Polymarket, every mention
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tap a year for its mentions
every year anyone Jason Calacanis 138David Friedberg 54Shayne Coplan 18Chamath Palihapitiya 14Producer Nick 5David Sacks 4Brian Armstrong 3Nate Silver 2Jeremy Allaire 1Haralabos Voulgaris 1
Verbatim, from the transcripts: the passages where Polymarket comes up
AI Kills Everybody or Doomer Psyop? OpenAI’s Math Breakthrough, Nike’s $200B Collapse
- ▶ 47:19 Jason Calacanis 88% chance they're going to go public right now according to Polymarket.
GPT-6 Hits AGI? Tech Euphoria 2.0, SF Mansion Shortage, NYC Bans AI in Schools & Venezuela Oil Deal
- ▶ 7:09 Jason Calacanis Yeah, the, uh, ratings here from Polymarket, which company has the best AI model, by the end of twenty-twenty-six, OpenAI's chances just spiked from low single digits now to over 20%.
- ▶ 33:52 Jason Calacanis Polymarket, our great partner.
Nvidia's Historic Quarter, SaaS Comeback, Bessent vs Druck, America's Debt Crisis, Cancer Vaccine
- ▶ 10:29 Jason Calacanis Polymarket says, 79% chance. 2 times in the scene
- ▶ 1:15:35 Jason Calacanis Polymarket says only 21% chance we get a Russian Ukraine ceasefire by the end of the year.
Dario Defends Himself, Datacenter Panic, AI Doomer Trap, Senate Toss-Up
- ▶ 1:01:00 Jason Calacanis Polymark has them at 80% favorites, but Polymarket now has the Dems at 52%, basically a toss up, uh, current balance of power, GOP, 53 seats, Dems, 47, 4 times in the scene
Anthropic's $2T IPO, Zuck's AI Manifesto, Nvidia's $500B AI Bet, Grok's Comeback
- ▶ 3:09 Jason Calacanis This lines up with the poly market, the shop sharps at poly market saying 80% chance of anthropic IPO this year. 2 times in the scene
Google’s AI Brain Drain, SpaceX's Huge Quarter, Airtable’s 90% Collapse, US Data Fuels China AI
- ▶ 9:16 Jason Calacanis Polymarket, which companies will have the number one AI model by the end of this year on December 31st.
Chip Stocks Crash, $20B Fund Margin Called, Frontier Labs: SLOW DOWN AI, Mamdani's Grocery Stores
- ▶ 19:03 Jason Calacanis Obviously, President Trump has been angling for a cut, and here's your poly market.
- ▶ 59:11 Jason Calacanis Here's your poly market. 2 times in the scene
The Fight Over Open Source AI, Anthropic's $1.5B Payout, NYC Socialists: Evictions = Violence?
- ▶ 1:47 Jason Calacanis Polymarket says, 45% chance U.S. government bans an open source model in twenty-twenty-six.
OpenAI vs Anthropic IPOs, Anthropic $3T, Zuck's Price War, China Ends Open Source?, Trump Accounts
- ▶ 3:53 Jason Calacanis Polymarket says, 65% chance Anthropik's IPO will happen this year on light volume, 360 K.
AI Sovereignty Wars, Palantir-Nvidia Deal, SCOTUS Birthright Ruling, Newsom’s CA Budget Lie
- ▶ 1:38:21 Chamath Palihapitiya What does the poly market say on Gavin's chances of, uh.
Nate Silver Predicts: Democrats Take the House, Newsom Is Fading, President AOC?!
- ▶ 4:07 Nate Silver I consult for Polymarket, I should say.
- ▶ 54:11 Nate Silver So if the odds of Democrats winning the Senate, but not the House are like, are like one percent, if you go to Kalshi or Polymarket, whatever else, they have to be like around one percent.
- ▶ 1:00:09 Jason Calacanis And, ah, yeah, everybody go to Polymarket, place some bets, our favorite partner, Nate's favorite partner.
