AI

“I think the whole world could benefit from like a decade of rebuilding where people focus internally on building their countries and their societies and their infrastructure and their economies. Focus on AI. I think a lot of these issues could be resolved pret…”

“But ultimately I think the topic that will probably Be the most impactful of the next four years will be how president Trump deals with artificial intelligence and what could be AGI or super intelligence and how this is coming very rapidly.”

“The way we're thinking about AI today is much different than how we were thinking about it a year ago. We thought it was a big opportunity a year ago, but it wasn't as investable necessarily as it is today.”

“And I think there was a knee jerk reaction from the market. We will have more of these, right? That is just part of this.”

“There's a recognition, like we saw in the valuation bubble bursting of late 21, 22, that there are nuanced bets here that are distinct, but that if there's a problem in AI, so to speak, and we can define what that may look like, these are all going to trade li…”

“Our map is not three-dimensional like RGB, it's about 300 dimensional, which is, I think, why scent had to wait for artificial intelligence to be digitized, because it's just more complicated.”

“I happen to feel it's going to be a big benefit in production, especially in production planning with respect to creativity.”

“I think that in the playing field of life, it advantages someone like me who works you know, fairly independently. I don't have like a giant team in investing”

“Right now, an enormous amount of information is not in the internet, right? So if I were to grill an AI about all things like Medicare, Medicaid, managed care, it knows a lot. If I grilled about Carvana, we pretty quickly run out of stuff. Like this interview …”

“I've seen studies from other big companies that if you actually measure out of a developer's time, this, the speed up is like seven percent or something, which sounds very disappointing because of all these things, like the net new coding is a small part, net …”

“I think it is the right description, at least in the longer term. I think it is AI or die, just like it was a smartphone or die. And before that, internet or die, computer or die. This is one of those shifts that, you know, it's not your choice whether you ado…”

“I suspect that the conviction in AI is high enough that even if we were to have a six month period where people thought AI was overstated, it would start rebounding very quickly.”

“You know, it's exceptionally great in language. Coding is a actually a tighter form of language. So it's even better at coding.”

“You never had a full correction here because AI came along and everyone got so excited.”

“I think there was a, there still might be a lot of pain to be felt from some of the investments made during that period of time. And there hasn't really, hasn't been a day of reckoning. And a lot of investors have jumped on the AI bandwagon”

“And so we have a data intelligence group that and I'll stumble on some of the metrics that is the front end of our sourcing effort. And there's actually, you know, AI applied here where we have massive number of data sources tracking Employee growth app downlo…”

“Think about technology investors, huge focus on SAS, huge focus on all things AI. And huge de-emphasis of consumer based internet businesses. And so I think that's actually a pretty interesting opportunity where one can be contrarian and we continue to see int…”

“And at some point, I think the AI is going to figure out how to quantify unit units of risk for private capital. That'll happen someday.”

“AI allows you to do precise instruction to the student. So, and then second, measure the results. And if you take the AI out, Right? Your effect is dominated by the classroom.”

“AI, and this is the generative part of AI that really matters, is all educational content is obsolete. Every textbook, every lesson plan, every test. All of it is obsolete because gen AI is going to be able to deliver, generate a personalized lesson just for y…”

“We literally don't have chat functionality activated in our AI. Like, it is not a chatbot. It's terrible. And that's not what people need, right?”

“I would approach this next super period in the same way, which would make me very wary of what now seems to be the cat's meow, which is huge expenditures in areas in which there is no known revenue or no known big revenue to relate to, you know, hundreds of bi…”

“I think many software businesses will have a reckoning with the fact that their cogs is gonna soar, their customer acquisition cost isn't gonna fall, And they have a lot more competitors, and so then they don't hit that escape velocity”

“My business model, like, this is the second highest revenue product for us, would not have been possible if it weren't for AI, like, vibe coding, like, you know, being able to dig through permits and regulatory filings, being able to run image recognition on s…”

“I think it's a little bit overblown of like, oh, AI is replacing jobs and so on. I think most of, even the BPO as we talked to not really that concerned because what typically happens anyways, is that there's already very high turnover in these, BPO's cause li…”

“Today, I think that the US still has a decisive lead on most aspects of artificial intelligence mostly because it has the compute resources here. It has the leading NVIDIA chips, and China does not.”

