AI

“I think the most important breakthroughs has been the ability to read and write DNA. The new ability to actually manipulate and edit DNA. And then I think the convergence of tech and computational sciences and artificial intelligence, machine learning with bio…”

“We're never going to beat China at top-down control. That's how they're doing. Quantum computing, AI, other areas. But I think we can beat them with more innovative business and being a way better country for attracting talent.”

“It's hard for me to imagine that AI will not play a meaningful impact in medicine. I don't think it will be on the time scale that People talk about it. I think people talk about it like, oh, we're just two years away from this.”

“Frankly, the AMA and the doctors groups do all sorts of things to stop the AI from being allowed to work with nurses. Even if a nurse plus AI is better than a doctor, they'll ban it, right? And they'll pass laws.”

“There are areas where it's already making a difference in radiology, for example, it's already making a difference.”

“I don't think AI is going to be able to motivate you. I think there's going to be great leaders that are going to, well, maybe it will be able to motivate you, but I think AI will be great at diagnosing where you need to improve. So I think that combination of…”

“There's a, just an attempt to dampen AI and its utilization by people who don't have a product, and that is like, this is actually a big deal inside and outside of government.”

“The most powerful use of our product currently, and again, of one of our products is Being able to identify an adversary over a large lying mass using AI, and that obviously it's been reported has led to a different level of ability to acquire the adversary's …”

“Increased technology and a particular AI should basically actually make it possible to be more human. You should be able to spend more of your life doing things that are human in, in their nature and human in the sense of fulfillment, as opposed to doing the t…”

“AI is like gonna create a whole new set of dreams of state power, and like I said, the Chinese have one version of that, but, you know, on the far left even in the US, you have this idea the, there's a book called Fully Automated Luxury Communism which is this…”

“And my, the point in that essay is what Joe just said, which is like, it will be illegal to do that. Like, it's not going to happen because it's going to be illegal. Like AIs are not going to get certified as doctors and lawyers anytime soon. Like that, that I…”

“What this does is it empowers small groups so dramatically to be more productive as well as the asymmetric nature of like success in warfare, that is actually empower smaller city states yet again.”

“There's now an attempt to apply that, that, that, that ethos or that rule for AI, which I think would be another catastrophic mistake.”

“Arguably this swings AI swings very much the advantage of the defender over the attacker, and I think maybe we're already seeing that play out in Ukraine... My guess is this tilts in the direction of defense and therefore in the direction of probably actually …”

“I think Dota two is the last one.”

“I think I don't want my kids using it for their homework, but what I want is I want teachers figuring out how to make homework that It requires you to use AI.”

“You know, the interesting thing about AI is, in the end, it's going to be limited by things like power. You know, if you're, and, you know, chips, and if you're trying to build these really massive clusters in 10 years or whatever.”

“Robotics are probably going to need AI to write that, to figure out how to build robots for us.”

“If this is as big as we all think it will be, this will play out like the internet did over decades, not months.”

“I think AI, or I like to talk about augmented intelligence, will be more important to humanity. Then the first three super cycles I've lived through, which are internet, mobile, and cloud. I think it'll be bigger, and so I don't buy that thesis.”

“Its entire portfolio is already being transformed with AI.”

“I actually do think AI at some point makes the markets melt up if it actually does what you and I think with productivity, which means we need everyone aligned with them.”

“AI is moving on a timescale of month to month, week to week, and, you know, regulations are on a few-year timescale at best put together, and that's just too slow of a feedback loop, and it's too heavy-handed, and it's probably not the way forward.”

“People wouldn't pay for an AI that's unaligned, doesn't do what you say, and is nefarious, right? They would pay for an AI that does, you know, is a good worker, let's say is aligned and is reliable, right? And if the, you know, the person or the company that …”

“The next wave of AI, which is going to produce mass efficiency, mass knowledge dissemination nowhere but here. You know, we're going to have the first of everything in this new platform that's building. If you thought about the last platform as the iPhone and …”

“Effective altruism is obviously a great idea. And they're very, very much in the same wavelength as what we are. But my senses are we often disagree because see, they have sort of gone off on this more interesting rich world trend of saying, oh, but the big th…”

“Productivity is income saved by companies that use AI and income lost by the workers that they no longer have to hire. You know, it's a force that redistributes income within the economy”

“There's going to be probably even companies that are built just like new services companies that all they do is deploy AI in the enterprise. Then I think we have a role over there as well as the solution they would use to accelerate those deployments.”

