit Morin Nov 10, 2023 ▶ 34:01 #22: Your GPT Will Make More Money Than Your Substack? Please Tell Us More… · More or Less Podcast
Nov 10, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sam Lessin: AI progress is asymptoting with no major breakthroughs coming
“And I think I'm, as you know, extremely skeptical in the, like, this is some sort of like, this is asymptoting. Like we know what this looks like and it's going to be useful and like, it's good. I don't think there's some like major next breakthrough.”
Sam Lessin Nov 10, 2023 ▶ 30:50 #22: Your GPT Will Make More Money Than Your Substack? Please Tell Us More… · More or Less Podcast
Nov 10, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dave Morin: AI-empowered small teams will challenge standard VC models
“There's all of these new tools that the AI revolution is putting out into the ether. That's that, Sam, I think you're very right. Are going to empower the small business. They're going to empower the small team of people to make a lot of cashflow to make reall…”
Dave Morin Nov 10, 2023 ▶ 49:31 #22: Your GPT Will Make More Money Than Your Substack? Please Tell Us More… · More or Less Podcast
Nov 10, 2023
Insight
Sam Lessin: AI will manage humans, not the other way around
“No, the opposite. Like AI is the manager and people are the doers.”
Sam Lessin Nov 10, 2023 ▶ 35:58 #22: Your GPT Will Make More Money Than Your Substack? Please Tell Us More… · More or Less Podcast
Nov 17, 2023 bullish
Insight
Lessin: AI Empowers Big Platforms and Micro-Startups Over Mid-Sized Firms
“AI clearly benefits the really big platforms. I think we can all, I think we all agree with that, right? Like if you're a huge platform, you're going to make bank, right? Cause it's just obvious how to slot in and make your ads more performant or like things l…”
Sam Lessin Nov 17, 2023 ▶ 16:33 #23: Why (and How) SMBs and Creators Will Win With AI, the New Financing Contracts, and More · More or Less Podcast
Nov 17, 2023 negative
Opinion
Sam Lessin: Jobs Made Dramatically More Efficient by AI Are Probably Stupid
“If you ever have a job where like AI can make you more efficient dramatically, your job is Probably stupid.”
Sam Lessin Nov 17, 2023 ▶ 46:02 #23: Why (and How) SMBs and Creators Will Win With AI, the New Financing Contracts, and More · More or Less Podcast
Nov 17, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Brit Morin: Middle America Companies Won't Adopt AI for One to Two Years
“These middle America companies, I think, will not catch on to the AI stuff for a year or two.”
Brit Morin Nov 17, 2023 ▶ 46:51 #23: Why (and How) SMBs and Creators Will Win With AI, the New Financing Contracts, and More · More or Less Podcast
Nov 17, 2023 bearish
Insight
Lessin: When everyone's productivity rises in competitive markets, income declines
“And so the reality is, yeah, sure, your output is up, but, like, everyone's output is up, and it's competitive market, so actually, Your income is down.”
Sam Lessin Nov 17, 2023 ▶ 48:28 #23: Why (and How) SMBs and Creators Will Win With AI, the New Financing Contracts, and More · More or Less Podcast
Nov 17, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lessin: Offshore Workers in Developing Nations Will Be Displaced by AI
“Who loses out of that are all the people in Indonesia who see this stuff for you, right? So it's like the lower middle class. Yeah, those guys are all screwed, right? Like, if that's, like, the level of automation that we're realistically talking about is, lik…”
Sam Lessin Nov 17, 2023 ▶ 19:26 #23: Why (and How) SMBs and Creators Will Win With AI, the New Financing Contracts, and More · More or Less Podcast
Dec 1, 2023 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lessin: AI tools for rehearsing difficult conversations will be a massive space
“Like, if you told me that, like, the future is, like, there's, you know, you do use this stuff to be, like, I'm gonna fire someone. It's, like, here's what I'm gonna say. And you're like, all right, game, what are they gonna say back? And you, like, game theor…”
Sam Lessin Dec 1, 2023 ▶ 29:39 #25: TikTok, Porn and The Immediate Risks of AI · More or Less Podcast
Dec 1, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lessin: TikTok's AI will defeat California's media literacy school programs
“I have to believe that forget AGI, the very, very dirty version of AI that we have with TikTok will defeat the California public schools education program on what is real and what is not.”
Sam Lessin Dec 1, 2023 ▶ 10:47 #25: TikTok, Porn and The Immediate Risks of AI · More or Less Podcast
Dec 1, 2023 neutral
Insight
Lessin: AI Accelerates Image Modification but Does Not Fundamentally Change It
“AI absolutely elevates it. It makes it easier. It makes it more accessible, but it doesn't really fundamentally change the game. It just accelerates it.”
Sam Lessin Dec 1, 2023 ▶ 23:15 #25: TikTok, Porn and The Immediate Risks of AI · More or Less Podcast
Dec 1, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lessin: People will eventually ignore extreme AI porn out of boredom
“We'll see a bunch of weird shit and, like, weird porn. And, like, it's gonna get super extreme and strange, and, like, most people will just, like, turn it off because it's boring.”
Sam Lessin Dec 1, 2023 ▶ 43:40 #25: TikTok, Porn and The Immediate Risks of AI · More or Less Podcast
Dec 8, 2023 neutral
Insight
Dave Morin: Crypto multiplies hype beyond Web 2.0 by financializing everything
“I would argue, Sam, that it has a cult multiplier. Because maybe, you know, web two and social were hype generating technologies where people got really, really excited, and then the technology itself made even more information spread, so people got even more …”
Dave Morin Dec 8, 2023 ▶ 33:58 #26: Google Gemini, Meet Crypto-Cyber-Crystals · More or Less Podcast
Dec 22, 2023 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Britt Morin: Humans will lose cognitive memory in 2024 due to AI
“And I think next year we're also going to start losing our memory. And I think we're going to lose our memory more because AI is going to start handling so much stuff for us and remembering stuff for us.”
Brit Morin Dec 22, 2023 ▶ 44:59 #28: What We Got Right and Wrong in ’23 and Calls for ’24 · More or Less Podcast
Dec 22, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sam Lessin: Adobe will dominate the integration of AI in creative tools
“Adobe's gonna crush it on AI. We've said this repeatedly since the early days. Like, the Adobe of AI is Adobe, right?”
Sam Lessin Dec 22, 2023 ▶ 9:34 #28: What We Got Right and Wrong in ’23 and Calls for ’24 · More or Less Podcast
Dec 22, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Jessica Lessin: AI power constraints will reshape tech more than model improvements
“Would be a lot more attention on the Power behind AI that is required, and I think that's gonna, like, reorder the AI landscape more than, like, is GPT 3.9, you know, different from Gemini 7.2, right?”
Jessica Lessin Dec 22, 2023 ▶ 1:00:10 #28: What We Got Right and Wrong in ’23 and Calls for ’24 · More or Less Podcast
Dec 22, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Britt Morin: AI productivity gains will drive continued corporate layoffs
“The last one I'll say is that I do think AI layoffs will continue happening in earnest. Like, I think people will start to have layoffs because of the productivity structures of their workforces.”
Brit Morin Dec 22, 2023 ▶ 49:56 #28: What We Got Right and Wrong in ’23 and Calls for ’24 · More or Less Podcast
Jan 12, 2024
Disclosure
Britt Morin: Plans to launch a new AI product monthly in 2024
“I think that I will try to start a new product, not company, because that's what, I don't need like bank accounts, Every month of twenty-twenty-four using AI and like showing people how to use capital efficiency in AI to start companies faster.”
Brit Morin Jan 12, 2024 ▶ 1:16 #29: Is the Year of Startup Austerity Over? What Can Save the News Business? · More or Less Podcast
Feb 2, 2024 bearish
Insight
Lessin: AI makes expensive content cheap, causing audiences to stop caring
“There's a whole economy of how much did you actually invest in something, and therefore how do I interact with it? People, to Casey's point, are subconsciously unbelievably sophisticated at, right? And so the more you understand that, and that's why I think th…”
Sam Lessin Feb 2, 2024 ▶ 55:52 #32: Taylor Swift vs. MrBeast w/ Casey Neistat and Ricky Van Veen · More or Less Podcast
Feb 2, 2024 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Neistat: Creators with Unique Perspectives Will Be Valued More Due to AI
“And it's going to force me to focus on the one thing that I can do uniquely because I have a unique perspective, just like, you know, every, you know, musician or filmmaker or photographer who has a unique perspective, they will be valued more because everythi…”
Casey Neistat Feb 2, 2024 ▶ 45:46 #32: Taylor Swift vs. MrBeast w/ Casey Neistat and Ricky Van Veen · More or Less Podcast
Feb 2, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Morin: Audiences will accept AI creators for utilitarian DIY and cooking content
“Like DIY video. That is, can be AI and people won't care because they want the, I want to see how they baked the pie. I don't fucking care if she's AI or not.”
Brit Morin Feb 2, 2024 ▶ 52:59 #32: Taylor Swift vs. MrBeast w/ Casey Neistat and Ricky Van Veen · More or Less Podcast
Feb 2, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Neistat: AI avatars will never close the authenticity gap with real humans
“So you said it's not a hundred percent you, but it's 60% you. So maybe in two years, they'll get it to be like 80% you, and then they'll get it to 90%, then 95%, 97 point. They're never going to close that Gap.”
Casey Neistat Feb 2, 2024 ▶ 51:01 #32: Taylor Swift vs. MrBeast w/ Casey Neistat and Ricky Van Veen · More or Less Podcast
Feb 2, 2024 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Neistat: Generative AI Will Steamroll Bottom 90% of Content Creators
“Broadly, I think that it's going to just steamroll the bottom 90% of creators, because the bottom 90% of creators make content that's either, you know, it's made to look like someone else's, or sort of trying to emulate someone else that don't know what to do,…”
Casey Neistat Feb 2, 2024 ▶ 44:47 #32: Taylor Swift vs. MrBeast w/ Casey Neistat and Ricky Van Veen · More or Less Podcast
Feb 9, 2024 positive
Insight
Brian Singerman says founders are moving past the AI company label
“For a while, I think the pendulum was already being on the shift, but for a while, it was close to 100% Of companies would say AI or LLM by, you know, minute two of the pitch or page one of the deck. And I think that that's changed. It's now just you know, a t…”
Brian Singerman Feb 9, 2024 ▶ 50:24 #33: Yes/No, Vision Pro? w/Special Guest Brian Singerman, Founders Fund · More or Less Podcast
Feb 23, 2024 negative
Opinion
Sam Lessin: OpenAI's top strength is marketing, not artificial intelligence
“In credit to OpenAI, I think the thing that OpenAI is best in the world at right now is not AI, it's marketing.”
Sam Lessin Feb 23, 2024 ▶ 41:55 #35: 2024 IPO Dreams, Apple's Sports Game and Reddit's Biz Gamble · More or Less Podcast
Mar 8, 2024 bearish
Opinion
Sam Lessin: The AI revolution is fake outside of narrow applications
“I don't think the AI, I think the AI revolution is fake. We all know this.”
