The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 282 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 52 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Matus: The world will broadly adopt wastewater epidemiology within ten years
“I think that in 10 years, if I look out 10 years, I think that the world will have adopted this type of data collection by large. I think most places will be online, if you will.”
Ferguson: Package delivery will piggyback on on-demand autonomous trips
“And that's what I think genuinely is the future of package delivery. It's that the packages are going to effectively come along for the ride with another on-demand delivery that you are going to get anyway, and I think that's the best possible end consumer exp…”
Hank Green: Tens of thousands of creators can earn middle-class incomes with better monetization
“And so our interest is really in those tens of thousands of creators who will be on that journey if only we have better monetization tools.”
Solomon: Immune system mapping enables data-driven drug discovery
“Having a map of the human immune system will enable researchers to apply data mining tools to come up with novel ways to develop and discover therapeutics.”
Solomon predicts immune profiling will enable preventative healthcare within 15 years
“The vision that I have and the hope that I have is that maybe in 15 years, We'll be able to use our new profile and capabilities to help people remain healthy.”
Elkabetz: Tomorrow.io satellites will create a binary improvement in global weather monitoring
“In most of the world, it's going to create a binary improvement. What do I mean by that? You go south of the border to Mexico, believe it or not, it's pretty challenging to understand what's happening in real time. If it's raining or not, in Mexico City is an …”
Lore: Consumers will refuse to accept soggy delivery fries within ten years
“I don't think. 10 years from now, people are going to still be satisfied with soggy fries.”
Lore: Rolling Wonder out across the US will take 10 to 15 years
“It's going to take probably, you know, 10 to 15 years to roll it out across the country. It's not something you do in just a couple years.”
Scaringe: Auto industry change over next 20 years will exceed horse-to-car shift
“The change is going to be larger over the next two decades than what we saw in the first two decades of the auto industry, you know, the sort of the shift from a horse to a car, as we now think about going from a combustion powered non-connected vehicle, which…”
Veksler: Inclusive fashion brands will master the model within 5 to 10 years
“I do believe that in five years or 10 years from now, these brands that are venturing into inclusivity and trying this, they will get it right, because fashion is only moving in this direction, and inclusivity is the future of fashion, so those brands who I th…”
Araque: The Global Energy Transition Will Happen in Our Generation
“You know, the energy transition will happen in our generation. It has to happen”
Drilling a 20-kilometer deep geothermal well will cost just $20 million
“Twenty million dollars. Just twenty million dollars. Okay. Twenty million dollars. Twenty million dollars per well if it's 20 kilometers.”
Clifford: Roam can reach $50M to $100M in revenue
“So where can Rome go? Like a fifty million dollar, hundred million dollar brand, absolutely, no question about it.”
Baird: Decarbonizing America's 125M buildings will cost $5 trillion
“Greening buildings in America is going to cost like Five trillion dollars. There's a hundred and twenty-five million buildings in America.”
Baird: Investing $5T to green buildings will yield $700B in returns
“Someone's gonna make, like.7 trillion dollars by investing five trillion dollars. So someone's gonna make, like, huge fortunes, right?”
Wurzbacher: Direct air capture will scale and drop in cost like solar
“And that's the same, what has had to happen in our industry, and I'm sure that will happen over the next
two decades to come.”
Pichai predicts tech industry will retain permanent workplace flexibility
“I think the future of work will definitely be way more flexible than what it's been in the past. And I think that's here to stay. And 10 years out from now, you will definitely see employees having a lot more flexibility.”
Kolbeck: Current global meat and seafood consumption rates are unsustainable
“It was clear that at some point, eating meat and seafood at the rate we are is not going to work anymore, right? For all the reasons you mentioned, there's environmental reasons, there's sort of humane reasons. There's economic reasons.”
Kolbeck: Nutritious wild seafood will become increasingly inaccessible to most
“Strongly rising demand with pinched supply means some of our healthiest, most nutritious seafoods are only going to become further and further out of reach of many people.”
Kolbeck: Ocean biodiversity will vanish by 2050 without drastic intervention
“If we don't seriously turn things around by the middle part of the century, we can just say goodbye to the biodiversity that exists in our oceans today.”
Liedtke: Adidas may eliminate virgin polyester ahead of 2024 target
“From what I hear and what I read from what Adidas is still doing is they're honoring that, that target, and they may even exceed that and hit, hit it in an earlier timeframe.”
Warhurst predicts Red Rover will steal more market share from U-Haul
“I think we're going to grab more customer share from U-Haul than we will pods, but we will certainly get the portable storage customer as well.”
Chaudry: Creator Economy Will Prioritize Deep Connection Over Broad Audiences
“I think the future or the present right now is growing a depth of connection with an audience rather than growing wider audiences, growing deeper. And I think that's something we're going to see a lot of as we move forward in the creator space.”
Vaynerchuk expects to buy the New York Jets in 25 years
“I know how I'm going about doing it, which makes me feel that I'm gonna get it done in 25 to 27 years.”
Reem Hassani predicted the artisanal coffee movement would also happen to tea.
