Daniel Graña
1 appearance on the record.
computed by AI from the episodes · how this works → · full disclaimer →
30statements → 14claims → 12claims resolved → 50%fully supported → 3.83/5average certainty → 2.03/5average debate potential → ≈4.5/5argument clarity, estimated → 1said about them ↓
6 supported 4 partly supported 2 contradicted 2 not checkable as stated how the 14 claims stand · each chip opens the sources
2 predictions · 12 assertions · 4 opinions · 10 insights · 2 disclosures · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 14 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 12 are resolved, and 2 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.
The record, in short
What the tape says about how Daniel argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.
Their most notable supported claim
Expressed certainty vs assessment result
weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet
How they sound: not measured why? →
We measure speaking style by listening to the audio itself, and a fair number needs at least 2,000 words from one person on tape we have measured. There is too little of Daniel Graña on measured tape to publish a rate. This says nothing about how they speak.
Everything Daniel Graña said on Capital Allocators that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →
Graña: Purely Bottom-Up Analysis Fails for Emerging Market Stocks
“I strongly believe that you can't have a purely bottom-up discussion on emerging market stock because you miss a key part of their story, which is the nature of the system these companies operate in.”
Graña: Up To a Third of the MSCI EM Index Is State-Owned
“Between a quarter and a third of the benchmark are state-owned enterprises. Think Gazprom, Rosneft, PetroChina, ICBC, Petrobras. Most of these companies that I hope you can appreciate are governance challenged.”
Graña: China's 2060 Decarbonization Pledge Will Be the Biggest Post-COVID Story
“Decarbonization by 20 60. That will be the biggest story after COVID. I think the market is commentators will look back on 2020 and we'll miss this, but we'll say many years later that was a big announcement.”
Graña: Peak Globalization Makes Export-Driven Growth Harder for Developing Nations
“We have seen peak globalization. The export driven economic model that was used by very successfully by Japan, then Korea, Taiwan, and now China, that is not going to be as easy to replicate going forward.”
Graña: Emerging market governance should be judged on progress, not Western standards
“I find that kind of silly and frustrating when people want to apply Scandinavian levels, types of corporate governance standards on emerging markets. We are emerging. I applaud companies when they make change. It's about so many times about the trajectory of c…”
Graña: Running emerging markets equity as a boutique shop is very hard
“I think it would be rather hard to recreate this as a sort of one man shop or a small man shop, a small woman shop. It would be very hard to recreate.”
Graña: Vietnam is currently where China was 30 to 40 years ago
“If I were to turn the clock back on China, 3040 years ago, that's exactly where Vietnam is today.”
Graña: Brazil's incumbent president will likely lose to Lula next year
“And next year, it looks like the incumbent president, based on all the latest polls, would likely lose to Lula, former president of Brazil.”
Graña: Russia Holds the Vast Majority of Global Titanium Reserves
“The vast majority of the world's
Known reserves of titanium are in Russia.”
Graña: Countries suffering debt and currency crises rely on external savings
“You could look at the number of countries that have debt crises, bank crises, currency collapses. They have a lot of things in common. They required meaningful amount of external savings to balance the books.”
Graña: EM Investors Must Align Capital With National Policy Priorities
“What does it mean to be politically correct is to invest alongside national policy goals. And certainly while China is an extreme example that you always, you generally want to be investing in companies and industries that are being politically correct, that y…”
Graña: Janus Henderson holds 35% to 45% in out-of-benchmark EM ideas
“We typically are between 35 and 45% of the portfolio in out of benchmark ideas.”
Graña: Point Estimates Create False Security in Emerging Market Forecasting
“I don't like point estimates. I think that gives you a false sense of security that you know what's going to happen in Russia in year eight or China in year 12.”
Graña: EM Value Outperformed Pre-2008, but Growth Led Post-2008
“You have to consider that before Value outperformed growth on average six out of seven years in emerging markets, but post 2008 growth, I think has outperformed nine out of 11 years.”
Graña: China Solar and Wind Power Are at Grid Parity Without Subsidies
“Did you know that producing, in China, the producing electricity from solar and from onshore wind is almost at parity with producing electricity from thermal. No subsidies needed.”
Graña: Generational Successions in EM Firms Drive Better Governance and ROIC
“We've noticed that as the patriarch, the family patriarch of the family hands the reins over to the next generation, a lot of that next generation Are Western educated, are conversant in this language that we've just talked about. And so they will make changes…”
Graña: Emerging Market Success Stories Often Start as U.S. Business Model Copies
“Many of our emerging market Success stories started off as carbon copies of successful business models in the U.S., and then we evolved and changed depending on local conditions.”
Graña: EM due diligence requires grassroots fieldwork, not conference meetings
“Due diligence isn't just about asking a treasurer or CFO or IR at a conference in New York. That's not sufficient due diligence. You need to travel to these countries, kick the tires, meet with competitors, meet with the supply chain, meet with former employee…”
Graña: The S&P 460's Returns Match Emerging Markets Exactly
“If you were to strip out the 40 most successful US stocks out of the S&P 500 and compare that to the, so the remaining S&P 460, I guess. The S&P 400 sixty's performance is actually bang in line with emerging markets. Bang in line with European markets. There's…”
Graña: Fintech Expands Emerging Market Bankability to Practically 100%
“You know, the bankable population, if you have to build branches, Is small in some countries, but if you're able to use technology in new and creative ways, then the bankable population is a hundred percent of the population practically.”
Graña: Asia Generates More Innovative Companies Than Other Emerging Regions
“Clearly Asia generates a fair amount of innovative companies relative to Latin America and Eastern Europe, Middle East Africa.”
Graña: Samsung Left China to Become Vietnam's Largest Exporter
“For example, the largest exporter of Vietnam today is not shoes and t-shirts and it's actually Samsung. Samsung doesn't produce smartphones in China anymore. They do produce them in Korea, but the low and medium end phones are now produced out of Vietnam. The …”
Graña: State Enterprises Make Up Roughly 75% of Vietnam's Stock Market
“About three quarters of the Vietnamese stock market, maybe a little less now, are state-owned enterprises, which again, we struggle with from a governance perspective. And then of the remaining balance in Vietnam, many of those have hit their foreign ownership…”
Graña: Vast Majority of Emerging Market Companies Have Controlling Shareholders
“And what I learned from that experience is really crucial to understand the controlling shareholders' motivations, because in emerging markets, the vast majority of companies have a controlling shareholder, whether it's the state or a family.”
The other half of the tape: Daniel Graña's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 1 time in 1 episode on Capital Allocators. every mention, with the transcript →
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Appearances (1)
| Episode | Date | Speaking time |
|---|---|---|
| Daniel Graña – Janus Henderson Investors Emerging Markets Equity (Manager Meetings, EP.13) | Sep 30, 2021 | 42m |