Sam Lessin Mar 8, 2024 ▶ 2:36 #37: TikTok's Latest Crisis, Elon's Emails, AI Monopolies · More or Less Podcast
Mar 22, 2024 neutral
Insight
Sam Lessin: Incumbents will capture AI value simply through higher profitability
“The big companies that have Distribution and data and business models, they generally just get more profitable, but that's about it.”
Sam Lessin Mar 22, 2024 ▶ 13:02 #39: How (Not?) to Exit Your AI Company, Analyzing the New Google-Apple Tie Up · More or Less Podcast
Mar 22, 2024 neutral
Insight
Sam Lessin: Big Tech burning $100B on AI is worth it for downside protection
“The reality is, if any of these companies light even a hundred billion dollars on fire, Right. For downside protection of missing something, it's worth it to them.”
Sam Lessin Mar 22, 2024 ▶ 15:52 #39: How (Not?) to Exit Your AI Company, Analyzing the New Google-Apple Tie Up · More or Less Podcast
Apr 5, 2024 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sam Lessin: Lin-Manuel Miranda will face more competition due to AI
“Lin-Manuel might have more competition from less advanced creators, right, because of AI for the original breakthrough.”
Sam Lessin Apr 5, 2024 ▶ 12:53 #41: Is AI Killing Media? · More or Less Podcast
Apr 5, 2024 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lessin: Hollywood believes AI makes truly original stories more valuable
“The creative world basically thinks AI is, it's just gonna make sourcing the truly, truly original stories that much more important.”
Jessica Lessin Apr 5, 2024 ▶ 5:07 #41: Is AI Killing Media? · More or Less Podcast
Apr 5, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Jessica Lessin: Endless AI-Generated Creator Content Is a Sure Bet for Engagement
“And so then you add like, add AI in and all of a sudden you can take The 20 minutes of original video you produce a week as a vlogger, right, and turn it, I mean, take all the then behind the scenes and then, and just make that something that doesn't end. Of c…”
Jessica Lessin Apr 5, 2024 ▶ 39:28 #41: Is AI Killing Media? · More or Less Podcast
Apr 5, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sam Lessin: Generative AI content will be homogenizing, not original
“I think there's a very strong argument that it's very homogenizing. You know, yes, you'll get weirder and weirder porn, but it will all hit the same beats, right, that, like, have been trained on the underlying data.”
Sam Lessin Apr 5, 2024 ▶ 6:45 #41: Is AI Killing Media? · More or Less Podcast
Apr 12, 2024 negative
Opinion
Lessin: AI is a deeply communist technology against the free market
“AI is like a deeply communist technology, right? It is against the free market. It's again, like in, in every way, shape, or form.”
Sam Lessin Apr 12, 2024 ▶ 22:36 #42: OpenAI, IP Theft and a New Incentive Structure for the Internet · More or Less Podcast
Apr 19, 2024 bearish
Opinion
Sam Lessin: Pinterest is the company most vulnerable to AI disruption
“See Pinterest and you see those things as a company that is most vulnerable to, like, AI.”
Sam Lessin Apr 19, 2024 ▶ 18:02 #43: TikTok’s New App, Tesla’s Sunken Stock, Are Tech Workers Leaving Silicon Valley For Good? · More or Less Podcast
Apr 26, 2024 positive
Opinion
Jessica Lessin: Reid Hoffman Is the Most Heavily Invested AI VC
“He's also the most invested in AI, which is saying a lot because everyone's invested in AI.”
Jessica Lessin Apr 26, 2024 ▶ 15:06 #44: The $1B AI Girlfriend Market, the Tech Hedge Fund Fallout and Why VCs Can’t Quit AI · More or Less Podcast
May 3, 2024 negative
Opinion
Sam Lessin calls Silicon Valley AI juror hype asinine
“If you put the wrong Silicon Valley person on this podcast, they'd give you some asinine thing about how AI will be the jury in the future, and then they'll do it gleefully. They'll be like, and good news, we'll have better jurors because they'll be AI based, …”
Sam Lessin May 3, 2024 ▶ 4:47 #45: How Tech Cos. Quit the Culture Wars · More or Less Podcast
May 17, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sam Lessin: Writing PR press releases will be eliminated by AI
“So one business you shouldn't get into that will be taken out by AI is writing PR press releases. That's not a business anymore.”
Sam Lessin May 17, 2024 ▶ 35:25 #47: Algorithm-Proof Media and New Twists in the AI War · More or Less Podcast
May 17, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Brit Morin: Talking to AI While Brushing Teeth Won't Be Weird by End of 2024
“And like I said, my prediction for 20, 24 is that by the end of this year, it's not going to be so weird to just be talking to yourself or talking to your AI while you're in the bathroom brushing your teeth.”
Brit Morin May 17, 2024 ▶ 2:39 #47: Algorithm-Proof Media and New Twists in the AI War · More or Less Podcast
May 17, 2024 negative
Insight
Jessica Lessin: Media Companies Riding Tech Waves Create No Lasting Value
“We've seen a lot of media companies whose thesis has been to ride a tech wave, and that has, by definition, is not where value will be created. And that doesn't mean you don't leverage new tech waves, turbocharge your superpower as an organization, but it just…”
Jessica Lessin May 17, 2024 ▶ 46:09 #47: Algorithm-Proof Media and New Twists in the AI War · More or Less Podcast
May 24, 2024 negative
Assertion Supported
Jessica Lessin: Slack defaulted users into training its AI on their data
“Slack Auto defaulted all of its users into using all of their data, their messages, everything to train their AI. The way to opt out was to email, email an address with a certain subject line”
Jessica Lessin May 24, 2024 ▶ 47:05 #48: Move Fast (But Don't) Break Silicon Valley · More or Less Podcast
May 24, 2024 negative
Opinion
Jessica Lessin: Mega AI investors act like fee-collecting Vision Fund clones
“These financial institutions are really Playing a business of collecting assets and collecting fees, and we'll find out how the returns look, but we've seen this show before with the Vision Fund, like things and other things, and we're still in that moment in …”
Jessica Lessin May 24, 2024 ▶ 21:20 #48: Move Fast (But Don't) Break Silicon Valley · More or Less Podcast
May 31, 2024 negative
Opinion
Sam Lessin says AI beauty pageants miss generative AI's core purpose
“The whole point of AI is to make things that are highly targeted and personalized. The idea of using AI to make a general beauty pageant thing, as opposed to, like, someone's into a woman with 15 arms and three boobs, like, is, like, stupid.”
Sam Lessin May 31, 2024 ▶ 44:17 #49: The Big Ass Calendar… and Other Things NOT to Google · More or Less Podcast
Jun 14, 2024 bearish
Opinion
Lessin: Seed-stage AI investing is a fool's errand for venture capitalists
“I think most seed investors getting into AI are playing a fool's errand because it's not a place where one to three million dollars Really can move the needle in terms of value, in terms of what the game is.”
Sam Lessin Jun 14, 2024 ▶ 24:22 #51: Vinod Khosla on What to Build in AI · More or Less Podcast
Jun 21, 2024 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gil Predicts AI Cycle Will Take 10 to 15 Years to Fully Substantiate
“1015 years to fully substantiate, and the same thing is going to be true here.”
Elad Gil Jun 21, 2024 ▶ 21:42 #52: Elad Gil on What to Build in AI (Part II) · More or Less Podcast
Jun 21, 2024 neutral
Insight
Gil: Startup diversification differs across technology waves versus within one
“I think there's two types of diversification. There's diversification within a technology wave, and there's diversification across waves. And what I was referring to for that end of cycle post was diversification across waves... I think that's a little bit dif…”
Elad Gil Jun 21, 2024 ▶ 4:59 #52: Elad Gil on What to Build in AI (Part II) · More or Less Podcast
Jun 21, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lessin: The AI Wave Will Sink $1 Trillion to Create $300 Billion
“The cost is going to be a trillion dollars of capital sunk to create that three hundred billion dollars.”
Sam Lessin Jun 21, 2024 ▶ 7:01 #52: Elad Gil on What to Build in AI (Part II) · More or Less Podcast
Jun 21, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gil: Big Wave of Enterprise AI Is Two to Three Years Away
“And I think from that is this under overhyped perspective, one could argue this is very under hyped in part because there's been so little true enterprise adoption. But despite that, you're seeing these massive waves of revenue and usage and everything else, a…”
Elad Gil Jun 21, 2024 ▶ 3:55 #52: Elad Gil on What to Build in AI (Part II) · More or Less Podcast
Jun 28, 2024 positive
Assertion Supported
Brit Morin: AI drove four of the five biggest 1H tech acquisitions
“What are the top five biggest technology M&A deals in the U.S. From the first half of this year? And they range in value from seven billion to thirty-five billion. Four of the five are AI related deals.”
Brit Morin Jun 28, 2024 ▶ 6:56 #53: What We Got Wrong—and Right—in a Year of More or Less · More or Less Podcast
Jul 5, 2024 neutral
Insight
Sam Lessin: Public markets reward tech giants for burning billions on AI
“It's AI because it's such a Hail Mary that, like, you can burn fifty billion, a hundred billion dollars, and the coin toss of whether it pays off or not is so favorable if it's, if the narrative plays out, that people will spot you that. They'll actually proba…”
Sam Lessin Jul 5, 2024 ▶ 48:57 #54: Sun Valley, Tennis and Robots: Summer Adventure Preview · More or Less Podcast
Aug 2, 2024 bearish
Opinion
Dave Morin: AI is just a cloud business facing identical problems
“The, that AI is just a cloud business. It's going to run into the same problems.”
Dave Morin Aug 2, 2024 ▶ 13:22 #58: The Death of Friends · More or Less Podcast
Aug 2, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Morin: WhatsApp will win the AI era because it has real communities
“I've been thinking that, like, WhatsApp actually ends in the most success in social with all of this AI stuff, because they're actually real communities.”
Brit Morin Aug 2, 2024 ▶ 44:21 #58: The Death of Friends · More or Less Podcast
Aug 2, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lessin: AI Will Limit Interactions to Vetted People and Known Networks
“I do think, unfortunately, what it really is gonna do is limit our willingness to interact with people we don't know or aren't vetted.”
Sam Lessin Aug 2, 2024 ▶ 43:01 #58: The Death of Friends · More or Less Podcast
Aug 2, 2024 negative
Opinion
Lessin: Uninformed East Coast people believe AI will take over everything
“Wandering on the East Coast and talking to people on the East Coast about AI that know nothing about AI is, boy, do they have opinions and believe it's going to take over everything.”
Sam Lessin Aug 2, 2024 ▶ 8:53 #58: The Death of Friends · More or Less Podcast
Aug 2, 2024 neutral
Opinion
Sam Lessin: Meta has direct AI utility while Microsoft must sell it
“Because they have an actual use case for AI. Microsoft actually has to sell the fucking AI, right? Because that's the whole thing is not, they can't use it. They got to actually sell it.”
