The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 290 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Contradicted
Visram: Happy Family is the biggest brand in Target's baby section
“And I'm, like, very proud to tell you that Happy is the biggest store, biggest brand in Target and Baby.”
Shazi Visram Jul 4, 2022 ▶ 52:37 Happy Family Organics: Shazi Visram (2020)
Assertion Contradicted
PayPal lost tens of millions per quarter to fraud in mid-2000
“And so by mid June, I think I was starting to sort of become aware of the fact that we're probably losing tens of millions of dollars to these fraudulent activities per quarter.”
Max Levchin Jun 13, 2022 ▶ 1:00:37 PayPal: Max Levchin (Part 1 of 2)
Assertion Contradicted
Kolbeck: Humans ingest a credit card's worth of microplastics weekly
“The number that I can't get out of my head is five grams or the equivalent of a credit card worth of microplastics that Going to our bodies every week.”
Justin Kolbeck Jun 2, 2022 ▶ 19:58 HIBT Lab! Wildtype: Aryé Elfenbein and Justin Kolbeck
Assertion Contradicted
Hari: People Now Sleep 20% Less Than a Century Ago
“We sleep 20% less than we did a century ago.”
Johann Hari May 19, 2022 ▶ 10:45 HIBT Lab! Stolen Focus: Johann Hari
Assertion Contradicted
Liedtke: Every piece of plastic ever created still exists on Earth
“What I like to term is, plastic is a forever material, which means there's not a piece of plastic that's ever been created that's not still with us today in some shape or form.”
Eric Liedtke May 16, 2022 ▶ 5:34 HIBT Lab! UNLESS Collective: Eric Liedtke
Assertion Contradicted
Pre-pandemic surgical masks were mostly made by hand globally
“And I found that mostly masks were being made manually one at a time by hand at the time.”
Lloyd Armbrust Apr 28, 2022 ▶ 4:54 HIBT Lab! Armbrust American: Lloyd Armbrust
Assertion Contradicted
Harari: Preschool Is a Steady Toy Market Where Transformation Was Untapped
“It's an incredible demo for toys, very steady demo for toys and no one had ever done anything with that play pattern for that demographic.”
Ronnen Harary Dec 20, 2021 ▶ 55:05 Spin Master/PAW Patrol: Ronnen Harary
Assertion Contradicted
Nouri: Packaging from Single-Use Items Makes Up 45% of Landfill Waste
“And 45% of all landfill waste is from packaging, and that's usually from single-use things.”
Kat Nouri Nov 22, 2021 ▶ 38:13 Stasher and Modern Twist: Kat Nouri
Assertion Contradicted
Katz: Audible's first player cost $208 to manufacture and sold for $215
“But it cost us 208 dollars to make that little device, and we tried to sell it for 215 dollars.”
Don Katz Nov 1, 2021 ▶ 41:43 Audible: Don Katz
Assertion Contradicted
Giant Conductive Ring at South Pole Could Launch Objects Into Space
“In the end, one of the best ideas would be to go to the south magnetic pole and put a big ring of conductor material around the magnetic field there and put a huge current through it, and it would actually fly into space.”
Keith Alexander Aug 30, 2021 ▶ 9:13 Springfree Trampoline: Keith Alexander & Steve Holmes (2019)
Assertion Contradicted
Costco CEO Jim Sinegal Initially Refused to Sell Trampolines Over Safety
“The CEO of Costco was a man named Jim Senegal, and Jim said, I will not sell trampolines.”
Steve Holmes Aug 30, 2021 ▶ 30:48 Springfree Trampoline: Keith Alexander & Steve Holmes (2019)
Assertion Contradicted
Mailchimp Hit One Million Users Just One Year After Launching Freemium
“So you're talking about having, you know, a few 100,000 customers at the time after six years of business. And then within one year of launching freemium, we ballooned to a million users and it just kept growing exponentially after that.”
