Assertion Supported AI assessment confidence: 95% certainty 4/5 debate potential 2/5

Elder: Stripe and Scale study found 1TW+ off-grid potential in Southwest

Jake Elder · AI scaling pathways: on grid, on edge, off grid, off planet · Mar 12, 2026 · at 18:58

Jake Elder and Shayle Kann discuss the land and renewable resource potential for islanded, off-grid AI data centers.

0:00 / 0:26exact quote · 26.7s

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“There was this foundational study that came out about two years ago that was co-authored by Stripe and Paces and Scale Microgrids, and they found over a terawatt of opportunity in the American Southwest alone, with high levels of renewable development being able to support those assets, like, 50% solar plus batteries at cost parity to using all gas and the ability to get up to, I think, 80 or 90% solar without a meaningful Cost increase.”

quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →

The claim, plainly

A study co-authored by Stripe, Paces, and Scale Microgrids found over one terawatt of off-grid data center opportunity in the American Southwest, supported by 50% solar plus batteries at cost parity with natural gas and up to 80% to 90% solar without meaningful cost increases.

a quote alone can be ambiguous, so this restates it with the references and context of the conversation around it resolved. AI-written; the tape below the player is the source.

Assessment

In December 2024, researchers from Stripe (Zeke Hausfather, Nan Ransohoff), Paces (Kyle Baranko, James McWalter), and Scale Microgrids (Duncan Campbell) co-authored the report 'Fast, scalable, clean, and cheap enough: How off-grid solar microgrids can power the AI race'. The study concluded that: (1) there is over 1.2 TW (>1,200 GW) of technical off-grid datacenter potential on identifiable parcels in the American Southwest; (2) a configuration supplying ~44% of lifetime demand from solar with gas backup achieves near cost parity ($93/MWh vs. $86/MWh for all-gas); and (3) a 90% solar-plus-storage configuration can be achieved with a modest cost increase ($109/MWh), remaining cheaper than clean firm alternatives.

In December 2024, Stripe, Paces, and Scale Microgrids co-authored 'Fast, scalable, clean, and cheap enough: How off-grid solar microgrids can power the AI race'.
The report identified >1,200 GW (>1.2 TW) of datacenter opportunity in the U.S. Southwest suitable for off-grid solar microgrids.
The report modeled ~44% solar penetration with gas backup at $93/MWh (near parity with $86/MWh for pure gas) and 90% solar-plus-storage at $109/MWh without substantial cost escalation compared to alternative clean firm resources.

Checked against

[1] scalemicrogrids.com [2] offgridai.us [3] fliphtml5.com [4] offgridai.us [5] offgridai.us

"Scale Microgrids" "Paces" data center 50% solar cost parity "Stripe" "Paces" "Scale Microgrids" data center "Paces" "Scale Microgrids" "Stripe" "terawatt" OR "TW" data center

assessed as of 2026-09-02

This assessment is an AI reading of a public statement, made against the cited references with the confidence shown. It can be wrong. The quote, the tape and the references are all on this page; if something is off, use report an error below. full disclaimer →

Mentioned

American Southwest Scale Microgrids Stripe

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Elder: Stripe and Scale study found 1TW+ off-grid potential in Southwest

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