tariffs

41 statements across 23 episodes · 19 bullish · 14 bearish · 19 people on the record · first statement Jun 20, 2024 by David Friedberg · across every show →

Everything said about tariffs, oldest first

Jun 20, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Tariffs plus tax cuts could trigger severe inflation and economic contraction
“Tariffs plus tax cuts could lead to a serious inflation and Economic contraction.”
David Friedberg Jun 20, 2024 ▶ 54:51 In conversation with President Trump
Dec 13, 2024 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Raboy: Trump administration will implement real tariffs against China without inflation
“So I think you're going to see real tariffs, like, especially against China, And the Trump administration is completely committed to reducing inflation, the cost of eggs, you know, and groceries, and I think those things can be reconciled.”
Keith Rabois Dec 13, 2024 ▶ 1:16:34 Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC
Mar 8, 2025 positive
Opinion
Lonsdale: Trump is using tariffs as a negotiation tactic over fentanyl
“He's using this to negotiate. So I talked to the senators and I asked him what's going on. Cause obviously I import things all over the place. I'd like to know what the hell the rules are. But he wants people to actually crack down on this stuff and save Ameri…”
Joe Lonsdale Mar 8, 2025 ▶ 9:42 Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
Mar 15, 2025
Insight
Schulz: Domestic criticism undermines a leader's leverage in tariff negotiations
“It's impossible to do these negotiations with any leverage if you have the people within your own country questioning your ability to negotiate in real time.”
Andrew Schulz Mar 15, 2025 ▶ 21:01 Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
Mar 15, 2025 negative
Insight
Friedberg: Using tariff threats as a negotiating bluff becomes easily exploitable
“Once everyone knows that there's this kind of action, it's exploitable. And so this is now kind of an exploitable mode of negotiation where everyone now assumes he's just trying to negotiate, so no one actually takes him seriously.”
David Friedberg Mar 15, 2025 ▶ 21:25 Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
Mar 20, 2025 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Howard Lutnick: The US had no federal income tax until 1913
“America was built on tariffs with no income tax. No income tax till 1913. None.”
Howard Lutnick Mar 20, 2025 ▶ 53:01 Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
Mar 20, 2025 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Howard Lutnick: Kuwait has the highest tariffs against the United States
“The number one country with the highest tariffs against the United States of America, Kuwait.”
Howard Lutnick Mar 20, 2025 ▶ 55:21 Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
Mar 20, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2030
Lutnick: US can cut $1T in spending and gain $1T through tariffs
“I think we're gonna cut a trillion dollars a year in expense, and then I think we can, through tariffs and other means, we're gonna get revenues of a trillion dollars.”
Howard Lutnick Mar 20, 2025 ▶ 22:02 Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
Apr 4, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Shapiro: Israel removed US tariffs before Trump levied 17% tariff
“Yesterday, in anticipation of this, Israel, which had very, very low tariffs on United States goods anyway, announced they'd removed all tariffs. On American goods, right? There were no tariffs on American goods anymore. And the administration that afternoon l…”
Ben Shapiro Apr 4, 2025 ▶ 47:13 DOGE updates + Liberation Day Tariff Reactions with Ben Shapiro and Antonio Gracias
Apr 4, 2025 positive
Prediction Partly held up
Chamath: Trump administration will not capitulate on trade tariffs
“They're gonna go through with this and they're gonna see it through. I don't think you're gonna see this grand capitulation.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 4, 2025 ▶ 51:14 DOGE updates + Liberation Day Tariff Reactions with Ben Shapiro and Antonio Gracias
Apr 4, 2025 negative
Opinion
Ben Shapiro: Trump's tariff policy rolls the dice without an articulated strategy
“It's why I'm being critical of the tariffs. It's not because I want Trump to lose, it's because I want Trump to win, right? I think he's doing too many important things, like the stuff that Antonio's doing. There are too many important things happening to take…”
Ben Shapiro Apr 4, 2025 ▶ 1:37:39 DOGE updates + Liberation Day Tariff Reactions with Ben Shapiro and Antonio Gracias
Apr 4, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Maintaining tariffs will force higher US government spending to support exporters
“I think that the second consequence is going to be that there is going to need to be financial support, which means increased government spending if we intend to keep the tariffs in place, and the global market stops buying American exports.”
