emerging markets

“How many endowments are, you know, less than. 20% in U S equities. There are very few that have that exposure. You know, we have more emerging markets at frontier than the portfolio than we do there.”

“I think recently we introduced a emerging markets fund. It took us a little while to get the structure put into place because of some of the things that are unique in emerging markets and clearing. But that is an area that certainly we believe that active has …”

“Well, before 2008, 2009 financial crisis, you would be hard pressed to find a Taft-Hartley plan invested in private equity invested in emerging markets. It just didn't exist. In fact, in some industries, you would not even see plans invested in developed inter…”

“I have one plan in particular that the board has decided it needs to try to Really maximize returns and shoot for an eight plus percent return profile. And that means that we have, you know, 20% invested in private equity and 15% in emerging markets.”

“If you were underwriting a Mexican government bond, you could still get paid a point and a half to two points in underwriting fees. Now you don't do it for anything except leave cable credit, and there's no fees”

“In international, we are overweight. We think they're earlier in their cycle, so we're overweight. Particularly in emerging and within emerging, particularly in China.”

“Somebody like a Rob Arnott, that I talk to on a regular basis, who personally has, 50% of his individual money in emerging markets, and said, you just don't see valuations like this, with P ratios around 12 right now.”

“You don't want to be passive in emerging markets. Even if it can be a challenging benchmark to beat, you want to be active there. You want to be trading there and not just stuck with what the benchmark offers you. And we see some skill there, too. We see that …”

“We haven't really loved emerging markets in the last year and shorted emerging markets and replaced it with US. And that was just a total return swap on both sides.”

“Nine U.S. Equity in the developed markets were 50% indexed, and emerging markets were a hundred percent active.”

“Emerging markets, Morgan Stanley was not set up for that. They didn't understand it. It was a cultural thing and their business was in New York and Japan and Europe.”

“So what happens is, if we're overweight emerging markets, which we happen to be today, Every client we have is overweight emerging markets.”

“We've got a major overweight to emerging markets and particularly China, and we're actually debating what's the right allocation for China, et cetera. Right now it's a little over 10% of the entity. It's an important component of our public equities. We're abo…”

“We don't tend to hedge our currency exposure in emerging markets, but we may get very nervous broadly about emerging markets exposure for macro reasons, and hedge that exposure even though it's quite expensive to do so, or something like China specifically, wh…”

“I think that the US market for index funds is actually quite different from most other markets around the world in that, say the S&P 500 is very diverse with a lot of global leading companies. If you were to look in, say, emerging markets, there are a lot of c…”

“Again, it is a US and perhaps European phenomenon. You are still seeing lots of IPOs and new companies. Accessing public markets in China and emerging markets, and we think that's good.”

“I think in emerging markets, more of these intangible heavy companies are listed than here.”

“I'm bullish, and it's interesting because I've never been bullish on emerging markets since I joined financial industry, although I haven't been in the industry for that long, so it doesn't mean much, but from 2011 until this year, I've been very bearish”

“Emerging equities, emerging markets, are not only at an unprecedented low relative, but they are actually quite cheap, absolutely, compared to the US, and on their own.”

“Emerging markets, as I said, it's way over half of the global GDP. It is growing far faster, and because of the size of China, it's guaranteed to do that. It's going to have a much better growth rate this year under stress, much better than the GDP growth of t…”

“Coming up to today, about half of our business Is now outside the U S about a thirds of in emerging markets.”

“The emerging markets didn't open up to U.S. Investors until 1992, and so being able to be on the forefront of that and run that business essentially for a few years really gave me a huge view as to how non-U.S. Investors and U.S. Investors looked at investing”

“We think a lot of the U S high yield markets got rich. So we've been pairing that back on more up into up an IG, running up more of a barbell with some securitized assets, learning a little bit of EM and then just letting the teams go.”

“I find that kind of silly and frustrating when people want to apply Scandinavian levels, types of corporate governance standards on emerging markets. We are emerging. I applaud companies when they make change. It's about so many times about the trajectory of c…”

“I think it would be rather hard to recreate this as a sort of one man shop or a small man shop, a small woman shop. It would be very hard to recreate.”

