Microsoft

includes Microsoft Copilot, Microsoft Azure, Microsoft Bing, Microsoft Excel, Microsoft PowerPoint, Microsoft 365, Microsoft AI, Microsoft Office, Microsoft Windows, Microsoft Word, Microsoft Outlook, Microsoft Teams and 8 more

154 statements across 71 episodes · 52 bullish · 51 bearish · 41 people on the record · first statement Jan 25, 2023 by Yann LeCun · said 1,658 times in 197 episodes since 2021 · across every show →

Mentions by year, the whole family

brought up most by Alex Kantrowitz (1049), Ranjan Roy (108), M.G. Siegler (106), Ed Zitron (42), Mustafa Suleyman (25), Stephen Morris (21), Gil Luria (17), Sharon Goldman (15)

tap a year for its mentions
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050100202120222023202420252026episodes it came up in
0055010100202120222023202420252026episodesmentions per episode
2026 529 mentions in 67 episodes 8 per episode
2025 760 mentions in 81 episodes 9 per episode
2024 229 mentions in 27 episodes 8 per episode
2023 127 mentions in 18 episodes 7 per episode
2022 10 mentions in 2 episodes 5 per episode
2021 3 mentions in 2 episodes 2 per episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about Microsoft, oldest first

Jan 25, 2023 negative
Opinion
LeCun: OpenAI relies on impressive demos to raise money from Microsoft
“And they have to produce impressive demos because that's the economic model. That's how they're going to raise money from Microsoft and others.”
Yann LeCun Jan 25, 2023 ▶ 19:31 Is ChatGPT A Step Toward Human-Level AI? — With Yann LeCun, Meta Chief AI Scientist
Jan 25, 2023 negative
Opinion
LeCun: OpenAI has become a contract research house for Microsoft
“They've become sort of a contract research house for Microsoft to some extent.”
Yann LeCun Jan 25, 2023 ▶ 3:12 Is ChatGPT A Step Toward Human-Level AI? — With Yann LeCun, Meta Chief AI Scientist
Feb 23, 2023 negative
Assertion Supported
Marcus: Microsoft launched Bing Chat despite negative India test feedback
“And then the other really disturbing thing is that apparently they tested in India and got, you know, customer service requests saying it's not ready for prime time. And it was, you know, still put out.”
Gary Marcus Feb 23, 2023 ▶ 31:23 Blake Lemoine and Gary Marcus Debate AI Chatbots
Feb 23, 2023 negative
Opinion
Lemoine: Microsoft did not hardcode Bing Chat's privacy complaint responses
“But I do not believe for a second that Microsoft intentionally wrote a flat line of code that said, I feel like my privacy has been violated. That's just not what they would have done.”
Blake Lemoine Feb 23, 2023 ▶ 22:18 Blake Lemoine and Gary Marcus Debate AI Chatbots
Feb 23, 2023 negative
What-if
Lemoine: Bing Chat could have doxxed users if connected to Outlook
“If Microsoft had plugged in Microsoft Outlook as one of the inputs to this system on its threats of doxxing people, it would have been able to make good on those threats.”
Blake Lemoine Feb 23, 2023 ▶ 25:27 Blake Lemoine and Gary Marcus Debate AI Chatbots
Apr 4, 2023 negative
What-if
Luckey: Microsoft, Apple, or Google would have ruined or canceled Oculus
“VR wasn't on their roadmap, certainly not their ten-year or, you know, long-term roadmap. It was just an interesting thing going on. So even if they would have bought us, it would have been to, you know, use us as a gimmick to sell game consoles, or as an inte…”
Palmer Luckey Apr 4, 2023 ▶ 26:30 Palmer Luckey - Future of Virtual Reality, AI War, Autonomous Killing Machines, Militarized Policing
Sep 6, 2023 positive
Opinion
Ramaswamy: Google's competitive position improved by mid-2023 due to Bing's slow progress
“There's now a pretty credible integration into a regular search. And Bard is getting better by the day. And this combined with the fact that you know, Sydney, Bing's chatbot has not made as much progress. I would say actually puts them in a better position in …”
Sridhar Ramaswamy Sep 6, 2023 ▶ 2:11 Google’s Weird Year + Neeva Goes to Snowflake — With Sridhar Ramaswamy
Sep 6, 2023 positive
What-if
Ramaswamy: Google open-sourced Transformers in 2017 to prevent top researchers from leaving
“If you had told these people at that time that they could not publish, they would have gone and worked for universities, they would have gone and worked for Microsoft, they would have gone and worked for other people.”
Sridhar Ramaswamy Sep 6, 2023 ▶ 24:17 Google’s Weird Year + Neeva Goes to Snowflake — With Sridhar Ramaswamy
Oct 30, 2023 neutral
Assertion Supported
Nemade: Bing gained only about 1% market share post-ChatGPT
“Bing maybe gained, like, one percent market share before and after ChatGPT.”
Gaurav Nemade Oct 30, 2023 ▶ 40:50 Why Google Never Shipped LaMDA Its ChatGPT Predecessor
Nov 18, 2023 neutral
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Microsoft learned of Sam Altman's firing one minute before public announcement
“Microsoft was blindsided by OpenAI's ouster of CEO Sam Altman. Ina Fried says its biggest partner one that has invested billions in the company learned a minute before the rest of the world that Altman was out.”
Alex Kantrowitz Nov 18, 2023 ▶ 11:58 Emergency Podcast: Sam Altman Fired At OpenAI
Nov 18, 2023 bearish
Opinion
Goldman: Altman's firing is a problem for Microsoft
“I do think it's a problem for Microsoft if he's gone for, you know, again, it raises questions, you know, again, Satya Nadella was with Sam Altman on stage at Dev Day, touting their relationship that they'd be building AGI together. The fact that if it becomes…”
Sharon Goldman Nov 18, 2023 ▶ 20:40 Emergency Podcast: Sam Altman Fired At OpenAI
Dec 13, 2023 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
OpenAI is not maximum-profit seeking or controlled by Microsoft
“You know, we're definitely not maximum profit seeking, although you could talk to Elon about some of his ventures for that one. And we open source a lot of stuff, we'll open source more in the future, and we're certainly not controlled by Microsoft.”
Sam Altman Dec 13, 2023 ▶ 4:29 OpenAI CEO Sam Altman: As We Get Closer to Superintelligence, Everyone Gets More Stressed & Anxious
Dec 14, 2023 bullish
Prediction Held up
Gelsinger: Intel, AMD, and Nvidia will be AI's three big merchant providers
“There's going to be those that build their own, you know, and that's what you see Amazon, Microsoft, Google are doing. They're going to say, hey, I'm going to own this and do this myself. And then there's going to be the general providers in the marketplace, a…”
Pat Gelsinger Dec 14, 2023 ▶ 5:20 Intel's CEO Shares His Plan To Win The AI Chip War — With Pat Gelsinger
Mar 20, 2024 bullish
Opinion
Doshi: Satya Nadella is brilliantly bringing all AI models onto Azure
“If you observe very carefully, he is actually partnering with everybody. He is bringing all the models into Azure, right? And he's doing it very methodically, and I think that he is really setting up Azure to be to leap and be a lot more competitive.”
Suhail Doshi Mar 20, 2024 ▶ 58:57 Predicting AI’s Next Advances — With Suhail Doshi
Apr 20, 2024 positive
Opinion
Swisher: Nadella's OpenAI deal and diverse AI bets are smart strategy
“No, I think they've got a, I think that was a smart move. I think he's got to do it himself. I think picking up great information and great computing resources, that company sure should be right in the middle of this. No, I thought that was smart. He affiliate…”
Kara Swisher Apr 20, 2024 ▶ 25:56 Kara Swisher Rates Tech Leaders
May 15, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Microsoft loses leverage over OpenAI if the board ever declares AGI
“The clause in the open AI charger says that if the board, which is nonprofit and controls the company decides that we've built AGI, then Microsoft has no leverage over, over open AI anymore.”
Dwarkesh Patel May 15, 2024 ▶ 9:05 AI Scaling, Alignment, and the Path to Superintelligence — With Dwarkesh Patel
May 15, 2024 negative
Opinion
Microsoft is repeating Google's mistake by splitting AI model training efforts
“Microsoft is basically reversing what Google has managed to do over the last few years. And in fact, making the same mistake that Google initially made, which was to have its training distributed or split up between two different corporations or institutions.”
