Assertion Partly supported
Cowen: University of Virginia lobbies regulators to block GMU degree programs
“To create a new course, I actually need approval through a committee that is attached to the state of Virginia and exists in Richmond... And furthermore, like University of Virginia, our competitor will lobby that committee not to approve like a new degree pro…”
Insight
Cowen: Men underestimate the smartest women by compressing female intelligence distributions
“And then when it comes to intelligence, men compress the distribution of female intelligence. So the smartest women are smarter than men think they are. Actually other women are better at judging the smartness of those women.”
Insight
Cowen: Men undervalue smart women by projecting male variance in conscientiousness
“Women on average are more conscientious than men, and men have a higher variance of conscientiousness. So the least conscientious men wreak more destruction and havoc, right? So women have lower variance of conscientiousness. That means if you find a smart wom…”
Opinion
Cowen: It is plausible for young people today to live to 130
“And the notion that a young person today might live to be 130 is not at all absurd. So I'm very bullish on the science.”
Opinion
Cowen: Biomedical companies are poor investments because value accrues to consumers
“I'm not necessarily bullish on biomedical companies as vehicles for earning money. A lot of regulation, sales in bio, healthcare arena can be very tough and very labor intensive. So maybe more of the gains accrue to consumers than is the case in a lot of secto…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Cowen: Clean Energy's Big Challenges Are Legal and NIMBYism, Not Science
“Batteries, solar, wind, the big problems will end up being the law, the NIMBYs, the regulators, not the science.”
Insight
Cowen: US cannot beat China at top-down control, must attract talent
“We're never going to beat China at top-down control. That's how they're doing. Quantum computing, AI, other areas. But I think we can beat them with more innovative business and being a way better country for attracting talent.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Cowen: Higher education will shift to modular GitHub-style credentials
“In an ideal world, I don't think we would have college as a four-year experience. It would be more like a GitHub page where you've been certified in different ways, online, offline, University of Austin. You took two classes at Princeton over the summer. You l…”
Insight
Cowen: Globalization Inherently Generates Higher Income Inequality
“There's gonna be a lot of inequality the more global is the world, right? Because you're selling iPhones, you know, everywhere, not just to the, your local city. So that's a fact. It's not going away.”
Insight
Cowen: Men over-index on personality quirks when evaluating women
“There's good evidence that when men evaluate women, they make a few mistakes. First, they assign too much attention to the personality of the woman. So women who are perceived as difficult to get on with, men tend to discriminate against. So a given personalit…”
Insight
Cowen: Men have higher variance in ambition than women
“More violent, more aggressive, but there are also more men who are highly extreme workaholics, right? So ambition has a higher variance in men.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Cowen: Crypto and Web3 will intensify competition across governments
“I think we're seeing more and more competition across governments, across countries and crypto and web. Three point now will intensify this greatly and it will be a good thing.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Cowen: Interstate competition will significantly improve productivity and governance
“And now that it's easier to move, this has all become more intense, and I think it will make an enormous positive difference for productivity and quality of governance, even within this country”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Cowen: Ireland is richer than Germany with a brighter future
“Now it's richer than Germany. It probably has a brighter future.”
Assertion Supported
Cowen: Fast Grants funded Yale's COVID test after its bureaucracy failed
“The spit test from Yale, that was a much quicker, much cheaper version of previous spit tests, like more than 10 x cheaper. We were funders of that at a time when the wealthy Yale University could not come up with the money because it was too bureaucratic.”
Insight
Cowen: The tenure process selects for extreme risk aversion
“The hoops you have to jump through to get tenure, it's so selecting for risk-averse.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Cowen: Cancel culture has maybe peaked, citing pushback in Virginia
“Cancel culture the negative side of woke culture is extraordinarily pernicious, but I also think it maybe has peaked, and you see this in my state of Virginia, Seemed to have become a totally blue state, and they elected a Republican governor.”
Insight
Cowen: Wokeness stems from 17th-century Protestantism and Puritan moralizing
“I see some of that, but I also see wokeness is stemming from 17th century Protestantism. And a certain kind of moralizing and part of the Puritans as well, basically.”
Opinion
Cowen: Biden Admin Has Been Less Damaging Than Feared, Wealth Tax Failed
“I thought Biden with the Democratic Congress would do more bad things than what they actually will do. There's a lot they're doing I don't like, but it could have been much worse, and things like the wealth tax, I mean, that failed.”
Assertion Supported
Cowen: Antidepressant Fluvoxamine Reduces COVID Hospitalizations by 30%
“There is an antidepressant called fluvoxamine. This is more relevant for poorer countries that can't afford vaccines. It's super cheap. Not many side effects of significance, and it seems to reduce hospitalization by 30%.”
Disclosure
Cowen: Emergent Ventures operates at two percent overhead without losing money
“We do this all at overhead of two percent without losing money.”
Insight
Cowen: Grant recipients gain more value from certification than money
“A lot of the value is not the money, but you get people the network. The certification is very valuable. And you encourage them to set their ambitions higher and be more aspirational. And most people, we found most of the value has not been the money.”
Tyler Cowen