The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 498 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 498 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Benioff predicts China and Taiwan will reconcile
“I, I've said this for years. I don't agree with Neil Ferguson on that point. I think that this is a nonsense issue. I think China and Taiwan will reconcile.”
Sacks predicts roughly 30 states will outright ban AI data centers
“Well, I think Chamath is right that the data centers become very unpopular, probably in 30 states they're just going to ban them outright.”
Shapiro predicts Trump policies will cost 500,000 Pennsylvanians their healthcare
“I've got 500,000 Pennsylvanians who are going to lose their health care. I've got a 120,000 who have already lost their health care. About another 320,000 or so were likely to lose Medicaid next year. I've got 26 rural hospitals that are likely to shutter”
Chamath: Software sector P/E multiples will contract as AI degrades tech moats
“The tech sector PE is going to shrink faster, in my opinion, than the non-tech PE. And the reason is because as these companies come out, the combination of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, all three are baking An AI technology that first and foremost will go af…”
Bass: Reid Hoffman initiated contact with Jeffrey Epstein around 400 times
“There's something around on the order of about
400 initiations by Hoffman to Epstein.”
Bass: Documents record 42 meetings between Reid Hoffman and Jeffrey Epstein
“There's something like 42 different meetings that are documented. Around 20 are absolutely confirmed.”
Friedberg: Democratic wins in 2028 will trigger federal pension bailouts
“If you end up with a Democrat controlled house and a Democrat president, In 20, 28, you'll very likely see a federalization of that obligation, meaning that the federal government will step in to bail out or support those state and local governments”
Lockmiller: Crusoe aims to energize an SMR-powered AI data center in 2027
“We're actually hoping to energize the first AI, AI factory powered by an SMR in twenty-twenty-seven.”
Sacks predicts US GDP growth will reach 5% in 2026
“I'm gonna go for five percent. Within a rounding year, I believe five percent.”
Chamath predicts US GDP growth will hit 5% to 6.2% in 2026
“I think the lower bound is five. I think the upper bound is six, two.”
Chamath: AI agents will cause the enterprise software market to contract aggressively
“And because of the advancement of these models and the advancement of these technological techniques that we are all uncovering, building agents, building systems, I think you're going to see that total economic opportunity shrink and contract aggressively.”
Friedberg predicts the Russia-Ukraine war will settle in 2026
“Russia, Ukraine. I think it's going to settle out this year. I think there's a lot of motivating factors to get it settled out this year, economic and other political factors, but I do think it's going to settle out this year, and it's going to bring a bit mor…”
Sacks: AI will increase demand for knowledge workers, not decrease it
“AI will increase demand for knowledge workers, not decrease it.”
Friedberg: Investigations will uncover trillions in fraudulent government spending by 2026
“I think that's gonna be the great uncovering of twenty-twenty-six is we're gonna see on the order of trillions of dollars.”
Bessent aims to reduce U.S. deficit-to-GDP ratio to 3% by 2028
“And I've said that I would, by the time President Trump leaves office, that we would like to have something with a three in front of it, which will stabilize the deficit to GDP, which is an important number, and enable us to start paying down debt.”
Calacanis: AI will eliminate millions of entry-level jobs within five years
“We will have massive job displacement. Destruction, whatever term you prefer in entry level jobs already happening in, you know, what I'll call chores like dishes and driving cars, entry level jobs. Those are going away and they're going to go away in the mill…”
Calacanis: Google will make top Gemini models free for life
“They're going to make Gemini free for life for the best models. That's my prediction for Google, and I think Meta will be right behind them.”
Palihapitiya predicts investors shorting Palantir stock will lose money
“Well, I think the Palantir short is stupid, and I think that those people will lose money.”
Sacks: There will be no federal bailout for AI
“There's not going to be a federal bailout for AI. Not going to happen.”
Sacks predicts Democrats will abolish Senate filibuster upon regaining trifecta
“The next time the Democrats have the trifecta, they will absolutely get rid of the filibuster.”
Palihapitiya predicts Tesla's first million humanoid robots will go to Mars
“If I had to bet, I think a very fun poly market is where do the first million robots go? I'm willing to bet dollars to donuts that these robots go to Mars.”
Wood: Global inflation could drop to zero percent or lower
“But the other thing that we think is going to happen is that inflation is going to surprise significantly on the low side of expectations. We would not be surprised to see zero percent inflation or less.”
Wood expects 40% to 45% annual returns for disruptive tech equities
“The truly disruptive innovation we would expect. Now we did this chart at the end of last year during the next five years to deliver a compound annual rate of return of roughly 50%. Now we've had some of that. So maybe it's 40 to 45% compound annual rate of ch…”
Wood: ARK Invest's bull-case price target for Bitcoin is $1.5 million
“Our official for bull case is 1.5 million.”
Chamath Palihapitiya: Private equity returns will drop to zero
“And when you see that kind of graph, it doesn't matter what asset class it is, the returns go to zero. And so we've seen this in venture capital. We've seen this in hedge funds. And we're now going to see this in private equity.”