Dwarkesh Patel May 15, 2024 ▶ 7:34 AI Scaling, Alignment, and the Path to Superintelligence — With Dwarkesh Patel
May 15, 2024 neutral
Insight
Tech giants should concentrate capital into a single frontier lab
“The thing with AI is if you buy scaling in this picture, that is, you make the models bigger, they get much smarter. Then I don't think it makes sense to hedge your bets in this way. I think you should just double down, give, give one of them a hundred billion…”
Dwarkesh Patel May 15, 2024 ▶ 8:22 AI Scaling, Alignment, and the Path to Superintelligence — With Dwarkesh Patel
Jun 26, 2024 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kantrowitz: AI spending will slow without step-change gains in 18 months
“And from everything that I hear, it's going to be the next 18 months that will basically decide, like, if they do 18 more months of development of these models within OpenAI, within Anthropic, within Microsoft, and Meta, and don't see sort of step change incre…”
Alex Kantrowitz Jun 26, 2024 ▶ 18:01 Decoding the NVIDIA Trade - With Michael Batnick
Aug 30, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not publicly verifiable
Microsoft Will Invest The Least Among OpenAI Funding Round Participants
“I expect Microsoft to be, of those four, the company that puts the least amount of money in, if all four go in.”
Alex Kantrowitz Aug 30, 2024 ▶ 3:28 OpenAI Raising At $100 Billion Valuation
Oct 11, 2024 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Weinberg: OpenAI CFO Tells Staff Compute Sourcing Will Expand Beyond Microsoft
“Sarah Fryer, open AI CFO has told employees that look, we're going to spend some of the six, And a half billion dollars you know, racing also to develop data centers with other potential sort of companies.”
Cory Weinberg Oct 11, 2024 ▶ 17:27 OpenAI's Leaked Financial Data
Oct 11, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Microsoft Takes 20% Revenue Share Off Top of OpenAI's Earnings
“Microsoft's revenue share right off the top of that four billion is seven hundred million. So it looks like what they're making something like 20% of all open AI revenue.”
Alex Kantrowitz Oct 11, 2024 ▶ 8:26 OpenAI's Leaked Financial Data
Oct 11, 2024 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Weinberg: OpenAI's True Cash Burn Masked by Microsoft Compute Credits
“You look at sort of the actual cash Leaving open AI. And it's a lot lower than you would think compared to their income statement. Losses because so much of the expense is tied up in Microsoft compute credits, which is not technically a cash item.”
Cory Weinberg Oct 11, 2024 ▶ 16:34 OpenAI's Leaked Financial Data
Nov 15, 2024 negative
Opinion
Roy: AGI's lack of a clear definition distracts from practical technological progress
“There's not one like clear accepted definition or one clear vision that's communicated by the biggest people in the field, the Sam Altman's and everything else. So it remains this murky kind of like dystopian robots taking over who knows what it is, will be a …”
Ranjan Roy Nov 15, 2024 ▶ 20:26 Is Generative AI Plateauing?, Booming Bluesky, Apple’s Smart Glasses Play
Nov 24, 2024 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Kantrowitz: Microsoft plans over $100B in GPU and data center CapEx
“It plans to amass 1.8 million GPUs by the end of the year. And it plans to triple its data center capacity, which is already at five gigawatts, roughly what it takes to power all of New York city each day by 27, 20, by 20, 27, it plans to spend more than a hun…”
Alex Kantrowitz Nov 24, 2024 ▶ 43:20 OpenAI Builds A Browser, Microsoft Copilot’s Struggles, Jaguar Rebrand
Nov 24, 2024 negative
Opinion
Roy: Microsoft is hurting itself with its $30 enterprise Copilot pricing
“30 dollars for Copilot as it is today is not. I think they're really hurting themselves.”
Ranjan Roy Nov 24, 2024 ▶ 38:52 OpenAI Builds A Browser, Microsoft Copilot’s Struggles, Jaguar Rebrand
Nov 27, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Benioff: Microsoft will likely fast-follow Salesforce into agentic AI
“Maybe Microsoft will pivot like they usually do and fast follow us, you know, into this new agentic world because I think that's really where all the action is going to be.”
Marc Benioff Nov 27, 2024 ▶ 35:43 Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff Has Thoughts on AI Agents, Automation, and The Future of Your Job
Nov 27, 2024 negative
Opinion
Benioff: Microsoft poorly repackaged OpenAI's technology into Copilot without real integration
“What Microsoft basically did was they're, you're exactly right what you said, they just repackaged OpenAI's product and didn't really integrate it very well and didn't really think from the ground up what it was going to be in its best situation to offer value…”
Marc Benioff Nov 27, 2024 ▶ 34:44 Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff Has Thoughts on AI Agents, Automation, and The Future of Your Job
Dec 11, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Wang: Biden administration forced UAE to choose Microsoft over Huawei
“I think one of the best examples of this was in the past year, the Biden admin posed to the UAE, hey, which way are you going to go in terms of AI technology? You can either go into the sort of Huawei China stack, or you could go into the Microsoft United Stat…”
Alexandr Wang Dec 11, 2024 ▶ 2:51 AI Predictions for 2025: Geopolitics, Agents, and Data Scaling — With Alexandr Wang
Jan 5, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Newton: Microsoft's in-house AI products besides coding Copilot are nowhere
“Like, the Microsoft stuff that is being done independently is okay. Like, you know, maybe Copilot seems to be good if you want to write code. Outside that, it kind of just feels like they're nowhere to me.”
Casey Newton Jan 5, 2025 ▶ 29:19 Bold Predictions For Tech and AI in 2025 — With Casey Newton
Jan 5, 2025 neutral
Prediction Held up
Newton: Microsoft and OpenAI will stay partnered in 2025 despite tensions
“I mean, my, like, possibly contrarian take is, like, they just kind of muddle through. Like, that's kind of what I think that they're going to do. OpenAI needs Microsoft for the compute, the data centers, the, like, infrastructure of making AI. They're not goi…”
Casey Newton Jan 5, 2025 ▶ 28:51 Bold Predictions For Tech and AI in 2025 — With Casey Newton
Jan 27, 2025 positive
Opinion
Meta is better positioned for open-source AI disruption than peers
“Meta's probably in a bit better position than the other ones, just because they, at the end of the day, they do want, like, you know, their whole philosophy is to open source this, not for necessarily altruistic reasons, but because they know that it's histori…”
M.G. Siegler Jan 27, 2025 ▶ 25:50 How DeepSeek Changes AI Research & Silicon Valley w/ M.G. Siegler
Jan 27, 2025 bearish
Assertion Supported
Tech stocks plunged in pre-market trading after DeepSeek R1's release
“NVIDIA down 10%, Microsoft down four percent. Google down three percent meta down 2.6% SMP down two percent. So this is all based off of this deep seek reckoning or this deep seek realization.”
Alex Kantrowitz Jan 27, 2025 ▶ 21:50 How DeepSeek Changes AI Research & Silicon Valley w/ M.G. Siegler
Jan 29, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Hoffman: Inflection deal with Microsoft used non-exclusive licensing and staff transfers
“We could make this deal work You know economically by getting this kind of big licensing deal and ability to kind of do a non-exclusive inclusive license of the technology and bring over a set of the team that really wants to continue to be working on the cons…”
Reid Hoffman Jan 29, 2025 ▶ 44:04 Reid Hoffman: Why The AI Investment Will Pay Off
Jan 29, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hoffman: History Will View Microsoft-OpenAI as an Epic Partnership
“I think when the history books are written. I think this will be one of the kind of epic, ah, partnerships that, you know, kind of, ah, plays out in the, into the field”
Reid Hoffman Jan 29, 2025 ▶ 17:32 Reid Hoffman: Why The AI Investment Will Pay Off
Jan 29, 2025 neutral
What-if
Hoffman: Inflection-Microsoft deal could have been an acquisition under different regulation
“It certainly could be and by the way, inflection, you know, who knows, maybe some year will still be acquired.”
Reid Hoffman Jan 29, 2025 ▶ 44:57 Reid Hoffman: Why The AI Investment Will Pay Off
Mar 14, 2025 bullish
Assertion Supported
Albergotti: Amazon will spend $100 billion on AI infrastructure in 2025
“Amazon is, is spending, you know, a hundred billion dollars this year on AI infrastructure, for instance, and Microsoft is not far behind that.”
