Facebook

also referred to as: meta

includes Facebook (app), Facebook Live

41 statements across 23 episodes · 7 bullish · 18 bearish · 22 people on the record · first statement Jan 23, 2018 by Michael Mauboussin · said 353 times in 80 episodes since 2015 · across every show →

Mentions by year, the whole family

brought up most by Shane Parrish (118), Nir Eyal (26), Benedict Evans (17), Balaji Srinivasan (16), Jeff Annello (14), Garry Tan (9), Gabriel Weinberg (9), Daniel Gross (9)

tap a year for its mentions
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0815201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026episodes it came up in
0047.5815201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026episodesmentions per episode
2026 30 mentions in 5 episodes 6 per episode
2025 79 mentions in 10 episodes 8 per episode
2024 10 mentions in 5 episodes 2 per episode
2023 7 mentions in 5 episodes 1 per episode
2022 21 mentions in 6 episodes 4 per episode
2021 43 mentions in 10 episodes 4 per episode
2020 15 mentions in 7 episodes 2 per episode
2019 37 mentions in 7 episodes 5 per episode
2018 75 mentions in 14 episodes 5 per episode
2017 9 mentions in 4 episodes 2 per episode
2016 22 mentions in 4 episodes 6 per episode
2015 5 mentions in 3 episodes 2 per episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about Facebook, oldest first