“But I think if we are going to have much more AI in our lives, I think the competition is much more of a toss-up. Again, looking forward in the next five years, which is a lifetime by the standards of a lot of AI, but maybe, maybe a shorter time span for the r…”

“It's obvious to me that the impact The effects of adopting the technology are transformative, but a lot of companies are still stuck in the very early phases, and I would describe the first very early phase as you are using those, ah, LLMs to do the same work …”

“So we have a massive investment in AI applied to predict future performance based on CVs, cover letters, test results.”

“As far away. Like, it's not months away. It's not even a couple of years away. AI today can't do a lot for you beyond, say, research, copywriting, and maybe some basic content production, but it'll do more and more, and fast.”

“I don't know how to write an algorithm for AI. I don't know how to build a data center. I'm not in a chip business. I just know how to, Create really great live events, monetize them, have a great user experience. And it's the opposite because data says data c…”

“I'm having my normal every six month meeting, lunch, dinner with Elon, and we're talking about AI. He said this to me, he goes, life cannot be disrupted. And I said, okay. I have two ears. So then we're talking about AI and he goes to me, all right, do you hav…”

“This year we'll do 500 projects with the portfolio. A third of them are AI projects.”

“This is more meaningful because it will touch a higher percentage of GDP, right? The internet was the other very meaningful one, but it changes how we interact with each other. This will change much more than that.”

“The advancements of SAS and cloud are Tiny compared to the advancements of what AI is going to do”

“I don't think that the future of how we interact with AI is going to be a chat pot. Like, I just think that's way too limiting. I think the big shift will be a sort of what is reactive today to something that's proactive in the future.”

“You know, it's, you know, it's some big companies that are very tech forward, you know, 50% plus of customer support is already done by AI, and that's a four hundred billion dollar industry.”

“Like one of Karpathy's great things was with software, anything you can specify, you can automate with AI, anything you can verify, you can automate.”

“These young CEOs, they're just so impressive in all ways, and they get more polished faster, and I think the reason is, is they're talking to the AI.”

“You know, if on planet Earth, there's 500 to a thousand people who really, really understand this and are at the cutting edge of it. And a good number of them live in China.”

“I don't know that we're going to be curing cancer, but I do think from a ROI, almost an ROI S curve, we need to kind of hand off from intelligence to usefulness. And then usefulness will then have to hand off to scientific breakthrough, you know, just that cre…”

“In the past they said it would take them, you know, 15 to 45 minutes. And they only quoted 60% of inbound requests. With AI, they're quoting a hundred percent and doing it in seconds.”

“There's all these charts that for a given level of revenue, a company today Has significantly lower employees than a company of two years ago. And the reason is AI is doing a lot of the sales, the support, and helping to make the product.”

“I actually think these private equity firms are going to be pretty good at systematically applying AI.”

“AI is the first time in my career as a tech investor that being the low-cost producers ever mattered. Apple is not worth trillions because they're the low-cost producer of phones. Microsoft is not worth trillions because they're the low-cost producer of softwa…”

“The free tier is like you're dealing with a ten-year-old and you're making conclusions about the ten-year-old's capabilities as an adult and you could just pay. And I do think actually you do need to pay for the highest tier. Whether it's Gemini Ultra, you kno…”

“Think it probably is more impactful than the internet was. It's not only gonna affect obviously every technology company, which, you know, you see in the markets, but it's also Going to impact in this case, I think almost every company that, you know, needs wh…”

“In terms of like recognizing a K-pop demon hunters at a script stage you know, or pitch stage, which is the biggest value creator, you know, which things do we back? That will be a far distant skill.”

