The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 357 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
DeWahl: Brookfield Moving to Complete Abandoned V.C. Summer Nuclear Plant
“There's a huge, like, trillion asset, trillion dollar asset under management company called Brookfield Asset Management, and they they've actually just gotten in the game as well. In the last couple weeks, I'm sure there was, like, talk, right? Yeah, yeah. To …”
DeWahl: Microsoft and Constellation are restarting Three Mile Island
“That's being brought up back online, partnership between Microsoft and Constellation, I believe.”
Nadella: Copilot is Microsoft's fastest-adopted Office product in history
“I mean, you know, I always say, at least compared to anything we have done in terms of all the office suites over our history, this is the fastest.”
Nadella: Microsoft Copilot supports both OpenAI models and Anthropic's Claude
“On Copilot today, you use OpenAI models, you use even Claude, right? I need the system to work across both of those.”
Nadella: Powered shells and permits are the primary AI data center bottleneck
“Powered up shells, right? So if I don't have enough shells that are powered, that I can then roll in my racks and then make them operational. And that's the long lead part, right? Which is you kind of have to have the land permits, the power permits, get all t…”
Ricks: Developing a drug costs $4B, with over 60% spent in Phase 3
“The final stage of testing, the average drug costs three and a half, four billion to make more than 60% of that is the last step.”
Ricks: US cancer trial enrollment is 4% versus over 25% in Spain
“Only four percent of patients who have cancer in the US are in clinical trials, whereas in Spain and Australia, it's over 25%.”
Ricks: Lilly develops clinical drugs in under 7 years versus industry average
“Drug development time in the industry, It's about 10 years in the clinic, a little less right now. We're running a little less than seven at Lilly”
Ricks: Non-Lilly large pharma multiples are at a 20-year low
“If you look at the large cap farmers, not Lilly, but the other ones, the multiples, the most compressed it's been in 20 years. If you look at biotech, the XBI, I think half of the XBI is trading below cash. And then if you look at. Venture. Half of the rounds …”
Ricks: Drugs lose 97% of their pricing when patents expire
“Typically a generic event, you'll lose 97% of your pricing the day your patent expires.”
Ricks: Most major hospital systems have failed price transparency compliance
“Compliance is terrible. Most major hospital systems have not complied. Or if they have, they put on a website somewhere a coded database that is impossible to interpret with ICD-X codes and price points that consumers cannot digest.”
Ricks: China had Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine rights but never approved it
“They had rights to the BioNTech-Pfizer vaccine for almost the entirety of their pandemic. They never approved it.”
Ricks: Virtually no generic pharmaceuticals are manufactured in the US
“There are no generics manufactured in the U.S. Really.”
Ricks: Generic small-molecule medicines face no regulatory efficacy requirement
“There is no requirement For small molecule chemical medicine to show proof of efficacy of any kind. So you can do pretty simple laboratory experiments and absorption experiments in a small number of people.”
Ricks: Self-pay Zepbound is the #1 prescribed form of GLP-1s
“Actually, the number one prescribed form of these medications is Zep-bound self-buy. We sell more than that than our insured business, a new patient starts, and more than all of we go.”
Ricks: LillyDirect annualizes in billions as largest online prescription platform
“Today we'll annualize, you know, in the billions of dollars. I think it's the largest Prescription platform online in terms of revenue. We run it on Stripe, I think, and going north from here.”
Ricks: Eli Lilly captures 70-75% of new US GLP-1 starts
“Right now in the US, across all forms of GLP-ONE, on new patient capture, we're basically 70, 75% right now.”
Operating 737s is cheaper and faster than building high-speed rail
“How many seven three sevens could you build and operate for 30 years for that much money? And it turns out you could move more people more quickly that way than with the Hyperloop.”
If a region can grow food, it can synthesize its own fuel
“Everywhere pretty much that people live has enough sun that you can make, you know, can grow enough food to survive. And if you can grow enough food to survive, you can synthesize enough fuel to run your modern industrial economy.”
China deployed more solar in three months than the US has historically
“China has deployed more solar in, like, the last three months than the United States has ever deployed ever.”
Cheap energy lets China outproduce the US in metals by up to 100x
“We're already in a situation right now where China is outproducing the United States on all the metals, like steel, aluminum, magnesium, and so on and so forth, by, like, a factor of between 10 and a hundred, because they're, Energy is cheap”
Handmer: Permitting private-land solar is as difficult as permitting a chemical plant
“Right now to permit a solar array, even on private land for the sort of applications we want to use, it's often Just as tiresome and expensive and difficult as permitting a new chemical plant or, you know, something that's much dirtier.”
The average French pension now exceeds average working-age adult income
“I was insane stat in France recently that the average pension is now higher than, the pension is now higher than the average income for working age adults in France.”
D1 Capital never received margin calls during the January 2021 GameStop squeeze
“We never came close to going into business, never had margin calls, never.”
Sundheim: D1's 2020 short portfolio ultimately underperformed massively
“Now, if I had held that short portfolio, forget like from the top, if I just held from the end of 2020, I mean, they underperformed massively.”