“I think what people are really misunderstanding is what is going to be the end product. And I think the end product is units of cognition. Right. You're going to be effectively paying for or renting something that's going to think or do things on your behalf.”

“I think in the 2.1 trillion that we think could be addressed right now, stuff like healthcare billing, logistics billing, auditing, whatever, legal, some legal stuff, we think already you can at least double the productivity, which would be kind of a trillion …”

“There'd be like three eras of mankind in terms of, or three eras of intelligence, right? And the first era is basically people. And the second era is some hybrid era where it's a you know, if you look at the number of intelligence units or whatever you want to…”

“AI is in my opinion, dramatically under hyped right now. And I think part of that is number one, we're seeing massive actual revenue and impact without that much adoption, right?”

“And across hundreds of CTOs, the answer has been zero. No one thinks it's actually going to replace.”

“The junior mid-level engineers are able to be a lot more efficient, feel like they're able to actually learn by having the AI suggest code. So I'm seeing it a little bit more of the opposite that it's actually Up-leveling a lot of the mid-level engineers, the …”

“Already there's a lot of industries Where like, 20% or even 50% of people's time and action is, is in some ways dictated by the computer.”

“There's a huge decentralized training run that I think prime intellect did recently that, you know, shows that the assumptions everyone has about how AI is just going to be a centralized thing could be wrong.”

“I think this third area is like the lowest IQ area of these four, which is the regulators basically responding to every challenge with rules that just stifle new things way ahead of time.”

“Human brain works on glucose. There's only so much glucose to go around. We're biologically wired to be passive. So AI presents this very interesting, sinister. It's very good in the sense that it can offload plausibly everything, but it's bad in the sense tha…”

“We don't actually use screens very much, because I'm a little bit afraid of the interactions with them, and like what, you know, I see a lot of this AI design as it is right now, as like, it's a form of drug in some sense, right? Because basically it's trying …”

“The other thing that I think is concerning is it could create a hall of mirrors culture where everyone has a kind of a self curated reality.”

“We see many governments, believe it or not, that are actually using AI in some cases ahead of certain companies.”

“I think that in the near future, of course, you're going to have a higher risk of Bad guys with using AI, you know, to do things like manufacturing scary bioweapons things like that, that you really, you know, things that could really kill a billion people.”

“That could be changing, like, Next decade. Like in our lifetimes.”

“No, if it's something like really bad AI, it doesn't seem like AI would have, and they wanted to wipe us out. It doesn't seem like being on multiple planets in the solar system would really help.”

“That if AI can start moving up in intelligence, it's not going to stop at the human intelligence station. It's going to just race right by us because all of these limitations that our intelligence has”

“Once AI becomes super intelligent, which should occur in like 20, 26 or something like that. If it hasn't already, I'm not kidding. I'm not saying this very soon. Once it's super intelligent and then by 20, 29, it's going to be like orders of magnitude smarter…”

“As everyone gets wealthier, and the problems of the world are beginning to be more tractable. AI is helping a lot there. I think there's going to be a turn inwards to where people want to look better, feel better, live longer, be healthier, and also work on th…”

“As a system is incremented up in intelligence and gets to human levels, high human levels, and then superhuman levels, alignment almost completely resolves itself.”

“Maybe you can replace them with AI, or maybe you can replace them without AI, and just use the AI can be completely fake, and we can improve things tremendously.”

“You know, I'd actually argue that AI is kind of like mobile. It's not disruptive. It's great tech to be clear. It's important, but just as the internet, I would say that just as like mobile was just More internet and pervasive internet. AI is just like more te…”

“I think that the balance in AI does just inherently swing a lot more technical. You know, it's, there are a lot of pure technical problems that if you can just solve these really, really hard problems, it is incredibly clear, you know, what happens and how you…”

“It's very obvious that AI can make these things a half, a third the cost for better outcomes, and yet every one of our states in this country Has very powerful provider and payer lobbies and has very powerful cartels that block competition.”