Socialists Sweep NYC, China Catches Up in Coding, AI Memory Crunch, Micron's Blowout Quarter
- ▶ 2:18 Jason Calacanis According to our partners at Polymarket, this was a pretty big upset.
Anthropic's Fable Backlash, Nationalizing AI, Inflation Heats Up & California’s Broken Elections
- ▶ 55:40 Jason Calacanis Here's your poly market.
- ▶ 1:06:18 Jason Calacanis Here's your poly market, 21% chance inflation hits five percent in twenty-twenty-six, uh, and then an adjacent poly market chances of the Fed hiking this year at 49%. 2 times in the scene
Anthropic's Digital God, Pope vs AI, Job Loss Narrative Flips, Open Source Crackdown Coming?
- ▶ 56:46 Chamath Palihapitiya Nick, can you throw it up from Polymarket? 2 times in the scene
SpaceX’s $2T Case, Nvidia’s Shock Selloff, America Turns on AI, Trump Pulls AI Order, Bond Crisis?
- ▶ 47:34 Jason Calacanis Polymarket. 2 times in the scene
- ▶ 1:22:49 Jason Calacanis Polymarket says, 99% chance May inflation comes in at 4.2% or higher.
Trump-Xi Summit, Benioff: "Not My First SaaSpocalypse," OpenAI vs Apple, Multi-Sensory AI, El Niño
- ▶ 2:03 Jason Calacanis Polymarket says Taiwan is safe for 2026, only six percent chance China invades this year on twenty three million volume, which is a lot of volume, 17% chance, roughly triple.
Elon’s Anthropic Deal, The Next AI Monopoly?, “FDA for AI” Panic, Trading the AI Boom
- ▶ 48:59 Jason Calacanis Here's your Polymarket for Trump ordering a federal review of AI models by May 31st, 21% chance, I think, uh, to our partner at Polymarket. 2 times in the scene
OpenAI Misses Targets, Codex vs Claude, Elon vs Sam Trial, Big Hyperscaler Beats, Peptide Craze
- ▶ 7:44 Jason Calacanis Here's your poly market. 2 times in the scene
- ▶ 34:30 Chamath Palihapitiya I think it's weird that Polymarket
SpaceX-Cursor Deal, SaaS Debt Bomb, New Apple CEO, SPLC Indictment, Colon Cancer Spike
- ▶ 16:00 Jason Calacanis Polymarket says all of this is faked.
Iran War, Oil Shock, Off Ramps, AI's Revenue Explosion and PR Nightmare
- ▶ 5:29 Jason Calacanis Wall Street Journal on Thursday quoted a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute saying that reopening the strait will require ground troops polymarket. 2 times in the scene
- ▶ 15:38 Jason Calacanis I think if the neocons get their way and the people on poly market are correct,
War with Iran + Pentagon vs Anthropic with Under Secretary of War Emil Michael
- ▶ 3:49 Jason Calacanis So here's an interesting polymarket. 3 times in the scene
Software Stocks Implode, Claude's Hit List, State of the Union Reactions, Trump's Tariff Pivot
- ▶ 1:11:24 Jason Calacanis Here's your poly market. 2 times in the scene
Debt Spiral or NEW Golden Age? Super Bowl Insider Trading, Booming Token Budgets, Ferrari's New EV
- ▶ 19:26 Jason Calacanis More than a billion bet on Kalshi, seven hundred million on Polymarket, almost two billion dollars in wagering. 4 times in the scene
Epstein Files, Is SaaS Dead?, Moltbook Panic, SpaceX xAI Merger, Trump's Fed Pick
- ▶ 1:59 Jason Calacanis That's the poly market is saying potatoes.
ICE Chaos in Minneapolis, Clawdbot Takeover, Why the Dollar is Dropping
- ▶ 1:20:24 Jason Calacanis Oh, here's your polymarket. 2 times in the scene
The Future of Everything: What CEOs of Circle, CrowdStrike & More See Coming in 2026
- ▶ 37:53 Jeremy Allaire Well now, you know, Polymark and Kalshi both
Coinbase CEO's Top 3 Crypto Trends for 2026 + More from Davos!