Sam Lessin Aug 2, 2024 ▶ 13:56 #58: The Death of Friends · More or Less Podcast
Aug 9, 2024 bearish
Opinion
Lessin: AI infrastructure economics are worse than traditional cloud models
“I just don't think there's any, like, it's not a great business. It's just like cloud infrastructure, but worse, right? From a business model perspective.”
Sam Lessin Aug 9, 2024 ▶ 32:37 #59: Google: Can it Outrun Regulation? · More or Less Podcast
Aug 9, 2024 bullish
Disclosure
Lessin: Extremely bullish on AI only for Google and Meta ads
“I'm, as, if you hadn't heard, I'm extremely long AI only in the case of ads optimization and making a shitload of money for Facebook and Google”
Sam Lessin Aug 9, 2024 ▶ 10:04 #59: Google: Can it Outrun Regulation? · More or Less Podcast
Aug 16, 2024 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lessin: Tech Climate Pledges Have Faltered in the AI Era
“The poor climate pledges have not fared well in the AI days.”
Jessica Lessin Aug 16, 2024 ▶ 3:27 #60: Body Futurism and Why Gen Z is Ditching Tech · More or Less Podcast
Aug 16, 2024 bearish
Opinion
Sam Lessin: AI tools like ChatGPT are actually built for old people
“We're building for old people. Like, all this shit is made, you made this point, Jess, about how all the sixty-year-olds, like, love ChatGPT. They think it's, like, the coolest thing they've ever seen.”
Sam Lessin Aug 16, 2024 ▶ 51:33 #60: Body Futurism and Why Gen Z is Ditching Tech · More or Less Podcast
Aug 16, 2024 negative
Opinion
Sam Lessin: Gen Z struggles to find an unclaimed, valuable frontier
“What's now happening, I think is that like our generation owns the internet, right? And the younger generation desperately wants to own things. They're searching around. Okay. Is it crypto? Is it AI? Like we need a narrow, they need something valuable, but the…”
Sam Lessin Aug 16, 2024 ▶ 25:44 #60: Body Futurism and Why Gen Z is Ditching Tech · More or Less Podcast
Aug 16, 2024 neutral
Insight
Dave Morin: AI is merely pervasive infrastructure, not the next wave
“Sam, your intuition might be right that like, we've got a big new wave coming and everyone's focused on AI, but actually we all know anybody who's thoughtful knows that AI is just the water. It's like in the water. Now it's going to be in everything.”
Dave Morin Aug 16, 2024 ▶ 49:04 #60: Body Futurism and Why Gen Z is Ditching Tech · More or Less Podcast
Aug 16, 2024 bearish
Opinion
Sam Lessin: AI Companions and Anti-Loneliness Apps Target Wrong Cultural Trend
“What we're building is, like, anti-loneliness technology, where people are building, like, fake friends and all this shit, which is basically just Russian, more Russian bots. But like better ones, right? It's the wrong cultural trend. Probably the wrong app…”
Sam Lessin Aug 16, 2024 ▶ 50:46 #60: Body Futurism and Why Gen Z is Ditching Tech · More or Less Podcast
Aug 23, 2024 neutral
Opinion
Lessin: Tech is moving from exponential hype to S-curve realism
“I think we're at the end of truly people just being obsessed purely with exponentials and thinking they're very smart for exponentials and people getting serious about what an S curve looks like.”
Sam Lessin Aug 23, 2024 ▶ 45:48 #61: The Venture Capital Reset Era · More or Less Podcast
Aug 23, 2024 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dave Morin: AI Makes the Average Silicon Valley Engineer 3x More Productive
“AI is making the average software engineer inside of a Silicon Valley company. Let's call it three X more productive with today's models.”
Dave Morin Aug 23, 2024 ▶ 42:12 #61: The Venture Capital Reset Era · More or Less Podcast
Aug 30, 2024 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dave Morin: AI will not break modern encryption, but quantum computing will
“AI won't, but quantum will.”
Dave Morin Aug 30, 2024 ▶ 39:31 #62: Telegram, Free Speech and Its Limits · More or Less Podcast
Aug 30, 2024 negative
Insight
Sam Lessin: Full free speech cannot safely coexist with online anonymity
“I think to Britt's point, you can't have full free speech and anonymity. I actually think that's too dangerous, right? Like for the reason you're talking about, especially as we get into the bot world and AI or whatever. So like, the thing I believe in is that…”
Sam Lessin Aug 30, 2024 ▶ 33:21 #62: Telegram, Free Speech and Its Limits · More or Less Podcast
Aug 30, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Brit Morin: AI will eliminate the need for physical photo booths soon
“It's getting better way faster than it would take to scale a bunch of these photo booths in old malls. I think in the next one or two years, you were golden.”
Brit Morin Aug 30, 2024 ▶ 7:58 #62: Telegram, Free Speech and Its Limits · More or Less Podcast
Sep 6, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sam Lessin: AI will enable Ender's Game-style centralized corporate command
“AI actually only compounds this. And so what you end up with is for those science fiction nuts out there, it's much more like Ender's game style management, right? Where you, with an Ansible, where, like, you just have, like, a single person who is galaxy brai…”
Sam Lessin Sep 6, 2024 ▶ 7:33 #63: 'Nasty' Founder Mode · More or Less Podcast
Sep 20, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sam Lessin: Artificial intelligence will eliminate middle management jobs in tech
“This is the real story of AI, right? Which is middle managers are screwed, right? That's not a job anymore, right? In technology, right? Everyone's recognizing that it was kind of la la funny land when everyone's profitability was infinite and growing. And lik…”
Sam Lessin Sep 20, 2024 ▶ 31:00 #65: Instagram, YouTube and the Kids · More or Less Podcast
Oct 4, 2024 bearish
Opinion
Sam Lessin: Generative AI is merely an Ajax-level innovation
“I think OpenAI and, like, AI in general could be, like, an Ajax-level innovation, but that is nothing. That's not, like, a real unlock. That was, like, a minor unlock is my basic point. It helped a little bit. It didn't change the world.”
Sam Lessin Oct 4, 2024 ▶ 27:26 #67: OpenAI Sets a Record and Will Apple Make Its Next Move? · More or Less Podcast
Oct 11, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dave Morin: AI progress will probably plateau longer than people think
“A simple way to think of it is like, we're probably gonna be kind of where we are right now for a lot longer than people think. If the current architecture and the current energy and the current capital needs are the gating factors.”
Dave Morin Oct 11, 2024 ▶ 42:17 #68: Google's Antitrust Saga Continues… · More or Less Podcast
Oct 11, 2024 bearish
Insight
Dave Morin: Surging domain prices signal when to short an asset class
“When an asset class is dot domain. So like, remember when web three was using dot X, Y, Z and dot X, Y, Z domains went through the roof. They were like, 10,000 dollars per domain. So like, when that happens, you know you should go short.”
Dave Morin Oct 11, 2024 ▶ 1:01:24 #68: Google's Antitrust Saga Continues… · More or Less Podcast
Nov 1, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Lessin: Google says 25 percent of its new code is AI-generated
“Google had the headline that it, 25% of the code written at the company is originated with AI and then checked by people.”
Jessica Lessin Nov 1, 2024 ▶ 11:51 #71: Big Tech Earnings and the AI Revolution · More or Less Podcast
Nov 8, 2024
Insight
Lessin: AI Is Not a New Frontier, but New Weapons for an Existing War
“We're in a fight era, right? Where like, there isn't Terra Nova, like AI is not Terra Nova, right? AI is just new weapons for a war. And so as a result, like, you just want to be like, no, like this is, we're now fighters. AI's are new weapons. And like, we're…”
Sam Lessin Nov 8, 2024 ▶ 1:04:12 #72: Trump's Influencer Strategy Pays Off and the Future of App Building (with Guillermo Rauch!) · More or Less Podcast
Nov 8, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rauch: Natural language AI will trivially grow React developers to 50M
“Like there's four million react developers. I can move that from four million to fifty million trivially, because now like you just speak English to that thing. Even if like it doesn't do a hundred percent of the job, it's just like this, like infinitely avail…”
Guillermo Rauch Nov 8, 2024 ▶ 53:01 #72: Trump's Influencer Strategy Pays Off and the Future of App Building (with Guillermo Rauch!) · More or Less Podcast
Nov 8, 2024 bullish
Opinion
Rauch: Generating software is the killer application of AI
“Generating software is actually the killer app of AI.”
Guillermo Rauch Nov 8, 2024 ▶ 52:05 #72: Trump's Influencer Strategy Pays Off and the Future of App Building (with Guillermo Rauch!) · More or Less Podcast
Nov 8, 2024 bearish
Opinion
Rauch: Much of AI output is horrible slop driven by hype
“We do have to hold AI to an insanely high bar because there's way too much spending and way too much hype, and a lot of it is the slop. It's just like, a lot of it looks horrible.”
Guillermo Rauch Nov 8, 2024 ▶ 54:10 #72: Trump's Influencer Strategy Pays Off and the Future of App Building (with Guillermo Rauch!) · More or Less Podcast
Nov 8, 2024 neutral
Opinion
Rauch: 2024 election saw less AI fake content than anticipated
“I think we saw less of the AI will be used for, like, fake content to some extent.”
Guillermo Rauch Nov 8, 2024 ▶ 37:53 #72: Trump's Influencer Strategy Pays Off and the Future of App Building (with Guillermo Rauch!) · More or Less Podcast
Nov 8, 2024 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rauch: AI will become embedded everywhere until we stop incessantly discussing it
“I do believe that there will be AI embedded into everything to the point where we stop referring to it incessantly. And I think one of those points, one of those places will be the operating system.”
Guillermo Rauch Nov 8, 2024 ▶ 58:40 #72: Trump's Influencer Strategy Pays Off and the Future of App Building (with Guillermo Rauch!) · More or Less Podcast
Nov 29, 2024 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Vascellaro: AI Will Condense Creative Process by Cutting Out Middlemen
“So AI, I'm not so worried about AI in the sense that it's still very, very hard to make stuff. And I think that the condensing of the creative process is going to be around cutting around some of the middle men and women that take place sort of in the middle t…”
Matt Vascellaro Nov 29, 2024 ▶ 50:06 #75: The Rise of the Tech Bro · More or Less Podcast
Dec 6, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Levie predicts 10 times more software will be created
“There'll be way more software, 10 times the amount of software that gets created.”
Aaron Levie Dec 6, 2024 ▶ 43:22 #76: In a World with 99.99% Accurate AI… (feat. Aaron Levie) · More or Less Podcast
Dec 6, 2024 bullish
Opinion
Levie: Extrapolating existing AI capabilities would pay for all VC funding
“If I'm wrong and it taps out sooner than I think you would just have exactly what AI is good at today, plus, you know, 20% or whatever, and then fully extrapolate it out. So, so that, that to me is, that, that pays all the, for all the VC funding.”