“This is one of those where oftentimes you think of like AI or products where it's like, yeah, get it out there and iterate. This is one of those where you're optimizing for the worst case, not the average case. This isn't search where you give some bogus resul…”

“A small number of years called three, five. How is assessment going to be done? It's going to be one-on-one oral interviews with AIs.”

“We have the best learning technology we have created in human history. It's more important than the book relative to a learning technology.”

“You probably know there's actually 1200 laws right now being proposed in the 50 states to try to regulate AI in different ways.”

“I think by the way, AI can help with that. Like AI can identify all of this, like duplicative regulation.”

“We think that as that approaches sort of unsustainable levels for people that are looking to do good work, for people that work in industry especially, that they're going to look for curated sources of information and for high quality work that humans are doin…”

“Is one, right now there's several million unfilled vocational jobs, and every time, for example, a new technology comes out that automates something for construction, it also creates massive more demand for construction. So right now, so far, the AI is actuall…”

“So when people make the argument, well, Yes. It will replace these jobs, but it will create more jobs. I go, yeah, except that it can do those new jobs as well.”

“So, very, very, very, very, very soon, we are going to find ourselves in a reality where AI, coupled with robotics, can essentially do every job. Not just the jobs we don't want to do. It can do any job and every job, even the jobs that we really like to do.”

“Because of AI, because of the technology that we have in front of us right now, the idea of a 40,000 student campus to me is completely broken. Why would you sit in a class with 300 people? Where, you know, you can engage with a bot and teach you probably bett…”

“For example, New York State right now currently bans any use of AI and these things, so your apps actually are not allowed there as far as I understand.”

“A few of my friends are worried about the AI learning their own language that we can't understand, because there's probably a natural way for them to communicate that's better than our language, and it looks like it might already starting to be trying to learn…”

“When we taught AI to play chess, the way it learns, if you start it from just knowing nothing, and it plays against itself billions of times throughout a day, it actually goes through some of the more popular historical openings that people were liked too, and…”

“Some of actually the Israelis who work with him and some of my friends had built him technology for a whole country that, that would make permitting only take a 120 minutes. And so they're actually making the rule where when you try to get a permit in this cou…”

“I do believe all this amazing AI technology is people, I think people's lifespans are going to increase exponentially. Not until like 200 years, but we're not going to be living to 75, but we're going to be more commonly living to a hundred or a 105. There'll …”

“And I actually think AI is going to make healthcare a lot cheaper if we let it compete.”

“And I think it's an emphatic, no, it's not a bubble. Probably it's still a little underhyped.”

“There's five key things that AI is good at. Like, these are the tasks. You can add one more now, computer use, but you think AI is good at multi-turn conversations, document understanding, structured output, Search and reasoning. If you can break a workflow do…”

“I think it's going to be incredibly disruptive, but positive, create incredible amounts of wealth. You know, a lot of Sectors are going to get much more efficient. There's like very bold cases where it's massively deflationary.”

“And this is the second time in my career where everyone's sort of kind of getting back to equal footing, and so young people who are just getting into their careers just starting are on equal ground with people like me, people like you who have spent 10, 2030 …”

“So, if it works for humans, it's going to work with AI, and so you're going to get not one or two or five calls, it's going to be 10,000, a 100,000.”

“I think there'll have to be something where yeah, humans Essentially verify themselves.”

“I think a lot of jobs will be deleted. And I think it'll be on entrepreneurs and founders and investors to create new opportunities for people. So I think we're entering a very interesting time where there, it is industrial revolution times the hundred speed, …”

“For us, and this has always been the case for us, you know, our interview process has always been, you can use as much AI as you want to use. You know, it's just like, we're going to give you a few hours, just build, build your whole own product surface, right…”

“One thing I'll go on the record on is I think there's going to be an explosion in small businesses. I think AI is actually like an extremely small business enabling technology in particular”

“I think in AI, what you see is that really excelling on the technical aspect just matters much more, I think, in AI than some of these other fields, and I think there's been lots and lots of businesses in the past that have been very, I'll say, like very inten…”

“You know, so, so funnily enough, I think recently we had this whole Cetrini piece come out which I thought was frankly ridiculous. I mean, I think it's, I think it gets a lot of the basic economics wrong is maybe a simple way to put it.”

“I think in the age of AI, the physical world is the slowest link.”