“And so now with software, we can have individualized instruction and the teachers become more like social workers where they are helping on discussion social, emotional learning a lot of the more human and emotional factors, but the content transfer you know, …”

“And then, you know, from our perspective, I think the bigger thing is AI is You know, it's gonna impact everything. There's almost no problem you can think of that you can't go. Well, we have a real shot at solving that with AI. It's from, you know, what were …”

“And then AI is another layer on top of that in that, okay, now take that same product. And make it just more valuable thing. And so whoever invents that is whatever the internet company was plus, plus, plus. And so that's going to make them even richer.”

“The internet is here, so if you want to use AI, if you want to apply it to your business, you just do it. Like, there is no infrastructure that needs to be built to adopt the thing.”

“I think AI will help you make movies both better and at much lower cost because you can do, you know, you can shoot a scene and then have the AI do a variation of that scene.”

“So that's a big, it's an equalizer of the opportunity in a lot of ways that I don't think we've ever seen a bigger opportunity equalizer than AI in that every child can have like a super advanced, amazing tutor teacher. So like education, Great education is ac…”

“I think the, Need for, like, more creativity jobs is gonna go way up, and the kind of need for, kind of, jobs to process work for the creatives will probably go down in some ways, but I'm not even sure about that.”

“If you look at existing software companies, like people think, oh, they're all dead. Some of these guys are extremely hard targets. Like it's not that easy to take out Salesforce or SAP. You would be surprised even with AI, like how much heavy lifting that is.”

“So I think I mean, systems of record are going to be difficult to displace. I think companies, while You know, it's neat to create software for small productivity enhancements. If you really want to run your entire business on something like an ERP system or a…”

“It has to be the case that if you believe in scaling laws and you believe in AI, that economic growth will be very powerful. I mean, this is the ultimate productivity tool. And what productivity does is allows you to grow while having disinflation, which is li…”

“Art is important because it is created by people, and I think the bold case in art would be, like, as everything else is, like, automated and, you know, in infinite supply because it's being created by AI, You know, art created by people reflects emotion and, …”

“You know, betting that scaling laws are gonna stop is, like, a really low probability assumption. I mean, there's just nothing to suggest that's the case. In fact, everything suggests the opposite”

“In our letter, I said, like, there are going to be a lot of shorts, some longs because of AI. And software's the first one.”

“It is likely that at some point in the future, everything that we do is, ah, you know, arbitraged away by AI.”

“Obviously, the first adopters of AI for us were the youngest hires, and to the point of generate momentum, I didn't really bother with the people who were kind of cynical or, Dismissive of it. I let the young people generate just overwhelming productivity that…”

“We think that the value is going to accrue at the chips layer. And at the ontology layer.”

“If you look at AI, like, our research labs are doing fantastic. Because that's like a consensus oriented problem. If you take a bunch of people that are super smart and you like pretty much like blind off everything from the you and you can all talk and you ca…”

“These are, like, generalist topics that I can probably find a thousand people that have, like, pretty, like, interesting, compelling ideas and can go pretty deep on that. But you can't create value there. You can create value if you're, like, I am the number o…”

“Like hot take here, I think like the biggest, fattest, most inefficient brands are even the best beneficiary of AI because brands have a massive moat and man, there's a lot of costs to cut there.”

“One of our theses is like fintech is probably going to be like the last area that is somewhat maybe disrupted by AI. I think what you'll see is you'll see a collapse in like domestic fintech and enterprise software.”

“And I think over the next three to five years, particularly with how AI and the evolution of these tests are really converging to help them to move faster and faster and to be better and better I think we're gonna wake up within the next five years with really…”

“And this is just the beginning, so I think we'll see large-scale protests against AI in three months.”

