The Ledger

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why aren't all 1,222 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Supported
Make Sunsets launched geoengineering balloons in Nevada after Mexican government pushback
“Their first experimental launch in the Mexican state of Baja resulted in a swift regulatory response from the Mexican government, but undeterred, they were ready to run another test, and a few weeks ago, they launched some more balloons just outside of Reno, N…”
Stephen Lacey Mar 15, 2023 ▶ 1:24 A rogue geoengineering startup sparks worry
Assertion Supported
Make Sunsets Sells $10 Stratospheric Sulfur Dioxide Cooling Credits
“So for 10 dollars, you can buy a promise from Make Sunsets that they're going to inject one gram of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere. And also that one gram of sulfur dioxide, they say, will offset the emissions of one ton of carbon dioxide for a period of…”
Alejandro de la Garza Mar 15, 2023 ▶ 9:54 A rogue geoengineering startup sparks worry
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Shah: Li-Cycle Rochester plant will produce 8,500 tons of lithium carbonate
“Life cycle in Rochester, New York will produce 8500 tons of lithium carbonate once it's fully scaled up. To put that in perspective, the United States as a whole produces 5000 tons per year. It'll be the single, single largest producer of lithium carbonate in …”
Jigar Shah Mar 8, 2023 ▶ 31:04 Are oil & gas majors abandoning clean energy?
Assertion Supported
Top Oil Majors Made Nearly $200 Billion in 2022 Profits
“Combined, the top oil majors brought in nearly two hundred billion dollars in profits last year.”
Stephen Lacey Mar 8, 2023 ▶ 2:41 Are oil & gas majors abandoning clean energy?
Assertion Supported
Shah: US adds two gigawatts of app-controllable devices each month
“But what's different today is that we are now adding two gigawatts a month of devices into our homes and small businesses that are, can be controlled by an app on your phone.”
Jigar Shah Mar 8, 2023 ▶ 38:29 Are oil & gas majors abandoning clean energy?
Assertion Supported
Boyle: Over 99% of US Coal Plants Cost More Than New Renewables
“99, or over 99% of coal-fired power plants are more expensive on a going-forward cost, basically, than new renewables.”
Michael Boyle Feb 22, 2023 ▶ 2:05 Stunning new data on coal vs renewables
Assertion Supported
Boyle: Coal Replacement Savings Can Fund 137 GW of Battery Storage
“There's enough savings in this equation to pay for a 137 gigawatts, which is about 60% of the nameplate coal fleet capacity.”
Michael Boyle Feb 22, 2023 ▶ 7:39 Stunning new data on coal vs renewables
Assertion Supported
Grid operators blocked Ameren from retiring its Rush Island coal plant
“Now contrast that with the Rush Island plant in the Ameren service territory. So that power plant Ameren decided they wanted to retire it in September of last year, partially due to the expense of adding Pollution controls to comply with EPA regulations, and t…”
Michael Boyle Feb 22, 2023 ▶ 11:54 Stunning new data on coal vs renewables
Assertion Supported
Boyle: Clean Energy O&M Jobs Fall Far Short of Coal Plant Jobs
“The renewable projects, they bring a lot of short-term employment opportunities associated with construction, but the long-term operation and maintenance jobs that come with new clean energy projects don't really come close to the amount of jobs that are suppo…”
Michael Boyle Feb 22, 2023 ▶ 18:01 Stunning new data on coal vs renewables
Assertion Supported
Seals: Over 57 studies since the 1970s link gas cooking to child health issues
“There's actually over 57 studies going back to the seventies, so 50 years. There's been two meta-analyses on gas cooking in childhood health. One in 1992, and another one in 2013.”
Brady Seals Feb 15, 2023 ▶ 2:36 A surprising history of gas stove pollution
Assertion Supported
Gas industry paid influencers to promote gas stoves over electric alternatives
“The gas industry has paid experts to testify at regulatory hearings, paid influencers to promote the use of gas stoves over electric ones, Even made corny music videos hammering the message home.”
Stephen Lacey Feb 15, 2023 ▶ 3:54 A surprising history of gas stove pollution
Assertion Supported
Seals: 2013 meta-analysis linked gas stoves to 42% higher child asthma risk
“And so the last meta-analysis we have from 2013, they looked at the 41 studies that came before, and they said, based on all these results, we conclude that children living in a home with a gas stove have a 42% increased risk of having asthma.”