“If you were to strip out the 40 most successful US stocks out of the S&P 500 and compare that to the, so the remaining S&P 460, I guess. The S&P 400 sixty's performance is actually bang in line with emerging markets. Bang in line with European markets. There's…”

“You have to consider that before Value outperformed growth on average six out of seven years in emerging markets, but post 2008 growth, I think has outperformed nine out of 11 years.”

“We've noticed that as the patriarch, the family patriarch of the family hands the reins over to the next generation, a lot of that next generation Are Western educated, are conversant in this language that we've just talked about. And so they will make changes…”

“You could look at the number of countries that have debt crises, bank crises, currency collapses. They have a lot of things in common. They required meaningful amount of external savings to balance the books.”

“What does it mean to be politically correct is to invest alongside national policy goals. And certainly while China is an extreme example that you always, you generally want to be investing in companies and industries that are being politically correct, that y…”

“Due diligence isn't just about asking a treasurer or CFO or IR at a conference in New York. That's not sufficient due diligence. You need to travel to these countries, kick the tires, meet with competitors, meet with the supply chain, meet with former employee…”

“And what I learned from that experience is really crucial to understand the controlling shareholders' motivations, because in emerging markets, the vast majority of companies have a controlling shareholder, whether it's the state or a family.”

“Many of our emerging market Success stories started off as carbon copies of successful business models in the U.S., and then we evolved and changed depending on local conditions.”

“You know, the bankable population, if you have to build branches, Is small in some countries, but if you're able to use technology in new and creative ways, then the bankable population is a hundred percent of the population practically.”

“Over the course of the next two years, I fully expect people to realize that decentralization will allow certain emerging markets to leapfrog. Because they will put it to work faster.”

“The currency risk is relatively expensive most of the time. So the best hedge for the currency and for volatility is growth in emerging market. It's not value.”

“From now on, I think emerging markets, people will keep their money in emerging markets, which should make for much stronger currencies, domestic blue markets”

“My starting point when I look at the world today is that the biggest comparative advantage the Western world has is the rule of law, is the fact that you can be brown, black, white, Chinese, Indian, it doesn't matter. You can be Hindu, Muslim, Jewish, Christia…”

“More or less, the U.S. Return is about 10 and a half percent. Non-U.S. Developed market equities close to six percent. Emerging markets slightly above developed market equity at about six and a half percent. So that's a 400 basis point under performance during…”

“When I think of how do all of those compete with each other, it's not going to be emerging markets that gets my, say, redeployment, rebalancing dollars. We just actually put more money to work in biotech.”

“Over that long period of time, the economic growth hasn't, Clearly translated into profit growth. And it's been a, from a beta standpoint, it's not been an attractive asset class to be invested in for that extended period of time.”

“I think that the question of being an investor in the emerging markets comes down to a very simple question. Are you getting paid for the risk of the volatility? And at times, frankly, the answer is yes. But I'd say generally, our experience suggests that you'…”

“Also, I find that in a lot of these markets, especially in emerging markets, the equity markets are really the most inefficient markets. They tend not to react as quickly as the currency or the debt.”

“Emerging markets is not a good buy and hold marketplace, but between being macro informed, more alpha opportunity, more short opportunities, it's a good place to own hedge funds.”

“When you look at those markets, though, my counter would be, one, fund flows probably matter more than fundamentals. Two, things like rising US interest rates are particularly bad for emerging markets or speculative markets of any kind, but particularly emergi…”

“Richard Lawrence, who is, for me, the ultimate emerging market guy. He's probably the best equity guy in emerging markets in not one, but two or three generations.”

“They were very early in the 19 nineties into private equity. They were also early into the aughts in emerging markets. And when I was there right after 2010, they were looking to pivot into the frontier markets.”

