The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 803 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Sinema: Most Gaza aid is siphoned off by Hamas
“We know that the majority of it is being siphoned off by Hamas and used as a weapon of war.”
Vance: Joint Chiefs disobeyed Trump on Syria troop redeployments
“The Joint Chiefs of Staff Didn't obey the president of the United States on troop redeployments in Syria, which actually happened during Trump's administration.”
Vance claims there are 25 million illegal immigrants in the US
“Because you have twenty-five million illegal aliens in this country, and you like, you can't fix what I would call the minor or sort of less important immigration question until you fix the real problem.”
Sacks: DOJ memo concluded Trump did not meet legal bar for January 6 incitement
“In the wake of January six, Merrick Garland's Justice Department did an analysis of whether Trump could be prosecuted for incitement, whether he incited that mob, and the legal memo came back, and they said, no, we don't have a case here. It does not meet the …”
RFK Jr.: EU Commissioner Thierry Breton ordered Elon Musk not to interview Trump
“Two weeks before that, you had this crazy European commissioner, Thierry Breton, saying that he ordering, ordering Elon Musk to not interview Donald Trump, a former president of the United States, the nominee of a, of one of the two major political parties”
RFK Jr.: Coca-Cola is the biggest financial supporter of NAACP
“I think Coca-Cola is the biggest supporter of NAACP”
Sacks: No net new US jobs created for native-born Americans in four years
“If you look at job creation over the last four years, there's been no net new job creation for native-born Americans. All the job creation has been foreign-born or-”
Sacks: Gold Star families will protest Tim Walz at campaign events
“If Walts doesn't drop from the ticket, I predict there'll be gold star families protesting all of their events, and that's gonna be a real headache from now till the election.”
Calacanis predicts a Biden cognitive decline whistleblower within 10 days
“A whistleblower will emerge in the next 10 days.”
Calacanis: Democrats will hold a 10-week, five-debate primary speed run
“They're going to do a democratic primary speed run. Here's what's going to happen. They're going to do five debates in 10 weeks. And then, whoever wins, wins.”
Chamath: Biden approved US private contractors fighting in Ukraine
“Biden actually approved Private contractors now going into Ukraine and starting to fight. Americans will be on the battlefield as of, I think this was just a few days ago.”
Sacks: Democrats are more likely than not to keep Biden on ticket
“Whoa. I think it's more likely than not that they're not going to replace Biden because the only feasible alternative is Harris and should be worse, and I think it's more dangerous for the country, frankly.”
Chamath: Zoom has 90% of its R&D and OpEx in China
“The Zoom example is a terrible, the Zoom example is a terrible one, and the reason is that P&L would have a hole blown on the side of it if they did not have 90% of their R&D and OpEx in China.”
Chamath predicts Biden will not serve out a full second term if re-elected
“I don't think Biden is going to step down at all, but I do think there's a chance A non-trivial chance that Biden wins. And if he does, I don't think he's going to make it four years.”
Sacks: US job growth is driven by public sector, not private
“The government is creating jobs like crazy, not in the private sector, but in the public sector, because it is an election year.”
Furin cleavage site proves SARS-CoV-2 was engineered in a lab
“The fear and cleavage site makes it clear that this was a lab leak. That's not a naturally occurring virus. The fear and cleavage sites were engineered.”
Fauci personally reversed Obama-era gain-of-function research ban
“Moreover, Fauci was personally responsible for reversing an Obama-era decision To prohibit gain of function research because it was so risky.”
Democrats will not replace Joe Biden following Trump's conviction
“If you want to make a switcheroo and get a different candidate than Joe Biden, that's not going to happen now because Democrats in the media think that this is their salvation.”
Sachs claims real U.S. household net worth has declined under Biden
“If you adjust for inflation, in other words, you look at the real household net worth, you can see that household net worth during the Biden term has been flat. Actually, it's down.”
Sacks predicts TikTok will be shut down in US, not divested
“So I don't think they're going to be able to divest. I think they're just going to get shut down.”
Palihapitiya: Google market cap will drop 50% if search share drops 1%
“If you see perplexity or anybody else clip off 50 basis points or a hundred basis points of share in search. This thing is going straight down by 50%.”
Jason Calacanis predicts a dark horse candidate could beat Trump and Biden
“I think we're going to actually see some dark horse candidate maybe beat these two in the rematch that nobody Wanted.”
Palihapitiya: OpenAI's enterprise value will fall in 2024
“I think the enterprise value of open AI goes down.”