- ▶ 15:25 Brian Armstrong Uh, I know you guys, uh, work with Polymarket or whatever on the show. 3 times in the scene
Iran's Breaking Point, Trump's Greenland Acquisition, and Solving Energy Costs
- ▶ 6:40 Jason Calacanis Here's your poly markets, and then I'll let you give your thoughts on it.
- ▶ 57:03 Jason Calacanis That being said, there's only 50,000 people there and it's a poly market's got it a 17% chance that we acquire it, which is.
All-In's 2026 Predictions
- ▶ 8:41 Jason Calacanis Polymark it in. 2 times in the scene
- ▶ 16:03 Jason Calacanis Uh, you know, he is out there defending Trump, uh, and he's surging on poly market, ending the polls.
- ▶ 33:23 David Friedberg And the second is a poly market. 3 times in the scene
- ▶ 1:03:47 David Friedberg Polymarket. 3 times in the scene
- ▶ 1:06:31 Jason Calacanis And, uh, adding to all that and just giving my pick, I think if we are in a rate cut environment and the tailwinds keep happening and people have a little bit of cash laying around, my pick for best performing asset will be the Robinhood…
- ▶ 1:26:21 Jason Calacanis On a poly market, I'm sure there will be.
- ▶ 1:29:42 Jason Calacanis Let's do a Polymarket.
Massive Somali Fraud in Minnesota with Nick Shirley, California Asset Seizure, $20B Groq-Nvidia Deal
- ▶ 47:37 Chamath Palihapitiya What's the poly market, say, Jay Cullen, whether Waltz is going to get prosecuted and go to jail? 3 times in the scene
Bernie Sanders Says Stop All AI, China's Breakthrough, Inflation Down, Golden Age in 2026?
- ▶ 3:09 Jason Calacanis Polymarket put up a little, uh, market here.
Tucker Carlson: Rise of Nick Fuentes, Paramount vs Netflix, Anti-AI Sentiment, Hottest Takes
- ▶ 5:54 Jason Calacanis Polymarket, interestingly, has Paramount as the favorite at 51%, and Netflix has dropped to 36%, even though they say they have a done deal, and 14% chance of no deal.
Live Poker Match!: The Besties Vs. Phil Hellmuth, Alan Keating, and Jason Koon
- ▶ 0:25 Chamath Palihapitiya Set up the poly market. 2 times in the scene
Epstein Files Fallout, Nvidia Risks, Burry's Bad Bet, Google's Breakthrough, Tether's Boom
- ▶ 35:33 Jason Calacanis Polymarket now has Google at 89% to finish the year.
- ▶ 49:54 Jason Calacanis He was the seed investor in a little company known as Polymarket, uh, and he's gotten into, uh, our friend group.
Does OpenAI Need a Bailout? Mamdani Wins, Socialism Rising, Filibuster Nuclear Option
- ▶ 1:06:02 Jason Calacanis No surprise if you're on Polymarket, because they have been saying this for months.
Pete Buttigieg: The Left's Identity Crisis, Wealth Tax, 2024 Mistakes, Plans for 2028
- ▶ 1:01:19 Jason Calacanis Our friends at Polymarket. 2 times in the scene
NBA Gambling Scandal, Billionaire Tax, Tesla's Future, Amazon Robots, AWS Outage, Dangerous AI Bias
- ▶ 20:20 David Friedberg Look at Polymarket. 5 times in the scene
- ▶ 20:53 David Friedberg The poly market model is the best model because it creates a market, and so as information flows in, that market will dynamically adjust and everyone will get a more fair price. 8 times in the scene
- ▶ 50:07 Jason Calacanis Polymarket thinks it's gonna pass. 2 times in the scene
Trump: Send National Guard to SF, China Rare Earths Trade War, AI's PR Crisis
- ▶ 38:45 Jason Calacanis Traders on Polymarket think
Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally
- ▶ 12:24 Jason Calacanis Poly market showing a 90% chance, 90% chance that all Israeli hostages will be returned by the end of the month, which would be just tremendous.