“We're humble enough and cautious enough to know that if you don't live in a country, if you don't have people that are active in that country, you're at a real disadvantage, and so I have no idea what the premium should be for buying Equities in Africa, equiti…”

“Hard currency for me is one of the more analyzable asset classes of EM at the country level.”

“If you look at just a simple measure of standard deviation of spreads in EM, it is almost at historical highs.”

“There are plenty of those where you've seen a significant transition to policy setups that are very similar to developed markets, and that is not something that reaches a lot of headlines, but it is something that has been happening in the past 20 years, I wou…”

“All of our emerging markets we do externally.”

“What's happening right now in the U.S., and I don't want to be too facetious or critical, but the U.S. Is starting to trade in many ways like an emerging market.”

“There are two macro hedge funds dedicated to emerging markets today. Two of them. There's none doing commodities.”

“One of the areas that we have gravitated away from over the years is take emerging markets, for example. So the sovereign risk, the macro risk often are the most important risk in any asset you're looking at in a specific emerging market. We don't think we're …”

“And recently we have scaled back over the past few years, we actually scaled back our allocation to emerging markets. It's still reasonably large compared to many funds. I think we're about 15%, but it's not as large as it once was. And a lot of our appetite f…”

“There was a period of time where of all the private money being invested in emerging markets around the world, 90% of that money went to Asia, of which 90% went to China. This concentration, 81% of all private investing money In emerging markets flowed to one …”

“I think that people inaccurately in holding, let's say, the U.S. As the benchmark for rule of law, for sanctity of contract, for this, for that, unfairly denigrate a lot of these other places because there are rules in all of these places. There are laws in al…”

“You can absolutely build something passive that will get you a higher sharp ratio than the underlying index. I have no doubt about that. And I have very little doubt about it, although we haven't done it specifically for the other asset classes. It may have a …”

“I think the biggest multi-asset class fund in public markets is the hundred billion dollar fund. The biggest one in emerging markets is eight hundred million dollars. There are only five that I can find.”

“The non-government bond part of the fixed income market in emerging markets is multiples in size of the bond market.”

“Scenario analysis is much more important than standard deviations. Because in many of those scenarios, it was a six standard deviation event.”

“The deal flow in emerging markets Will not support mono asset class, single country, sub-regional funds, and therefore the people who raise that money end up deploying it badly.”

“In private markets, you're starting to see multi-asset class in developed markets. You have not seen it yet in emerging markets at all.”

“Morgan did the first voluntary loan for debt exchange in emerging markets.”

“There was a long period of time, 2010 to 2024, when what was happening in the world in terms of interest rates and the US dollar was so important that it overwhelmed what was happening in a lot of countries.”

“The fact that EM is a niche and remains a niche for all the mega investors, investment firms that are out there, emerging markets is an afterthought. I promise you it is an afterthought. I don't care what they say, and it always will be because it's small.”

“Number two, on public markets, the most important thing from a risk management point of view is to have a currency capability, because currency liquidity almost never goes away in emerging markets.”

“It will be those investors who are smart enough and flexible enough to see that the combination of number of countries, number of underlying markets, number of cycles does not match up well with certainly monoline investing. And that that also does not match u…”

“Having everything under one roof is far superior if they are incented and cultured to work together. Because if you have A good FX person next to a good, even public market equity person. Both of those will generate better returns for sitting next to each othe…”

“One of the things I had known about emerging markets is emerging markets is a horizontal activity. I had built it at JPEEP as a horizontal standalone activity. It was not a fixed income subsidiary, not a subsidiary of equities or of anything else. It was its o…”

“If you had done that over the last 15 years, over roughly 20 countries, and you were right 60% of the time, in a fifteen-year bear market for emerging markets, you would have lost money in one year.”

“I now have come to the realization that it's a hard perch, high hurdle to leave the U.S., take my one marginal dollar and invest in country X in the emerging markets and expect a competitive risk-adjusted return.”

“Markets have indeed changed, and all of those risks that I mentioned now describe any country in the world, not just emerging markets and developed markets are somehow the bastions of the opposite of all of those things.”