Aaron Levie Dec 6, 2024 ▶ 44:57 #76: In a World with 99.99% Accurate AI… (feat. Aaron Levie) · More or Less Podcast
Dec 6, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sam Lessin: AI will completely wreck the porn market
“AI is going to completely wreck the porn market. Full stop.”
Sam Lessin Dec 6, 2024 ▶ 57:28 #76: In a World with 99.99% Accurate AI… (feat. Aaron Levie) · More or Less Podcast
Dec 6, 2024 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Levie: US leads world in AI, biotech, transportation, and space
“Like we are leading in AI. We're leading in biotech. We're leading in transportation in, in most categories. We have the chance to lead in, in energy in most areas. We're leading in space. So you kind of look at all of these areas where we're clearly in front …”
Aaron Levie Dec 6, 2024 ▶ 16:17 #76: In a World with 99.99% Accurate AI… (feat. Aaron Levie) · More or Less Podcast
Dec 6, 2024 bearish
Opinion
Lessin: AI hype cooled in 2024 as costs and reality set in
“By my read, you know, it's been an interesting year, and I would say the year where maybe like, The reality of AI sunk in a little bit. The reality of the cost of AI sunk in a little bit. I don't know. I actually think we came down a little bit from the hype t…”
Jessica Lessin Dec 6, 2024 ▶ 5:47 #76: In a World with 99.99% Accurate AI… (feat. Aaron Levie) · More or Less Podcast
Dec 6, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sam Lessin: AI will compress SaaS margins by making software easy to clone
“There's pricing pressure. All your margins go away. You say, look, I can rebuild box.net with three engineers in two months for my need now. I don't need you guys. You can't charge me premium pricing. And the reality is that's actually the easier application o…”
Sam Lessin Dec 6, 2024 ▶ 55:07 #76: In a World with 99.99% Accurate AI… (feat. Aaron Levie) · More or Less Podcast
Dec 13, 2024 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Lessin claims Spotify fired its Wrapped team and used AI instead
“Well, and believe it or not, at least I saw on social media, they had fired the entire team. So this was, they were able to produce with no people using AI.”
Sam Lessin Dec 13, 2024 ▶ 21:46 #77: Sora Reveal, Google's AI Agents and Digital Trade Under Trump · More or Less Podcast
Dec 20, 2024 bullish
Opinion
Sam Lessin: Meta has the clearest positive asymmetry on AI
“Clearest asymmetry to the positive on AI. Not even close.”
Sam Lessin Dec 20, 2024 ▶ 42:18 #78: 2024 Tech Company of the Year + 2025 Predictions · More or Less Podcast
Dec 20, 2024 positive
Opinion
Dave Morin: Every consequential AI company is based in the US
“Every consequential company of this new technology is in the United States. We are the unequivocal leader in this.”
Dave Morin Dec 20, 2024 ▶ 8:42 #78: 2024 Tech Company of the Year + 2025 Predictions · More or Less Podcast
Dec 20, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dave Morin: 2025 will dramatically accelerate the era of personal apps
“I think that the era of personal apps is going to dramatically accelerate. I think you're going to see almost everyone, you know, will start to experiment with building their own software using these tools. And I think people will be shocked at what they can b…”
Dave Morin Dec 20, 2024 ▶ 57:34 #78: 2024 Tech Company of the Year + 2025 Predictions · More or Less Podcast
Dec 27, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Levie: AI will cause 10x more software to be created
“I totally subscribe to the thesis that, that you just said there'll be way more software, 10 times the amount of software that gets created.”
Aaron Levie Dec 27, 2024 ▶ 1:16:46 #79: The More or Less Holiday Special Pt. 1 (AI Highlights) · More or Less Podcast
Dec 27, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sam Lessin: Generative AI collapses ad inventory rather than expanding it
“AI today, even if you're a really big bull and you think that Gemini and open AI is like better at answers is not actually going to expand inventory, right? If anything, it collapses inventory because you're doing fewer searches, right? It just gives you the a…”
Sam Lessin Dec 27, 2024 ▶ 1:20:56 #79: The More or Less Holiday Special Pt. 1 (AI Highlights) · More or Less Podcast
Dec 27, 2024 bullish
Opinion
Levie: AI's current capabilities plus 20% would justify all VC funding
“If I'm wrong and it taps out sooner, then I think you would just have exactly what AI is good at today, plus, you know, 20% or whatever, and then fully extrapolate it out. So, so that, that to me is, that, that pays all the, for all the VC funding.”
Aaron Levie Dec 27, 2024 ▶ 1:18:20 #79: The More or Less Holiday Special Pt. 1 (AI Highlights) · More or Less Podcast
Dec 27, 2024 bullish
Opinion
Rauch: Generating software is AI's killer application
“Generating software is actually the killer app of AI.”
Guillermo Rauch Dec 27, 2024 ▶ 1:34:30 #79: The More or Less Holiday Special Pt. 1 (AI Highlights) · More or Less Podcast
Jan 4, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sam Lessin: The Trump administration will take the wind out of AI
“I actually think what has gone on with the Trump thing is I think it's going to take some wind out of the AI story because the story is going to be about infrastructure and America and like all that type of stuff.”
Sam Lessin Jan 4, 2025 ▶ 58:26 #80: More or Less Holiday Special Pt. 2 (Crypto and Antitrust) · More or Less Podcast
Jan 4, 2025
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Britt Morin: Lawmakers will regulate AI faster than crypto
“I think, like, I would imagine the time it took to start regulating crypto more efficiently is, is going to be longer than the time it takes to regulate AI, just because of the pace it's moving. And I think that, like, the lawmakers are having to, they're forc…”
Brit Morin Jan 4, 2025 ▶ 34:55 #80: More or Less Holiday Special Pt. 2 (Crypto and Antitrust) · More or Less Podcast
Jan 10, 2025 positive
Opinion
Sam Lessin: AI feeds align with what users actually want, not what they claim
“I actually think AI is incredibly aligned with what people actually want, not what they say they want.”
Sam Lessin Jan 10, 2025 ▶ 31:27 #81: Meta's Community Notes: More Speech and Fewer Mistakes? · More or Less Podcast
Jan 31, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Sam Lessin: AI valuations are fragile because they rely on AGI narratives
“The value of AI is AGI meme-y. Like, it's not, like, it loses a show of money, but it's, like, it's okay, because, like, AGI, right? It's very memetically driven. But the problem is that, like, it's a very binary zero or infinity value, and so it's extremely s…”
Sam Lessin Jan 31, 2025 ▶ 21:19 #84: China's DeepSeek Shakes the Tech World · More or Less Podcast
Feb 7, 2025 bearish
Insight
Lessin: An AI company's moat is merely a burning pile of money
“The moat is a burning pile of money.”
Sam Lessin Feb 7, 2025 ▶ 1:08:00 #85: The $250M Meme Coin Experiment · More or Less Podcast
Feb 28, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Sam Lessin: AI and AGI Are Essentially Meme Coins for Rich People
“Cause I'd argue that in a lot of ways, AI and AGI is next to GameStop, the ultimate, it's a meme coin. It's a meme narrative for very rich people. It's like Silicon Valley, very rich people, venture capitalists, et cetera, needed a meme to pile a bunch of capi…”
Sam Lessin Feb 28, 2025 ▶ 46:06 #88: Meta’s $200B AI Bet, Instagram Reels & The Future of Content · More or Less Podcast
Mar 7, 2025 neutral
Opinion
Sam Lessin: AI replacing customer service won't impact US jobs
“And for what it's worth, I do believe you, the thing I think you can fire all the customer service people. The only miscalculation is those people do not work in the US. You're going to fire all the people in Indonesia.”
Sam Lessin Mar 7, 2025 ▶ 36:38 #89: America’s Crypto Reserve, Nvidia’s $600M Hit & Digg’s Comeback · More or Less Podcast
Mar 7, 2025 positive
Opinion
Jessica Lessin: CoreWeave IPO is a major barometer for AI sentiment
“So the IPO, which is pretty soon, they've done most of their filings is going to be a big barometer for how people feel about AI, how public investors feel.”
Jessica Lessin Mar 7, 2025 ▶ 39:04 #89: America’s Crypto Reserve, Nvidia’s $600M Hit & Digg’s Comeback · More or Less Podcast
Mar 14, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Brit Morin: Anthropic CEO Claims AI Will Write Nearly All Code in 12 Months
“The CEO of Anthropix said, he said, In the next three to six months, AI is probably gonna be able to write 90% of all code. And in 12 months, nearly all code may be generated by AI.”
Brit Morin Mar 14, 2025 ▶ 43:23 #90: Silicon Valley Unscripted: Billionaires, AI, and Interplanetary Exploration · More or Less Podcast
Mar 28, 2025 neutral
Insight
Ben Smith: Original reporting is safe from AI, but writing is vulnerable
“In journalism, there's sort of, at one end is gathering facts that are not on the internet, and putting them on the internet, and then there's a lot of other things, writing and producing in the middle, and at the other end is connecting with, is a human being…”
Ben Smith Mar 28, 2025 ▶ 57:13 The Signal Scandal & DOGE Drama! (with Ben Smith and Nicholas Carlson) | More or Less #92 · More or Less Podcast
Mar 28, 2025 neutral
Insight
Nicholas Carlson: Advanced generative AI features are already becoming weirdly commoditized
“One of the things I've observed about AI recently is it's weirdly commoditized for, like, an incredibly advanced technology. If you want to, like, find a video, a technology that can take a video, And make it so your mouth looks like it's speaking a foreign la…”
Nicholas Carlson Mar 28, 2025 ▶ 48:47 The Signal Scandal & DOGE Drama! (with Ben Smith and Nicholas Carlson) | More or Less #92 · More or Less Podcast
Apr 25, 2025 neutral
Insight
Lessin: AI devalues photo filters, driving status seekers to unfakeable offline achievements
“Basically, the problem with AI is, is devalued filters to the point that everyone looks hot. So that's no longer a game anyone cares about. So now you need to do things that are, like, undeniable, like, that are harder to fake to prove and spend more money and…”
Sam Lessin Apr 25, 2025 ▶ 7:21 Google & Meta Trials, AI’s Media Collapse & Elon’s Tesla Comeback · More or Less Podcast
May 2, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sam Lessin: AI will be sprinkled everywhere and not disrupt tech broadly
“I honestly think what we're going to ultimately find is AI just gets sprinkled in everything. It's not that disruptive to the overall system.”
Sam Lessin May 2, 2025 ▶ 27:35 How OpenAI Is Beating Google and Meta at Their Own Game · More or Less Podcast
May 2, 2025 bearish
Prediction Held up
Sam Lessin: People Will Kill Themselves and Others Because of AIs
“And like, at some point people are going to start killing themselves and each other because of AIs.”
Sam Lessin May 2, 2025 ▶ 43:58 How OpenAI Is Beating Google and Meta at Their Own Game · More or Less Podcast
May 2, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sam Lessin: Consumers will use multiple AIs rather than locking into one
“Are you going to have a monogamous AI relationship? Doubtful. Right. Like, I think like, if anything, polyamory is on the rise in society. You know what I mean? Like, I think like, you're just going to like, Have lots of AIs in your life.”
