The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 2,090 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 24 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Eliahu-Ontiveros: Utilities now demand multi-billion dollar commitments for gigawatts of power
“Utilities now are asking multi-billion dollar commitments for gigawatts gigawatts of power. Turbines and so on and so forth is the same thing. So yes, pretty massive disadvantage.”
Eliahu-Ontiveros: OpenAI and Oracle to deploy 2.3 GW of reciprocating engines
“They signed this gigantic deal with Oracle in Shackleford County, Texas, where they're going to deploy 2.3 gigawatts of four megawatt reciprocating engines.”
Eliahu-Ontiveros: Bloom fuel cells take two days to reach full capacity
“Because Blue Energy fuel cells, you know, they have to run extremely hot. And so if you want to use them as backup this basically takes two days, you know, to go from like zero to a hundred.”
Yedvab: Stardust particles match sulfate cooling effectiveness within tens of percent
“Our article, to be very, very straightforward, is not much better than sulfate with respect to the effectiveness and not much worse than sulfate.
So up to, I'd say,
A few tens of percents, which is not a, it's kind of similar.”
Lubershane: Grid equipment costs 2-3x more and takes 3-5 years to deliver
“Anything you want to order today is probably going to take three plus years in the case of gas turbines, probably more like five years to be able to get your hands on. Anything you order today, whether it's a turbine or a transformer or just the, you know, alu…”
Lubershane: 2025 EV power demand growth matched data center growth globally
“The IEA recently came out with some data recently on global electricity demand growth, and it turns out that last year in 2025 from about, from a global standpoint, there was almost exactly as much electricity demand growth around the world from electric vehic…”
Lubershane: A home humanoid robot will use 3-4x a refrigerator's annual power
“If you were to sort of extrapolate from the humanoids that are being built today and you were to run one for five or six hours a day doing various types of tasks around your home and your garden, sort of, you know, the theoretical robo-butler, that would consu…”
China has 15 to 20 million units of idle car manufacturing capacity
“So to put some numbers to it, this year, China has capacity to build about fifty five million cars. Their domestic demand is twenty five million. They'll export another ten million. That leaves 15 to twenty million in excess capacity idle, looking for new mark…”
Chinese EVs cost 30 to 40 percent less than Western competitors
“In terms of comparison to Europe and the United States, they're 30 to 40% less expensive.”
Volkswagen will close plants and lay off 50,000 workers by 2030
“Volkswagen's come out and said between now and 2030, they'll lay off 50,000 people. This is unprecedented. They're closing plants for the first time since World War II.”
Mexico is the single largest export destination for Chinese vehicles
“And for the last two years, Mexico's has been the single largest destination of Chinese exports.”
Fulgham: Solar scaled from 100 TWh to 2,000 TWh faster than any energy source
“How long does it take for sources to go from a hundred terawatt hours to a size like 2000 terawatt hours? And if you look historically, no source has ever made that jump as quickly as solar has. Right behind it is wind with just a few more years.”
Fulgham: Global fossil generation fell in 2025 for fifth time this century
“And that meant that for only the fifth time in this century, and for the first time since twenty-twenty, we actually saw a small fall in fossil generation, particularly a fall from coal generation, which was both in India and China we had those falls.”
Kann: China's fossil fuel electricity generation has stayed flat for years
“Fossil generation in China has been flat now for a couple of years. It's not just a one-year anomaly. It basically flattened off and has stayed that way.”
Fulgham: China mandates coal plants throttle down midday for solar
“China is actively reducing the lowest level that coal plants can run out. Now, this is not just a policy choice. It's also a technical requirement. So it means they want Coal plants to be able to throttle down in the middle of the day further than they had to …”
Fulgham: India's per-capita renewables generation is 5x China's 15-year-old baseline
“Wind and solar generation per capita India's has now is already five times higher than China's was 15 years ago, and obviously that's only going to continue to grow.”
Fulgham: 2025 battery additions can shift 14% of new solar output
“We also have 250 gigawatt hours of additional battery capacity. And you put those two together, and it means that 14% of all the solar generation, the additional solar generation we had globally, can be shifted to different parts of the day.”