Brady Seals Feb 15, 2023 ▶ 6:54 A surprising history of gas stove pollution
Assertion Supported
Seals: Gas flames generate twice the particulate matter during cooking
“We've seen from studies that gas flames themselves produce Two times the amount of particulate matter, and these are harmful because they can penetrate deep into the lungs.”
Brady Seals Feb 15, 2023 ▶ 10:04 A surprising history of gas stove pollution
Assertion Supported
Seals: Any CPSC gas stove regulations would apply only to new stoves
“Anything that would happen from the CPSC would relate to new stoves, new regulations, new protections on new stoves.”
Brady Seals Feb 15, 2023 ▶ 21:27 A surprising history of gas stove pollution
Assertion Supported
ICCT: Waste oil and animal fats meet just 2% of SAF needs
“One estimate by the International Council on Clean Transportation is about two percent. About, if we used all of the used cooking oil and animal fats, that could account for about two percent of sustainable aviation fuel.”
Maria Gallucci Feb 1, 2023 ▶ 10:12 The greasy truth behind sustainable aviation fuels
Assertion Supported
Niedermeyer: Existing autonomous tech cannot handle general-purpose driving
“The technology that exists today is not up to the task of automating general purpose driving like we do with cars. We can't automate the way we drive cars because it is a multiplicity of tasks. It's in a multiplicity of domains. Like it's just way too much.”
Ed Niedermeyer Jan 25, 2023 ▶ 11:24 The autonomous car bubble has popped
Assertion Supported
Lacey: Gas stoves directly contribute to 12% of childhood asthma cases
“He made the comments to Bloomberg in response to new peer-reviewed research, which builds on many studies from the last few years, showing that gas stoves are terrible for your health, and they directly contribute to 12% of childhood asthma cases.”
Stephen Lacey Jan 19, 2023 ▶ 0:47 The make-or-break moment for America’s energy transition
Assertion Supported
Hamilton: DOE requires 20% of federal grants address community and workforce
“And in fact, the Department of Energy, in every single grant that they're doing, even with the infrastructure bill, is requiring 20% of every grant to be, how are you involving the community? How are you dealing with the workforce?”
Katherine Hamilton Jan 19, 2023 ▶ 4:40 The make-or-break moment for America’s energy transition
Assertion Supported
Up to 70% of US Homes Need Electrical Panel Upgrades
“There's this nonprofit, Rewiring America, and they estimate that something like 60 to 70% of homes in the U.S. Are going to need to upgrade their electrical panels in order to accommodate solar or new electric appliances.”
Emily Pontecorvo Jan 11, 2023 ▶ 2:28 The great electrician shortage
Assertion Partly supported
Brose: Global carbon removal capacity is only 3 million tons per year
“Worldwide, we think the carbon removal market, carbon removal capacity per year is about three million tons. So we're off by 10,000 X.”
Raphael Brose Dec 6, 2022 ▶ 12:34 A breakout year for carbon removal?
Assertion Supported
Brose: Microsoft carbon removal project burned in Bootleg Fire
“And one of the projects that we purchased from in 2020 burned in the bootleg fire, and so that risk went from a theoretical number on a page, you know, two percent risk of reversal over the project lifetime to, well, it happened, and was that reversal risk the…”
Raphael Brose Dec 6, 2022 ▶ 7:15 A breakout year for carbon removal?
Assertion Supported
Friedman: Study found half of Indian wind offset projects were non-additional
“There was a study done recently in India. They found half of the wind projects that were built there were not additional at all. That means half of them were just nothing. The other half were credible avoided emissions.”
Julio Friedman Dec 6, 2022 ▶ 19:07 A breakout year for carbon removal?
Assertion Supported
Friedman: Direct air capture costs roughly $600 per ton
“Direct air capture, say, is on the order of 600 dollars a ton. A good biochar project might be on the order of 150 dollars a ton. A good biomass with carbon capture project might be between 153 hundred dollars a ton.”
Julio Friedman Dec 6, 2022 ▶ 24:13 A breakout year for carbon removal?
Assertion Supported
Ike Dike is a $31 billion project taking 18 years to build
“As it stands right now, it's a thirty-one billion dollar project that's going to take at least 18 years to build.”
