The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 2,090 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 24 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Yedvab: Reflecting under 1% of sunlight stabilizes global temperatures
“Less than one percent is enough to essentially stabilize temperature, and you can even take temperature down a little bit.”
Lubershane: EVs benefited from early solar investments in power electronics
“Electric vehicles have obviously had, had this tremendous impact on, on batteries, but electric vehicles themselves benefited from early investments from the solar industry in, ah, power electronics, in wide band gap semiconductor materials, which enable highe…”
Kann: Off-grid data centers are usually temporary bridge power
“Because usually what's happening is that if the data center is operating off grid, it's temporary. It's a bridge power situation. Eventually they're going to get connected to the grid.”
China has auto overcapacity in every powertrain, not just electric vehicles
“EVs, PHEVs, hybrids, gasoline, they have overcapacity in every powertrain, and we're seeing exports to last year, half of them were EVs, half of them were gasoline-powered vehicles.”
EVs jumped from 5 percent to 50 percent of China's market since 2020
“Electrics were five percent of the Chinese market in 2020. They're half now”
Fulgham: Global solar generation increased by 636 TWh (30%) in 2025
“Solar has really had a standout year in 2025 increased by 636 terabyte hours. So that's twice the size of the UK's annual electricity demand. Huge amount of additional electricity globally that's coming from solar. And the really interesting trend that we foun…”
Fulgham: Global battery storage installations grew 46% to 250 GWh in 2025
“The installations in 2025 were around 250 gigawatt hours of energy capacity from batteries, and that's a 46% increase over the deployment in the previous year.”
Fulgham: Japan and Korea committed to faster renewables buildout to exit gas
“Japan and Korea in a slight panic have already committed to a much faster build out of renewables to get away from gas as quickly as possible. Almost all of their gas is imported LNG.”
Panthalassa nodes passively self-propel continuously using wave heave against their hulls
“We have the pumping action into the reservoir. We also have a shape towards the bottom of the system that pushes water backwards, so the system moves forward. The system is always moving forward. It's always moving forward as it moves up and down. And so all w…”
A 15-meter Panthalassa floating node receives over 2 MW of wave energy
“If you put an object that's, say, like, 15 meters across in this region, you can calculate how much energy is fluxing through you in the form of the waves, and it amounts to, like, well over a megawatt. You know, it's two two and a half megawatts on average in…”
Floating wave nodes represent only 10 to 20 percent of total costs
“If you're doing computing, it can easily be the case that the node is, the node itself is like a fifth to a 10th of the cost structure, especially if you count multiple replacements of the payload over time.”
Sheldon-Coulson: Panthalassa satellite connection adds 100 milliseconds of latency
“The additional latency that we have is only like a hundred milliseconds. That, Vanishes into the, even the latency of time to first token on most pre-fill certainly on the interactive latency of a human waiting for an output”
Von Munch: Best steady-state fusion result remains a 1990s tokamak record
“And the closest experimental result for steady state fusion is from a tokamak from the nineties, a factor of a few from the scientific finish line.”
Von Munch: High-temperature superconductors are not needed for inertial fusion
“Something like high temperature superconductors are a relevant piece of the puzzle for steady state approaches like tokamaks instillerators. They're not relevant for inertial approaches like what we do.”
Von Munch: Every fusion approach must breed its own tritium to be economical
“Every fusion approach out there needs to breed its own tritium to be economical, so make tritium from fusion events using deuterium and lithium.”
Linville: Nitrogen and phosphate markets were already tight before Hormuz disruption
“The problem is, if you go back to January one, nitrogen markets and phosphate markets were already dealing with supply tightness because of European production rates, because of a lack of Chinese exports, because the ongoing Russian-Ukraine war.”
Linville: European nitrogen fertilizer production is running at 75% capacity
“That means their production, their nitrogen production in Europe is only sitting about 75% of normal, and that's for all of Europe, and when you start to break that down, That's about three and a half million tons of urea that's not being produced a year. That…”
Linville: One-Third of World's Tradable Urea Passes Through Strait of Hormuz
“About a third of the world's tradable urea gets exported through that waterway, and so we always look at the top 10 exporters in the world. That's who you really want to watch. Three of the world's biggest urea and anhydrous exporters sit behind the strait. Th…”
Linville: Persian Gulf Disruption Cut Indian Urea Production Up to 50%
“India is very reliant on those LNG exports from the Persian Gulf. That's how they feed their nitrogen plants. And just to give you a scope of size, they produce over thirty million tons of urea every single year. And at one point at their worst spot, their pro…”
Linville: Over 900,000 tons of urea are trapped behind Strait of Hormuz
“Our estimates are somewhere between 900 to a million tons are sitting on vessels right now, literally just sitting in the Persian Gulf waiting, waiting for somebody to give them the go ahead.”
Linville: Most new North American anhydrous ammonia capacity utilizes clean energy
“Anhydrous is one that we produce almost all that we already need. So we're not that reliant on imports, and that's where a lot of the new nitrogen production is coming from. It's new anhydrous facilities, and a lot of it's backed by this green energy.”
Linville: A world-scale nitrogen production facility costs $3B to $5B
“You've got to come up with three, four, five billion US dollars for a world-scale nitrogen production facility. They are not cheap.”
Linville: India partnered with Russia on a dedicated urea production plant
“India has partnered with Russia To do a partnership facility based in Russia with the tons all flowing to India.”