Jan 23, 2018 bullish
Opinion
Mauboussin: Tech giants leverage capital into insurmountable data capture flywheels
“The amount of data that they can capture, and because all those companies have substantial resources, they can put a lot of resources against not only capturing, but analyzing data. It's an interesting flywheel, right?”
Michael Mauboussin Jan 23, 2018 ▶ 33:58 #28 Michael Mauboussin: A Decision Making Jedi
Feb 21, 2018 neutral
Insight
Shifting Historical Contexts Cause Valid Psychological Replication Failures
“By definition, we believe that phenomena change as a function of the social context. That's the heart of social psychology. If I'm in one situation, I behave differently than in another situation or one context. And I think that what we should start to make su…”
Dacher Keltner Feb 21, 2018 ▶ 36:08 #29 Dacher Keltner: Survival of the Kindest
Aug 21, 2018 negative
Insight
Cowen: Simple, boring digital habits beat ambitious tech as killer apps
“I think my intuition is people like simple, boring things, ah, much more than you might imagine. I mean, people just love spending time on Facebook and sending back and forth short, silly, or not very informative messages. And that's been the killer app for so…”
Tyler Cowen Aug 21, 2018 ▶ 9:42 #39 Tyler Cowen: Thinking About Thinking
Aug 21, 2018
Insight
Tyler Cowen: Capturing attention is hardest among high-income earners
“Of course, it's much harder to get everyone's attention. Most of all, people who have high incomes because there are so many demands on their time, but there's your email flow, there's Twitter, there's Facebook, there's being texted.”
Tyler Cowen Aug 21, 2018 ▶ 3:54 #39 Tyler Cowen: Thinking About Thinking
Sep 5, 2018 neutral
Insight
Publishers must distribute on Facebook's terms because the platform owns demand
“The fundamental difference between, let's say, a newspaper previously that controlled the printing presses and Facebook. Is that Facebook has the users such that suppliers, and this being content organizations, new organizations, have no choice but to go to us…”
Ben Thompson Sep 5, 2018 ▶ 45:16 #40 Ben Thompson: Thriving in a Digital World
Sep 5, 2018 negative
Opinion
Facebook's structural disruption of media enabled Donald Trump's political rise
“The structural changes that Facebook has imposed on the media, which is inextricably linked to the power of political parties, is what enabled the lives of Trump, for example, right?”
Ben Thompson Sep 5, 2018 ▶ 3:06 #40 Ben Thompson: Thriving in a Digital World
Sep 5, 2018 neutral
Insight
The greatest existential threat to tech aggregators is shifting consumer sentiment
“And given that these companies gain their power through owning the customer relationship, the greatest danger is always a turn in customer sentiment.”
Ben Thompson Sep 5, 2018 ▶ 1:04:27 #40 Ben Thompson: Thriving in a Digital World
Sep 5, 2018 negative
Insight
Building a new mass-market digital advertising business is no longer viable
“The real sort of problematic angle to Google and Facebook is less the consumer front end and more the advertiser back end such that it's not really viable to build a mass market advertising business in the current day because Facebook and Google are so dominan…”
Ben Thompson Sep 5, 2018 ▶ 1:01:16 #40 Ben Thompson: Thriving in a Digital World
Sep 5, 2018 neutral
Insight
Platform incentives forced media to cover Trump by replacing editorial gatekeeping
“The news covered Trump because people wanted to see more Trump. They wanted, they, and so the news in media organizations were responding To the incentives that they had in a world where they were no longer gatekeepers, they were sort of serfs in Google and Fa…”
Ben Thompson Sep 5, 2018 ▶ 43:48 #40 Ben Thompson: Thriving in a Digital World
Sep 5, 2018 negative
Insight
Privacy regulations like GDPR disproportionately entrench monopolies like Google and Facebook
“If you realize that there is still going to be digital advertising, The alternatives to Google and Facebook are going to be hurt way more. Like is, is every site with advertising on it going to get permission from users for each of the individual ad networks t…”
Ben Thompson Sep 5, 2018 ▶ 1:26:26 #40 Ben Thompson: Thriving in a Digital World
Sep 5, 2018 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tech giants will be disrupted by paradigm shifts, not direct competitors
“Their sort of upheaval and downfall will come not from someone being in a garage alone. It will come from someone being in a garage who latches onto the next paradigm shift that makes it impossible for, you know, the powers that be to compete.”
Ben Thompson Sep 5, 2018 ▶ 1:05:11 #40 Ben Thompson: Thriving in a Digital World
Sep 5, 2018 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Future job growth will stem from digital micro-businesses, not Big Tech
“And I think those are where the jobs of the future are going to come from. They're not going to come from A Facebook”
Ben Thompson Sep 5, 2018 ▶ 1:19:15 #40 Ben Thompson: Thriving in a Digital World
Dec 26, 2018 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Robinson: US Tech Giants Own User Data Unlike European Frameworks
“In the United States, You don't own your data. Google does, or Facebook. It's their corporate data. But in Europe, the individual owns his or her data.”
Adam Robinson Dec 26, 2018 ▶ 18:56 #48 Adam Robinson: Winning at the Great Game (Part 2)
Mar 19, 2019 negative
Opinion
Jason Fried strongly dislikes Facebook and its business practices
“We don't like Facebook. I don't like their company.”
Jason Fried Mar 19, 2019 ▶ 31:06 #54 Jason Fried: Doing the Enough Thing
Apr 16, 2019
Insight
Gross: Enduring corporate culture is built through scarcity, not early abundance