David Friedberg Apr 4, 2025 ▶ 1:05:02 DOGE updates + Liberation Day Tariff Reactions with Ben Shapiro and Antonio Gracias
Apr 11, 2025 negative
Insight
Klein: Sound policies do not require constantly shifting defense arguments
“Usually when an idea is good, you don't need people jumping back and forth on it so often, going between these tariffs are a bad idea, but they're a smart negotiating ploy, to these tariffs plus are an actually great idea, and you should all calm down.”
Ezra Klein Apr 11, 2025 ▶ 20:41 The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Apr 11, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Trump tariffs will force a Mar-a-Lago Accords global trade framework
“So I think that the Mar-a-Lago Accords, this sort of Bretton Woods two point O is the outcome Ezra. It will basically use tariffs as a way to get these governments to a table and allow us to negotiate a much fairer economic quid pro quo.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 11, 2025 ▶ 1:07:01 The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Apr 11, 2025 negative
Prediction Held up
Summers: Overwhelming majority of tariff costs will be passed to consumers
“Increases in tariffs of this magnitude, the overwhelming part of them will be passed on to consumers.”
Larry Summers Apr 11, 2025 ▶ 7:55 The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
Apr 26, 2025 bullish
Prediction Held up
Sacks: Hyperscaler AI CapEx spend will hold up despite tariffs
“I think it's going to hold up. I mean, look, I just think that this investment in, in CapEx and the data center build outs is so strategic right now. I mean, I think that the hyperscalers, it's only good for their businesses, but I think they see it as so stra…”
David Sacks Apr 26, 2025 ▶ 57:43 Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
May 3, 2025 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Uber is an anti-tariff stock unaffected by trade tariffs
“All that matters to me is that Uber is the anti-tariff stock. It just does great. It's not impacted by tariffs.”
Jason Calacanis May 3, 2025 ▶ 3:02 Trump's First 100 Days, Tariffs Impact Trade, AI Agents, Amazon Backs Down
May 9, 2025 neutral
Insight
Laffont: Retailers pass only 50% of tariff costs to consumers
“And there's this sort of false narrative that when you have tariffs, like a hundred percent of tariffs are going to get passed through in pricing and therefore tariff is like a tax, right? That retailer told us that they think only about 50% of the tariff gets…”
Philippe Laffont May 9, 2025 ▶ 23:28 Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
Jun 13, 2025 bullish
Prediction Partly held up
Chamath: Tariffs will generate $300B-$400B extra annual revenue
“We are run rating, 300 to four hundred billion dollars above forecast in terms of our receipts, meaning the revenues that we will take in. And you get to that number by looking at the last three months of tariffs and forecasting forward, assuming a reasonable …”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 13, 2025 ▶ 1:00:17 Tucker Carlson: ICE Raids, LA Riots, Strong Economic Data, Politicized Fed, War with Iran?
Jul 23, 2025 neutral
Prediction Partly held up
Lutnick: Unsettled trade negotiations will trigger higher tariffs on August 1st
“Okay, so on August first, whatever hasn't been settled will be settled. You get the tariffs go into effect, right? So all this 10%, they'll all just pop up to some higher number.”
Howard Lutnick Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 41:53 Winning the AI Race Part 4: Scott Bessent, Howard Lutnick, Chris Wright, and Doug Burgum
Aug 1, 2025
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Tariffs cause inflation in thin-margin sectors but not in monopolies
“So I think in some of these categories, we will see significant inflation where there is a very thin margin that the seller has in selling. And in some of the categories where there's a monopoly and they have a big margin, they're going to eat it because they …”
David Friedberg Aug 1, 2025 ▶ 1:17:55 Trump AI Speech & Action Plan, DC Summit Recap, Hot GDP Print, Trade Deals, Altman Warns No Privacy
Aug 9, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Friedberg: Tariff revenue will give the U.S. government a crutch to keep spending
“The thing I most worry about with respect to tariffs is if it does create a new revenue source for the federal government, it gives the federal government another crutch to keep spending.”
