The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 2,090 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 24 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Reinhart: Non-CO2 greenhouse gases drive 55% of current global warming
“What is often not understood is that warming today, only 45% of warming today is from carbon dioxide. The other 55% of warming today is from a host of other greenhouse gases.”
Reinhart: Atmospheric aerosols currently mask about 0.5°C of gross warming
“We need to grapple with is that we have actually 1.8 degrees of warming in the atmosphere today. And you'll probably say, well, no, Erica, we have one, 1.2 or 1.1 or 1.3. And that's correct. That's net warming. And the reason is that we actually have aerosols …”
Reinhart: Livestock is largest methane source lacking technical solutions
“The remaining livestock emissions for which we don't yet have, ah, supply sides or production side solutions for cutting methane, ah, is, it's the largest single category of anthropogenic methane emissions that we don't yet have technical solutions for.”
Reinhart: Roughly 90% of enteric methane emissions come from grazing livestock
“It's something like two to 10% of enteric methane emissions that are most likely kind of in a actively fed scenario, and the other ninety-ish percent are not,”
NASA's Apollo mission semiconductor procurement catalyzed the creation of Silicon Valley
“In the 19 sixties NASA provided the early market for integrated circuits in the Apollo mission. And that's why we have Silicon Valley.”
O'Donnell: Renewable electricity sources are now cheaper than industrial fuels
“Those renewable electricity sources are now cheaper than the fuel being used today.”
O'Donnell: Electricity-to-heat thermal storage solutions exceed 95% efficiency
“This entire class of solutions, every one of them is above about 95% efficient in capturing electricity and delivering continuous heat.”
O'Donnell: Oklahoma Saw 2,000 Hours of Negative Wind Prices in 2021
“Oklahoma had 2000 hours last year of negative wind prices.”
O'Donnell: Oklahoma Wind Faces 10-Year Queue, California Solar Averages 7.5 Years
“There's a 10 year interconnection queue in Oklahoma for new wind projects. The average interconnection time for new utility scale PV projects in California is seven and a half years.”
Chase: Nearly 1 TW of Polysilicon Capacity Is Slated to Come Online by 2024
“There is nearly a terawatt of new polysilicon manufacturing capacity intended to come online in the next two years.”
Chase: European Governments Grant 18-Month Merchant Power Relief to Stalled Solar
“They've said, if you build your project now, we'll give you the merchant power price for the first 18 months, or until your project was due online. And since that is, well, technically the cap is a 180 euros a megawatt hour, and if you think of these projects …”
Chase: European Power Merchant Rates Hit 600 Euros per Megawatt-Hour
“There's a cap of 180 euros per megawatt hour because To solar and wind generators to, as basically a windfall tax on their profits. The merchant rates have sometimes been up to 600 euros a megawatt hour.”
Kann: US Congress almost never repeals existing tax credits early
“One is, in the U.S., we have a great track record of never, basically never pulling back on existing tax credits once they exist. We sometimes don't extend them, but it'd be very difficult to point to a situation in which there has been a tax credit in place s…”
Chase: US solar capex is 30% to 100% higher than Europe's
“Which is why US solar capexers are consistently 30 to a hundred percent higher than in, than for similar projects in Europe, and your import tariffs don't help either, but that's actually only a relatively minor part of it.”
Ellis: Sublime's process yields pure CO2 for under $10 a ton
“This means that we can use calcium carbonate, in which case, when the calcium is extracted, we're left with pure, cold, compressed CO₂, so inherently captured CO₂ that's ready to go into a pipeline or to be used in food grade applications, a very low cost of c…”
Ellis: Sublime achieves standard strength without high-temperature kiln chemistry
“So, you know, we don't use a thermal process in the kiln. So, you know, we don't have 1500 degrees Celsius, and therefore we don't make that tricalcium silicate phase that's only stable at that temperature. But we still make, in the end, that calcium silicate …”
Ellis: Sublime's cement matches the embodied energy of Portland cement
“Sublime's process has, produces a cement that has the same embodied energy as Portland cement today.”
Lubershain: Heat pump coefficient of performance drops to 1 at -5°F
“By the time you get to around, you know, negative five, -10 degrees, certainly anywhere below that, with almost any heat pump on the market A, that heat pump loses some of its Capacity. So you need a bigger heat pump that starts with higher capacity in order t…”
Reed: Reconductoring with composite core lines can double grid capacity
“It's a lot faster to add capacity to the grid by just taking out old steel reinforced lines and replacing them with composite reinforced lines. You can get multiple times the capacity. I think two X is the number that I hear most hear quoted the most.”
Reed: Utility regulations incentivize building new transmission over maximizing existing systems
“You can get a rate of return on new capital expenditures, which is new transmission lines, but you don't get that same benefit as an investor-owned utility for just maximizing what you already have in your system, right? In most places, right?”
Reed: Federal backstop authority for transmission line siting has never been used
“Transmission has always been permitted exclusively at the state level. There's been some very, very narrow federal authority established for it, but it's kind of this multi-step, elaborate process. There's a study, and then someone else has to review it, and t…”
Steele: About 300 Million Unelectrified People Can Afford Existing Solar Home Systems
“Even of the six hundred million people without access, you know, by our estimates at Nithio, we think about half of those people could afford a financed Solar home system that's available right now.”
Fleece: Hourly versus yearly temporal correlation shifts hydrogen costs by 10 percent
“The difference between Even yearly and hourly temporal correlation, the difference in, in the levelized cost of hydrogen and how that impacts the price of hydrogen is not that much. There has been recently, very recently in September, an excellent paper from t…”
Jaffe: US battery cells gain 30% to 40% advantage over Chinese cells
“So you're essentially talking about somewhere around 30 to 40% price advantage, or advantage that this, a U.S.-made cell gets over a Chinese cell.”