“It's in many ways in, in scarcity where, where you build culture. It's not in an era of plenty. And one of the most challenging things I think for Google and Facebook's culture is, you know, they really stuck a toothpick into the sand and had a massive oil wel…”
Daniel Gross Apr 16, 2019 ▶ 31:13 #56 Daniel Gross: Catalyzing Success
Apr 16, 2019 neutral
Insight
Gross: Corporate cultures emerge directly from underlying tech business models
“So in, in many ways, I think the cultural differences between Google and Apple or Facebook and Apple are just emerging properties of an ads driven business model versus we sell you shrink wrapped, you know, pieces of hardware business model.”
Daniel Gross Apr 16, 2019 ▶ 24:25 #56 Daniel Gross: Catalyzing Success
May 14, 2019 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Weinberg: Google and Facebook hold a duopoly over digital advertising
“In the world, there's a duopoly in digital advertising, and it's Google and Facebook owns basically all the digital advertising on the web, which relates to all this data profiles.”
Gabriel Weinberg May 14, 2019 ▶ 15:36 Gabriel Weinberg: Practical Steps to Safeguard Your Data and Identity Online
May 14, 2019 negative
Assertion Supported
Google Tracks 80% of the Top Million Websites; Facebook Tracks 25%
“Google's on about 80% of the top million sites and a lot of that's Google Analytics, but also, like the Google Ads and stuff like that. Facebook's on 25% and that's this Facebook pixel where it could be the Facebook login, or just sites run Facebook ads, or th…”
Gabriel Weinberg May 14, 2019 ▶ 11:07 Gabriel Weinberg: Practical Steps to Safeguard Your Data and Identity Online
Jun 9, 2020 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
McLean: Google and Facebook's models will be impaired if journalism dies
“Google and Facebook, right? They're siphoning up most of the advertising dollars that used to go to journalism, and yet Google and Facebook, it will deeply impair their business models if journalism ceases to function, right?”
Bethany McLean Jun 9, 2020 ▶ 38:27 #85 Bethany McLean: Crafting a Narrative
Oct 13, 2020 negative
Disclosure
Chamath Palihapitiya claims he sold all his Facebook shares in 2014
“In 20, 20 14, I sold all Facebook, all my shares.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 13, 2020 ▶ 42:40 #94 Chamath Palihapitiya: Understanding Yourself
Dec 8, 2020
Insight
Lavingia: Startups Need Billion-Dollar Upside to Attract Big-Tech Talent
“The early employees might only have half a percent of the company, one percent of the company, two percent of the company. And so they also are looking for it. I mean, they're turning down offers for, you know, from Facebook and Google and Uber at like, you kn…”
Sahil Lavingia Dec 8, 2020 ▶ 16:57 #98 Sahil Lavingia: Observing the Present
Jan 5, 2021 negative
Insight
Mullenweg: Successful platforms capture only 5% of ecosystem revenue
“And I kept finding this ratio that's like 20 to one everywhere in successful platforms, not in fake platforms, like it's not on the Facebook platform. Facebook made like 90% of the dollars in that ecosystem, but in others.”
Matt Mullenweg Jan 5, 2021 ▶ 13:03 #100 Matt Mullenweg: Collaboration Is Key
Feb 16, 2021 neutral
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Eyal: Facebook will not block feed-eradicating browser extensions
“I think the blowback would be so severe if they tried to do something about it that I can't see that on their radar.”
Nir Eyal Feb 16, 2021 ▶ 53:30 #104 Nir Eyal: Mastering Indistraction
Feb 16, 2021 positive
Insight
Eyal: Tech distraction is not users' fault, but it is their responsibility
“You didn't invent Facebook. You didn't invent Twitter or Slack or any of these tech companies. You didn't invent that stuff. It's not your fault. But lots of things in life are not your fault, but they are still your responsibility. And so the price of progres…”
Nir Eyal Feb 16, 2021 ▶ 13:05 #104 Nir Eyal: Mastering Indistraction
Jun 29, 2021 negative
Assertion Supported
Hertz: Stanford study showed deactivating Facebook reduces loneliness and increases socializing
“And there was a landmark study that was carried out by Stanford University about a year and a half ago, a real gold standard of a study where they had 3000 participants, 1500 in a control group, and the other 1500 were expressly charged to go off, in this case…”
Noreena Hertz Jun 29, 2021 ▶ 6:43 #114 Noreena Hertz: The Crisis of Loneliness
Dec 21, 2021 positive
Assertion Supported
Nir Eyal: Science does not support claims that digital media damages brains
“So don't believe these chicken little tech critics that say video games are melting your brain and Facebook is melting your brain and everything is melting your brain. Ridiculous. The science doesn't support that at all, right?”
Nir Eyal Dec 21, 2021 ▶ 1:11:46 #127 Best of 2021: Conversations of the Year
Dec 21, 2021 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Norena Hertz: Quitting Facebook for two months significantly reduces loneliness
“And there was a landmark study that was carried out by Stanford University about a year and a half ago, a real gold standard of a study where they had 3000 participants 1500 in a control group, and the other 1500 were expressly charged to go off, in this case,…”
Noreena Hertz Dec 21, 2021 ▶ 16:15 #127 Best of 2021: Conversations of the Year
Apr 5, 2022 bullish
Opinion
Meta is extremely underrated because Mark Zuckerberg remains founder and CEO
“Because Facebook still has its founder and that's the most important thing. Like Zuck will take the hits of pushing them into new territory, even with the five hundred billion dollar markdown or whatever that they just had. Like I'm still more bullish on them …”