Google reached 1 GW in utility demand response agreements by March 2026
“In March, we actually hit a significant milestone in agreements with utilities for a gigawatt of demand response across our fleet.”
Google reached 1 GW of flexible data center capacity across five utilities
“Google now, ah, has reached a gigawatt of contracted flexible capacity across, I think, five different utility territories, at least some of whom, ah, are willing to provide some of these benefits.”
Johnson: Clean energy financing reached $200B on $120B CapEx in 2025
“When I tell you that the CapEx number, so the total investment in these projects, was a hundred and twenty billion in twenty-twenty-five, the total financing number is actually north of 200, because some amount of the capital that came in later takes out earli…”
Johnson: Transferable tax credit market hit $42B in 2025, up from $9B
“In that first year, twenty-twenty-three was about a nine billion dollar market. The market in twenty-twenty-five for direct transfers was a forty-two billion dollar market.”
Bayes: Projects with $500M+ tax credit tranches grew from two to dozens
“So, for instance, when we did our first report, we found, I think, maybe two, there were perhaps two projects that had tax credit Tronches are entitled to generate a tax credit in excess of five hundred million dollars. That number is into the dozens now.”
Bayes: Clean energy financing bifurcated between bank debt and private credit
“So we see a bit of a bifurcation between the traditional kind of project finance bank capital source, which remains very Cost competitive for a lot of developers. And then some of our newer, smaller developers who are accessing other forms of capital, includin…”
Johnson: Fortune 1000 participation in tax credits grew from 50 to 250
“In the first year, twenty-twenty-three, if you're looking at the Fortune 1000, about 50 participated in the market. That number is now 250, right?”
Bayes: Tax credit purchases reduce corporate effective tax rates by roughly 3%
“I mean, they're purchasing tax credits at a discount, and in general, what we find is that that translates to a reduction in their effective tax rate of roughly three percent, which is, I mean, if you have a hundred million dollars in tax liability that you're…”
Johnson: Battery Storage Deployments Grew About 72% from 2024 to 2025
“I think the growth in terms of deployed gigawatts from 24 to 25 was about a 72% improvement or growth rate.”
US uranium enrichment market share dropped from 86% to under 0.1%
“And so we went from a place of 86% global market share down to less than .1% today by U.S. Companies or U.S. Entities.”
McAvoy: Texas battery storage pricing peaked in 2023 then fell sharply
“And I think the last really good year of battery pricing, for example, in Texas was probably around, like, twenty-twenty-three. And then it started to really drop in 24. And then, like, we saw it further in twenty-twenty-five.”
Data center operators refuse curtailment to maximize expensive GPU uptime
“I spoke to quite a number of kind of data center developers data center owners and basically they don't want to curtail full stop. I mean, they have fitted out their data center with the best infrastructure. They've paid a lot of money for GPUs and CPUs, extre…”
McAvoy: Crypto data centers are by far the most flexible for curtailment
“The ones that are the most flexible
by far are the crypto data centers, and there's lots of them in Texas, and they're the ones that have, like, flexibility in terms of, well, if the prices are super high, ah, I don't need to curtail.”
Shafer: Yucca Mountain had a statutory 10,000-year management obligation
“The legal limit on Yucca Mountain was a 10,000 year management, you know, obligation.”
Shafer: US holds 90,000 tons of nuclear waste, adding 2,000 annually
“It's about 90,000 metric tons. We generate about 2000 metric tons a year.”
Shafer: Yucca Mountain remains the legal US nuclear waste repository
“Yucca Mountain is still actually the law of the land in the U.S. This is what is in the Nuclear Waste Policy Act”
Moskowitz: Nearly all solar panels purchased in the US are domestically assembled
“And, you know, we're at a point now where, you know, if you're a buyer of solar panels in the United States, pretty much every panel you're going to get is at least domestically assembled.”
Moskowitz: Only Qcells and Hemlock Corning produce solar wafers in the US
“At the moment, there's only two companies, Qcells and Hemlock Corning, that are making wafers, are about to start making wafers in the United States.”
Moskowitz: US-made solar remains cost-competitive with other energy sources on LCOE
“Even when a product is made in the United States, and in solar, solar specifically, It is still cost competitive with other forms of technology. You look at Lazard's LCOE models and those cost charts, solar is always going to be right on the bottom, and that i…”
Moskowitz: Clean energy is the only expanding US manufacturing sector
“Manufacturing as a whole has contracted in the United States over the last five years, except for clean energy manufacturing.”
Kann: US solar power purchase agreement prices have risen in recent years
“Solar PPA prices have gone up over the past couple of years, not down, which is a narrative violation for some people, but it's true.”
Moskowitz: US solar at 30 cents per watt remains cheapest to deploy
“The reality is, is, again, even at 30 cents a watt, and if we're made in the U.S., we are still the cheapest and fastest thing to deploy in pretty much every scenario.”
Elder: Interconnecting gigawatt-scale data centers takes 5 to 7 years in many markets
“How, how long can we, how much time will it take to build out the transmission capacity necessary to interconnect these mega sites, gigawatt scale sites to new power supply, ideally, you know, carbon free power supply. And in many markets, right, that's runnin…”
Elder: Stripe and Scale study found 1TW+ off-grid potential in Southwest
“There was this foundational study that came out about two years ago that was co-authored by Stripe and Paces and Scale Microgrids, and they found over a terawatt of opportunity in the American Southwest alone, with high levels of renewable development being ab…”