Yergin: European wholesale power costs will exceed $1 trillion in 2022
“Typically, the European wholesale electric power costs are a hundred to hundred and fifty billion dollars. This year, they'll be over a trillion dollars.”
Yergin: China's Russian oil imports surged from 1M to nearly 2M bpd
“You know, it's interesting to see, since this crisis began, they're up to almost two million barrels a day on Of Russian oil now. And, you know, before they were kind of keeping it at a million barrels a day.”
Yergin: Russia is earning more from energy in 2022 than in 2021
“One is the fact that Russia is making more money out of energy this year than it did last year.”
Beard: 20 geothermal startups are stranded needing $30M–$50M for demonstration projects
“There's 20 teams globally right now that could be in the field building a geothermal project that can't raise the 30 to fifty million dollars they need to go out and drill the well and build the plant”
Mukhopadhyay: Airport hydrogen production infrastructure costs as much as a new terminal
“And the estimates for about, for what kind of Investment that would require is on the order of sort of build all of that onsite production and storage, it would cost as much for the airport to build a whole new terminal.”
Mukhopadhyay: Electric Aircraft Are 6-7x More Efficient Than SAF Jets
“When you take into account the electric propulsion efficiencies, you can get close to six to seven times more efficiency between electric aircraft and jet aircraft that are run on synthetic aviation fuels.”
ChargerHelp survey found 30% to 50% of 5,000 EV chargers underperformed
“They did a survey of about 5000 chargers and found that, Again, 30 to 50% of them had substandard performance.”
Jenkins: Clean Electricity Incentives Will Cut 360M Tons of Emissions
“Our modeling finds that accelerating the deployment of clean electricity, a trend that of course is already well underway, but gets sort of supercharged by the incentives in this bill, will drive the largest chunk of the overall emissions reductions just over …”
Jenkins: $85/Ton 45Q Credit Makes Heavy Industry Carbon Capture Economically Viable
“None of those really pencil out at 50 dollars a ton. They do, in many locations, at 85 dollars a ton. Not everywhere. Not every facility is laid out for this. Not every facility, you know, will this be the best option? Some will want to electrify or fuel switc…”
Jaffe: Seven to eight companies produce 85% of global batteries
“What's really happening is we're moving more and more towards consolidation, and we're now, we now have a handful of seven or eight large companies that produce 85% of the batteries that are being made. And that trend is only increasing, not decreasing.”
Kann: Even with 10% leakage, hydrogen yields an 80% GHG reduction
“Even in a worst-case scenario, like worst-case leakage, 10% hydrogen leakage is crazy.
Nobody expects that to happen.
Even then, over the course of a hundred years, hydrogen is like an 80% reduction in
In greenhouse gases.”
Lacey: Renewable natural gas can only meet 20% of gas demand
“Pretty much every state study and government study shows that it can only be, you know, that, that you were looking at between five and 20% Of the total gas supply. That's the amount of renewable gas that we could supply.”
Visioni: There are zero active solar geoengineering field experiments globally
“So there are absolutely no small scale or large scale experiments going on anywhere on the planet.”
Friedmann: At $60-$120/ton CO2, burying biomass beats energy conversion
“For some of these systems, it's like, 60 dollars a ton. It's just cheaper to bury the carbon instead of making something. And at a carbon price of, say, a hundred bucks or a 120 bucks, that's pretty much everything.”
Kann: Active land grab underway for salt domes and CCS sites
“If you're looking for salt domes to store hydrogen, there's absolutely a bunch of, I don't know what to call it, but there's a bunch of exploration and there's a land grab around. There are only so many of those really big salt domes. Same thing you're startin…”
Lubershane: Net global agricultural land area has remained flat for 40 years
“We, we've increased total crop land by zero. Because we've grown so much more efficient. Yes. On net, the exact same amount of agricultural land, globally speaking, that we used when I was born.”
Bhatraju: Most enterprise ESG accounting software relies on estimates, not data
“A lot of these companies that are approaching the enterprise, fortune The E in your ESG they're mostly running off estimates, right?”
Kann: Solar and wind produce cheapest bids in most open utility RFPs
“Solar is cheap enough now that in most places, Solar and wind, I should say. Most places it is true today that if a utility or somebody issues an open RFP and just says, I want the cheapest power I can get, like, give me the cheapest kilowatt hours, the respon…”
Shah: Announced hydrogen projects model power at $30 to $34 per MWh
“And remember, for a lot of the announced projects in the country, they're talking about 30 to 34 dollars a megawatt hour for the power, right? They're not talking about 12 dollars a megawatt hour for the power.”
Shah: ACES secured investment-grade rating, unlike most single-B DOE LPO projects
“This project is really well structured. It was rated at investment grade for the loan, so it's actually really well structured. Many of our projects are triple C or single B in terms of its shadow credit rating”
House: Known rare earth reserves are sufficient without new discoveries
“There, there's sufficient identified in reserves that we don't actually need new discoveries of it. It's just that most of that is in China or Vietnam.”
House: Mineral discovery rate per exploration dollar dropped sixfold over 30 years
“The number of tier one or tier two discoveries made per dollar of exploration expenditure has dropped about six fold in the last 30 years.”
Specht: Nature's Fynd grows protein on open trays without contamination
“Importantly, they tolerate super acidic environments. And so you can grow those organisms essentially out in the open almost on cafeteria trays if you look at their production environment and have no closed containment because you don't get contamination.”
Specht: CE Delft study shows path to single-digit dollar per kg cultivated meat
“So there was a study that came out last year from a consultancy called CE Delft that looked at a few different scenarios for cost reduction and found a path towards getting in the sort of single dollar, dollars per kilogram range and that, that agrees with int…”