“We kept pitching the idea that what's happening to coffee is going to happen to tea. So that The connoisseurship and kind of the gourmetship of, if that's a word, of coffee is going to happen to tea. So we're just going to ride that wave.”
Ku predicts ghost kitchens will capture larger restaurant industry market share
“I think ghost kitchens were already part of the industry before this happened, and I think will be a bigger part of the industry.”
Troy Carter in 2020: Live music touring won't normalize until 2022
“On the touring side, it's catastrophic, and the reality is we probably won't see this look normal until twenty-twenty-two, in my opinion.”
Kamali: Consumers will continue wearing sweatpants despite post-pandemic claims
“Everybody's saying they're going to Never wear sweats again. Sorry, I don't believe you. I know you're gonna wear sweats again.”
Loren Poncia: Affordable grass-fed meat will be common in 20 years
“I think in 20 years it's gonna be very common that you see grass-fed, organic meat on the grocery store shelves that's, you know, a lot more affordable.”
Newman: It makes me sad that Magic Hat probably won't survive much longer
“I was watching Magic Hat, you know, tank, and, you know, it's continuing to tank, and it's probably not going to make it much longer, and it made me really sad to realize that that's not living in my legacy.”
Joel Clark projected Kodiak Cakes would surpass $200 million in 2020 revenue
“Yeah, we should go over that this year.”
Gil: Online language immersion is permanently here to stay post-pandemic
“First of all, the online immersion is here to stay. I have no doubt. It's something that also had been in their minds, but if there's one thing this pandemic has accelerated and it has opened the doors toward is online education. I think people are definitely …”
Radenbaugh: Pandemic-driven surge in e-bike adoption will not fade for years
“But this is a switch that was, is flipped on and it's not turning off for years to come.”
Sandra Oh Lin: Some families will permanently shift to homeschooling post-pandemic
“I imagine to a certain extent that some people will actually choose to continue to homeschool their children, so there actually may be a shift there.”
Samantha Bee Predicts TV Networks Will Shift to Cheaper Reality Programming
“They've lost so much ad revenue. They're probably going to try and start making shows more cheaply, and that doesn't necessarily mean that they will be great. There'll be a lot of reality in our lives for the next little while.”
Woolley-Wilson: Edtech will see sustained post-pandemic growth as a must-have
“We really feel like education technology is a V-shape, and we're seeing that now. We've had explosive growth in users, as I mentioned, and we expect that that is going to continue for the future, because we feel like people who were trying out learning technol…”
Carter predicted in 2020 that live touring wouldn't normalize until 2022
“On the touring side, it's catastrophic, and the reality is we probably won't see this look normal until twenty-twenty-two, in my opinion.”
Raz: By 2025, many interviewed founders will have launched during lockdown
“I think in five years time, I'm going to be doing tons of interviews with people who came up with their ideas during this period.”
Davis Smith: Cotopaxi can become a billion-dollar business
“I believe we can go build a billion dollar business.”
Neeleman: US airline executive expects carrier to shrink by up to 50%
“I was talking to one, you know, airline executive in the US, and they said, you know, we're probably going to be 25% smaller If we come back in a few months, but if this goes for a year, we could be 50% smaller or more.”
Tynan: Framebridge can become big and forecastable enough to IPO
“Do I think we can be a big enough company to go public? Absolutely. And I think we can be a fundamentally good enough company to and an understandable enough and a forecastable enough business to go public. Yeah, I believe that.”
Gaines: Pressed Roots will make $1.6M in blowouts if pop-up numbers continue
“If we stay doing the numbers that we're doing on these pop-ups, we'll be making 1.6 million in blowouts alone.”
Zimmer: Lyft will likely offer monthly subscription miles plans for all transportation
“In fact, what you'll be able to do is buy, you know, likely a miles plan from us, a monthly subscription to handle all your transportation needs.”
Jimmy Wales predicts Wikipedia will be remembered in 500 years, not him
“So, at least in that regard, I do think that no one will remember me in 500 years, but they'll definitely remember Wikipedia.”
Susan Tynan predicts Framebridge will be big and forecastable enough to IPO
“Do I think we can be a big enough company to go public? Absolutely. And I think we can be a fundamentally good enough company too, and an understandable enough and a forecastable enough business to go public. Yeah, I believe that.”
Hyman: Rent the Runway will become a multi-billion dollar company
“I was always confident that I would turn Rent the Runway into a consumer behavior that millions of people did, and that I would build a, you know, I still believe we're going to build a multi-billion dollar company.”
Moya-Jones Predicts aden + anais Will Scale to $300M in Revenue
“It might be good for the business to bring in somebody who has run a business of this size and has scaled from a hundred to 300, because I really believe that that's where this brand is going.”
Zimmer predicted Lyft would sell monthly subscriptions mixing human and autonomous rides
“In fact, what you'll be able to do is buy, you know, likely a miles plan from us, a monthly subscription to handle all your transportation needs. And over the next few years, some of those trips will be done by human drivers, and others will be done by autonom…”