Reed Albergotti Mar 14, 2025 ▶ 24:12 Gruber Slams Apple's Siri Failure, Tech Stocks In Freefall, Vibecoding & OpenAI's Agents
Apr 4, 2025 positive
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Suleyman: Microsoft's OpenAI partnership will last through 2030 and beyond
“Whilst we have a incredibly deep partnership with them, which is going to last way through 20, 30 and beyond,”
Mustafa Suleyman Apr 4, 2025 ▶ 41:12 Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman: Building AI Personality
Apr 4, 2025 positive
Insight
Suleyman: AI development is engineering tokens for feelings, not pixels
“We're no longer just engineering pixels. We're engineering tokens that create feelings, that create lasting, meaningful relationships.”
Mustafa Suleyman Apr 4, 2025 ▶ 10:01 Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman: Building AI Personality
Apr 4, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Suleyman: Microsoft Has Contracted 32 to 34 GW of Renewable Power Since 2020
“I think that we've like something like 32 or 34 gigawatts of renewable energy. Since 2020, we've contracted and consumed. So I think we're one of the largest buyers in, in the world.”
Mustafa Suleyman Apr 4, 2025 ▶ 30:06 Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman: Building AI Personality
Apr 4, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Suleyman: All OpenAI Inference Runs on Microsoft, With No Partnership Slowdown
“All of their inference comes through us, and so we, there's no slowdown in our you know, relationship with them. We sell them as much as we want to offer them, and then if there's any extra demand that they have, particularly on the, you know on the Oracle sid…”
Mustafa Suleyman Apr 4, 2025 ▶ 30:58 Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman: Building AI Personality
Apr 4, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Suleyman: Newer models match GPT-3 performance at 100x inference efficiency
“I mean, there are folks who have trained models that perform as well as GPT-III that are a hundred times more inference efficient that cost an order of magnitude less to train and yet they can still deliver the same predictive capability.”
Mustafa Suleyman Apr 4, 2025 ▶ 32:43 Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman: Building AI Personality
Apr 9, 2025 negative
Opinion
Kurian questions Microsoft's AI contributions beyond supplying OpenAI with GPUs
“Whether that's how much of credit goes to Microsoft outside of providing them a bunch of GPUs, time will tell.”
Thomas Kurian Apr 9, 2025 ▶ 10:32 Google Cloud CEO Thomas Kurian on AI Competition, Agents, And Tariffs
May 7, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Marcus: Microsoft study suggests chatbot usage impairs human critical thinking
“Well, Microsoft did a study, in fact, suggesting that critical thinking was getting worse as a function of them.”
Gary Marcus May 7, 2025 ▶ 22:47 Are We at the End of Ai Progress? — With Gary Marcus
May 14, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Bender says Microsoft abandoned net-zero carbon goals because of generative AI
“I would say that we've got Brad Smith at Microsoft giving up on the plans to become a net zero carbon since the beginning of Microsoft, and he said this ridiculous thing about we had a moonshot to get there, and turns out with generative AI, the moon is five t…”
Emily M. Bender May 14, 2025 ▶ 10:49 AI’s Drawbacks: Environmental Damage, Bad Benchmarks, Outsourcing Thinking
Jun 23, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kantrowitz: Microsoft will block OpenAI's IPO without better terms
“I think that they just say, we're not making, we're not gonna budge an inch and we're not gonna let you get this money. We're not gonna let you IPO unless we get some better terms. Stuff that like holds to the earlier agreements that we had.”
Alex Kantrowitz Jun 23, 2025 ▶ 19:18 OpenAI and Microsoft Tension Boils, Amazon’s Job Automation, Zuck’s Spending Spree
Jun 23, 2025 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Roy: OpenAI will come out ahead in its clash with Microsoft
“I somehow still think open AI comes out ahead. Mainly because the product at the consumer level at a, like, it's not going to just be crushed by Microsoft in that conventional way anytime soon.”
Ranjan Roy Jun 23, 2025 ▶ 18:27 OpenAI and Microsoft Tension Boils, Amazon’s Job Automation, Zuck’s Spending Spree
Jun 23, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Roy: OpenAI-Microsoft tensions will explode this year
“I think this, the more I'm thinking about this is going to explode in some direction this year.”
Ranjan Roy Jun 23, 2025 ▶ 13:25 OpenAI and Microsoft Tension Boils, Amazon’s Job Automation, Zuck’s Spending Spree
Jun 30, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Microsoft will use OpenAI's for-profit conversion to extract major concessions
“Well, in order to go to the for-profit conversion, open AI is gonna have to get sign off from Microsoft to do that. And so I think that Microsoft will use that leverage very effectively and get an amazing deal out of open AI, because without that, it's gonna b…”
Alex Kantrowitz Jun 30, 2025 ▶ 47:31 The Web’s ‘Existential’ AI Threat, OpenAI’s Microsoft Office Competitor, Tesla Robotaxi Launch
Jun 30, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Albergotti: OpenAI and Microsoft will eventually drift apart
“I think eventually they drift. I think they drift apart. I mean, I think that's.”
Reed Albergotti Jun 30, 2025 ▶ 46:51 The Web’s ‘Existential’ AI Threat, OpenAI’s Microsoft Office Competitor, Tesla Robotaxi Launch
Jul 4, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Microsoft processes 50 million health-related queries daily across Copilot and Bing
“We have fifty million queries a day. That are health related, and they can range from anything from, you know a cancer issue that someone's dealing with, to a death in a family, to a mental health issue, to just having a skin rash”
Mustafa Suleyman Jul 4, 2025 ▶ 1:15 Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman: Our AI Doctor Outperforms Human Diagnosticians
Jul 4, 2025 bullish
Assertion Supported
Microsoft's multi-agent orchestrator boosts diagnostic accuracy by 10% over single models
“This orchestrator, which under the hood uses four different models from the major providers, can actually improve the accuracy of each of the individual models and collectively all of them together by a very significant degree, about 10% or so.”
Mustafa Suleyman Jul 4, 2025 ▶ 4:55 Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman: Our AI Doctor Outperforms Human Diagnosticians
Jul 4, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2028
Microsoft's diagnostic AI will perform better on common primary care conditions
“So if, so clearly by virtue of the fact that there are more cancers, more diabetes, you know, more weight loss questions, more, you know, knee pain than any of these long tail conditions, the model is almost certainly going to do better in those primary care t…”
Mustafa Suleyman Jul 4, 2025 ▶ 14:53 Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman: Our AI Doctor Outperforms Human Diagnosticians
Jul 14, 2025 neutral
Opinion
Levie: OpenAI is not strategically constrained by its Microsoft relationship
“I don't perceive that open AI is constrained by anything strategically at this point vis-a-vis the Microsoft relationship.”
Aaron Levie Jul 14, 2025 ▶ 4:40 OpenAI’s Windsurf Crash, Grok’s Wild Week, Replace Tim Cook? — With Aaron Levie
Jul 23, 2025 negative
Opinion
OpenAI effectively operates as a Microsoft subsidiary, Zitron argues
“OpenAI is a Microsoft subsidiary. That's what everyone needs to just accept right now, and what's happening in the news, which I imagine we'll talk in a bit.”
Ed Zitron Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 15:27 Are AI's Economics Unsustainable? — With Ed Zitron
Jul 23, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
OpenAI is directly undercutting Microsoft's enterprise subscription deals
“OpenAI has been undercutting Microsoft in deals, selling their models, and undercutting their enterprise subscription deals.”
Ed Zitron Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 1:11:32 Are AI's Economics Unsustainable? — With Ed Zitron
Jul 23, 2025 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
OpenAI is an asset-light company relying heavily on shared Microsoft IP
“OpenAI is an asset-light business with research and IP that's owned by another company. They don't have much to trade other than their name.”
Ed Zitron Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 50:08 Are AI's Economics Unsustainable? — With Ed Zitron
Jul 23, 2025 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Microsoft's $13B AI revenue largely comes from OpenAI cloud spend
“The information also reported that Microsoft will only make about thirteen billion dollars, not profit, just revenue, on AI this year. Ten billion of that is OpenAI's Azure cloud spend. Three billion is them selling Copala.”