“He's now able to build in an afternoon what would have previously taken him weeks or months.”

“A lot of people think of AI and they think of cost cutting and they're like, oh, we can really optimize our P and L. We can use AI, automate all these jobs, cut costs. That's not the right lens to look at small businesses. And it's not right for really one rea…”

“I think that there's going to be a lot of opportunity for innovation in, in automation around valuations, leveraging AI plus benchmarks, plus proprietary company data, as well as Public market comps and other.”

“I actually, one of the hacks That I really enjoy when I have free time is to ask the AI, like, what are the most interesting and important or cited papers or new papers or controversial papers in a field? And then explain these to me as if I only have an under…”

“What's tougher is feeding in a completely unknown document and having AI extracted well out of the unknown documents. We do that currently, but we use humans in the loop to make sure that we QA. It is not a fully solved problem yet. We think it will be in the …”

“I think like AI as a technical co-pilot for diligence is actually one of the most interesting use cases for AI. As an investor right now. I don't think it's a replacement for human experts necessarily, but it certainly is a huge help. If you're, if you come ac…”

“Because of AI, that's changing. It's cheaper for competitors to build software. It's cheaper for people to vibe code their own software. And it's also easier to migrate data because of AI agents. So I think switching costs have gone down. And so I think it's r…”

“I'm a little worried about the impact of AI on their BPO economy, so hopefully we can build some stuff with them.”

“With that being said, our software companies are better by a lot. I mean, it's, we are objectively leading in, in AI and in model development.”

“I think it bifurcates the skills a little bit. So the things that made a really good product manager, a good product manager then are only amplified. So deep understanding of the customer, ability to articulate your ideas to a team with varied skills. AI only …”

“What you're seeing in the headlines today is basically, Hey, AI is all that matters. Maybe defense matters because the world is becoming a slightly more volatile place, and energy matters as a derivative of AI. So if you're not already super exposed to those i…”

“We don't want to see AI impacting their moat. So if they have a network effect, a cost of capital advantage, a regulatory moat, Those things are not going to go away with AI. However, their operating costs should be falling off a cliff.”

“It seems to me the AIs are consistently fairer, less political, and less biased than the alternative sources of information.”

“I think that the economy in the, I think the 20 thirties are going to be the most, it's going to be the most booming decade in a hundred years. It's going to be one of those decades where there's so much opportunity created by all the new things that we can't …”

“The answer is, like, if you are, want to have a relationship with that person, then have a relationship with that person, right? Don't, like, put AI between you and somebody you want to have a relationship with.”

“All of our, all the emails that are, that we send are drafted by AI before we send them and a person reviews them and sends them out.”

“And I think if you're asking the question of like, how do we evaluate people on exactly the thing that AI can already do, that's kind of the wrong way.”

“And I think it's an emphatic, no, it's not a bubble. Probably it's still a little under hyped.”

“If you look at the Industrial Revolution in Russia in the early 20th century, I think investment as a percentage of GDP got up to 20 or 25%, and then China was investing 40 or 50% in their industrial revolution of GDP, and now in AI we're investing, like, thre…”

“I actually think one thing I'll go on the record on is I think there's gonna be an explosion in small businesses.”

“The day where a human would break in, and if you were 10 minutes behind the human on defense, you could stop the impact of a breach, is going to end. There's going to be an agent that breaks in, then another agent uploaded because it had remote code access, Re…”

“I think like a random PhD student in a garage is probably more danger with AI than anyone in these that we were serving within the department of war.”

“And I would say Epic Fury is a leapfrog in capability, but I think it also shows that there is another 10 X, hundred X to go that's illuminated by what's already been done here.”

“And the only kind of caveat is, like, that's going to probably take, like, 10 to 20 years. Not just because of model progress, but because of the rollout of all this.”

“What's funny is actually the accelerationists and the doomers sort of share roughly the same timeline, because they both think that AI is the, like, intelligence is the only thing that matters.”

“Diffusion actually is, like, your biggest rate limiter, and diffusion is, like, a human, Has to get the intelligence from the model plus probably their data, and then they have to go interact with the real world and do something in the real world, and then bri…”

“The main blocker the entire time has been the intelligence, not so much like the sort of mechanical ability.”