Scaringe: Rivian reached positive gross margin in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025
“And so finally end of 24, beginning of 25, we started to hit positive gross margin. So, Q-four of 24, Q-one of 25, positive gross margin.”
Scaringe: Rivian captures 35% US market share in premium electric SUVs
“If you draw the boundary diagram around electric premium vehicles, so like premium SUVs that are over 70,000 dollars, we're by far the best-selling vehicle in that class of vehicles, so we have about 35% market share as we draw that boundary diagram”
Scaringe: LiDAR sensor costs dropped from $75,000 to $200
“Six, seven years ago a LiDAR was 20,000 dollars. 15 years ago LiDAR was 75,000 dollars. Today a LiDAR is like 200 bucks. So it's a very low cost sensor.”
Scaringe: Only Rivian and Tesla sell cars without dealership middle layers
“With the exception of us and Tesla, every manufacturer today sells through distributors, and distributors then on to dealers, or in a few cases, direct to dealers. But nonetheless, there's a middle layer.”
Scaringe: Lifetime vehicle service revenue generates 2.0x to 2.5x initial price
“For every, every car that's sold, whatever its sale price is, the revenue over the life of the vehicle is generally around two to two and a half x the initial sale price. But that's over a 15 year time.”
Lütke: Shop Pay delivers a 16% conversion rate increase for merchants
“It's a 16% conversion increase by it being robbed, right?”
Lütke: Ontario has the cleanest power grid in the world
“Like if it's like where I live in Ontario, it's like the grid is entirely clean. It's like the Bruce nuclear power plant, which are constantly built more reactors for, which is like, Every time under budget and before schedule, like six, seven gigawatts now, a…”
Andreessen: Silicon Valley's true roots originated with 1920s defense tech
“The typical Silicon Valley history goes back to like the 19 fifties with HP and the 19 sixties with the chip companies. But the real history, I, he, I think he makes a very compelling case. The real history was actually defense tech startups in the, like, 19 t…”
Andreessen: The 1999 Total Internet Market Was at Most 50 Million People
“The total market size in like, 1999 for internet anything was like fifty million people total max maybe.”
Collison: Elon Musk's companies have historically been unusually capital-efficient
“Elon's companies have always been very capital efficient and like build a bad one and then build a good one. And so the boring company bought a commercial tunnel boring machine before they started developing their own. Tesla had the master plan where they buil…”
Andreessen: Employees of Musk and Jobs consistently report doing their best work
“The people who work for Elon and the people who work for Steve, they often report after the fact that they did the best work of their lives. And they often report that, you know, they could have had difficult, you know, Interactions along the way, or they coul…”
Collison: Stripe is shipping 30 percent more code thanks to AI tooling
“I think at Stripe we, ah, we're, we found we're shipping 30% more code.”
Wu: Devin is deployed at thousands of companies including Goldman and Citi
“Devon is deployed in thousands of companies all over the world. You know, we work with some of the biggest banks in the world, like Goldman and Citibank, all the way down to, you know, startups with two or three people.”
Wu: Devin merges 30% to 40% of pull requests in successful orgs
“Typically in a successful org, Devon is merging something in the range of, like, 30 to 40% of all the pull requests that come through.”
Wu: Latest Claude and GPT models outperform predecessors on internal benchmarks
“Yeah, I mean, both of them are, the two of them are better at this benchmark than any of the models that we've seen before this week.”
Wu: Cognition uses Devin to order DoorDash and Amazon packages
“Devon is obviously entirely focused towards software engineering, but like we order our DoorDash on Devon, you know, we order our Amazon packages with Devon, and it's like, there are pieces of that that turn out to work nicely anyway.”
Wu: Google hired Windsurf's core research team while other functions remained intact
“There was a core kind of, like, research and product engineering team that went to Google, and the, all of the other functions were entirely intact, which includes enterprise engineering, infra, deployed engineering go to market, marketing, finance operations,…”
Pieter Levels: ChatGPT referral traffic jumped from 4% to 20% of Google volume in a month
“ChatGPT a month ago was so if you have to Google traffic, that's like a hundred. ChatGPG was like four, so four percent, and now it's 20%.”
Snapchat+ has reached 25 million subscribers and a $1 billion run rate
“We just announced we had twenty-five million Snapchat plus subscribers, over a billion run rate on the direct revenue business.”
Xu: DoorDash struggled to raise capital relative to peers from 2016 to 2018
“In fact, you know, between 2016, 1718, we barely were able to raise a dollar, you know, relative to our peers.”
Xu: DoorDash spent 40% of cash on refunds in 2013
“This was a Stanford football game in 2013, and I had trouble raising the seed round. We made the decision to refund everyone that cost us over 40% of the bank account.”
Tony Xu: DoorDash tanked 80% then doubled in one week during early COVID
“COVID, you know, the first week actually the business, you know, tanked 80%. It tanked massively because everything was shut down. And then, you know, the next week, you know, Everything all of the dining rooms were closed, but the kitchens were open. And so, …”