Von Munch: Pacific Fusion CTO doubled pulsed-power system efficiency and density
“And our CTO inventing technology that more than doubles the efficiency and power density of systems like Z.”
Linville: North America is self-sufficient across major fertilizers except urea
“We are self-sufficient on potash. From a Canadian standpoint, they are the biggest producer and exporter in the world. We are mostly self-sufficient on phosphate as the spring season has shown. UAN and anhydrous, both nitrogen products, we produce almost all t…”
Data centers drive 94% of PJM load growth, 17% of US power
“The latest numbers show that in January of this year, NERC forecasts a summer peak increase of 224 gigawatts, almost all of which will come from data centers. Data centers now account for 94% of PJM's projected peak load growth, and by 20:30 EPRI forecast that…”
Power rates historically rose slower in regions with faster data center growth
“And, you know, some data shows that in areas where data centers grew more quickly, rates actually increased more slowly.”
Sivaram: Over 100GW of stranded grid capacity could power flexible data centers
“The grid is utilized at roughly 50% or less during most of the year, and therefore, we have all of this hundred plus gigawatts of stranded power capacity that could power AI factories connecting to the grid today if during those rare peak moments AI factories …”
Sivaram: Study shows AI workloads offer 18% to 55% power flexibility
“There's a March, 20, 26 paper that was published actually by Emerald's chief scientist, Professor Aisha Koskun at Boston University with Two others, both at BU and at Emerald AI, that shows a 18 to 55% power flexibility opportunity across a range of different …”
Emerald AI and Oracle migrated live inference queries to avoid winter peak
“So with Oracle, we showcased migrating AI workloads from one location, Virginia, to another, Chicago. And this was during the data winter, the Dominion winter peak period, the inference queries got rerouted in such a way that you were able to precisely meet th…”
Johnson: Tax equity market reached $36B in 2025 via hybrid transactions
“So the tax equity market grew from about twenty billion in 2022 to about thirty six billion this past year, which is a really material growth with most of it coming from hybrid transactions that allow for the subsequent sale of the tax credit.”
Nolan: US has no commercial-scale domestic enrichers, relies on Europe and Russia
“If you look at enrichment today and what the U.S. Consumes, It's about 75% Europe, European producers and it's about 25% Russia. And so we can talk about the history of how we got here, but there's no commercial at scale U.S. Producer operating anywhere. There…”
McAvoy: LLM training data centers can easily curtail power, unlike inference centers
“They are doing large language model training.
They're doing batch processing.
They're not real-time
Critical.
They're not doing inferencing AI in those data centers, and you can curtail those data centers, like, very very easily, but when you're talking about,…”
McAvoy: Data centers are funding off-site batteries to speed up grid interconnection
“We are seeing data centers like, you know, and even retail Energy providers who are coming to a utility hand in hand and saying, look, we want to put a data center here. I'm the retail energy provider. I'm going to provide this data center with energy. I neede…”
Shafer: Yucca Mountain would already be legally full if opened today
“Right now, if Yucca Mountain was opened we had a 70, a legal limit of Yucca Mountain of 70,000 metric tons of material, right? So, at 90,000 metric tons, Yucca Mountain would nominally be full, right?”
Moskowitz: US domestic solar module capacity of 40-50 GW meets total demand
“And, you know, at the moment, we have enough module capacity to supply U.S. Demand. That's, you know, 40 to 50 gigawatts a year, and there's probably even more than that.”
Kann: US solar modules cost roughly three times the global average price
“We pay 30 cents a watt for solar modules in the US or something like that, and the global average price is probably 10 cents a watt.”
Roberts: Pakistan recently imported solar capacity equivalent to 40% of total load
“Pakistan went, like, I think it was like two years or three years, 40% of its total load now was It has imported solar panels equivalent to 40% of its total load.”