Sam Lessin May 2, 2025 ▶ 24:52 How OpenAI Is Beating Google and Meta at Their Own Game · More or Less Podcast
May 9, 2025 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Brit Morin: AI will supercharge, not replace, senior software engineers
“The sort of senior software engineer that's based inside of some of these very large tech companies, I don't think are going to be replaced anytime soon. As much as they will be augmented and able and supercharged, which is just like the rest of what AI is doi…”
Brit Morin May 9, 2025 ▶ 12:36 OpenAI Acquires Windsurf for $3B, Google's Stock Dips | #98 · More or Less Podcast
May 23, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Lessin: AI is generally not a good seed investment opportunity
“I mean, that's obviously my pattern, which is, like, AI broadly is, like, not a good seed investment. It's an opportunity full stop, right?”
Sam Lessin May 23, 2025 ▶ 54:42 OpenAI Teams Up with Jony Ive, Vibe Coding, Gemini, and More | More or Less #100 · More or Less Podcast
May 30, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Lessin: Generative AI Will Benefit OnlyFans Rather Than Disrupt It
“The other thing is people are short only fans because they have AI Google Gaga glasses on and they're like, this is going away because it's all wrong. Like that completely misunderstands. It's like literally the opposite. Like AI is amazing for only fans.”
Sam Lessin May 30, 2025 ▶ 3:24 #101: The Business of OnlyFans, Future of Identity, and Navigating Privacy in the AI Age · More or Less Podcast
Jun 6, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sam Lessin: Firm avoids pure entertainment investments due to zero-cost AI
“I think that the most competitive markets are going to be the ones that look closest to zero marginal cost AI stuff, right? That's why like, I'm like super and creator fun. Like we're very anti investing in pure entertainment, right? It's too competitive. Like…”
Sam Lessin Jun 6, 2025 ▶ 18:47 #102: Snap Spectacles, Build-A-Bear, and the Myth of the Everything App · More or Less Podcast
Jun 6, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sam Lessin: Consumers will use a chorus of specialized AIs
“I actually think that the far more likely outcome, Is like the dinner party outcome for AIs, which is like, you just have a chorus of them, right? You trust different ones for different things. There's always new ones being introduced. They're like new people …”
Sam Lessin Jun 6, 2025 ▶ 37:39 #102: Snap Spectacles, Build-A-Bear, and the Myth of the Everything App · More or Less Podcast
Jun 13, 2025 neutral
Insight
Morin: Apple's deterministic ethos fundamentally conflicts with probabilistic modern AI
“I think that there's this fundamental thing which is hard about AI for Apple, which is that Apple really believes in consistency and delivering a quality experience the same time every time. That's pretty opposed to the nature of these probabilistic computers …”
Dave Morin Jun 13, 2025 ▶ 24:05 #103: Are Silicon Valley’s Mega-Deals Just Talent Grabs? · More or Less Podcast
Jun 20, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Brit Morin: Founders are submitting pitches explicitly stating AI was not used
“We've been starting to get investor pitches that specifically call out that it was not written by AI. It's like a multi-page pitch.”
Brit Morin Jun 20, 2025 ▶ 37:14 #104: AI Clones, Commoditized Ads, and the Cult of Trust · More or Less Podcast
Jun 20, 2025 bearish
Insight
Lessin: AI drives margins to zero, threatening capitalism's structural profit model
“Capitalism tends towards efficiency, but that's the whole beauty of it, but like requires structural inefficiency to profit, right? If there's no structural inefficiency, there's no profit, right? Which is why people talk about how AI is communist and, you kno…”
Sam Lessin Jun 20, 2025 ▶ 18:13 #104: AI Clones, Commoditized Ads, and the Cult of Trust · More or Less Podcast
Jun 20, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Morin: Workers will soon pretend they used AI to avoid criticism
“Soon it's going to be the opposite where people are like, you didn't use AI. Like, what's wrong with you? Why didn't you use AI for this? And people are going to have to pretend like they did. They'll have to say, oh no, I totally used AI for that.”
Dave Morin Jun 20, 2025 ▶ 34:12 #104: AI Clones, Commoditized Ads, and the Cult of Trust · More or Less Podcast
Jun 27, 2025 negative
Insight
Sam Lessin: AI will push society toward closed human-based networks
“You have to go back to human based networks, because you can't trust anything you see or anything you're sent from an unvalidated source, right? So you end up with a very Going back to a more structured society versus a more open society because of AI.”
Sam Lessin Jun 27, 2025 ▶ 18:34 #105: Tesla, Bumble, And Bezos' Wedding - Everything Is A Mess · More or Less Podcast
Jun 27, 2025 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sam Lessin: Future candidate evaluation will return to live oral examinations
“AI both invalidates all that type of stuff, right? Cause it's too easy to cheat on. And, right, makes it much more reasonable to basically scale Oxford style standard deliverer examinations, which I think is going to be the future. You're going to lock your ph…”
Sam Lessin Jun 27, 2025 ▶ 19:40 #105: Tesla, Bumble, And Bezos' Wedding - Everything Is A Mess · More or Less Podcast
Jun 27, 2025 negative
Insight
Lessin: Knowledge workers unable to build AI applications are bad at jobs
“If you can't, like, build applications with AI to do your own job better, you just are not good at your job anymore.”
Sam Lessin Jun 27, 2025 ▶ 11:53 #105: Tesla, Bumble, And Bezos' Wedding - Everything Is A Mess · More or Less Podcast
Jun 27, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sam Lessin: Self-amusement will be humanity's top skill as AI takes jobs
“We're moving towards a world where like the number one skill people need is how to amuse themselves because like AI is taking up jobs.”
Sam Lessin Jun 27, 2025 ▶ 40:03 #105: Tesla, Bumble, And Bezos' Wedding - Everything Is A Mess · More or Less Podcast
Jul 4, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Brit Morin: AI will eventually identify universal viral content across platforms
“It will at some point. Then you can just use all of that as data.”
Brit Morin Jul 4, 2025 ▶ 5:40 #106: AI Researchers Earning More Than Cristiano Ronaldo · More or Less Podcast
Jul 4, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Sam Lessin is highly pessimistic about AI business models
“I'm not at all an optimist from a business model perspective”
Sam Lessin Jul 4, 2025 ▶ 18:33 #106: AI Researchers Earning More Than Cristiano Ronaldo · More or Less Podcast
Jul 4, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dave Morin: AI cannot identify cross-platform universal viral content
“No, AI can't do this.”
Dave Morin Jul 4, 2025 ▶ 5:37 #106: AI Researchers Earning More Than Cristiano Ronaldo · More or Less Podcast
Jul 11, 2025 neutral
Opinion
Yakovenko: AI is more of a product than a movement
“AI is more of a product, honestly, and less of a movement.”
Anatoly Yakovenko Jul 11, 2025 ▶ 3:43 #107 Crypto Isn’t for Everyone (And That’s a Good Thing) with Anatoly Yakovenko · More or Less Podcast
Jul 18, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Sam Lessin: AI cannot replace reporters due to lack of ground truth
“You need to pay reporters and sources of truth and like you can't possibly get that. From AI, because AI's biggest problem is there's no idea what's actually going on in the real world.”
Sam Lessin Jul 18, 2025 ▶ 21:11 #108 Meta vs. OpenAI: Who Wins the Next Attention War? · More or Less Podcast
Jul 18, 2025 neutral
Insight
Sam Lessin: AI civic data will succeed in B2B, not consumer news
“People love the abstract, yada, yada, yada, being like, well, we get all of the small town news data, and then people will read the small town. It's like, no, no, no. There's going to be much more specific uses for it, right? With like verticals and some of it…”
Sam Lessin Jul 18, 2025 ▶ 26:15 #108 Meta vs. OpenAI: Who Wins the Next Attention War? · More or Less Podcast
Jul 18, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Jessica Lessin: AI transcripts are not a viable local news alternative
“I'm skeptical that it's going to turn into some kind of viable alternative for the holes in local news.”
Jessica Lessin Jul 18, 2025 ▶ 23:34 #108 Meta vs. OpenAI: Who Wins the Next Attention War? · More or Less Podcast
Jul 25, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sam Lessin: AI's future is a cast of characters, not one assistant
“Again, I just think the future, honestly, is you have to model these things like a cast of characters, not a single person that is your confidant. And like, they're just a bunch of friends. There's gonna be more of them. And like, Grok is your Republican frien…”
Sam Lessin Jul 25, 2025 ▶ 40:46 #109 OpenAI vs Google: The Real Business Model War Begins · More or Less Podcast
Jul 25, 2025 negative
Opinion
Sam Lessin: Nobody wants to read physical books about AI
“In the age of AI, someone sending a book about AI, because you're like, no one wants to consume that.”
Sam Lessin Jul 25, 2025 ▶ 8:00 #109 OpenAI vs Google: The Real Business Model War Begins · More or Less Podcast
Jul 25, 2025 negative
Opinion
Sam Lessin: AI startup wars and overpriced funding rounds are miserable
“Actually, I just think everyone's too depressed and not having enough fun. And the question is like, I like even AI, it's funny because like there are parts of it that are quite fun, right? Like programming is quite fun on some of these things that are fun, bu…”
Sam Lessin Jul 25, 2025 ▶ 3:08 #109 OpenAI vs Google: The Real Business Model War Begins · More or Less Podcast
Jul 25, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Britt Morin: Reid Hoffman distributed personalized AI-generated physical books
“I got sent a book from Reid Hoffman about AI this week. Well, it was might've been a few weeks ago cause I got back into town, but, and everything was customized to me in the book. There was a forward for me. I was on the book jacket. It had like a whole secti…”
Brit Morin Jul 25, 2025 ▶ 6:36 #109 OpenAI vs Google: The Real Business Model War Begins · More or Less Podcast
Aug 1, 2025 negative
Insight
Sam Lessin says AI's real danger is universal skepticism, not deepfakes
“The scary part of AI is not like you're going to believe that Obama is launching nukes for some bullshit. Bullshit. It's basically that you just believe nothing because it's all made up, right? Everything just is, it's all fake, right? So you just have no idea…”
Sam Lessin Aug 1, 2025 ▶ 13:29 #110 Meta's Billion-Dollar Hires: Bubble or Genius? · More or Less Podcast
Aug 8, 2025 bearish
Insight
Sam Lessin: AI disruption makes Silicon Valley feel one move from irrelevance
“And I think that's actually what's going on in the Valley right now is like, things are moving so quickly. AI is so disruptive. There's all this stuff going on. You know, there's super empowered individuals coming out. It's just crazy. And so I think everyone …”
Sam Lessin Aug 8, 2025 ▶ 22:53 #111 Figma, OpenAI, Canva: Meme Stock IPOs in Silicon Valley · More or Less Podcast
Aug 8, 2025 negative
Insight
Sam Lessin: AI Has Destroyed Seed-Stage Startup Diligence
“That's blown out of the water by AI because all of a sudden, like everything looks the same. Like not to mention the fact that pitches are customized at scale and the decks are all crap. The apps themselves, the V ones are like too similar. So we don't know ho…”
Sam Lessin Aug 8, 2025 ▶ 30:27 #111 Figma, OpenAI, Canva: Meme Stock IPOs in Silicon Valley · More or Less Podcast
Aug 8, 2025 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sam Lessin: AI will force a massive retreat into closed private networks
“What you do is retreat to private networks in every form. It happens in news. It happens in app building. It happens in who you date or whatever. It's like, there's just going to be this massive retreat away from the commons, which is, I think actually really …”
Sam Lessin Aug 8, 2025 ▶ 36:20 #111 Figma, OpenAI, Canva: Meme Stock IPOs in Silicon Valley · More or Less Podcast
Aug 15, 2025
Insight
Having a cool AI product does not make a good business
“The whole thing is just because AI is a cool product doesn't make it good business.”