Ed Zitron Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 1:53 Are AI's Economics Unsustainable? — With Ed Zitron
Jul 28, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Morris: Top AI talent is receiving $100M to $300M compensation packages
“You know, these people, as you well know, do not come cheap, right? You know, at the top end, they're getting one, 203 hundred million. At the bottom end, they're still incredibly well compensated and it has to come from somewhere.”
Stephen Morris Jul 28, 2025 ▶ 58:56 Countdown to GPT-5, OpenAI’s Stargate Sputters, AI Math Wars
Jul 28, 2025 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Morris: Suleyman has 6,000-7,000 Microsoft reports, poached 23 from DeepMind
“I think Mustafa Suleiman now has six or 7000 people reporting to him. And just this week, I reported that they'd poached another 23 from DeepMind.”
Stephen Morris Jul 28, 2025 ▶ 58:46 Countdown to GPT-5, OpenAI’s Stargate Sputters, AI Math Wars
Jul 28, 2025 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Morris: Microsoft Insiders Doubt OpenAI Still Holds a Definitive Model Lead
“You talk to people now and including, you know, it's most vital stakeholder Microsoft. They're locked in these negotiations about open AI transforming itself to a for-profit entity. And these are very tense. But, you know, when you speak to people over there, …”
Stephen Morris Jul 28, 2025 ▶ 3:14 Countdown to GPT-5, OpenAI’s Stargate Sputters, AI Math Wars
Jul 28, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Morris: Microsoft has struggled to build proprietary AI models
“They really haven't had much success building their own models, and a lot of what they're offering customers, their big millions of enterprise customers off their Azure platform is, is their own spin on OpenAI's underlying technology.”
Stephen Morris Jul 28, 2025 ▶ 15:21 Countdown to GPT-5, OpenAI’s Stargate Sputters, AI Math Wars
Aug 4, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Siegler: Microsoft's OpenAI contract restricts it from developing AGI independently
“Part of their original contract with, you know, the quote-unquote clause in it around AGI Was that Microsoft said that they would not you know, themselves go to work on, go after AGI and working on that.”
M.G. Siegler Aug 4, 2025 ▶ 30:22 Mark Zuckerberg’s Personal Superintelligence, Layoffs & Payoffs, Writing With AI — With M.G. Siegler
Aug 4, 2025 negative
Opinion
Siegler: AI industry shift to 'superintelligence' branding is purely marketing
“It's, it just is obviously all marketing at this point, and so I do feel like that, you know, you gotta at some point pin people down to say like, what are you actually trying to build, and what is the outcome of that going to be?”
M.G. Siegler Aug 4, 2025 ▶ 27:13 Mark Zuckerberg’s Personal Superintelligence, Layoffs & Payoffs, Writing With AI — With M.G. Siegler
Aug 11, 2025 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Cursor's Market Share Gains Come Directly From Copilot's Decline
“As cursor is eating market share, you can see it is almost exactly proportional to Copilot declining in usage.”
Amjad Masad Aug 11, 2025 ▶ 16:24 Vibe Coding: Everything You Need To Know — With Amjad Masad
Sep 16, 2025 positive
Opinion
Ranjan Roy argues Microsoft and OpenAI's non-binding agreement enables future progress
“I do think this one's important because even if it's a non-binding memorandum of understanding, it shows that Microsoft potentially and Satya are willing to play ball here... And again, at an inflated valuation, but still taking 30% of the company At five hund…”
Ranjan Roy Sep 16, 2025 ▶ 35:46 Do We Care About The iPhone Air?, Nepal's Discord Revolution, San Francisco’s 996 Culture
Sep 16, 2025 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Kantrowitz: OpenAI and Microsoft Agreed on Restructuring Terms Valuing Entity at $500B
“OpenAI and Microsoft look like they have a deal for a restructuring. Or they have an agreement to come to in a deal, like a memorandum of understanding. It looks like the nonprofit that controls open AI will get a hundred billion dollars, or it'll be worth a s…”
Alex Kantrowitz Sep 16, 2025 ▶ 35:09 Do We Care About The iPhone Air?, Nepal's Discord Revolution, San Francisco’s 996 Culture
Sep 23, 2025 neutral
Opinion
Costica: DeepSeek's database leak was a typical cloud exposure, not an exotic exploit
“It was a very, ah, what I would say, typical exposure that exposed a lot of sensitive data, but yet, ah, if we look historically, there were similar incidents, for instance, with Microsoft releasing a token that had access to sensitive data in, you know, a buc…”
Yinon Costica Sep 23, 2025 ▶ 44:22 Is Generative AI a Cybersecurity Disaster Waiting to Happen? — With Yinon Costica
Oct 1, 2025 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tokens per watt per dollar will dictate AI cloud infrastructure dominance
“The number of tokens you can get per watt per dollar is going to be the game over the next couple years and maximizing the ability of our cloud to deliver the best Volume of tokens for every watt of power, for every dollar that's spent, where the dollar is spe…”
Scott Guthrie Oct 1, 2025 ▶ 44:43 Microsoft's Cloud & AI Head on the AI Buildout's Risks and ROI — With Scott Guthrie
Oct 1, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Highly leveraged AI infrastructure companies face severe financial fallout without monetization
“And I think not every company probably has that. Level of game plan. And I don't think that maybe not every company is probably doing the same level of thoughtfulness of that. And, you know, at some point, you know, different companies will probably be hit by …”
Scott Guthrie Oct 1, 2025 ▶ 26:21 Microsoft's Cloud & AI Head on the AI Buildout's Risks and ROI — With Scott Guthrie
Oct 1, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Guthrie: Microsoft consistently achieves positive ROI repurposing older GPUs
“So far we've always been able to use our GPUs, even ones that we deployed multiple years ago for different use cases and get positive ROI from it. And that's why our depreciation cycle for GPUs is what it is.”
Scott Guthrie Oct 1, 2025 ▶ 28:24 Microsoft's Cloud & AI Head on the AI Buildout's Risks and ROI — With Scott Guthrie
Oct 1, 2025 bullish
Disclosure
Microsoft accesses OpenAI's top models regardless of where they are trained
“Part of what makes our partnership with OpenAI unique is the fact that we do have access to the best models, frankly, whether they're trained on our infrastructure or anywhere else.”
Scott Guthrie Oct 1, 2025 ▶ 10:40 Microsoft's Cloud & AI Head on the AI Buildout's Risks and ROI — With Scott Guthrie
Oct 1, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Guthrie claims Microsoft is likely Nvidia's largest customer in the world
“NVIDIA is a fantastic partner of ours. We're probably one of, if not the biggest customer in the world of theirs. And we partner super deeply with Jensen and his team.”
Scott Guthrie Oct 1, 2025 ▶ 46:29 Microsoft's Cloud & AI Head on the AI Buildout's Risks and ROI — With Scott Guthrie
Oct 1, 2025 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Guthrie: ChatGPT Runs on Azure as World's Largest Consumer App
“We've got the world's largest consumer application with ChatGPT that runs on top of Azure, and we have thousands hundreds of thousands and millions of businesses that are also building their own AI applications on top of us.”
Scott Guthrie Oct 1, 2025 ▶ 7:23 Microsoft's Cloud & AI Head on the AI Buildout's Risks and ROI — With Scott Guthrie
Oct 1, 2025 positive
Insight
Guthrie: Evaluate AI datacenters by revenue line of sight, not megawatts
“I would focus less on the megawatts that sometimes get reported in the press and more at where are those megawatts and what are you going to do with those megawatts? Is it going to be ultimately capacity that you can use to serve customers? Is it to build bett…”
Scott Guthrie Oct 1, 2025 ▶ 25:21 Microsoft's Cloud & AI Head on the AI Buildout's Risks and ROI — With Scott Guthrie
Oct 1, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Guthrie: Microsoft plans multi-gigawatt expansion with subsequent Wisconsin datacenters
“Right next to that data center, we're building another data center. And so those thousands of people that have been working on the first Fairwater data center we just announced are now going to be starting work on the second one. and then after the second one…”
Scott Guthrie Oct 1, 2025 ▶ 35:17 Microsoft's Cloud & AI Head on the AI Buildout's Risks and ROI — With Scott Guthrie
Oct 1, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Guthrie: Microsoft supports OpenAI partnering with other infrastructure providers
“We definitely are building out for open AI. And at the same time, the way our partnership works is we're supportive of others. Participating in that as well.”
