Mustafa Suleyman, CEO of Microsoft AI, describes the terms of Microsoft's renegotiated partnership contract with OpenAI.
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Suleyman: AGI is not 2-3 years away, likely a decade away
“It doesn't instinctively feel to me like we're two to three years away. I know some people think that it is, and I respect them deeply. Like a lot of smart people can disagree on stuff like that. I feel like we're still a good decade or so away. And when a sci…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Suleyman: AI Training Is Not Data-Constrained Due To Synthetic Data
“We are not data constrained right now, we're generating vast amounts of high quality synthetic data, which is proving to be useful.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Suleyman: Species-Replacing Recursive AI Takeoff Is Unlikely In Next Decade
“That we don't want to bundle together all these capabilities so that there's a higher risk of a, you know, recursively self-improving exponential takeoff that then replaces our species, and I think that that is very low probability from what I see today, but i…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2030
Suleyman: AI task horizons will soon reach hundreds of thousands of steps
“And the other one is the sort of length of a task horizon that can be predicted. So at the moment it's like a few steps, but soon it will be tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of steps accurately. And that will mean that a model can like use APIs or quer…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Suleyman: Synthetic Data And Human Feedback Will Outweigh Robotics Data
“I don't think in the next few years it's gonna be the big differentiator. I think that more synthetic data, more human feedback and high quality data is gonna be the differentiator.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2028
Suleyman: AI data and training pipelines will become fully closed-loop within years
“So, it doesn't seem very far-fetched to say that in a few years time, at significant scale, That will get closed loop. And, you know, it'll be interesting to see you know, what happens and whether the quality bar can be maintained and whether performance does …”