Baglino: Solid-state transformers are 50 to 100x more power dense
“So when we do this with a solid state transformer, we basically move the 60 hertz transformer to a hundred kilohertz transformer, And that makes it much smaller, like, 50 to a hundred times more power dense”
Baglino: Central inverters average 97.5% to 98% availability, leading solar plant underperformance
“Solar inverters are the largest source of underperformance on utility-scale solar plants. It's not the modules. You'd think it would be the modules, because there's so many of them, and they're out in the field, and you worry about hail, and you worry about wh…”
Siegel: The cost to build combined-cycle gas plants doubled or tripled
“Two, we've gone through this, again, very short period where prices for building a new large generation resource went from, let's say, for a combined cycle 10 years ago, we could build a new combined cycle for
A little bit over a thousand dollars per KW.
And t…”
Kann: 10 GW of Texas load curtailed purely from price signals
“10 gigawatts of load that was expected to show up didn't show up. There is no formal demand response program, but it's a price signal, and so this is like maybe the most stark example that I've seen of load responding to price at that kind of scale.”
Huff: NRC faces a February 23rd deadline on radiation dose rulemaking
“Just a month from now, February 23rd, they'll have to release rule, like, guidance rulemaking on how they have either changed or not changed those dose rates without any real new data, just because the administration has declared that they ought to.”
Huff: X-Energy and Kairos reactor licenses are advancing rapidly at NRC
“Certain applications are going really well and quickly with decisions kind of moving rapidly. The ones that were already in progress, like X-Energy's reactor and Kairos' reactor and stuff, have had some nice announcements recently associated with their, you kn…”
Valor Atomics' Los Alamos criticality achievement was merely a zero-power test
“For example, Valor Atomics announced that they had reached criticality at Los Alamos, but, you know, it's an experiment that Los Alamos already had running. It is with a fuel similar to Valor Atomics fuel, but it was a zero power criticality test, so it's basi…”
McGinnis: Current NEC Guidance Permits Behind-the-Meter Plug-In Batteries
“At the sort of electrical code level, these are, this is already allowed under the current guidance, and there are many products that support that. So from that lens, you could say in most places you can go out and buy these things and plug them in in whatever…”
McGinnis: 24 US States Have Introduced Plug-In Grid Export Bills
“A lot of the attention that's happened recently around regulations is specifically there's bills now introduced in I think it's up to 30 states, or sorry, 24 states with maybe 30 soon Introducing bills where you can actually export to the grid through these de…”
Bullard: Clean Energy Transition Index gained 40% in 2025, beating Nasdaq
“Fenced off to the calendar year, 20, 25, and then calendar year, 20, 25 the S&P Global, the Clean Energy Transition Index, was up 40%, rebased value of a hundred at the start of the year, tips out at a 140 at the end. So more than the S&P and the NASDAQ 100, w…”
Bullard: China manufactures 42% of passenger cars, topping Japan's historical peak
“For the first three quarters of last year about 42% of all passenger vehicle manufacturing is in China last year. That's higher than the ratio for Japan ever was back in its heyday.”
Burton: Data centers face power shortages rather than chip or land constraints
“There's plenty of space. There appear to be plenty of chips but there isn't enough power.”
Burton: Utility cost increases stem from transmission and distribution, not generation
“And if you look at, certainly in this region, How electricity costs have increased for us and actually our gas costs as well. It has been largely on the transmission and distribution side. So not so much, you know, on the generation side.”
Bullard: Planned combined-cycle gas plant capital costs will double by 2030
“You know on the order of, like, more than a 160 active plants, like close to about 80 gigawatts worth of actual capacity, in which the cost of a combined cycle has doubled. Like, twenty-twenty-six deliveries, things that are gonna come online this year, are in…”
Bullard: Data centers represent only 8% of global electricity demand growth
“Space cooling, so just aircon and buildings is gonna be, like, 10% of the total growth. And data centers are right around eight percent.”
Matthew: Constellation CEO says current power prices cannot support new gas plants
“If you look at the, like the last two earnings calls, right, you have the folks like the CEO of constellation talking about the fact that, you know, energy prices actually aren't supportive of building new gas plants, which may or may not be true.”