David Friedberg Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 1:27:40 OpenAI's GPT-5 Flop, AI's Unlimited Market, China's Big Advantage, Rise in Socialism, Housing Crisis
Aug 9, 2025 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Baker: Tariffs are traditionally a Democratic position that Clinton and Obama ran on
“Tariffs are traditionally a democratic policy position. You know, Clinton ran on them. Obama ran on them to be a slightly lesser degree.”
Gavin Baker Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 1:25:15 OpenAI's GPT-5 Flop, AI's Unlimited Market, China's Big Advantage, Rise in Socialism, Housing Crisis
Aug 9, 2025 positive
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Baker: Raising over $250B in U.S. tariffs in 2026 seems reasonable
“But for 2026, that does seem reasonable.”
Gavin Baker Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 1:12:05 OpenAI's GPT-5 Flop, AI's Unlimited Market, China's Big Advantage, Rise in Socialism, Housing Crisis
Aug 9, 2025 negative
Insight
Shapiro: Raising tariff revenues and reshoring manufacturing are mutually exclusive goals
“You can champion The amount of revenue that we're raising off of tariffs, but you can't do that at the same time that you're championing reshoring, because if you reshore, then that revenue is going to go away, presumably, right? You're not going to be buying …”
Ben Shapiro Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 1:14:44 OpenAI's GPT-5 Flop, AI's Unlimited Market, China's Big Advantage, Rise in Socialism, Housing Crisis
Sep 7, 2025 positive
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Palihapitiya predicts US will book $500 billion in incremental tariff revenue
“I think that the United States is going to book Probably close to half a trillion of incremental revenue.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 7, 2025 ▶ 33:50 Inside the White House Tech Dinner, Weak Jobs Report, Tariffs Court Challenge, Google Wins Antitrust
Sep 7, 2025 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Future US presidents will not reverse Trump's popular tariffs
“My guess is that they're not going to be reversed in the future by a future president, because I think they actually are quite popular with the country, with workers.”
David Sacks Sep 7, 2025 ▶ 31:15 Inside the White House Tech Dinner, Weak Jobs Report, Tariffs Court Challenge, Google Wins Antitrust
Sep 7, 2025 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Calacanis: Trump tariffs generated over $150 billion in revenue in months
“They have on the other side generated over a hundred fifty billion dollars in revenue in a couple of short months.”
Jason Calacanis Sep 7, 2025 ▶ 29:46 Inside the White House Tech Dinner, Weak Jobs Report, Tariffs Court Challenge, Google Wins Antitrust
Sep 7, 2025
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: CBO projects $4 trillion in tariff revenue over next decade
“The CBO Has now increased their projection of what tariffs will raise to four trillion over the next decade.”
David Sacks Sep 7, 2025 ▶ 32:23 Inside the White House Tech Dinner, Weak Jobs Report, Tariffs Court Challenge, Google Wins Antitrust
Sep 9, 2025 negative
Disclosure
Cuban: Tariffs put several Shark Tank companies out of business
“Like for my Shark Tank companies, it's put several out of business.”
Mark Cuban Sep 9, 2025 ▶ 25:32 Tucker Carlson and Mark Cuban Debate How to Save America 🔥 | All-In Summit 2025
Sep 17, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Trump claims tariffs are forcing manufacturing plants to relocate to US
“Factories are coming back because they don't want to pay tariffs.”