“Your ability to implement something is not actually that important. Your ability to choose the correct idea for AI to implement, and then your ability to sell that idea, or sell what the AI has implemented, is what matters. Your ability to garner capital towar…”

“The BLS has this entire Bureau of Labor Statistics has this entire, like, set of, like, 2000 tasks, And so he did that with AI, which ones can be done by AI, which ones cannot and grading them across a rubric, you know, about three percent are doable now with …”

“If this was, I can tell you, if this was anything to do inside Tudor, this thing would have been so contained so long ago. I mean, that's what a good risk manager does, and yet there's zero risk management here.”

“I think that's going to be the biggest challenge potentially in four or five years is what do we do when so many of our jobs have been replaced by AI.”

“The one thing that I think should be part of this next election, the simplest, most important thing that we can do is we can demand that all AI is watermarked. That's the single most transformative thing that we could possibly do for the country, for the world…”

“I mean, almost every app on my home screen has not changed fundamentally since AI, including Airbnb. I think that's going to change in two years.”

“Proof of personhood is going to be really, really important in the age of AI.”

“By the way, I think founder mode is going to be The only way to operate in the age of AI. If you're a giant professional CEO, I think you can operate in a founder mode, but if you're like, you know, risk averse, you want to be incremental, those types of peopl…”

“A lot of what we're doing today is helping to speed up The drug development process, right? A lot of the paperwork and clinical studies reports and things like that that are needed to be done. AI and our solutions in particular are helping to rapidly accelerat…”

“I think the reason Ukraine is really winning is they have the best battlefield AI outside of probably America and Israel.”

“All the economic returns to AI at the model layer, not all of them, but an overwhelming amount of them have been at the frontier, which is surprising to me”

“A violation of Richard Sutton's bitter lesson is for sure the biggest risk to this trade. To all of AI.”

“Maybe it leads to the, another Pax Americana informed by our AI dominance, and I'm so optimistic that AI It's going to be amazing for the world.”

“Going through the proxy, pulling the PSU thing, looking at how it's changed versus all the proxies because there's signal in that. And that's very labor intensive and that's so good for an AI.”

“AI has net destroyed. Even if you count cursor cognition, the most successful AI natives, value has been, trillions of dollars of value has been destroyed by AI at the application layer.”

“I still think there could be a shakeout. There probably will be a shakeout there where there will be some phoenixes that rise from the ashes, but that's been kind of the investment lesson of the last, you know, year or so.”

“I think you always need some human interface in the middle of that, but how that's going to, I think it's highly unlikely that there will be a completely, you know, AI managed capital system.”

“If you think about a continuum of public securities and private equity, the AI will not do Private equity. Always need people to do deals. I think you will. And then you have the kind of the stuff in between that requires a lot of negotiation and human interac…”

“People will ask me about, like, macro, what's important, and I think when people think about macro, they think about all the typical stuff that the government reports, growth, unemployment, inflation, rates, currencies, where's gold, where's crypto, and I thin…”

“The mistake that we made within the last two years, we obviously were looking for, and we've made some great short investments in, or so we've taken some great shorts and things that are being disrupted By AI, but where we've made the mistake is that we're con…”

“I think we're probably more optimistic or I should say that maybe less pessimistic that there's going to be some kind of You know, apocalypse from AI, like I, I'm still pretty optimistic that it will create opportunities and create jobs and create net jobs. Ob…”

“Now what happened last year was really interesting because a lot of these companies that appeared to be super high quality, probably the worst year and going into the beginning of this year because the disruption of AI, a lot of these apparently high quality c…”

“So I think the inbound interaction Is going to move more and more away from apps. I think people are going to use apps, but the inbound interaction is going to be much more unstructured, and AI makes it possible.”

“We are going to meter headcount increases because to the extent that my engineers are getting Much more efficient. Their throughput is increasing. They're becoming superhuman in terms of their output. We, you know, one, there's a cost to that and it's a signif…”

“What's different about Uber than many other companies is, like, we don't just exist in the digital sphere, right? Our experiences encompass digital first in terms of your interaction with our platform, But then they are delivered or fulfilled in the real world…”

“You know, we just said cloud, you know, maybe cloud's eight hundred billion. This might be, you know, we now think three to five, but there's higher risk, higher reward.”

