Lazard's Shanu Matthew discusses with Shail Khan how independent power producers (IPPs) are incentivized to message against building new capacity to protect wholesale power pricing.
Insight
Matthew: Hyperscalers hype power constraints to induce third-party infrastructure overbuilding
“So if you think about that from a power standpoint, my incentive in that scenario would be to talk up power constraints, right? Saying that there's not nearly enough of it. We need to build so much. Like this is the greatest cycle because that will incent spec…”
Insight
Matthew: Power constraints widen Nvidia's total cost advantage over less efficient chips
“Because since we are power constrained and that constraint is expected to get worse and power prices rise, the NVIDIA chip holders actually, like the TCO advantage that they have versus less efficient chips actually goes up in that scenario, right? So they act…”
Assertion Supported
Matthew: AI capital expenditures have reached half a trillion dollars a year
“All the dollars that we're spending, you know, which is on the order of half a trillion dollars now a year”
Assertion Supported
Matthew: Top-tier lithium producers guided to negative free cash flow
“And if you look at a lot of what was said in this recent earnings season, a lot of the companies, so like a lot of the ones I just mentioned are what we'd call tier one producers. So they have the lowest cost assets in the world. So, you know, if anyone's maki…”
Insight
Matthew: Tech and energy have a duration mismatch of years versus decades
“The, you know, magnitude and duration of the cycle is of the debate, but it introduces a duration mismatch where technology is often done on cycles that are, you know, one to two years, whereas energy is typically multi-year, even multi-decadal, depending on t…”
Opinion
Matthew: Data center equipment and labor have pricing power unseen in generations
“Whereas now you're pricing power for the first time in, in generations, right? For certain equipment providers or certain labor producers.”