Musk predicts SpaceX will demonstrate full Starship reusability by 2026
“Unless we have some very major setbacks SpaceX will demonstrate full reusability next year catching both the booster and the ship and being able to deliver over a hundred tons to a useful orbit.”
Wright: Solar will never reach 10 percent of global energy
“He has a wildly exaggerated view of where solar and batteries will go. And I'd love, if we could make a bet 50 years out, I'll make a bet, solar never gets to 10% of global energy.”
Chamath: OpenAI could reach a $1.5T valuation within four years
“I would probably put that at like, 500 Dow to be conservative. It's probably doubling every two years. So 500 goes to a 1,000,000,001, billion goes to two in four years, and at two billion Dow, they generate a 1th of Facebook's revenue, just to be very conserv…”
Friedberg: AI models will eventually gain legal privilege and professional certification
“And it sounds crazy today, but I guarantee if you put it on Polymarket, there will be a date when this happens.”
Huang: US will produce $500B in AI supercomputers over next four years
“In Arizona and Texas, we will, in the next four years, probably produce about half a trillion dollars worth of AI supercomputers.”
Keith Rabois predicts human-labeled AI data will be obsolete within three years
“The truth is, I think there's a very short half-life on human label data. And so everybody who's investing in these companies just to get revenue traction really didn't understand that there may be a year, two years, Three years max when anybody uses human lab…”
Friedberg: Microsoft faces core application revenue decline within next five years
“I do think that there's a real probability of revenue decline in the next five years. So if you look at the enterprise install base, I think that cloud gets competed away. So I do think like on the application software layer, they're going to have a really har…”
Sen. Johnson projects U.S. national debt will reach $62 to $63 trillion
“The CBO projection right now that is adding another 22 trillion dollars to our debt, it certainly would add at least that. I would argue probably add another three or four trillion dollars, so it's not gonna be 59 trillion, it's gonna be more like 62, 63 trill…”
Rollins: Trump administration will create program guaranteeing farm labor supply
“Those who are not here legally, they need to go back, they need to self-deport, but that we will ensure that there's some sort of program in place That will help make sure that our farmers on this side have the labor that they need.”
Lutnick: US can cut $1T in spending and gain $1T through tariffs
“I think we're gonna cut a trillion dollars a year in expense, and then I think we can, through tariffs and other means, we're gonna get revenues of a trillion dollars.”
Chamath Palihapitiya: The US housing market will experience a major correction
“I think we're going to take trillions more, but the next big market, and this is actually where, Andrew, to your point, we reestablish some hope, I think for a lot of people is we are going to whack the housing market. It's just going to happen.”
Baker predicts the US will hit 5% real GDP growth soon
“My most contrary belief, so I think that America over the next, at some point over the next four years, will print at least one year of greater than five percent GDP growth, real GDP growth.”
Chamath: Google will eventually be broken up into separate units
“Where it lies is this business is in a position where you can probably demarcate four or five logical business units. Again, I'm not saying that it should happen, but it will happen.”
Friedberg: Mobile handsets will no longer exist in ten years
“I don't think that mobile handsets are going to be around in 10 years. I don't think we're going to have this, like, phone in our pocket that we're like, Pressing buttons on and touching and telling it where on the browser to go to the browser interface is goi…”
Megyn Kelly predicts Donald Trump will never serve a day in jail
“It would be immediately appealed, and I think Trump on appeal will win. There are so many holes in that case, so I don't think Trump will ever do one single day in jail.”
Trump predicts all electric cars will eventually be manufactured in China
“The electric cars, they're going to end up all being made in China, by the way, they're not going to be made here.”
Trump's Manhattan conviction will probably be overturned after the election
“So my guess is that at the end of the day, this case is going to get tossed on appeal, but that's probably going to happen after the election, after November fifth”
Trump's conviction won't be reversed, but penalty will be minor
“I think he's going to get a speeding ticket. I don't think the case is going to reverse. I think there's going to be some sort of a pardon now that this is a state kind of situation. So it wouldn't be Biden who would pardon it. It would be the governor.”
Calacanis predicts Meta will capture 10% of search market via AI
“And so just like Apple and Firefox were able to intercept search traffic, I think, and let's make a prediction here, that Meta's gonna get 10 points of the search market.”
Calacanis: Optimus robot will dwarf all other Tesla businesses
“I think Optimus will dwarf the entire entirety of Tesla's other businesses.”
Sacks predicts Telegram is next on US government's target list
“I think telegram is next on the hit list.”
Sacks predicts Figma will not build a competitor to Adobe Photoshop
“Figma has no interest in competing with Photoshop. They're not going to compete. They, they're much more interested in AI. They're much more interested in doing things like prompt to design to code. They're not interested in building, you know, a Photoshop com…”
Sacks: Overlapping AI regulations will lead to a centralized Federal Software Commission
“What's going to happen is that with all of these different bodies issuing new regulations, it's going to get more and more burdensome on technology companies until the point where they cry out for some sort of rationalization of this regime. They're going to s…”