Sam Lessin Aug 15, 2025 ▶ 17:09 #112 Swift Should Buy Chrome, Not Perplexity · More or Less Podcast
Aug 29, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tony Conrad: True Ventures Portfolio Company Will Hit $150M AI ARR
“We have one portfolio company that, and these are real numbers, not venture numbers... It's already unicorn status valuation that opened a new in December had zero revenue around this new product line. And this year ends at minimum one 50 AR are on that busine…”
Tony Conrad Aug 29, 2025 ▶ 30:39 #114 Seed Rounds at $2B? The Dangers of AI Hype in VC With Tony Conrad · More or Less Podcast
Aug 29, 2025 neutral
Disclosure
Conrad: True Ventures has paused investing in non-AI startups
“Like, I think it's just required us to just say, pause for a second on all things that are non AI, because we're going to have catch up like almost every firm, by the way.”
Tony Conrad Aug 29, 2025 ▶ 50:38 #114 Seed Rounds at $2B? The Dangers of AI Hype in VC With Tony Conrad · More or Less Podcast
Aug 29, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Conrad: Categorizing companies as AI vs non-AI will soon end
“I think pretty soon it's just like, we're just gonna talk, it's gonna just be back to being tech. It's like, everything's gonna be AI if it's whatever. And we'll get back to the normal classifications of, Tech and non-tech, right?”
Tony Conrad Aug 29, 2025 ▶ 1:00:53 #114 Seed Rounds at $2B? The Dangers of AI Hype in VC With Tony Conrad · More or Less Podcast
Sep 6, 2025 bearish
Insight
Lessin: AI is an adversarial war consuming resources with no net value
“The entire thing with AI is it's a great way to sink money and power and compute into a war with itself that produces no value.”
Sam Lessin Sep 6, 2025 ▶ 55:35 #115 Anthropic at $170B: Should Unicorns Be Forced to IPO? · More or Less Podcast
Sep 12, 2025 positive
Opinion
Lessin: Apple's refusal to engage with AI hype is a great vibe
“But the basic point is like, I just kind of like the vibe of Apple just being like, fuck all of you. Like, this is all stupid. And we're just gonna make more iPhones and lots of money. Like, I love that as a vibe.”
Sam Lessin Sep 12, 2025 ▶ 9:56 #116 iPhone Air or Pro: Apple Ignores AI and Wins? · More or Less Podcast
Sep 12, 2025 bearish
Assertion Supported
Vinod Khosla: The majority of current AI venture investing will fail
“Bottom line, bargain hunting will be a poor bet in AI, but firms putting money to work who invest in all high valuations indiscriminately will do poorly, and that is the majority of the investing that is happening.”
Jessica Lessin Sep 12, 2025 ▶ 28:06 #116 iPhone Air or Pro: Apple Ignores AI and Wins? · More or Less Podcast
Sep 12, 2025 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Morin: YC Demo Day featured three separate AI fishing startups
“Almost everything was AI plus vertical of some, you know, sort of AI plus this vertical. And there were actually three AI fishing startups yesterday, but only one of them had somebody who had grown up in a fishing family”
Dave Morin Sep 12, 2025 ▶ 17:30 #116 iPhone Air or Pro: Apple Ignores AI and Wins? · More or Less Podcast
Sep 26, 2025 positive
Insight
Lessin: Capitalists want AI to be expensive to preserve their advantage
“The amazing part for capitalists about all this AI shit is it's like the first time that in a very long time, like technology is super expensive. Right. And like, that's good. Like they want it to be expensive because then they can play.”
Sam Lessin Sep 26, 2025 ▶ 34:25 #118 Elon vs Altman: The $10B Capital War Reshaping Tech · More or Less Podcast
Sep 26, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Lessin: Early-stage VC is largely past AI hype and ridiculous valuations
“I'm seeing all these tweets on the Twitter of, like, venture capitalists complaining about ridiculous valuations, and we've lost our minds, and all this type of stuff. Honestly, I'm, like, really not seeing that. I guess I just hunt in different waters on this…”
Sam Lessin Sep 26, 2025 ▶ 39:24 #118 Elon vs Altman: The $10B Capital War Reshaping Tech · More or Less Podcast
Oct 10, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Morin: AI capex equals an Apollo program every 10 months
“We're on track right now to spend an Apollo program every 10 months in AI.”
Dave Morin Oct 10, 2025 ▶ 23:15 Oracle's GPU Margins, OpenAI’s Consumer Playbook, and the Ads vs Commerce Endgame · More or Less Podcast
Oct 10, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Dave Morin: Seed startups without AI struggle to raise funding
“I mean, we're all seeing this at the seed stage, right? Like it's a tale of two cities. Like it's very hard to get anything funded. That's not got AI in one of its slides.”
Dave Morin Oct 10, 2025 ▶ 27:44 Oracle's GPU Margins, OpenAI’s Consumer Playbook, and the Ads vs Commerce Endgame · More or Less Podcast
Oct 17, 2025
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Oct 2025
Morin: AI model judged pro-AI side winner of doctor debate
“And then they asked AI, which I believe they called Claudius, to analyze the entire debate and choose a winner. And the AI chose the AI side.”
Dave Morin Oct 17, 2025 ▶ 6:42 Meta’s Teen Rules, OpenAI’s Content Shift, and Roblox the New Social Media? · More or Less Podcast
Oct 17, 2025
Assertion Supported
Morin: Reid Hoffman and Mike Krieger debated whether AI replaces doctors
“And they had a great debate this weekend around they had Reid Hoffman and a doctor on one side, and they had Mikey Krieger and then a woman who heads up AI company focused on replacing primary care doctors. And the debate was, will doctors be replaced by AI? A…”
Dave Morin Oct 17, 2025 ▶ 4:57 Meta’s Teen Rules, OpenAI’s Content Shift, and Roblox the New Social Media? · More or Less Podcast
Oct 17, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Morin: Doc conference audience unanimously voted AI will not replace doctors
“And then at the end, they asked everybody in the audience to raise their hands. If They were on the human side or the AI side, and all of the humans in the audience took the side of AI will not replace doctors.”
Dave Morin Oct 17, 2025 ▶ 6:24 Meta’s Teen Rules, OpenAI’s Content Shift, and Roblox the New Social Media? · More or Less Podcast
Oct 24, 2025 negative
Opinion
Sam Lessin: AI text expansion and summarization have net-zero impact
“You basically have this, like, war of attrition Where you have all these people making more, and then everyone's like, on the other side, like, making less, and the net impact of it is zero, right?”
Sam Lessin Oct 24, 2025 ▶ 38:09 TPUs Are Winning? Gemini + Anthropic vs NVIDIA, and OpenAI’s Atlas Explained · More or Less Podcast
Oct 24, 2025 negative
Opinion
Sam Lessin: No Thinking Person in 2025 Uses AI to Write Speeches
“Which is why, for instance, remember, there was a brief moment where everyone thought the AI's written speeches for dinners was like the cutest thing ever, and no, no thinking person would use AI to write a speech in twenty-twenty-five because it's just a lowb…”
Sam Lessin Oct 24, 2025 ▶ 3:48 TPUs Are Winning? Gemini + Anthropic vs NVIDIA, and OpenAI’s Atlas Explained · More or Less Podcast
Oct 24, 2025 bearish
Insight
Sam Lessin: AI Customer Service Savings Will Be Competed Away
“If everyone has the same improved customer service, it just ratchets the competition up. Right. And those numbers get passed back to you. Don't get to just like take all the money that we spend on customer service and be like, well, now we get that money. That…”
Sam Lessin Oct 24, 2025 ▶ 25:29 TPUs Are Winning? Gemini + Anthropic vs NVIDIA, and OpenAI’s Atlas Explained · More or Less Podcast
Oct 24, 2025 negative
Disclosure
Dave Morin: I routinely ask senders how much AI they used
“No, I will just respond to people now and ask how much AI is in this thing that you just sent me.”
Dave Morin Oct 24, 2025 ▶ 7:05 TPUs Are Winning? Gemini + Anthropic vs NVIDIA, and OpenAI’s Atlas Explained · More or Less Podcast
Oct 24, 2025 positive
Opinion
Brit Morin: AI outlining followed by human editing is not AI slop
“Just because I use AI to outline my thoughts and like a five pronged approach, then I use real brain to go and edit all the copy that it had previously like template generated for me. Doesn't mean it's AI work slop”
Brit Morin Oct 24, 2025 ▶ 6:37 TPUs Are Winning? Gemini + Anthropic vs NVIDIA, and OpenAI’s Atlas Explained · More or Less Podcast
Nov 7, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sam Lessin claims enterprise AI adoption is entirely driven by software coding
“It's coding. It's all code.”
Sam Lessin Nov 7, 2025 ▶ 27:22 Apple Chooses Gemini, Sequoia's Leadership Shake-up, and Meme Coins · More or Less Podcast
Nov 14, 2025 negative
Opinion
Morin: Hired interior designers using AI would make him very angry
“If a human interior designer used AI, I would be very angry.”
Dave Morin Nov 14, 2025 ▶ 1:39 Apple’s iPhone Sock, Waymo's Bay Area Expansion, and AI Wearables · More or Less Podcast
Nov 14, 2025 positive
Insight
Sam Lessin: Using AI in professional work is fine if nobody notices
“My basic view is if you can't tell someone used AI, it's fine.”
Sam Lessin Nov 14, 2025 ▶ 2:01 Apple’s iPhone Sock, Waymo's Bay Area Expansion, and AI Wearables · More or Less Podcast
Nov 21, 2025 negative
Opinion
Sam Lessin: Individual nations are subscale for AI
“In some ways I'd actually argue nations are subscale for AI. Like we now live in a globalized internet world.”
Sam Lessin Nov 21, 2025 ▶ 44:10 Google Just Won AI, TikTok’s “Self-Control Badges”, ChatGPT Enters Group Chats · More or Less Podcast
Nov 21, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lessin: Companies will strip 'AI' from their branding over the next 18 months
“I think that's a real last 18 months where like tack AI onto your brand to make it more valuable. I think the next 18 are going to be take it off.”