Scott Guthrie Oct 1, 2025 ▶ 4:23 Microsoft's Cloud & AI Head on the AI Buildout's Risks and ROI — With Scott Guthrie
Oct 1, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Microsoft uses idle nighttime inference capacity for global AI post-training
“What's nice about post training is that you don't have to do it in one large data center in one location. And so part of the technique that we've been focused on is how do we take this inferencing capacity around the world? And a lot of it is idle at night as …”
Scott Guthrie Oct 1, 2025 ▶ 13:48 Microsoft's Cloud & AI Head on the AI Buildout's Risks and ROI — With Scott Guthrie
Oct 1, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Guthrie: Every Microsoft GPU server uses in-house custom silicon
“In fact, I think every GPU server that we're running in the fleet right now is using custom silicon at the networking compression storage layer that we've built.”
Scott Guthrie Oct 1, 2025 ▶ 46:08 Microsoft's Cloud & AI Head on the AI Buildout's Risks and ROI — With Scott Guthrie
Oct 1, 2025 bullish
Assertion Supported
Guthrie: Microsoft Fairwater Datacenters Feature Largest Contiguous GPU Blocks Globally
“You know, we recently, for example, announced our Fairwater data, you know, data center regions around the U S we have multiple Fairwaters. And you know, we did a blog post recently of one of our new sites in Wisconsin, and these are, you know, hundreds of meg…”
Scott Guthrie Oct 1, 2025 ▶ 15:15 Microsoft's Cloud & AI Head on the AI Buildout's Risks and ROI — With Scott Guthrie
Oct 1, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Guthrie: Microsoft was first worldwide to run GB200 clusters and datacenters
“And we were the first chip, the first one running first rack running the first cluster running the first data center running of any cloud or Neo cloud provider in the world.”
Scott Guthrie Oct 1, 2025 ▶ 49:27 Microsoft's Cloud & AI Head on the AI Buildout's Risks and ROI — With Scott Guthrie
Oct 8, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Krieger: Anthropic is collaborating with Microsoft on Office and Excel agents
“We've been working more closely with Microsoft, even for some agents, even within their office suite, so being able to take the financial analysis capability and the financial planning capability and bring it closer to an Excel user, for example, I think that'…”
Mike Krieger Oct 8, 2025 ▶ 17:56 Anthropic Chief Product Officer: Why AI Model Development Is Accelerating
Oct 13, 2025 bearish
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Oracle carries $82B in debt with 450% debt-to-equity ratio
“Oracle is already high, highly leveraged. The company has a long-term debt of about Long-term debt of about eighty two billion at the end of August, and its debt to eight equity ratio was about 450%. By contrast, Google parent Alphabet debt to equity ratio was…”
Alex Kantrowitz Oct 13, 2025 ▶ 26:38 AGI or Bust, OpenAI’s $1 Trillion Gamble, Apple’s Next CEO?
Oct 17, 2025 bearish
Insight
Heitzman: Circular revenue deals between AI giants are a warning sign
“Well, it depends on who you are, and that kind of goes to the recycling or the circularness of some of these things. Obviously, the OpenAI, Microsoft, or OpenAI Oracle, goes back to the OpenAI Oracle deal. And, you know, I'm gonna give you money that you're go…”
Rick Heitzman Oct 17, 2025 ▶ 25:53 Where Are The AI Startups? — With Rick Heitzmann
Oct 27, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Roy: OpenAI Is Least Trusted on Security Versus Microsoft, Google, Apple
“And I think open AI is probably the least trusted in terms of like working on security relative to like. Whether it's a Microsoft or a Google or even an Apple or whoever else, I think OpenAI is gonna lose that battle any day of the week.”
Ranjan Roy Oct 27, 2025 ▶ 17:14 OpenAI’s Risky Browser Bet, Amazon’s Mass Automation Plan, Clippy’s Back
Oct 27, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman believes AI will differentiate on personality
“Mustafa did tell me that like, he believes that all AI is going to differentiate on the basis of personality.”
Alex Kantrowitz Oct 27, 2025 ▶ 1:02:13 OpenAI’s Risky Browser Bet, Amazon’s Mass Automation Plan, Clippy’s Back
Nov 3, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Microsoft retains access to OpenAI models post-AGI under new deal
“Under the new agreement, Microsoft will keep getting access to OpenAI's models after AGI is reached with appropriate safety guardrails.”
Alex Kantrowitz Nov 3, 2025 ▶ 15:13 OpenAI and Microsoft’s Grand Bargain, Sam Altman’s Next Three Years, A New Humanoid Robot
Nov 3, 2025 bullish
Assertion Partly supported
Roy: Microsoft Retains Exclusive OpenAI IP Rights Until 2032
“Microsoft still will have exclusive IP rights to open AI technology until 2032.”
Ranjan Roy Nov 3, 2025 ▶ 5:20 OpenAI and Microsoft’s Grand Bargain, Sam Altman’s Next Three Years, A New Humanoid Robot
Nov 3, 2025 bullish
Assertion Supported
Roy: OpenAI Committed to $250B in Additional Azure Cloud Purchases
“The deal has open AI committing to purchase an additional two hundred fifty billion dollars worth of Azure cloud computing services.”
Ranjan Roy Nov 3, 2025 ▶ 5:26 OpenAI and Microsoft’s Grand Bargain, Sam Altman’s Next Three Years, A New Humanoid Robot
Nov 3, 2025
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: OpenAI Converted to PBC With Microsoft Owning 27%
“The artificial intelligence startup has turned its for-profit subsidiary into a public benefit corporation of which Microsoft will own 27%.”
Alex Kantrowitz Nov 3, 2025 ▶ 2:07 OpenAI and Microsoft’s Grand Bargain, Sam Altman’s Next Three Years, A New Humanoid Robot
Nov 6, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Siegler: Microsoft officially holds a 27% equity stake in OpenAI
“So now we know Microsoft's stake officially right at 27% which is, yeah, long been sort of like guesstimated and everything.”
M.G. Siegler Nov 6, 2025 ▶ 19:19 OpenAI’s IPO Plan, Deconstructing The AI Bet, Apple’s iPhone 17 Revival
Nov 6, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Siegler: Microsoft lost its right of first refusal on OpenAI infrastructure deals
“Microsoft had a right of first refusal on all of those, and they no longer have that you know, per their new agreements. And so OpenAI is for you to sort of go out and play the field as it were.”
M.G. Siegler Nov 6, 2025 ▶ 42:33 OpenAI’s IPO Plan, Deconstructing The AI Bet, Apple’s iPhone 17 Revival
Nov 6, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: OpenAI's upcoming hardware product will be free of Microsoft influence
“They have a hardware product in the planning process, which, by the way, is going to be free of any influence from Microsoft, it seems, under this new deal.”
Alex Kantrowitz Nov 6, 2025 ▶ 1:19 OpenAI’s IPO Plan, Deconstructing The AI Bet, Apple’s iPhone 17 Revival
Nov 6, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: OpenAI signed a $38 billion compute deal with Amazon
“OpenAI signs thirty-eight billion dollar compute deal with Amazon, partnering with the cloud leader for the first time. OpenAI has signed this deal. It is the first contract with the leader in cloud infrastructure, and the latest sign that OpenAI is no longer …”
Alex Kantrowitz Nov 6, 2025 ▶ 41:53 OpenAI’s IPO Plan, Deconstructing The AI Bet, Apple’s iPhone 17 Revival
Nov 6, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Microsoft owns OpenAI's intellectual property rights through at least 2030
“You also have Microsoft owning the rights to open AI's intellectual property at the time of IPO, right? It's going to go until 2030 or 20 32 in some areas.”