Alexandria Herr Nov 9, 2022 ▶ 6:54 The Ike Dike: the biggest civil engineering project in US history
Assertion Supported
24-foot surge would flood 2,200 Houston hazardous material storage tanks
“There's about, oh, I think, around 4500 storage tanks that are filled with oil and hazardous material. And about 2200 of them would be flooded with a 24 foot surge.”
Dr. Jim Blackburn Nov 9, 2022 ▶ 12:48 The Ike Dike: the biggest civil engineering project in US history
Assertion Supported
Houston storm surge could instantly release half a Deepwater Horizon spill
“The Deepwater Horizon was about two hundred and ten million gallons of oil. This would be about a hundred million gallons of oil and hazardous substances, so it's about half the size of the Deepwater Horizon, but that would all happen at one time.”
Dr. Jim Blackburn Nov 9, 2022 ▶ 14:23 The Ike Dike: the biggest civil engineering project in US history
Assertion Supported
French: New York's first offshore wind projects face 1-2 year delays
“These projects, you know, when they were first announced, the first two that have state contracts, when they were announced in twenty-nineteen by Governor Andrew Cuomo, you know, they were supposed to be online, I think twenty-twenty-four, May twenty-twenty-fo…”
Marie French Nov 2, 2022 ▶ 7:55 New York’s clean energy puzzle
Assertion Supported
French: New York's renewable siting office still staffing up after two years
“OREZ, the Office of Renewable Energy Siting, which is the new state office that was set up to do permitting and speed it up, essentially, for renewable developers, is still staffing up. And it's been two years. So, you know, we're still waiting.”
Marie French Nov 2, 2022 ▶ 9:25 New York’s clean energy puzzle
Assertion Supported
Maldonado: Local Law 97 compliance starts in 2024 despite unfinalized rules
“And these laws, I mean, they have to start complying by twenty-twenty-four, but the rules for, like, what guides the laws and how they would even calculate their emissions and their penalties are, just haven't, haven't been finalized yet, and so we're still wa…”
Samantha Maldonado Nov 2, 2022 ▶ 28:50 New York’s clean energy puzzle
Assertion Supported
Governor Rick Scott abolished Florida's growth management agency
“Rick Scott, when he was governor, one of the first things he did was get rid of Florida's growth management agency, and since then, it's been all growth and no management.”
Michael Grunwald Oct 24, 2022 ▶ 8:36 The ‘ecological ponzi scheme’ putting Florida at risk
Prediction Held up
Florida will ask Washington to pay for disaster recovery, and likely succeed
“And now, of course, we see the consequences, and the consequences will be Florida's gonna put its hand out and ask Washington, D.C. To pay for all this, and probably they will.”
Michael Grunwald Oct 24, 2022 ▶ 9:31 The ‘ecological ponzi scheme’ putting Florida at risk
Assertion Supported
Gallucci: Disaster Funds Are Primarily Rebuilding Puerto Rico's Vulnerable Centralized Grid
“These funds, these efforts, are largely being used to rebuild the existing grid. Sort of this centralized system with far-flung power plants and long transmission and distribution lines that, as we've seen again and again, are vulnerable to extreme weather eve…”
Maria Gallucci Sep 29, 2022 ▶ 9:30 Puerto Rico’s preventable grid disaster
Assertion Contradicted
Haspel: Annual household gas stove emissions equal driving 42 miles
“If you look at the amount of greenhouse gases from your stove, and you compare it to driving your car, your yearly stove use is going to be about the equivalent of driving 42 miles in an average car.”
Tamar Haspel Sep 15, 2022 ▶ 18:06 Should we eat bugs, farmed fish, or soy?
Assertion Supported
Grunwald: UC Davis trials showed seaweed additive cuts steer methane by 80%
“When I was out there, they were finding 80% less methane emissions from these particular steers that did have a little bit of seaweed in the diet.”
Michael Grunwald Sep 15, 2022 ▶ 13:07 Should we eat bugs, farmed fish, or soy?
Prediction Held up
Grunwald: Ocean wild fish catches cannot expand beyond current levels
“There's no way we're gonna get more fish from the ocean than we're getting now. You know, at best, we can sustain it.”
Michael Grunwald Sep 15, 2022 ▶ 22:51 Should we eat bugs, farmed fish, or soy?
Assertion Supported
Haspel: Grazing utilizes land largely unsuitable for other purposes
“And the thing about grazing is that it actually, it does make use of land that is not so great for other things.”
