The Calls

⏳ Open 📼 The record

Every prediction date that has already passed, checked against the public record: green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly held up. Diamonds at the right edge were assessed before their prediction date arrived.

4held up → 3didn’t hold up → 1partly held up →
57%of resolved predictions held up
Everyone Chamath Palihapitiya (116)Jason Calacanis (75)David Sacks (67)David Friedberg (61)Brad Gerstner (17)Gavin Baker (11)Elon Musk (9)Howard Lutnick (5)Dr. Mehmet Oz (5)Donald J. Trump (5)Cathie Wood (5)Ray Dalio (4)
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The record (8) every resolved claim →

Prediction Partly held up
Baker: Next-gen AI models will be trained on Blackwell GPUs
“The next models we see, you know, Grok five, you know, O five from open AI, whatever they're going to call Jim, the next Gemini. They will be trained on Blackwell, and I think that will be a really big step function.”
Gavin Baker Jul 19, 2025 ▶ 21:16 Trump vs Powell, Solving the Debt Crisis, The $10T AGI Prize, GENIUS Act Becomes Law
Prediction Held up
Baker predicts institutional private equity funds will buy professional sports teams
“It feels like that market is about to be institutionalized and funds are going to start buying pro sports teams.”
Gavin Baker Jan 4, 2025 ▶ 33:15 2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics!
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Baker predicts multiple independent frontier AI labs will be acquired in 2025
“And then I do think you will see a lot of these frontier AI labs that are independent be acquired.”
Gavin Baker Jan 4, 2025 ▶ 51:21 2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics!
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Baker predicts frontier AI labs will stop releasing leading-edge models publicly
“As far as a specific prediction for 25 because I don't know when that will happen, I think you will see the frontier labs stop releasing their leading-edge models to prevent knowledge distillation and their IP effectively being stolen.”
Gavin Baker Jan 4, 2025 ▶ 1:04:42 2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics!
Prediction Held up
Baker predicts high bandwidth memory manufacturers will be 2025's best asset
“I think the companies that make high bandwidth memory, going back to, we're gonna run out of compute. It's actually a pretty shocking stat. High bandwidth memory is a bigger part of Nvidia's cogs on GPUs than Taiwan Semi is. And today there's two companies tha…”
Gavin Baker Jan 4, 2025 ▶ 1:14:09 2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics!
Prediction Held up
Baker predicts Google Cloud will not lead 2025 cloud dollar revenue growth
“Well, it probably won't be Google, because if they had the largest dollar gain, it would mean they were growing at an, at insane rates”
Gavin Baker Jan 4, 2025 ▶ 1:45:05 2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics!
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Baker: Zohran Mamdani will almost certainly win NYC mayoral election
“Unless Adams or Cuomo pulls out, he's almost certainly going to win.”
Gavin Baker Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 1:02:07 OpenAI's GPT-5 Flop, AI's Unlimited Market, China's Big Advantage, Rise in Socialism, Housing Crisis
Prediction Held up
Baker: xAI's Grok 3 should take the AI lead in early 2025
“Grok three should take the lead if scaling laws hold in January or February.”
Gavin Baker Dec 7, 2024 ▶ 1:01:03 New SEC Chair, Bitcoin, xAI Supercomputer, UnitedHealth CEO murder, with Gavin Baker & Joe Lonsdale
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