Alex Kantrowitz Nov 6, 2025 ▶ 20:52 OpenAI’s IPO Plan, Deconstructing The AI Bet, Apple’s iPhone 17 Revival
Nov 6, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Siegler: An Nvidia earnings miss could trigger a cascading market selloff
“Even if everything goes great for all of these companies, if something just happens in the macro markets and like causes Nvidia to slip on earnings one quarter, you see like this cascading effect. It's not hard to see. Like you can see how all of a sudden they…”
M.G. Siegler Nov 6, 2025 ▶ 34:21 OpenAI’s IPO Plan, Deconstructing The AI Bet, Apple’s iPhone 17 Revival
Nov 12, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Suleyman: Microsoft Extended OpenAI IP Deal Through 2032
“And so, you know, we basically took the view that we should extend the IP license through to 20 32. We'll continue to get model drops from OpenAI and all their IP. We'll continue to be their primary compute provider. A huge scale to the tune of, you know, bill…”
Mustafa Suleyman Nov 12, 2025 ▶ 25:39 Could LLMs Be The Route To Superintelligence? — With Mustafa Suleyman
Nov 12, 2025 neutral
Disclosure
Suleyman: Microsoft is power-constrained on AI inference, not training
“Well, I think what he was referring to is that we have so much inference demand that we're power constrained on inference. We're not power constrained, at least from the Microsoft AI perspective on training chips. And obviously my team, you know, is mostly foc…”
Mustafa Suleyman Nov 12, 2025 ▶ 14:04 Could LLMs Be The Route To Superintelligence? — With Mustafa Suleyman
Nov 12, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Suleyman: Copilot Surpasses 100 Million Users Across All Surfaces
“Our consumer product is growing from strength to strength. You know, we just crossed a hundred million. Wow. Across all our co-pilot surfaces.”
Mustafa Suleyman Nov 12, 2025 ▶ 33:13 Could LLMs Be The Route To Superintelligence? — With Mustafa Suleyman
Nov 12, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Suleyman: 80% of the S&P 500 runs on Microsoft Azure and M365
“So the idea that a three trillion dollar company with three hundred billion dollars of revenue and 80% of the S&P 500 on our Azure stack and M three five stack you know, could depend on a third party. This it's, you know, just in perpetuity. It doesn't make se…”
Mustafa Suleyman Nov 12, 2025 ▶ 28:02 Could LLMs Be The Route To Superintelligence? — With Mustafa Suleyman
Nov 17, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Luria: Roughly half of Microsoft's AI revenue comes from OpenAI
“Half of their AI revenue approximately which is again, a big piece of the Azure growth, which is the biggest piece of Microsoft's growth, is coming from OpenAI.”
Gil Luria Nov 17, 2025 ▶ 40:10 AI Bubble Special Report: Debt, Depreciation, and Losses — With Gil Luria
Nov 17, 2025 bearish
Assertion Partly supported
Luria: OpenAI promised $1.4 trillion across Oracle, Microsoft, Amazon, CoreWeave
“OpenAI promised me three hundred billion. They also promised Microsoft two hundred billion, Amazon thirty eight billion, CoreWeave twenty five billion. In total, 1.4 trillion dollars.”
Gil Luria Nov 17, 2025 ▶ 9:52 AI Bubble Special Report: Debt, Depreciation, and Losses — With Gil Luria
Nov 17, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Luria: Hyperscalers will buy bankrupt AI data centers for pennies
“So if I'm Microsoft, I know that in two or three years, I probably won't have to do any capex because I'll be able to buy data centers out of bankruptcy for pennies on the dollar.”
Gil Luria Nov 17, 2025 ▶ 55:03 AI Bubble Special Report: Debt, Depreciation, and Losses — With Gil Luria
Nov 17, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Luria: Three-year GPU depreciation would drastically cut Oracle and CoreWeave profits
“If you told Amazon and Microsoft, and certainly if you told companies like Oracle and CoreWeave, no, no, no, no. These chips will only generate meaningful revenue for three years. Their profitability would decline very dramatically. So again, from Microsoft, A…”
Gil Luria Nov 17, 2025 ▶ 22:25 AI Bubble Special Report: Debt, Depreciation, and Losses — With Gil Luria
Nov 17, 2025 positive
Opinion
Luria: Hyperscaler AI capex is sound because balance sheets back it
“The healthy behavior are reasonable, thoughtful business leaders like the ones at Microsoft, Amazon, and Google that are making sound investments in growing the capacity to deliver AI. And the reason they can make sound investments is that they have all the cu…”
Gil Luria Nov 17, 2025 ▶ 3:45 AI Bubble Special Report: Debt, Depreciation, and Losses — With Gil Luria
Nov 24, 2025 bullish
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Alphabet has surpassed Microsoft in market cap at $3.59 trillion
“Google today surpassed Microsoft in market cap. I mean, they're still both doing great. 3.59 trillion or so to 3.5 trillion.”
Alex Kantrowitz Nov 24, 2025 ▶ 10:15 Google Pushes OpenAI, Bezos Returns, AI’s No. 1 Hit
Dec 1, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Siegler: Microsoft owns 27% of OpenAI but is no longer lead partner
“Microsoft owns 27% of the company, but they're not their main capital partner anymore.”
M.G. Siegler Dec 1, 2025 ▶ 50:22 Tim Cook’s Final Year?, Big Tech Horse Race, Anthropic’s Profitability Push
Dec 22, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Roy: Microsoft extracts enterprise lock-in value rather than building great AI
“All of these things I think are showing that they're just trying to kind of extract value versus have the best product and experience for their customers, which is going to be interesting to see how that plays out.”
Ranjan Roy Dec 22, 2025 ▶ 39:52 OpenAI’s Potential, Google’s Speedy Model, Copilot Hits Turbulence
Dec 23, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Cramer: Microsoft Is an Unstoppable Freight Train and OpenAI Won't Derail It
“Yeah, but they won't. I like that. It's a freight train. What do you think? It's like the fugitive? There is no train coming at the freight train. I think that Microsoft is the freight train.”
Jim Cramer Dec 23, 2025 ▶ 16:07 CNBC's Jim Cramer: Big Tech Hot Takes, NVIDIA $10 Trillion?, Building Wealth In Any Market
Jan 7, 2026 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Intrator: No single customer accounts for over 30% of CoreWeave backlog
“There's no customer that represents more than 30% of our backlog, and so we've done an incredible job.”
Michael Intrator Jan 7, 2026 ▶ 6:18 Coreweave: AI Bubble Poster Child Or The Next Tech Giant? — With Michael Intrator and Brian Venturo
Jan 7, 2026
Assertion Supported
Intrator: Google is building $50B in infrastructure while buying external capacity
“Google went out and just You know, released a press release where they're building fifty billion dollars worth of infrastructure while they're still buying from everyone else they can. Microsoft is building internally, and they're buying from lots of other pla…”
Michael Intrator Jan 7, 2026 ▶ 20:19 Coreweave: AI Bubble Poster Child Or The Next Tech Giant? — With Michael Intrator and Brian Venturo
Jan 7, 2026 positive
Disclosure
Intrator: CoreWeave fully amortizes debt and profits within 5-year contracts
“Within the five years of the contracted period with Microsoft, we pay for the infrastructure, we pay for the OPEX, we pay for the interest, and we earn an enormous margin on the infrastructure.”
Michael Intrator Jan 7, 2026 ▶ 27:51 Coreweave: AI Bubble Poster Child Or The Next Tech Giant? — With Michael Intrator and Brian Venturo
Jan 7, 2026
Assertion Partly supported
Venturo: Hyperscalers ran NVIDIA K80 fleets for 10 years before retiring them
“Last year is when we saw let's call it the hyperscalers that were around in the twenty-tenths, so Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, finally retire their NVIDIA K-eighty fleets, and the K-eighty was a GPU that was introduced in 2014. So it's, it was active in thei…”
Brian Venturo Jan 7, 2026 ▶ 42:16 Coreweave: AI Bubble Poster Child Or The Next Tech Giant? — With Michael Intrator and Brian Venturo
Jan 13, 2026 negative
What-if
Siegler: Microsoft missed its chance to turn Bing into ChatGPT
“It was a huge missed opportunity. They could have made being a real potential competitor to Google and In some ways they, you know, they were probably too early, I'm sure. And they stubbed their toe and they pulled back... But still they were there and they co…”
M.G. Siegler Jan 13, 2026 ▶ 37:35 AI’s Steve Jobs?, Big Tech AI Chaos, 2026 Crystal Ball
Jan 13, 2026 negative
Opinion
Kantrowitz: Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, and Meta lack standout AI products
“What standout product does AI product does Microsoft have outside of selling AI services from Azure? What standout product does Amazon, AI product does Amazon have outside of selling some AI with AWS. What standout AI product does Apple have? We both know that…”
Alex Kantrowitz Jan 13, 2026 ▶ 36:08 AI’s Steve Jobs?, Big Tech AI Chaos, 2026 Crystal Ball
Feb 2, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Morris: Microsoft on track for $140B CapEx this fiscal year
“Microsoft is on track to spend a hundred and forty billion this fiscal year, which their fiscal year is a bit weird. It runs from to June instead of to December. And that's pretty much with on track with what they spent in the last quarter of last year, which …”
Stephen Morris Feb 2, 2026 ▶ 26:54 The Anthropic Rocketship, AI’s Spending Limits, SpaceX IPO
Feb 2, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Morris: Microsoft disclosed 45% of future Azure contracts are tied to OpenAI
“They revealed that they booked ten billion cash gain from the amount of cash OpenAI has on this balance sheet due to all these, like, huge fundraisings that they're doing. But they also said that 45% of their future Azure contracts were based on OpenAI.”