Tamar Haspel Sep 15, 2022 ▶ 30:09 Should we eat bugs, farmed fish, or soy?
Assertion Supported
Grunwald: No-till farming leads to increased weeds and smaller crop yields
“When you do things like, you know, not tilling the soil you're gonna have more weeds and smaller yields, and we are obsessed with yields because we need to grow more food on less land.”
Michael Grunwald Sep 15, 2022 ▶ 42:06 Should we eat bugs, farmed fish, or soy?
Assertion Supported
Grunwald: Palm oil is the most efficient vegetable oil crop
“Palm oil, which everybody hates, is the most efficient vegetable oil.”
Michael Grunwald Sep 15, 2022 ▶ 46:35 Should we eat bugs, farmed fish, or soy?
Assertion Supported
Haspel: Hard evidence that vegetables prevent stroke is difficult to find
“Eating more vegetables is never going to be bad, but if you're looking for hard evidence that eating more vegetables is going to prevent stroke I think that you're gonna have a hard time finding that.”
Tamar Haspel Sep 15, 2022 ▶ 51:44 Should we eat bugs, farmed fish, or soy?
Assertion Supported
Klinenberg: Englewood Heat Mortality Rate Was 10x Higher Than Auburn-Gresham
“Englewood had a death rate that was 10 times higher than Auburn-Gresham, even though it's separated by just a street”
Eric Klinenberg Sep 7, 2022 ▶ 7:18 Why heat waves become deadly
Assertion Supported
Parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas have completely depleted their groundwater
“There's parts of Kansas that are, really, have completely, you know, lost all their water. Parts of Oklahoma, parts of Texas that just don't have that water source anymore.”
Melody Edwards Aug 24, 2022 ▶ 4:34 The frontline of water conflicts: ranching
Assertion Supported
Wyoming ranchers passed law shifting burden of proof onto well applicants
“They were successful in passing a bill to the applicant to prove that the, that these permits would not injure the neighbors and other water users.”
Melody Edwards Aug 24, 2022 ▶ 18:25 The frontline of water conflicts: ranching
Assertion Partly supported
Corbeau: EU green hydrogen goal requires 500 TWh of renewable electricity
“Ten million tons of Green hydrogen produced domestically. This is an additional 500 terawatt hours of the renewable capacity. That's about 70% of what we are producing right now in Europe.”
Anne-Sophie Corbeau Aug 3, 2022 ▶ 24:09 How bad will Europe's gas crisis get?
Assertion Partly supported
Corbeau: Half of Russian LNG exports went to Europe in 2022 H1
“It was about, you know, half of the Russian LNG exports have come to Europe over the first half of the year, so actually the only country which has stopped importing LNG from Russia has been the United Kingdom, but we still have a lot going to Italy, to the Ne…”
Anne-Sophie Corbeau Aug 3, 2022 ▶ 28:46 How bad will Europe's gas crisis get?
Assertion Supported
Corbeau: Multiple European countries are reviving coal power generation
“So right now we need to burn more coal, and this is why we have seen in many countries that coal is being brought back. I mean, in Germany, in Austria, in France, in the Netherlands, everywhere is being brought back because there is no other issue in the power…”
Anne-Sophie Corbeau Aug 3, 2022 ▶ 5:45 How bad will Europe's gas crisis get?
Assertion Supported
Corbeau: Europe must triple annual wind and solar additions to hit 2030 goals
“The target is To have more than 1200 gigawatts of renewable capacity by the end of 2030. So that means a very, very substantial increase in terms of the addition of wind and solar capacity every year. We need to, between now and 2030, to multiply the normal ad…”
Anne-Sophie Corbeau Aug 3, 2022 ▶ 22:23 How bad will Europe's gas crisis get?
Assertion Supported
Corbeau: 75% of Russian LNG exports go to unfriendly countries
“When you are considering where the Russian LNG exports are going right now, 75% is going to Unfriendly countries, whether this is European or Japan.”
Anne-Sophie Corbeau Aug 3, 2022 ▶ 29:02 How bad will Europe's gas crisis get?
Assertion Supported
Corbeau: Northwest European LNG import infrastructure is running at maximum capacity
“Right now, our LNG infrastructure in Europe, it's full. It's running at maximum capacity in Northwest Europe. It cannot come and absorb more LNG.”
Anne-Sophie Corbeau Aug 3, 2022 ▶ 31:03 How bad will Europe's gas crisis get?
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