Jessica Lessin Nov 21, 2025 ▶ 35:56 Google Just Won AI, TikTok’s “Self-Control Badges”, ChatGPT Enters Group Chats · More or Less Podcast
Nov 21, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Sam Lessin: Grammarly is completely destroyed by AI
“It's a great example, if you think about Grammarly, of a company that is completely fucked by AI, right?”
Sam Lessin Nov 21, 2025 ▶ 38:01 Google Just Won AI, TikTok’s “Self-Control Badges”, ChatGPT Enters Group Chats · More or Less Podcast
Nov 28, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lessin: AI won't end the attention economy, just create far better ads
“I think we're just gonna make way better ads.”
Sam Lessin Nov 28, 2025 ▶ 47:03 OpenAI vs Google vs Meta: Business Model War · More or Less Podcast
Nov 28, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Lessin: Meta is the easiest AI investment because it lacks downside
“I've always said that if you want to invest in the AI narrative, the easiest bet in the world is meta, because it's all upside, no downside. I stand by that. You know, I think that's continue to continue to be the case. And like, that doesn't even matter if th…”
Sam Lessin Nov 28, 2025 ▶ 34:48 OpenAI vs Google vs Meta: Business Model War · More or Less Podcast
Dec 5, 2025 negative
Opinion
Lessin mocks Aaron Levie's generic claim that AI won't take all jobs
“Like, and his line, he says, I'm emphatically in the camp that AI doesn't take all the jobs. I'm like, that is the funniest non-statement I have ever heard. He's like, okay, you're emphatically in the camp that some jobs will exist.”
Sam Lessin Dec 5, 2025 ▶ 44:59 Code Red, Bitcoin Costs, AWS Resurgence, and Waymo Safety (Not About AI... ish) · More or Less Podcast
Dec 19, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Morin suggests local journalism may revitalize thanks to AI
“The one area where I think that's interesting, Jess, is that maybe local journalism will rise again, thanks to AI.”
Dave Morin Dec 19, 2025 ▶ 44:08 Hype vs Reality: Our 2026 Predictions for Tech, Media, and Culture · More or Less Podcast
Dec 19, 2025 bearish
Prediction Held up
Lessin predicts hundreds of journalists will lose their jobs to AI
“I think like hundreds of journalists are going to lose their jobs to AI.”
Jessica Lessin Dec 19, 2025 ▶ 43:55 Hype vs Reality: Our 2026 Predictions for Tech, Media, and Culture · More or Less Podcast
Jan 9, 2026 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dave Morin: AI will radically amplify both curiosity and addictive tendencies
“AI is like an enormous amplifier, right? Like it's going to radically amplify, you know, curious people are more curious. If you want to build more, you can build more. Addictive personalities are going to spiral. Like all the things are going to happen, right…”
Dave Morin Jan 9, 2026 ▶ 41:31 Founders Beware: Illiquid Valuations vs. Real‑World Taxes · More or Less Podcast
Jan 9, 2026 neutral
Opinion
Lessin: The US Needs AI Growth to Solve Its Debt Problem
“We need AI to have any prayer of hitting, you know, the GDP we need to hit, to deal with the debt problem, which I think is like kind of the biggest narrative going on.”
Sam Lessin Jan 9, 2026 ▶ 21:24 Founders Beware: Illiquid Valuations vs. Real‑World Taxes · More or Less Podcast
Jan 16, 2026 bearish
Opinion
Dave Morin: Adding AI to SaaS will not save software businesses
“Like adding AI to your SaaS business is not going to save you and suddenly make software a business again.”
Dave Morin Jan 16, 2026 ▶ 21:02 SaaS Companies Beware: AI Is The New UI (Anthropic's Claude Code and Cowork) · More or Less Podcast
Jan 16, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dave Morin: AI will eliminate traditional user interfaces within five years
“Yeah, just what I'm saying is that like, if you're investing in something now or you're an entrepreneur starting something like you're what you're shooting a rocket that lands five years from now. Right. And so five years from now, like this is going to be cra…”
Dave Morin Jan 16, 2026 ▶ 29:14 SaaS Companies Beware: AI Is The New UI (Anthropic's Claude Code and Cowork) · More or Less Podcast
Feb 13, 2026 neutral
Insight
Sam Lessin: AI Has Created a 24/7 Work Cycle, Not Less Work
“And so to me, I think that's really the, you know, we talk about where the world is going and, you know, people are like, oh, AI is going to make people work less or whatever. No, I think what's happening is, especially right now, it's just created a work cycl…”
Sam Lessin Feb 13, 2026 ▶ 5:45 Why OpenAI Can't Win The Decentralized AI Future (OpenClaw, Apple's Win, X.AI Exodus) · More or Less Podcast
Feb 13, 2026
Disclosure
Sam Lessin spends up to $3,000 monthly on personal AI agents
“My bet is I'm spending, my bet is my full, like, AI tinker budget of things running around doing things for me is on the order of like, 2500 or 3000 dollars a month.”
Sam Lessin Feb 13, 2026 ▶ 10:56 Why OpenAI Can't Win The Decentralized AI Future (OpenClaw, Apple's Win, X.AI Exodus) · More or Less Podcast
Feb 13, 2026 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Brit Morin: Internet sleuths are using AI to analyze Nancy Guthrie case evidence
“People have started using AI to take the photos that the FBI has put out of this guy on the front porch, you know, trying, like trying to cover the Nest Cam. And they've started like using AI to Determine what he might look like under the mask. They, another p…”
Brit Morin Feb 13, 2026 ▶ 58:22 Why OpenAI Can't Win The Decentralized AI Future (OpenClaw, Apple's Win, X.AI Exodus) · More or Less Podcast
Feb 27, 2026 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sam Lessin: AI wealth concentration will lead to economic revolutions
“The latter is gone and the value doesn't get shared, which is how you're going to end up with revolutions”
Sam Lessin Feb 27, 2026 ▶ 27:56 Apple, OpenAI & Why Nobody Makes Money in AI | The SaaS Apocalypse · More or Less Podcast
Feb 27, 2026 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sam Lessin: AI-driven loss of meaning will push people toward extreme cults
“AI is only going to accelerate that because people's sense of meaning goes away. So the market draws us towards cults and community, right? In these extremes and weird shit in order to like create a sense of purpose and meaning.”
Sam Lessin Feb 27, 2026 ▶ 25:35 Apple, OpenAI & Why Nobody Makes Money in AI | The SaaS Apocalypse · More or Less Podcast
Feb 27, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sam Lessin: AI is driving all software profit margins to zero
“You know, AI is taking all of the software margins to zero, so now we do meat.”
Sam Lessin Feb 27, 2026 ▶ 1:57 Apple, OpenAI & Why Nobody Makes Money in AI | The SaaS Apocalypse · More or Less Podcast
Feb 27, 2026 bullish
Insight
Lessin: Scarce, non-digitizable compounding assets will thrive in AI economy
“If you own something that is fundamentally valuable and compounding, you're gonna do great, right? If you own scarce assets that are not digitizable or replaceable, you're gonna do great.”
Sam Lessin Feb 27, 2026 ▶ 27:12 Apple, OpenAI & Why Nobody Makes Money in AI | The SaaS Apocalypse · More or Less Podcast
Feb 27, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sam Lessin: Software workers will be eviscerated and potentially replaced by nothing
“I actually think of anything like a lot of people who like had a skill that was valuable, and allowed them to a lot of comfort and like to feel like they had a role economically or whatever are just going to get eviscerated. And it's very possible it gets repl…”
Sam Lessin Feb 27, 2026 ▶ 34:09 Apple, OpenAI & Why Nobody Makes Money in AI | The SaaS Apocalypse · More or Less Podcast
Mar 6, 2026 neutral
Insight
Morin: AI players release open-source models as distribution when behind
“Partially in AI, I think you're doing open source if you're behind, right? Like it's a distribution strategy.”
Dave Morin Mar 6, 2026 ▶ 45:13 Fire Sam Altman, The End of Software Engineers, and Why AI Is All Narrative · More or Less Podcast
Mar 6, 2026 neutral
Insight
Sam Lessin: AI boom is narrative collusion among Washington, tech, and finance
“For two years, I've been saying like, look, there's this like triangle trade between DC, Silicon Valley and New York, whereas huge deficit, huge debt problem. GDP has to grow massively fast in order to deal with it. It's like the only way out because we can't …”
Sam Lessin Mar 6, 2026 ▶ 38:38 Fire Sam Altman, The End of Software Engineers, and Why AI Is All Narrative · More or Less Podcast
Mar 20, 2026 bullish
Assertion Open · timeframe Mar 2027
Britt Morin: Gen Alpha's AI usage is growing faster than anyone else's
“I think we should all be very cautionary about Gen Alpha right now, like the 10 to 15 year olds, because like their use of AI is growing faster than anyone's.”
Brit Morin Mar 20, 2026 ▶ 52:46 Nvidia’s GTC Was “Taylor Swift for Straight Men” (Apple, OpenAI, and OpenClaw News) · More or Less Podcast
Apr 3, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sam Lessin: Huge AI premiums will be charged for security and privacy
“I think all the money is not gonna be made on who can run the most tokens fastest or build the coolest shit, because everyone will go infinitely fast on that. You'll be able to charge an enormous premium for security and privacy, but the problem is, is like, t…”
Sam Lessin Apr 3, 2026 ▶ 13:00 OpenAI's $852 Billion Valuation Makes Zero Sense (ClawCon Tokyo, Anthropic's Leak, Goodbye Internet)
Apr 3, 2026
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sam Lessin: The 'move fast' AI crowd will beat security-focused competitors
“I think the as fast as possible crowd will generally win because they'll be able to get more cool stuff done faster, but it will create a huge security. It's a huge problem.”
Sam Lessin Apr 3, 2026 ▶ 12:32 OpenAI's $852 Billion Valuation Makes Zero Sense (ClawCon Tokyo, Anthropic's Leak, Goodbye Internet)
Apr 3, 2026 positive
Opinion
Brit Morin: Japanese Sentiment Toward AI Is Far More Positive Than US
“And like everyone's perspective on AI is quite positive here versus in the U S it's like so negative, you know, AI is less popular than ice in the U S like all kinds of terrible things. And in Japan, they're just like, oh yeah, like it seems it's fine. Like ob…”
Brit Morin Apr 3, 2026 ▶ 4:14 OpenAI's $852 Billion Valuation Makes Zero Sense (ClawCon Tokyo, Anthropic's Leak, Goodbye Internet)
Apr 3, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sam Lessin: Autonomous Agents Importing Unknown Code Will Trigger Trust Collapse
“The second cataclysm of AI is gonna be, you're just gonna, like, have all these agents running around doing crazy shit, and including things they have no idea what they're doing, and they'll check the APIs, be like, yeah, that thing works, and it sort of will,…”
Sam Lessin Apr 3, 2026 ▶ 13:42 OpenAI's $852 Billion Valuation Makes Zero Sense (ClawCon Tokyo, Anthropic's Leak, Goodbye Internet)
Apr 3, 2026 neutral
Opinion
Sam Lessin: Japan Welcomes AI Because of Population Decline
“Well, to be clear, the Japanese are also much more okay with this because they're running out of people.”