“I find myself using AI every single day, more and more so, and frankly, it raises other questions for me. The more I spend of my day with AI, I'm actually not spending it with my colleagues.”

“Somehow most people seem to still really prefer interacting with a human. And I definitely would like much rather engage with a person than engage with an AI for almost everything.”

“We were pretty sure, although as you mentioned we underestimated, that as the models got better and better, If we could continue to drive costs down, the demand for AI at a sufficiently high level and a sufficiently low price was basically uncapped.”

“I'm actually not a jobs doomer at all. I think there were going to be tons of jobs. I think we'll be busier than we want, not the opposite of that, because I think people will have such creative wishes and such incredible ideas of what they ask AI to help buil…”

“Alec Radford is probably the most important, not very well-known researcher in the whole history of the field.”

“One of the reasons I'm interested in new hardware is we're talking earlier about how a very powerful thing with AI is that it can be always on and proactive and just understand all your context, but current hardware is not, it's not good for that.”

“The number of things that it can't do, I expect to keep receding, but in an evolving world, I think human judgment and taste will continue to be hard for AIs to model like where that's going to go.”

“One, like a boring one, is that AI is just very jagged. It's like superhuman genius in some ways, like dumb toddler and others. And people have, so far, extremely complementary skills to AI.”

“I have started just recently to experiment with what it means to like, let An AI kind of look at everything I'm looking at on my computer. I don't have this built yet. and I'm still trying to feel out like where the limits of my comfort and trust should be.”

“Being able to disaggregate into these three parts like, I think this is gonna be really, really positive for the ROI on AI.”

“And so, I think, in the end, we're gonna end up with this application where AI really does help radiologists. It helps radiologists get more and more higher, higher throughput, because the AI can do some parts, and the radiologists do some parts, and they're c…”

“Repetitive tasks in controlled environments is, like, more or less solved, and, like, you know, that'll continue to happen. But having tweaked tasks in real-world environments, that's where you need the AI. Like, that's where you need the AI plus the robots. A…”

“And I think they view it probably as more of an opportunity than they did the cloud in terms of the potential impact on their business. I think they probably view it more as a threat than they did the cloud.”

“Every single day that you are hitting your plan, you are destroying equity value.”

“Cloud did not scale anywhere close to as quick as what's happening right now.”

“The absolute profits available here, even if the margins are lower, is so much larger that will we look back and Google search was seized candies. And I, it feels like that's what's happening.”

“I think that market is so huge and so large that if the models did not improve at all from where they are right now, the economic opportunity is actually massive.”

“So I, there's a, just a fundamental disconnect that I have with a lot of the rhetoric coming out of Silicon Valley, coming out, I think, of one of the labs in particular, where if we get to a place where we have a meaningful superiority, particularly from, lik…”

“Given they have so many investments in the real world, their core business feels so impervious to AI for like the model version of AI. It will benefit from AI. But their moat feels deeper than anyone as far as their core business and their ability to just sort…”

“AI is this probabilistic endeavor. Apple is the king of deterministic products. Like, a physical product, you ship that iPhone, you ship it once, and it's gotta be good.”

“Even if we have this blow up, the AI is not going away. It's not gonna stop improving. It's going to keep sort of progressing, and in a way that we look back on the dot-com era, or we look back on the railroad era, or we look back on whatever bubbles through h…”

“The long lens view to take on this is that we have a form of intelligence that can tackle any verifiable problem. Any verifiable problem means most software. It means a lot of formal, like math proofs and similar. And it could also mean scientific discovery”

“Automating your foreign policy decision-making process increases deterrence, and so we've turned that over to the AI, and if the AI thinks you're doing this, wham, right? And anything less than that is, no, I'm leaving a human decision point because I might de…”

“India has been pretty successful at developing a tech industry. It's not in the frontier of AI. I think it may get there faster than people think.”