Balaji Srinivasan Apr 5, 2022 ▶ 2:45:23 Balaji Srinivasan: The Network State
Sep 3, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Dicks: Early Facebook retention hinged on acquiring seven friends in ten days
“At Facebook early on when they were failing to gain traction, they looked at their data and they realized that if a user accumulated seven friends, made seven friends or seven connections on Facebook in 10 days, they were likely to stay on the platform. And if…”
Matthew Dicks Sep 3, 2024 ▶ 1:26:59 Matthew Dicks: The Storytelling Expert
Jan 21, 2025 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Startups building incremental AI refinements will become roadkill for Big Tech
“Other things that, you know, I'd say we try to avoid is things that are roadkill along the way of a company like OpenAI or Google or Amazon or Meta. So, small refinements into what the model doesn't do well today. That's just gonna be real cool along the way.”
Alfred Lin Jan 21, 2025 ▶ 1:44:31 How to Win by Being Right and Contrarian: Lessons from Zappos to DoorDash
Mar 4, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wolfe: AI Agents Interacting on Frontends Portend the Death of APIs
“There's another adjacent theme, which I think is also really interesting, which is AI portends the death of APIs. So APIs allow meta with their meta glasses or Ryan to be able to communicate with Uber and, you know, Spotify through the backend, through softwar…”
Josh Wolfe Mar 4, 2025 ▶ 6:48 Josh Wolfe: Human Advantage in the World of AI
Apr 15, 2025 bearish
Insight
Taylor: Pre-training a fourth-best foundation model offers highly questionable ROI
“If you're pre-training a foundation model that's the fourth best that's gonna cost you a lot of money, and the return on that investment is, is probably fairly questionable, because why use your fourth best large language model versus a frontier model or an op…”
Bret Taylor Apr 15, 2025 ▶ 1:01:10 Bret Taylor: A Vision for AI’s Next Frontier
Apr 29, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Tan: Meta Is an AI Dark Horse Accelerating Progress Cheaply vs AR
“I mean, I think Meta's sort of the dark horse, because, like, they are amassing talent, and then they have crazy distribution. And I think you know, I just would never count Zuck out. I think that he, you know, that it's so crazy that it's super smart that he …”
Garry Tan Apr 29, 2025 ▶ 1:59:05 Y Combinator CEO Garry Tan: Turning Ambitious Misfits into Founders
Apr 29, 2025 positive
Opinion
Garry Tan: Meta open-sourcing foundational AI models is 'God's work'
“What Zuck and Ahmad and the team over there are doing is frankly God's work. I think it's great that they're doing what they're doing and I hope they continue.”
Garry Tan Apr 29, 2025 ▶ 1:15:39 Y Combinator CEO Garry Tan: Turning Ambitious Misfits into Founders
Sep 2, 2025 negative
Insight
Evans: Google and Meta's proprietary data provides no LLM training moat
“So I'd actually, I think it's actually the opposite, which is that everyone's kind of using the same data. Which is you need such an enormous amount of generalized text that the amount that Google has or that Meta has is not actually enough to move, to be a ki…”
Benedict Evans Sep 2, 2025 ▶ 12:08 Why Everyone Is Wrong About AI (Including You) | Benedict Evans
Sep 2, 2025 neutral
Insight
Evans: Meta and Amazon want LLMs to become commoditized infrastructure
“What Meta and Amazon want to do is to make LLM's commodity info that sold at cost. This is why Meta made it open source, because they want to make it commodity info that sold at cost, and they differentiate on top with Meta stuff, with Facebook, social, Instag…”
Benedict Evans Sep 2, 2025 ▶ 1:06:31 Why Everyone Is Wrong About AI (Including You) | Benedict Evans
Sep 2, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Evans: Big Tech capex reached $220B and will surpass $300B
“I think last year the Google, Google, Microsoft, AWS, and Meta spent about two hundred and twenty billion dollars of CapEx last year, And we'll probably spend something over 300 this year.”
Benedict Evans Sep 2, 2025 ▶ 1:00:37 Why Everyone Is Wrong About AI (Including You) | Benedict Evans
Jun 2, 2026
Assertion Supported
Pincus: Roughly 20% of Facebook users played FarmVille at its peak
“And Farmville was the first time that we hit this, like, mass market consumer tipping point where lots of people knew about Mafia Wars, but with Farmville, we hit this density on the social network and the feed with Facebook that something I think, like, 20% o…”
Mark Pincus Jun 2, 2026 ▶ 43:26 You Don’t Need To Innovate To Be Successful | FarmVille Creator
Jun 2, 2026 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Pincus: Only Zynga and Spotify survived Facebook's app ecosystem
“The entire Facebook experience for Zynga was a near-death experience, and not just us, for everyone in their app ecosystem, it was the least stable app ecosystem ever imagined or invented, and many companies did die in it. Most. There's only two companies that…”
Mark Pincus Jun 2, 2026 ▶ 45:54 You Don’t Need To Innovate To Be Successful | FarmVille Creator
Jun 2, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Pincus: Zynga drove 20% of Facebook page views and 10% of revenue at IPO
“They gave it on Friday, and they said, you have till Monday to sign this agreement, or we're gonna take down your apps, which was their right and that could have happened the whole way through, and who knows what would have happened, because, you know, at this…”
Mark Pincus Jun 2, 2026 ▶ 47:44 You Don’t Need To Innovate To Be Successful | FarmVille Creator
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