- ▶ 1:20:39 Jason Calacanis Let's wrap on poly market.
Biggest LBO Ever, SPAC 2.0, Open Source AI Models, State AI Regulation Frenzy
- ▶ 1:22:24 Jason Calacanis Let me go to Polymarket.
H-1B Shakeup, Kimmel Apology, Autism Causes, California Hate Speech Law
- ▶ 3:21 Jason Calacanis And before I do, they had an interesting poly market.
- ▶ 31:27 Chamath Palihapitiya We need a poly market. 2 times in the scene
- ▶ 44:19 Jason Calacanis But Nexar and Sinclair's affiliates, they decided to not air it, and that was 60% of the market, so interesting, polymarket.
Charlie Kirk Murder, Assassination Culture in America, Jimmy Kimmel Suspended, Ellison Media Empire
- ▶ 54:57 Jason Calacanis Here's what our partner Polymarket, shout out to my guy, Shane.
Inside the White House Tech Dinner, Weak Jobs Report, Tariffs Court Challenge, Google Wins Antitrust
- ▶ 36:36 Jason Calacanis Freeburg, here's your poly market.
- ▶ 36:44 Jason Calacanis Most people are betting, so this could be a case of free money if people want to go get it on poly market, because it has a pretty good chance of hitting that.
- ▶ 54:32 David Sacks But then if you look at poly market, people on poly market are strongly betting against a recession this year. 2 times in the scene
Trump Takes On the Fed, US-Intel Deal, Why Bankruptcies Are Up, OpenAI's Longevity Breakthrough
- ▶ 11:54 Jason Calacanis Here's your Polymarket folks.
- ▶ 35:48 Jason Calacanis And so we, that's why the market popped, and Polymarket is showing that's gonna happen in September.
AI Bubble Pops, Zuck Freezes Hiring, Newsom’s 2028 Surge, Russia/Ukraine Endgame
- ▶ 39:11 Jason Calacanis According to Polymarket, Gavin Newsom is the early favorite in the 2028 Democratic presidential race. 3 times in the scene
OpenAI's GPT-5 Flop, AI's Unlimited Market, China's Big Advantage, Rise in Socialism, Housing Crisis
- ▶ 1:10:57 Jason Calacanis We're gonna trade one for the other thoughts, and then here's your polymarket. 4 times in the scene
Trump AI Speech & Action Plan, DC Summit Recap, Hot GDP Print, Trade Deals, Altman Warns No Privacy
- ▶ 43:50 Jason Calacanis If we want to make a poly market on this, I will guarantee that this will be the beginning of the deals and the deals will go up from here.
- ▶ 1:00:14 David Friedberg And it sounds crazy today, but I guarantee if you put it on Polymarket, there will be a date when this happens. 2 times in the scene
Winning the AI Race Part 4: Scott Bessent, Howard Lutnick, Chris Wright, and Doug Burgum
- ▶ 12:15 Jason Calacanis So then polymarket is showing no rate cut is the most likely case in September.
Trump vs Powell, Solving the Debt Crisis, The $10T AGI Prize, GENIUS Act Becomes Law
- ▶ 4:54 Jason Calacanis When the article was published, Polymarket 2 times in the scene
Grok 4 Wows, The Bitter Lesson, Third Party, AI Browsers, SCOTUS backs POTUS on RIFs
- ▶ 58:48 Jason Calacanis According to Polymarket, 55% chance that Elon registers the American party by the end of the year.
Big Beautiful Bill, Elon/Trump, Dollar Down Big, Harvard's Money Problems, Figma IPO
- ▶ 3:42 Jason Calacanis According to poly market, there is a 96% chance the bill will pass by Thursday and a 97% chance it'll pass by Friday, July fourth independence day, the day we publish.
- ▶ 1:10:54 Jason Calacanis According to Polymarket, 52% chance of a rate cut in September, 46% chance of no change.
David Friedberg Reacts to Zohran Mamdani’s NYC Mayoral Run
- ▶ 0:10 Jason Calacanis Here's the polymarket chart.