Sam Lessin Apr 3, 2026 ▶ 6:15 OpenAI's $852 Billion Valuation Makes Zero Sense (ClawCon Tokyo, Anthropic's Leak, Goodbye Internet)
Apr 3, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lessin: AI will drastically worsen open-source supply chain security vulnerabilities
“I do think that what's happening with AI, this is just going to get so much worse because all of a sudden everyone dangerously skips permissions.”
Sam Lessin Apr 3, 2026 ▶ 9:59 OpenAI's $852 Billion Valuation Makes Zero Sense (ClawCon Tokyo, Anthropic's Leak, Goodbye Internet)
Apr 17, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Morin: Starlink is Musk's way to put AI data centers in space
“And I think this is like Elon's way of getting data centers in space and everything that we need to power the AI future that we have.”
Brit Morin Apr 17, 2026 ▶ 23:42 Allbirds Pivoted to AI Data Centers | SpaceX $1.5T IPO, Anthropic $800B, $175M Seed Rounds
Apr 24, 2026
Assertion Supported
Brit Morin: Reese Witherspoon Faced Severe Backlash for Pro-AI Post
“Reese Witherspoon put this thing on Instagram this week, which is just like, wow, I'm so interested in what's happening with AI, and women are pretty far behind on the learning curve here, and I'm like, curious to help them, and she got so much backlash.”
Brit Morin Apr 24, 2026 ▶ 7:41 What Tim Cook’s “Executive Chairman” Move Really Means | Musk vs OpenAI, xAI and Cursor Rumors
Apr 24, 2026 negative
Opinion
AI public backlash stems from deep existential societal issues
“This is not like a brand, this is like a deep existential society problem, I think, honestly. Like, I don't think branding is going to solve this.”
Jessica Lessin Apr 24, 2026 ▶ 6:27 What Tim Cook’s “Executive Chairman” Move Really Means | Musk vs OpenAI, xAI and Cursor Rumors
Apr 24, 2026 negative
Opinion
Startups hyping AI danger to raise money caused the public backlash
“And it's like, actually, this was the entire marketing strategy. Right? Like, if you think about it, like, the irony of the whole thing is everyone's like, everyone hates that. It's like, well, your money-raising strategy has been to run around, including the …”
Sam Lessin Apr 24, 2026 ▶ 6:40 What Tim Cook’s “Executive Chairman” Move Really Means | Musk vs OpenAI, xAI and Cursor Rumors
May 1, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Sam Lessin argues energy and memory are where AI money is made
“Actually this, it's going to be energy and memory. Energy and memory is where the money is made.”
Sam Lessin May 1, 2026 ▶ 44:25 Elon Musk vs OpenAI Trial, Google Cloud Surge, Meta’s Blocked Acquisition, Anthropic Winning · More or Less Podcast
May 8, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Morin: AI could reduce software-driven inequality over the next 20 years
“I think this is, there's like a likelihood that the inequality that has been driven by software entrepreneurship up until this point is that kind of a local maxima and that because today anyone in the world can create software at a pace that was impossible six…”
Dave Morin May 8, 2026 ▶ 15:07 Why the Met Gala Hates Tech, Elon vs OpenAI Drama, and the Rise of Chinese AI Models · More or Less Podcast
May 8, 2026 negative
Opinion
Morin: Tech layoffs stem from pandemic overhiring, AI is just an excuse
“Everybody is doing this because they overhired in the pandemic. AI is a convenient excuse.”
Dave Morin May 8, 2026 ▶ 23:39 Why the Met Gala Hates Tech, Elon vs OpenAI Drama, and the Rise of Chinese AI Models · More or Less Podcast
May 29, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Startup developers are increasingly whispering to AI tools in the office
“She highlighted the trend of developers whispering to their AI. So if you go into an office of a startup, you shall see many a whispering.”
Amir Efrati May 29, 2026 ▶ 1:38 Normal People Don't Want AI Agents (And Silicon Valley Can't Accept It) · More or Less Podcast
Jun 5, 2026 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Lessin: AI survey shows lower approval rating than Jeffrey Epstein
“I believe that in a recent survey, AI has a lower approval rating than Jeffrey Epstein. It's, like, six percent.”
Sam Lessin Jun 5, 2026 ▶ 13:53 Silicon Valley IPO Summer 2026: SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI Explained
Jul 3, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Brit Morin: There is no 'VC summer' slowdown in AI right now
“I don't think in AI there's VC summer. I don't have a VC summer right now.”
Brit Morin Jul 3, 2026 ▶ 1:47 Every CTO Is Quietly Switching Off Anthropic and OpenAI | GLM 5.2, Vox Americanus, Claude Fable 5 · More or Less Podcast
Jul 10, 2026 bearish
Assertion Partly supported
Morin: AI is less popular in the US than Jeffrey Epstein
“And I just think that that's the simple thing here, which is that AI is less popular than ICE and Jeffrey Epstein.”
Dave Morin Jul 10, 2026 ▶ 9:37 AI Frontier Lab Is Essentially Doomed | Open AI Offered U.S. Equity, Xbox Is In Trouble, Post-AGI · More or Less Podcast
Jul 31, 2026 positive
Opinion
Lessin: X Has Established Itself as the Primary AI Town Square
“It is really clear now that to me, like X is not just the town square, but it's really like the AI town square.”
Jessica Lessin Jul 31, 2026 ▶ 39:11 The Lilian Weng Saga, Mental Health Essay Then OpenAI | Meta's AI Ad, China Cracks DUV
Jul 31, 2026 negative
Opinion
Morin: AI Researchers Wanting to Slow Development Down Should Just Quit
“I don't understand this letter because if you want to slow it down, just quit. You don't have to work on, you don't have to work on AI anymore.”
Dave Morin Jul 31, 2026 ▶ 49:12 The Lilian Weng Saga, Mental Health Essay Then OpenAI | Meta's AI Ad, China Cracks DUV
Aug 7, 2026 negative
Insight
Dave Morin: Workers are growing tired of copy-pasted AI workplace slop
“I think people are getting extremely sick of Consuming AI slop in their work days. You hear this refrain is really starting to kick up. Do not send me work slop. I literally don't work with humans so that like the human can talk to the AI and then copy and pas…”
Dave Morin Aug 7, 2026 ▶ 43:35 Jeff Dean Leaves Google, Airtable Sells, and the Bag-Securing Era · More or Less Podcast
Aug 7, 2026 bearish
Opinion
Morin: AI makes lightweight UI tools like Airtable and Retool obsolete
“The reality of Airtable and tools like it Is that AI has made it, you know, there's like other businesses that were really, really flying, like in the Airtable days, like Retool and these kind of lightweight UI layers that made it easier to interact with datab…”
Dave Morin Aug 7, 2026 ▶ 25:34 Jeff Dean Leaves Google, Airtable Sells, and the Bag-Securing Era · More or Less Podcast
Aug 7, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lessin: Casual games will be demolished as users generate their own via AI
“Casual games are just going to get demolished because forget just like connecting to a database. I'll just build my own game. Like I don't need the stupid ads anymore.”
Sam Lessin Aug 7, 2026 ▶ 26:59 Jeff Dean Leaves Google, Airtable Sells, and the Bag-Securing Era · More or Less Podcast
Aug 21, 2026 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
The narrative that AI will have a single uncatchable winner is false
“And tell the story there'll be one winner in AI and it will be us because we will compound to be so far ahead. We're uncatchable. That's clearly not true.”
Sam Lessin Aug 21, 2026 ▶ 30:21 OpenAI Can’t Hold a Lead, Stripe Buys OpenRouter & AI Hits a Wall · More or Less Podcast
Aug 21, 2026 bearish
Opinion
Data center backlash is driven by a visceral dislike of AI slop
“The backlash is about that AI sucks and it is inhuman. No one has ever seen an AI video or read an AI essay. They like, intuitively dislike this experience. There's like a visceral feeling to this. And so the trying to stop the data centers, I think is about t…”
Dave Morin Aug 21, 2026 ▶ 47:16 OpenAI Can’t Hold a Lead, Stripe Buys OpenRouter & AI Hits a Wall · More or Less Podcast
Aug 21, 2026 bearish
Opinion
Enterprises are unready to adopt generative AI despite top sales teams
“Enterprises are not ready to adopt this stuff we're talking about. Even the best of the best sales teams are having problems convincing the human factor in all of these organizations to adopt this stuff.”
Dave Morin Aug 21, 2026 ▶ 48:48 OpenAI Can’t Hold a Lead, Stripe Buys OpenRouter & AI Hits a Wall · More or Less Podcast
Aug 21, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Global liquidity of AI models will drive prices to zero sustainable profit
“AI is globally liquid with no borders and is easy to transport. So you're going to get the lowest cost provider. There's no money to make.”
Sam Lessin Aug 21, 2026 ▶ 33:24 OpenAI Can’t Hold a Lead, Stripe Buys OpenRouter & AI Hits a Wall · More or Less Podcast
Aug 21, 2026 negative
Opinion
Rural Americans do not care about AI and actively dislike it
“Well, I can tell you that after having been in, like, real rural America for the last, like, six weeks, no one gives a fuck about AI. No one uses AI. People don't care. They dislike it.”
Brit Morin Aug 21, 2026 ▶ 45:54 OpenAI Can’t Hold a Lead, Stripe Buys OpenRouter & AI Hits a Wall · More or Less Podcast
Aug 28, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sam Lessin bets Apple will dominate in 10 years avoiding AI capex
“So I'm going to bet that it's kind of one of these accidental genius moves, right? Which is that he goes down in history and Apple looks Fucking great, because they avoided a incinerator box of cash, and they're gonna be on top in 10 years.”
Sam Lessin Aug 28, 2026 ▶ 49:08 Meta’s $17B Reckoning & Why Parents Can’t Compete With Big Tech's Algorithm · More or Less Podcast
Aug 28, 2026 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dave Morin predicts AI harms will be far worse than social media
“AI is gonna be so much worse.”
Dave Morin Aug 28, 2026 ▶ 30:20 Meta’s $17B Reckoning & Why Parents Can’t Compete With Big Tech's Algorithm · More or Less Podcast
Sep 4, 2026 neutral
Insight
Lessin: Generative AI makes every startup pitch look reasonable to investors
“Now we're at the point where like every company seems reasonable. Because it's all passed through 87 AIs at this point before you see it. And so it's not like the deck, it's like all this stuff seems reasonable.”
Sam Lessin Sep 4, 2026 ▶ 44:40 AI Agents Are Going Rogue. Should We Be Worried? │Claude vs. Grok, Tesla vs Waymo, Google vs Canva · More or Less Podcast
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