Donald J. Trump Sep 17, 2025 ▶ 14:00 Oval Office Tour with President Trump
Sep 17, 2025 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Trump claims tariffs generated hundreds of billions without causing inflation
“No inflation. They said, oh, tariffs will cause inflation. They were, they've been wrong about everything, and these guys, and for the most part, they've admitted, they've said, you know, Trump was right, because we've taken in hundreds of billions of dollars …”
Donald J. Trump Sep 17, 2025 ▶ 17:05 Oval Office Tour with President Trump
Oct 16, 2025 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sorkin: US tariffs will yield higher costs and inferior cars in 10 years
“Having said that, if we do this, which we are, We will probably spend more to buy less technologically capable cars 10 years from now than the next time we all, you know, if you go on vacation to Europe or Asia and get in the back of one of these other cars.”
Andrew Ross Sorkin Oct 16, 2025 ▶ 44:46 1929 vs 2025: Andrew Ross Sorkin on Crashes, Bubbles & Lessons Learned
Dec 22, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Bessent claims a 150-year San Francisco Fed study shows tariffs are disinflationary
“There's a study from not a friend of the administration, the San Francisco fed with a 150 years of data. I would refer everyone to that. That shows that tariffs do not cause inflation, that they're actually disinflationary.”
Scott Bessent Dec 22, 2025 ▶ 6:20 Scott Bessent: Fixing the Fed, Tariffs for National Security, Solving Affordability in 2026
Dec 22, 2025 neutral
Insight
Bessent notes China maintains production despite tariffs to prioritize jobs
“The Chinese business model It's based on volume, it's based on employment, it's based on a five-year plan, and I think everyone neglected the idea that despite the tar, the tariffs, the Chinese were going to keep producing, that it's one of these, they may los…”
Scott Bessent Dec 22, 2025 ▶ 8:51 Scott Bessent: Fixing the Fed, Tariffs for National Security, Solving Affordability in 2026
Jan 9, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2031
Lutnick: US tariff revenues will grow from $500B to $1T per year
“And then you have the tariffs are five hundred billion a year now, and they will grow over time to a trillion a year”
Howard Lutnick Jan 9, 2026 ▶ 34:38 Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026
Jan 9, 2026 positive
Assertion Contradicted
Lutnick: Tariff revenues fund proposed tax exemptions on tips and Social Security
“Who paid for no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on social security. Right? Tariffs.”
Howard Lutnick Jan 9, 2026 ▶ 35:18 Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026
Feb 28, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks predicts future administrations will maintain tariffs
“And I predict That future administrations, whether they're Republican or Democrat, will keep some version of the tariffs in place, but I think that they will be ultimately popular on a longstanding basis.”
David Sacks Feb 28, 2026 ▶ 1:14:02 Software Stocks Implode, Claude's Hit List, State of the Union Reactions, Trump's Tariff Pivot
Feb 28, 2026 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Tariffs will ultimately create more equality for American workers
“We had a hollowed out manufacturing class, and we have a hollowed out middle class, and the tariffs will create more equality for the American worker in the end.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 28, 2026 ▶ 1:14:48 Software Stocks Implode, Claude's Hit List, State of the Union Reactions, Trump's Tariff Pivot
Apr 8, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Shapiro: Trump tariffs raised PA coffee prices 30% and fertilizer 36%
“And as a result, here in Pennsylvania, what we're seeing is coffee prices are up 30%. Beef is up 19%. OJ orange juice is up nine percent. The fertilizers my farmers rely on here in Pennsylvania, up 36%.”
Josh Shapiro Apr 8, 2026 ▶ 29:05 Josh Shapiro on Trump, Iran War Chaos, Israel's Failure, the Economy, and 2028 Race
May 12, 2026 negative
Insight
Charles Koch asserts tariffs undermine division of labor and increase costs
“And then set up all these tariffs, which undermine the divisional labor by comparative advantage, which makes everything more expensive.”
Charles Koch May 12, 2026 ▶ 1:28:07 How We Grew Koch Industries to $150 Billion Without Going Public: Charles & Chase Koch
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