Ben Chestnut Jul 12, 2021 ▶ 44:12 Mailchimp: Ben Chestnut
Assertion Contradicted
Hint was the first preservative-free commercial beverage using real ingredients
“And so we were the first beverage using real stuff to actually produce a product that didn't have preservatives in it as well.”
Kara Goldin Apr 1, 2021 ▶ 7:44 How I Built Resilience: Kara Goldin of Hint
Assertion Contradicted
A class-action lawsuit was filed one hour after Kenneth Cole announced privatization
“When we announced that we were going to do this, we announced it at nine o'clock when the New York Stock Exchange opened, we put out an announcement. We had a class action suit filed and on our desk By 10 o'clock, an hour later.”
Kenneth Cole Nov 16, 2020 ▶ 58:04 Kenneth Cole: Kenneth Cole
Assertion Contradicted
Lowry: Green products represent only about 5% of US sales
“They're only about five percent of products in the U S market that are sold are green products.”
Adam Lowry Oct 12, 2020 ▶ 40:12 method: Adam Lowry & Eric Ryan (2018)
Assertion Contradicted
In 2005, every US chemical sunscreen relied on oxybenzone
“What I also found is that every single chemical formula in the country relied on oxybenzone for its efficacy.”
Holly Thaggard Jun 8, 2020 ▶ 20:52 Supergoop!: Holly Thaggard
Assertion Contradicted
Hyman: 50% of women leave the workforce after having children
“One of the biggest challenges for women has been that 50% of women leave the workforce after they have kids”
Jenn Hyman Jun 4, 2020 ▶ 21:32 How I Built Resilience: Live with Jenn Hyman
Assertion Contradicted
Poneman: Sub Pop pioneered direct COD retail sales for US indie labels
“And at the time, independent record labels weren't doing this in the United States. We all figured that we needed to have a relationship with a distributor to get our records into the stores. But Bruce and I picked up the phone, and we decided to start selling…”
Jonathan Poneman Jun 1, 2020 ▶ 33:28 Sub Pop Records: Bruce Pavitt and Jonathan Poneman
Assertion Contradicted
LaFleur: Corporate women's workwear is a $100B to $120B market
“You know, there are thirty million women, age 25 to 45, who work in some sort of corporate environment, and these women spend on average, for women making 75 K and up, 4000 dollars a year on clothes to wear to work, and so that's roughly a hundred to a hundred…”
Sarah LaFleur Feb 3, 2020 ▶ 49:30 M.M.LaFleur: Sarah LaFleur
Assertion Contradicted
Visram: Happy Baby launched the first-ever probiotic baby food
“We launched the first ever baby food in the world that had probiotics”
Shazi Visram Jan 20, 2020 ▶ 46:55 Happy Family Organics: Shazi Visram
Assertion Contradicted
Carpenter: Burton Doubled Snowboard Sales Annually for First 20 Years
“We've doubled the number of snowboards sold for the first 20 years, I think, of the company”
Jake Burton Carpenter Nov 21, 2019 ▶ 23:15 Remembering Jake Burton Carpenter
Assertion Contradicted
Walker: Consumers of color outspend all demographics in health and beauty
“Folks of color spend more money in every single health and beauty category than anyone else.”
Tristan Walker Sep 30, 2019 ▶ 31:19 Live Episode! Walker & Company: Tristan Walker
Assertion Contradicted
Murrell: Five Guys sold 3,500 U.S. franchises within two years
“And I think within a year and a half, or two years, we sold 3500. We sold the whole United States.”
Jerry Murrell Jan 14, 2019 ▶ 23:12 Five Guys: Jerry Murrell (2019)
Assertion Contradicted
Hyman: 80% of closet items are worn under three times
“And 80% of that stuff is worn three times or less and ends up in a landfill.”