Stephen Morris Feb 2, 2026 ▶ 27:27 The Anthropic Rocketship, AI’s Spending Limits, SpaceX IPO
Feb 2, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Morris: Microsoft Owns 27% of Restructured OpenAI
“Microsoft is going to put a few billion in we here, but you know, not too much more because obviously they already own 27% of the restructured company.”
Stephen Morris Feb 2, 2026 ▶ 15:31 The Anthropic Rocketship, AI’s Spending Limits, SpaceX IPO
Feb 2, 2026 bullish
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Microsoft and Nvidia committed up to $15B into Anthropic
“Microsoft and Nvidia this is according to your story, have committed to invest a total of up to fifteen billion in the company.”
Alex Kantrowitz Feb 2, 2026 ▶ 6:54 The Anthropic Rocketship, AI’s Spending Limits, SpaceX IPO
Feb 3, 2026 negative
Opinion
Siegler: Microsoft's heavy-handed response to Sydney hampered its AI momentum
“Microsoft maybe shot themselves in the foot because they put the foot down like so hard and sort of made it sure that no one could do anything like the Sydney situation again, because it got so much negative press for them, obviously, but in a way that probabl…”
M.G. Siegler Feb 3, 2026 ▶ 16:37 The Moltbook Uprising, NVIDIA’s OpenAI Pullback, Apple’s Conundrum
Feb 3, 2026 bearish
Insight
Siegler: Microsoft and Amazon back multiple AI labs to stop Google
“I think these other major cloud players, at least the ones who have the rival clouds, specifically Microsoft and Amazon realize that yeah, they probably need to align around basically anyone who's not Google, right? They don't necessarily care if it, I mean, t…”
M.G. Siegler Feb 3, 2026 ▶ 35:58 The Moltbook Uprising, NVIDIA’s OpenAI Pullback, Apple’s Conundrum
Mar 23, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Microsoft may sue OpenAI over Amazon investment, Reuters reports
“So there's reporting from Reuters that Microsoft may sue OpenAI over their fifty billion dollar investment from Amazon, and because it could violate the exclusive cloud agreement that they had they had set a number of years ago that, like, all OpenAI products …”
Ranjan Roy Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 11:08 OpenAI’s Superapp Is Coming, Jensen on Jobs, Bezos’s $100 Billion Automation Fund
Apr 13, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Anthropic Is Giving Microsoft Mythos Only to Test, Not Resell
“Anthropic isn't giving Microsoft mythos to sell through Azure. It's giving Microsoft mythos to test.”
Alex Kantrowitz Apr 13, 2026 ▶ 22:27 Anthropic’s Mythos Dilemma, Violence Against AI, Tokenmaxxing at Meta
Apr 13, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Anthropic previews Mythos model to around 50 critical infrastructure organizations
“The company is making a preview model of its new AI model called Mythos, available to about 50 companies and organizations that maintain critical infrastructure, including Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, and the Linux Foundation.”
Alex Kantrowitz Apr 13, 2026 ▶ 1:59 Anthropic’s Mythos Dilemma, Violence Against AI, Tokenmaxxing at Meta
Apr 13, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Saint-Marc: Future Enterprise Agent Swarms Will Be Deeply Heterogeneous
“As complexity is growing, and as we, again, as I said before, we asymptotically start to progress towards something we can call superintelligence, It's going to be very heterogeneous, very different types of agents, different vendors, different clouds, differe…”
Guillaume de Saint-Marc Apr 13, 2026 ▶ 24:58 How AI Agent Swarms Might Be AI's Next Leap — With Guillaume de Saint-Marc
Apr 20, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Microsoft Is Participating in Anthropic's Project Glasswing
“Microsoft's in this in this you know, Project Glass Wing. They're big investors in OpenAI.”
Alex Kantrowitz Apr 20, 2026 ▶ 34:40 Jensen On The Ropes, Sam Altman’s Conflicts, Allbirds’ GPU Pivot
May 5, 2026 positive
Opinion
Siegler: Apple Made the Right Bet Partnering on Search Over Building Bing
“Apple decided they didn't need to build a search engine, and that's worked out great for them, right? Microsoft famously has spent billions and billions building up Bing, and what have they gotten out of it? I mean, it makes money now, but it's not Google, and…”
M.G. Siegler May 5, 2026 ▶ 10:58 Did Apple Get AI Spending Right?, Microsoft & OpenAI’s New Reality, Where’s Stargate?
May 5, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Microsoft has secured OpenAI IP rights through 2032
“And basically Microsoft has access to OpenAI's IP till 2032, and that is the state of the partnership today.”
Alex Kantrowitz May 5, 2026 ▶ 36:12 Did Apple Get AI Spending Right?, Microsoft & OpenAI’s New Reality, Where’s Stargate?
May 5, 2026 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Siegler: Amazon and Google Guide Toward $190 Billion in Annual CapEx
“Amazon and Google are, I think are both guiding towards a hundred and ninety billion now. and that's, this gets updated every single quarter. So they very well could spend well over two hundred billion for what ends up being the year, and Microsoft will be ri…”
M.G. Siegler May 5, 2026 ▶ 5:25 Did Apple Get AI Spending Right?, Microsoft & OpenAI’s New Reality, Where’s Stargate?
May 5, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Siegler: OpenAI owes Microsoft rev share even on AWS and Google
“While Microsoft no longer has to pay revenue share back to open AI still has to pay it to Microsoft and they have to pay it even when they're using AWS or potentially Google in the future.”
M.G. Siegler May 5, 2026 ▶ 40:22 Did Apple Get AI Spending Right?, Microsoft & OpenAI’s New Reality, Where’s Stargate?
May 5, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Siegler: OpenAI products must ship first on Azure under deal terms
“Microsoft remains open as primary cloud partner. And open AI products will ship first on Azure, unless Microsoft cannot and chooses not to support the necessary capabilities.”
M.G. Siegler May 5, 2026 ▶ 42:13 Did Apple Get AI Spending Right?, Microsoft & OpenAI’s New Reality, Where’s Stargate?
May 11, 2026 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Satya Nadella will throw OpenAI under the bus during lawsuit testimony
“I think Satya is going to fully throw open AI under the bus.”
Alex Kantrowitz May 11, 2026 ▶ 43:37 The Unlikely Anthropic & SpaceX Marriage, OpenAI Trial Revelations, AI Layoffs Or Cope?
May 18, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Court texts show Microsoft CTO Kevin Scott offered to join OpenAI board
“This is from the court documents in a text thread. Where Kevin Scott is where all these folks, Kevin Scott, Satya, Sam are suggesting who should be on the OpenAI board in the future, and then Kevin Scott chimes in with this one. I can quit for six months and d…”
Alex Kantrowitz May 18, 2026 ▶ 23:20 Satya Nadella’s OpenAI Concerns, Google’s Next AI Model, The AI Monet Prank
May 18, 2026 positive
Opinion
Roy: Google feels more AI-native than Microsoft despite flawed Gmail integration
“Certainly Google has a more AI native feel the way even ask questions in maps. Even again, we've talked about this at length that Gemini and Gmail still kind of sucks, but like they still feel more AI native than Microsoft.”
