The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 32 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Vogt: Fully autonomous vehicles will dominate new car sales within 2-3 years
“What I do expect is, you know, within two or three years, most likely, I think the. Majority of new car sales will transition to vehicles where people don't have to drive because once you have that choice, I have a hard time believing that people are going to …”
Vogt: Cruise will sustain 10X annual fleet growth for the foreseeable future
“Next year it'll be thousands. And then it'll kind of continue. At least 10 X growth every year for their foreseeable future.”
Petersen: U.S. trade tariffs will decrease American manufacturing
“What we've seen over the last few weeks is it's gonna decrease American manufacturing.”
Newton predicts Grammarly will be dead by the end of 2025
“Oh, can I give you a prediction? Grammarly dead by end of 2025.”
Doshi: Search engine traffic will drop over 25% before 2026
“I mean, I think there's a very high probability it is greater than that number in a shorter span of time.”
Kantrowitz: Google Cloud Will Sell OpenAI Models Within Months
“I think Google Cloud is going to start selling open AI models within the next couple of months based off of, you know, just kind of a hunch, right? So they're going to be the infrastructure layer that enables all three big models.”
Kantrowitz: Tim Cook will announce departure on Apple Q1 earnings call
“Tim Cook announces on first quarter conference call that he's leaving the company at the end of the year.”
Kantrowitz: Tim Cook could step down as Apple CEO in early 2026
“But between that departure and this mega byline story in the FT I could see Tim Cook realistically leaving in Q one in 20, 26. I think that's a real thing.”
Roy: Proposed $14B TikTok US buyout will not go through
“I don't think it's going to happen. Fourteen billion versus forty billion. And we don't actually have confirmation from Xi Jinping or from any one on the Chinese side.”
Petersen: Closing De Minimis Exemption Will Crash Air Freight Prices
“It's going to crash the price of air freight would be my prediction.”
Petersen predicts short-term goods recession driven by higher consumer prices
“Short term is going to be a lot, a goods recession for sure. I mean, there'll be less goods sold because prices will be higher.”
Broderick predicts Bluesky will reach 100 million users by early 2026
“Blue Sky
Is now north of twenty-five million users, and it's well on its way to, let's, let, let's say that by this time next year, maybe even sooner, Blue Sky is gonna be around a 100,000, Blue Sky will be around a hundred million users, which I looked up th…”
Ives: Apple's China sales will grow 15% to 20% next year
“But Alex, if you look at comps, the next year, China's gonna be up 15, 20%, and that's why, like, the bears, when they come out of hibernation mood with iPhone mathematical gymnastics trying to scare people, the reason the stock's not doing anything, because i…”
Ives: Trump victory will initially hurt AI trade, Apple, and Tesla
“Trump gets in, if he gets in, It is very negative for the AI trade. Initially, semis, tariffs, retaliatory for Apple, Tesla.”
Ives: NVIDIA will reach $4 trillion market cap in 3-6 months
“I think you're looking at four trillion dollar mark cap again in the next three to six months. I mean, that's, I think them and Apple, they battle it out for that finish line to get the four trillion.”
The public will see a GPT-5 level AI model by year-end
“Because by the end of this year, we'll get to see hopefully what a GPT-V level model looks like, and we'll learn whether we're on the path to some kind of super intelligence.”
McDermott: ServiceNow customers will build 1 billion apps within two years
“There's going to be a billion apps built in the next two years by the customers we serve on our platform.”
Enjeti predicts Republicans will win exactly 53 Senate seats in 2022
“It's easy. 53 seats in the Senate for Republicans. I think they sweep and win every single contestable one, including the Nevada.”
Brynjolfsson: Next Tech Wave Will Disproportionately Hit Lower-Skill Jobs
“Our analysis that we did in a follow-up paper with Daniel Rock of Wharton suggests that as with the previous wave, the next wave of technology also will disproportionately affect some of the lower and middle skill jobs compared to the higher skill jobs”
Beck: New chip generations demand 10x more power every ten months
“We know from all the chief manufacturers or designers, all the famous names that we're familiar with. Well, they're coming with new generations. Every 10 months, roughly now, and every 10 months the power is multiplied by 10, and that's becoming six months, an…”
Kantrowitz: ChatGPT On Track for One Billion Users by Late March
“Definitely on track for a billion by mid, mid to late March.”
Eggemeier: Bot-to-bot customer support interactions will arrive within 12 months
“Alexa talking to an AI agent that's, you know, powered by Zendesk, I really think that's gonna come over the next six or 12 months, and we're gonna have some really, really cool use cases where, The consumer is there using their own bot to interact with a comp…”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI is unlikely to release GPT-5 in 2025 or ever
“Again, I doubt we're seeing GPT-V this year, or maybe ever.”
Brown: 2024 election will likely yield divided government, boosting stocks
“It looks like actually the outcome's gonna be still up in the air, but probably lead to a divided government, which is positive for stocks, historically where no one party gets to do a lot of Weird shit in either direction.”
Doshi: GPT-5 is probably slated for release in 2024
“GPT five is probably slated imminently this year.”
Kosloff: Democrats Will Likely Suffer Historic 2022 Midterm Losses
“Look what the Democrats are gonna most likely have another set of huge historic midterm losses”
Enjeti: Biden administration will not ban TikTok due to youth backlash
“I don't think the Biden administration is the balls to ban it. I really just don't. I mean, everything that I've seen you know, they did the Huawei thing. That's cute. Everybody knows Huawei is a Chinese spy operation. I just don't think that they're willing t…”
Siegler: Meta will announce its superintelligence model 'Avocado' within weeks
“We're probably a few weeks away, maybe less from whatever they're going to, you know, announce in terms of coming out of their new AGS super intelligence efforts, their avocado model.”
Kantrowitz: ChatGPT will reach one billion users by April 2026
“ChatGPT hits a billion users, and we know it's at eight hundred million now. I expect that it will hit a billion by April next year at the latest, and I think that's a real moment, I think, for AI and OpenAI in general.”
Link: Amazon will generate $48B in free cash flow in 2024
“They are gonna generate free cash flow this year of forty eight billion dollars, so let's just put that to bed right there.”