Jenn Hyman Nov 15, 2018 ▶ 13:45 Rent The Runway's Jenn Hyman At The HIBT Summit
Assertion Contradicted
Lerner: Stanford refused to license early router technology
“But Stanford said, no, you cannot license this technology. They would not entertain any licensing. We had done our part, and we had taken the government's money. This is all public domain. We'd invented all of these wonderful things, but the Office of Technolo…”
Sandy Lerner Oct 1, 2018 ▶ 18:22 Cisco Systems & Urban Decay: Sandy Lerner
Assertion Contradicted
Slack sold $1M in software within three weeks of its official launch
“Within maybe two weeks or three weeks of launching that officially, we had sold a million bucks worth of slack.”
Stewart Butterfield Jul 30, 2018 ▶ 46:20 Slack & Flickr: Stewart Butterfield
Assertion Contradicted
Goldman: Most US Bottled Tea Is Made From Powder or Concentrate
“Most of the bottle tea in the U.S. At the time, and still today, Is not brewed with, you know, it's not brewed tea. It's a powder or a concentrate.”
Seth Goldman Jun 11, 2018 ▶ 11:56 Honest Tea: Seth Goldman (2017)
Assertion Contradicted
Naficy: Literally no one was selling cosmetics online in 1998
“Nobody was selling cosmetics online. Nobody. Can you believe? Literally no one.”
Mariam Naficy Jun 4, 2018 ▶ 13:56 Minted: Mariam Naficy
Assertion Contradicted
Shaich: VCs controlled 3 of 5 board votes during Au Bon Pain divestment fight
“It was a huge boardroom struggle, because I had two votes, our venture capitalists had three, and all of them had invested in Au Bon Pain.”
Ron Shaich Apr 30, 2018 ▶ 27:26 Panera Bread/Au Bon Pain: Ron Shaich
Assertion Contradicted
The 1975 toy industry refused to sell products priced above $35
“What we didn't know Is that the toy business at that point in time did not sell anything that was more than 35 dollars.”
Nolan Bushnell Mar 26, 2018 ▶ 18:35 Atari & Chuck E. Cheese's: Nolan Bushnell (2017)
Assertion Contradicted
Gilboa: No company offered a home try-on program before Warby Parker
“And that's when kind of this light bulb went off for the home try-on program, which really no, no company was offering until that time”
Dave Gilboa Feb 19, 2018 ▶ 9:12 Warby Parker: Dave Gilboa & Neil Blumenthal (2016)
Assertion Contradicted
Ross Bagdasarian Sr. was the first songwriter to own masters and publishing
“He was the first songwriter who not only owned the publishing but also The master recordings.”
Ross Bagdasarian Jr. Sep 18, 2017 ▶ 27:21 The Chipmunks: Ross Bagdasarian Jr. & Janice Karman
Assertion Contradicted
Koch: Two global brewing conglomerates control 90% of the US beer market
“90% of the U.S. Beer market is in the hands of two big global brewing conglomerates.”
Jim Koch Jul 24, 2017 ▶ 28:35 Samuel Adams: Jim Koch (2017)
Assertion Contradicted
Five Guys sold 3,500 U.S. franchise locations within two years
“And I think within a year and a half, or two years, we sold 3500. We sold the whole United States.”
Jerry Murrell Jun 5, 2017 ▶ 22:16 Five Guys: Jerry Murrell
Assertion Contradicted
Mycoskie: TOMS reached $450M in annual sales within seven years
“We went from basically from zero to four hundred and fifty million dollars in sales on an annual basis in, like, seven years.”
Blake Mycoskie May 29, 2017 ▶ 40:15 TOMS: Blake Mycoskie
Assertion Contradicted
IBM's 1987 PS/2 computer launched without running any existing PC software
“Because this thing not only didn't run all the software, it didn't run any of the software.”
Rod Canion May 22, 2017 ▶ 22:05 Compaq Computers: Rod Canion
Assertion Contradicted
In the 1970s, women dominated NYC real estate but men owned everything
“The whole business was 90% female. It wasn't like women were not in the real estate brokerage field. But it just happened that all the firms were owned by the men.”