12 Day War, Socialism Wins in NYC, Stocks All-Time High, AI Copyright, Science Corner
- ▶ 40:15 Jason Calacanis Here's the poly market chart.
- ▶ 1:30:42 Jason Calacanis Let's pull up the poly market just for real quick. 2 times in the scene
Tony Robbins | All-In Live from Miami
- ▶ 43:55 Jason Calacanis And special thanks to my friends, including Shane over at Polymarket, Google Cloud, Solana, and BVNK.
Tucker Carlson: ICE Raids, LA Riots, Strong Economic Data, Politicized Fed, War with Iran?
- ▶ 1:05:07 Jason Calacanis Here's polymarket for September showing 80% chance of a cut. 2 times in the scene
- ▶ 1:29:53 Jason Calacanis Pali market odds are spiking on Israel.
The Formula for Building America's Happiest City: Miami Mayor Francis Suarez | All-In Live
- ▶ 22:53 Jason Calacanis And special thanks to my friends, including Shane over at Polymarket, Google Cloud, Solana, and BVNK.
AI Doom vs Boom, EA Cult Returns, BBB Upside, US Steel and Golden Votes
- ▶ 2:06 Jason Calacanis Polymarket thinks regulatory capture via this AI safety bill is very unlikely.
Nico Rosberg on the Booming Business of F1 | All-In Live from Miami
- ▶ 23:24 Jason Calacanis And special thanks to my friends, including Shane over at Polymarket, Google Cloud, Solana, and BVNK.
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
- ▶ 13:23 Jason Calacanis Here's the, uh, prediction from Polymarket on what will happen to Fed rate cuts in 20, 25.
- ▶ 1:23:47 David Friedberg Let's do a polymarket. 2 times in the scene
Antonio Gracias: DOGE updates, Voter fraud, Finding 'Big Balls' | All-In Live from Miami
- ▶ 27:29 Jason Calacanis And special thanks to my friends, including Shane over at Polymarket, Google Cloud, Solana, and BVNK.
Sergey Brin, Google Co-Founder | All-In Live from Miami
- ▶ 32:15 Jason Calacanis And special thanks to my friends, including Shane over at Polymarket, Google Cloud, Solana, and BVNK.
Trump's Big Week: Middle East Trip, China Deal, Pharma EO, "Big, Beautiful Bill" with Ben Shapiro
- ▶ 36:14 Jason Calacanis Our partners are over a poly market. 3 times in the scene
Fed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
- ▶ 9:43 Jason Calacanis And they just launched their crypto exchange here in the US, so if you love All In, do me a favor, go check out OKX, and thanks to some of our other partners, Solana, Google Cloud, BVNK, Circle, shout out my guy Jeremy Lair, and my brother…
- ▶ 16:34 Jason Calacanis Chamatha, our friends at Polymarket are showing in, uh, June, 84% chance of no change.
Trump's First 100 Days, Tariffs Impact Trade, AI Agents, Amazon Backs Down
- ▶ 1:24:43 Jason Calacanis And let's take a look at our partner Polymarket and, uh, which company they think will have the best AI model by the end of 2025 and get feedback from our panel on if you think this is accurate and who you would pick here looks like Google.
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
- ▶ 1:13:20 David Friedberg But to answer your question, Andrew, uh, Nick, do you want to pull up this poly market? 2 times in the scene
- ▶ 1:13:31 David Friedberg Poly market showing an 84% chance of less than fifty billion being cut in 2025. 2 times in the scene
Trump vs Harvard, Nvidia export controls, how DEI killed Hollywood with Tim Dillon
- ▶ 1:21:45 Jason Calacanis Why don't we do a poly market for this?
DOGE updates + Liberation Day Tariff Reactions with Ben Shapiro and Antonio Gracias
- ▶ 49:50 Chamath Palihapitiya The second is, and I, we've said this all year since January one on this pod, we started it even with the, with that poly market bet that I made, which is the Trump administration does not care about the stock market. 3 times in the scene
- ▶ 1:45:06 David Friedberg Oh, by the way, I created a, a poly market on GDP. 4 times in the scene
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