Friedberg: Turkey faces risk of being challenged in NATO in 2024
“I think there's a risk that Turkey gets challenged to leave NATO. That a lot of what's going on right now where Turkey is siding with Hamas, this has obviously been talked about and rumored about for a long time. There's no real mechanism, by the way, for kick…”
Chamath: You cannot underwrite a $20 billion deal in any industry
“I don't think you can underwrite to get a twenty billion dollar deal done in any industry.”
Sacks predicts the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in Q1 2024
“I think there will be a rate cut in Q-one, and I think this is the Biden bailout.”
Kushner: Iran received $150 billion in cash from Obama administration JCPOA deal
“Iran was on a glide path to a nuclear weapon, having just been given a hundred and fifty billion dollars in cash through the disastrous JCPOA deal that that Kerry and Obama negotiated.”
Friedberg: TED hosted zero talks explaining why people voted for Trump post-2016
“And what disturbed me the most was that in the three years after he was elected, every TED conference had plenty of subjects, plenty of talks, and plenty of conversations about why society is falling apart, why Donald Trump is a key root cause of that, why so …”
Summers predicts Fed will resume rate hikes as inflation remains uncontrolled
“I think there's a larger probably risk that we don't really have inflation on a secure path down below three and a half, and that the Fed thinks it's got it under control, and it doesn't. And it's gonna have to go back to, ah, raising, ah, rates.”
Palihapitiya: Hunter Biden will be in jail by 2024 election
“I think there's a very good chance that Biden's son. He's in jail by the time the election comes around”
Calacanis: Neither Biden nor Trump will be on the 2024 ballot
“I don't know that Biden makes it to the starting line, nor do I think Trump makes it to the starting line.”
Calacanis predicts Donald Trump will drop out within 6 to 12 months
“I believe that you're going to see Chris Christie and Vivek surge. It's going to be a three horse race with DeSantis. And I think Trump's going to be out of the race in the next six to 12 months.”
Ramaswamy claims cartel vehicles run through tunnels under US border wall
“There are cartel finance tunnels underneath that wall that vehicles literally run through today.”
Friedberg: Federal government will launch structured lending program for CRE sector
“My prediction is the federal government is going to help to monetize that debt, and they're going to help to support that commercial real estate sector through some sort of structured lending program.”
Chamath claims the COVID-19 vaccine is only 30 to 40 percent efficacious
“But because those things are lumped in with the same thing as a COVID vaccine that is at best, 30 or 40% efficacious.”
Gerstner predicts up to 40 percent of 2022 unicorns will disappear
“Yeah, I'd say 30 to 40% are these companies that were valued over a billion dollars that don't have product market fit. They'll disappear.”
Calacanis: US government will ban all US venture investing in China soon
“What really is happening is the government is going to stop all US venture investing in China. That's what's going to happen in the coming months.”
RFK Jr.: US and Ukraine are hiding 300,000 Ukrainian soldier deaths
“There have been over 300,000. This is something that the U.S. Government and the Ukrainian government have worked hard to hide. The number of casualties, which has been catastrophic. This is the most violent conflict since World War II that's taken place proba…”
RFK Jr.: US spent $16 trillion on COVID lockdowns and got nothing
“We spent 16 trillion dollars on the pandemic, on the lockdown, and again, got nothing in return.”
RFK Jr.: Federal law prohibits vaccine EUAs if an effective drug exists
“There's a little known federal law that says if there is a drug that is shown effective against the target disease, it is ill, a drug that is approved for any purpose. It is illegal. To issue an emergency use authorization for a vaccine.”
RFK Jr.: Bill Gates and WHO give DTP vaccine to 161M African kids annually
“We stopped it here, they stopped in Europe, but Bill Gates and WHO are still giving it to a hundred and sixty one million African children every year.”
Sacks: Leaked Pentagon papers show Ukrainian casualties 5x higher than admitted
“These new Pentagon papers that were leaked show that the Ukrainian casualties are at least five times greater than they've been publicly admitting.”
Chamath: Nikki Haley will win the Republican nomination
“I think Nikki Haley is going to win the Republican nomination.”
Sacks: Bob Lee was likely killed by a released repeat offender
“I would bet dollars to dimes, that the story is very similar to a case we had in LA recently, the Brianna Kupfer case, where a young woman was basically stabbed For no reason by a psychotic homeless person who had been through the revolving door of the jail an…”
Palihapitiya claims transformer LLMs trained on identical data yield identical answers
“I'm saying when you look at transformer architecture today, every LLM that you write on the same corpus of underlying data for training will get to the same answer.”