Barbara Corcoran Apr 24, 2017 ▶ 27:09 Real Estate Mogul: Barbara Corcoran
Assertion Contradicted
Virgin started as the first mail-order business to discount music records
“Nobody had ever sold music at a cheaper price than the normal retail price and it was the start of Virgin.”
Richard Branson Jan 30, 2017 ▶ 5:19 Virgin: Richard Branson
Assertion Contradicted
Webb says Drybar faced zero direct competition when it launched
“No, there was no competition. There were hair salons.”
Alli Webb Jan 9, 2017 ▶ 14:36 Drybar: Alli Webb
Assertion Contradicted
Gilboa: No company offered home try-on before Warby Parker
“And that's when kind of this light bulb went off for the home try-on program, which really no, no company was offering until that time”
Dave Gilboa Dec 26, 2016 ▶ 8:44 Warby Parker: Dave Gilboa & Neil Blumenthal
Assertion Contradicted
Cuban: $285M Mavericks purchase was the highest price ever paid then
“When I bought the Mavs, everybody like, are you an idiot? It was the highest price ever paid for a sports team. Two hundred eighty-five million dollars, and everybody thought I was a moron.”
Mark Cuban Dec 5, 2016 ▶ 22:14 Serial Entrepreneur: Mark Cuban
Assertion Contradicted
Koch: Two global conglomerates control 90% of the US beer market
“90% of the U.S. Beer market is in the hands of two big global brewing conglomerates.”
Jim Koch Oct 31, 2016 ▶ 28:06 Samuel Adams: Jim Koch
Assertion Contradicted
Blakely: No female patent attorneys existed in Georgia when Spanx launched
“I couldn't find a single female patent attorney in the state of Georgia, and I even called the Georgia Chamber of Commerce, and they said there isn't one.”
Sara Blakely Sep 12, 2016 ▶ 10:00 Spanx: Sara Blakely
Assertion Contradicted
Dawes: Cape Cod factory was Cape's second-biggest tourist attraction
“I mean, the only thing that was practical about it, maybe, was that we had a factory tour, and at the time, you know, when we reopened it and redid the factory tour, I mean, we were the second largest tourist attraction on the Cape after the National Seashore.”
Nicole Bernard Dawes Aug 31, 2026 ▶ 12:56 Late July Snacks: Nicole Bernard Dawes. Crackers and Cookies were Failing… Tortilla Chips Saved Them
Assertion Contradicted
Food distributor UNFI required brands to service 30 to 40 regional stores
“In order for us to get enough economies of scale to deliver to enough stores, you need to be in at least 30 or 40 stores, which is usually the whole region.”
Justin Gold May 25, 2026 ▶ 43:29 Justin’s Nut Butter: Justin Gold. He Was Waiting Tables, Then...He Reinvented Peanut Butter.
Assertion Contradicted
Murray: Vineyard Vines guerrilla stunt aired on every major network evening broadcast
“And that night, that little clip was on every major news network on the Six 30 News nationwide.”
Ian Murray Apr 27, 2026 ▶ 32:07 Shep and Ian Murray: Vineyard Vines. A Stale Product Transforms into a Lifestyle Brand.
Assertion Contradicted
Shep Murray: Vineyard Vines reached $100M in sales by 2008
“Oh, we were a hundred million.”
Shep Murray Apr 27, 2026 ▶ 56:09 Shep and Ian Murray: Vineyard Vines. A Stale Product Transforms into a Lifestyle Brand.
Assertion Contradicted
KIND doubled its business every year for ten consecutive years
“Like, we doubled for 10 years in a row”
Daniel Lubetzky Apr 20, 2026 ▶ 42:25 KIND bars: Daniel Lubetzky. From peace in the Middle East to a $5 billion snack bar
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