why aren't all 35 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Partly supported
Lore: Quidsi rejected a competing buyout offer $100M higher after Amazon threats
“Yeah, it's even, even worse that we got a higher offer that we didn't take.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Amazon threatened to drop diaper prices to zero if Quidsi resisted sale
“They said, well, yeah, we're gonna take the price of diapers to zero, and we're gonna, you know, and they made some analogies to some other, used explicit language, and it was pretty scary stuff.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Quidsi rejected a $100M higher buyout offer due to Amazon retaliation threats
“Because Amazon very clearly stated that if we took that offer, they would do even more to harm the business.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Amazon explicitly threatened to price diapers at zero to force Quidsi sale
“They said, well, yeah, we're gonna take the price of diapers to zero, and we're gonna, you know, and they made some analogies to some other, used explicit language, and it was pretty scary stuff. I'll just leave it at that.”
Assertion Partly supported
Jet.com raised a $618M Series A while operating with negative gross margins
“But the real key was raising, we did a six hundred and eighteen million dollar Series A. So we'd raised some money before that, and then we had the six hundred million Series A. That was a really tough round to get done. That was, at that time, we had negative…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lore: AI-driven text commerce will act like a best friend recommending products
“Using artificial intelligence and texting, I think people would be able to, in the future, just text what they want, and the system would know you as well as your best friend or family member, and be able to recommend precisely what you want, and either using …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
P&G and Kimberly-Clark initially refused to sell to Diapers.com
“Procter & Gamble and Kimberly Clark, the two big diaper manufacturers that make Pampers and Huggies, they refused to sell us diapers. They said they just don't want to waste their time on a business that's never going to work.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
VCs rejected Quidsi's $100M funding round because Amazon was targeting them
“We had only raised 50,000,055 million dollars up until that point, which was pretty modest amount of money raised compared to today's standards, but we went out and we needed another hundred million to keep all the websites going and to really blow it out. We …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Amazon told Quidsi's team to keep competing against them post-acquisition
“Like, Amazon didn't even, when they brought us in, say, hey, we want you guys to run the mom, baby, parent category within Amazon. They said, you know what, just keep doing what you're doing. Just continue to keep competing with us.”
Assertion Supported
Jet.com reached a $1B revenue run rate within 10 months of launching
“I mean, we got to a billion people Run rate in revenue within 10 months of the business launching, which was I think probably unprecedented at the time.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Jet.com burned roughly $40 million per month after its launch
“We were burning about forty million a month.”
Assertion Supported
Lore: Wonder built 20 mobile restaurant chains that cook at customer doors
“Well, we've built now 20 restaurant chains across all different cuisines, and we put it on a mobile platform so that the restaurant actually comes to you, cooks right outside your door very fast in a high-speed convection oven, and brings the food piping hot t…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lore: Nearly 75% of Wonder customers place a repeat order within 60 days
“Close to three quarters of all the customers that try it will come back in the first 60 days.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lore: Wonder achieved over 70% household penetration in its first launch market
“In Westfield, the first town, we're over 70% household penetration.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lore: Jet.com reached a $1B revenue run rate in 10 months
“I mean, we got to a billion run rate in revenue within 10 months of the business launching, which was, I think, probably unprecedented at the time.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lore: Jet.com was burning about $40M per month
“We were burning about forty million a month.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lore: Jet.com raised $618M despite having negative gross margins
“But the real key was raising, we did a six hundred and eighteen million dollar Series A. So we'd raised some money before that, and then we had the six hundred million Series A. That was a really tough round to get done. That was, at that time, we had negative…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Diapers.com profited by cross-shipping items in the empty space of diaper boxes
“But you could make money, because the way shipping works is, if you're shipping a box of diapers to someone, and you have empty space in that box, the marginal cost to ship the next thing you put in the box is very, very small, very low. Like, it might be, you…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lore: Consumers will refuse to accept soggy delivery fries within ten years
“I don't think. 10 years from now, people are going to still be satisfied with soggy fries.”
Assertion Supported
Lore: Wonder mobile food trucks operate with a single driver-cook
“The one person drives and cooks and brings it to your door. So there's only one person on the truck.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2037
Lore: Rolling Wonder out across the US will take 10 to 15 years
“It's going to take probably, you know, 10 to 15 years to roll it out across the country. It's not something you do in just a couple years.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lore: Diapers.com hit $11M in revenue with only three employees
“At eleven million in sales, it was basically just me and Vinny, and we hired another woman to, like, help us with customer care, and some of the fulfillment, but we got up to eleven million in sales with two people, three people, basically.”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Lore qualified for the U.S. National Bobsled Team by finishing 13th
“And then at the end of the month, they had like the time trials to see who makes the U.S. National team and they were going to take 13 people and I finished 13th.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Marc Lore invested his entire $390,000 life savings to launch The Pit
“I invested 390,000 of my own money into the company. And, you know, the investors, the angel investors said, we're not sure about this idea, but wait, I see here, Mark, you invested 390 grand. That's a lot of money. You know, you're not that old. Why 390 and w…”
Assertion Supported
Online diaper sales did not exist at normal retail prices in 2004
“It might have been 2003, 2004, somewhere around there. You could not buy diapers at a normal price. They were, like, prices were, like, jacked to ridiculous levels. It just wasn't a thing. Nobody bought them online.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Diapers.com reached $11M in sales with only three total employees
“At eleven million in sales, it was basically just me and Vinny, and we hired another woman to, like, help us with customer care and some of the fulfillment. But we got up to eleven million in sales with two people, three people, basically.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Lore: Wonder expects to partner with 30 restaurant chains by July 2023
“So by next summer, by July, we'll have 30 restaurant chains, which we believe is, is around the right number.”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Lore: The Pit raised $5M from 60 angel investors
“We raised five million dollars, all from 60 angel investors.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lore invested his entire $390,000 net worth into The Pit
“I invested 390,000 of my own money Into the company.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lore: The Pit did around $10M in transaction revenue in 10 months
“The first 10 months, we were doing about ten million in transaction revenue.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lore: P&G and Kimberly-Clark refused to wholesale to 1800Diapers
“Procter & Gamble and Kimberly Clark, the two big diaper manufacturers that make Pampers and Huggies, they refused to sell us diapers. They said they'd Just don't want to waste your time on a business that's never going to work.”
Assertion Supported
Lore: Walmart's market cap basically doubled during his tenure
“It's basically double.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Marc Lore became Sanwa Bank's youngest executive vice president at age 28
“Yeah, I was the executive vice president, which was by far the youngest executive vice president. Yeah, I was 28 when I got the job, yeah.”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
The Pit generated $10M in transaction volume in its first 10 months
“The first 10 months, we were doing about ten million in transaction revenue.”
Assertion Supported
Lore: In 2004, consumers could not buy diapers online at normal prices
“It might've been 2003, 2004, somewhere around there. You could not buy diapers at a normal price. They were like, prices were like jacked to ridiculous levels. It just wasn't a thing. Nobody bought them online.”