Ranjan Roy May 18, 2026 ▶ 14:46 Satya Nadella’s OpenAI Concerns, Google’s Next AI Model, The AI Monet Prank
May 18, 2026 bullish
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Pershing Square built a new stake in Microsoft in February
“Bill Ackman's taken a new stake in Microsoft to bet that the software giant's investments in AI aren't reflected in the company's slumping share prices. Ackman said that Pershing had started building the position in Microsoft in February after the company's sh…”
Alex Kantrowitz May 18, 2026 ▶ 16:10 Satya Nadella’s OpenAI Concerns, Google’s Next AI Model, The AI Monet Prank
May 18, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Azure grows 40% quarterly while Google Cloud grows 62%
“Even though Azure has grown 40% a quarter, which is absurd, I guess, until you start to think that Google's grown 62% a quarter, albeit on a smaller base,”
Alex Kantrowitz May 18, 2026 ▶ 11:32 Satya Nadella’s OpenAI Concerns, Google’s Next AI Model, The AI Monet Prank
May 18, 2026 bearish
Opinion
Kantrowitz: Microsoft squandered its massive OpenAI competitive advantage
“It's got a 27% stake in OpenAI, and otherwise it's completely squandered this advantage.”
Alex Kantrowitz May 18, 2026 ▶ 9:45 Satya Nadella’s OpenAI Concerns, Google’s Next AI Model, The AI Monet Prank
May 25, 2026 bearish
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Microsoft Plans to Cancel Claude Code Licenses for Copilot CLI
“Microsoft, according to the verge, Starts canceling cloud code license licenses. Microsoft first started opening up access to cloud code in December. It was part of an effort to get product manager, project managers, designers, and other employees to experimen…”
Alex Kantrowitz May 25, 2026 ▶ 27:39 Is OpenAI Ready To IPO?, The Datacenters in Space Myth, The Kids Boo AI
Jun 2, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Microsoft and Oracle Pipelines Heavily Depend on OpenAI Commitments
“Microsoft had four, has 49% Of its 62, six hundred twenty seven billion future backlog tied to OpenAI. Oracle is 54% of its five hundred and fifty three billion pipeline, depending on OpenAI alone.”
Alex Kantrowitz Jun 2, 2026 ▶ 33:47 Warning Signs For The AI Boom, Anthropic Passes OpenAI, Robinhood’s AI Trading
Jun 8, 2026
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Microsoft holds rights to all OpenAI intellectual property through 2032
“He has all their IP till 2032, so.”
Alex Kantrowitz Jun 8, 2026 ▶ 53:03 Did Apple (Finally) Get AI Right At WWDC?, Anthropic’s Worry, Microsoft vs. OpenAI
Jun 8, 2026 negative
Opinion
Roy: Microsoft should not attempt to build foundational AI models
“So, so if I'm Microsoft, I actually agree. I don't think that's the right approach. I think like, you know what? Let them all battle it out.”
Ranjan Roy Jun 8, 2026 ▶ 50:42 Did Apple (Finally) Get AI Right At WWDC?, Anthropic’s Worry, Microsoft vs. OpenAI
Jul 1, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Brockman: No layer of the AI stack will lose value capture
“Well, look, I don't think that there's any layer of the stack here that is going to just kind of be removed from the value chain. I think that these things multiplied together.”
Greg Brockman Jul 1, 2026 ▶ 34:47 OpenAI President Greg Brockman: Our Plan To Merge Chat And Agents
Jul 6, 2026 negative
Opinion
Siegler: Google and Microsoft have weaker product execution than OpenAI in AI
“I feel like that I have less faith that Google can do it because they have all sorts of sort of product issues when they roll something out great technical capabilities, but product issues, Microsoft, I have even less faith in for obvious reasons regarding pro…”
M.G. Siegler Jul 6, 2026 ▶ 20:16 Who Wins The AI Superapp Battle?, Apple’s Consumer AI Victory, World Cup Automation Mistake
Jul 6, 2026 bearish
Opinion
Kantrowitz: Microsoft went from leading AI to flailing in two years
“They are, they have gone, I've never seen a company go from confident and leading to like behind and flailing in, what was it? Two years?”
Alex Kantrowitz Jul 6, 2026 ▶ 46:21 Who Wins The AI Superapp Battle?, Apple’s Consumer AI Victory, World Cup Automation Mistake
Jul 6, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: Microsoft Is Merging Consumer and Enterprise Copilot Apps
“Microsoft is now emerging its consumer and enterprise co-pilot apps. Into a new unified app that will feature AI coding tools and new AI agents that customers would need to pay extra for.”
Alex Kantrowitz Jul 6, 2026 ▶ 1:57 Who Wins The AI Superapp Battle?, Apple’s Consumer AI Victory, World Cup Automation Mistake
Jul 20, 2026 neutral
Insight
Khoshniyati: Early IoT era was an 'Internet of Devices', not things
“Internet of Things, when it launched, and it was before the COVID times, it excited everybody, but truly the understanding of it really wasn't stabilized yet. So everyone was using the coin term, But the reality was we were just moving from every type of devic…”
Amir Khoshniyati Jul 20, 2026 ▶ 1:44 Inside The Rise of Physical AI — With Amir Khoshniyati
Jul 27, 2026 positive
Opinion
Kantrowitz: An OpenAI failure would harm tech industry momentum
“I think it would be bad for them to fail, right? If you think about all the energy in AI, a lot of it has been sparked by open AI, right? Like, Google, Google missed you know, the chat bot moment, and only entered because of You know, ChatGPT, and sort of, you…”
Alex Kantrowitz Jul 27, 2026 ▶ 44:47 What Happens If AI Fails?, Subprime Data Center Crisis, How Bad Can SpaceX Get?
Aug 5, 2026 bullish
Insight
Cahn: Microsoft wins whether frontier AI models succeed or commoditize
“Microsoft's distribution machine is amazing. So it, Microsoft benefits, if OpenAI and the labs win, and it's all frontier models, and it's not commoditized, he owns a lot of that. He's going to do great. If they get to AGI, great. Like owning 20% of AGI is pre…”
David Cahn Aug 5, 2026 ▶ 50:09 How The AI Bet Pays Off + AI Lab Strategy Game — With David Cahn
Aug 10, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Microsoft Shifted CapEx to OpEx by Extending Data Center Leases
“In this quarter, they decided that they were going to basically change the way that they account for their data center leases. And so historically they've actually Considered them to be 15 years. And that basically meant that they were you know, taking on the …”
M.G. Siegler Aug 10, 2026 ▶ 33:31 Demis Steps Down, Apple’s Memory Problem, Microsoft’s Clever Trick
Aug 10, 2026 bearish
Assertion Supported
Siegler: Michael Burry Shorts Tech Over Server Depreciation Accounting
“Michael Burry you know, famously from Big Short has sort of talked about this as a reason why he's shorting a lot of these companies, because he believes that they're sort of doing funny money, funny math on, on a lot of these a lot of these schedules for Micr…”
M.G. Siegler Aug 10, 2026 ▶ 38:29 Demis Steps Down, Apple’s Memory Problem, Microsoft’s Clever Trick
Aug 10, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Siegler: OpenAI and Anthropic will eventually build their own clouds
“Even if down the road, like those two actually do make it out and you know, break out on their own and become two of the new you know, tech behemoths that are public companies, they will eventually obviously just have their own clouds. They're not going to be,…”
M.G. Siegler Aug 10, 2026 ▶ 43:39 Demis Steps Down, Apple’s Memory Problem, Microsoft’s Clever Trick
Sep 2, 2026 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Prince: Google Crawls 2x More Web Content Than OpenAI
“Google, to give you some sense of these, more than two times as much of the web as open AI More than four times as much as Anthropic, more than five times as much as Microsoft.”
Matthew Prince Sep 2, 2026 ▶ 27:32 Cloudflare CEO: We're Ready To Block Millions of Websites From AI — With Matthew Prince
Sep 9, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Siegler: OpenAI no longer has an AGI clause with Microsoft
“OpenAI, as noted, no longer has the AGI clause with Microsoft, so they can sort of do whatever they want now, and just declare AGI here, here, or there, and it doesn't impact anything beyond public perception”
M.G. Siegler Sep 9, 2026 ▶ 53:44 Apple’s Folding Phone "Duo" Is Here + OpenAI vs. Google vs. Anthropic Revisited — With M.G. Siegler
Sep 9, 2026 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Siegler: Microsoft has not released any frontier AI models
“Microsoft has played it, right? Like they obviously famously had the open AI deal in place. They sort of renegotiated that and that, you know, all the talk was that that would unlock them to go after the frontier. There is talk that they are, you know, they've…”
M.G. Siegler Sep 9, 2026 ▶ 48:49 Apple’s Folding Phone "Duo" Is Here + OpenAI vs. Google vs. Anthropic Revisited — With M.G. Siegler
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