Polymarket, every mention
45 scenes (2026) · ← back to Polymarket
tap a year for its mentions
every year 2026 anyone Jason Calacanis 138David Friedberg 54Shayne Coplan 18Chamath Palihapitiya 14Producer Nick 5David Sacks 4Brian Armstrong 3Nate Silver 2Jeremy Allaire 1Haralabos Voulgaris 1
Verbatim, from the transcripts: the passages where Polymarket comes up
AI Kills Everybody or Doomer Psyop? OpenAI’s Math Breakthrough, Nike’s $200B Collapse
- ▶ 47:19 Jason Calacanis 88% chance they're going to go public right now according to Polymarket.
GPT-6 Hits AGI? Tech Euphoria 2.0, SF Mansion Shortage, NYC Bans AI in Schools & Venezuela Oil Deal
- ▶ 7:09 Jason Calacanis Yeah, the, uh, ratings here from Polymarket, which company has the best AI model, by the end of twenty-twenty-six, OpenAI's chances just spiked from low single digits now to over 20%.
- ▶ 33:52 Jason Calacanis Polymarket, our great partner.
Nvidia's Historic Quarter, SaaS Comeback, Bessent vs Druck, America's Debt Crisis, Cancer Vaccine
- ▶ 10:29 Jason Calacanis Polymarket says, 79% chance. 2 times in the scene
- ▶ 1:15:35 Jason Calacanis Polymarket says only 21% chance we get a Russian Ukraine ceasefire by the end of the year.
Dario Defends Himself, Datacenter Panic, AI Doomer Trap, Senate Toss-Up
- ▶ 1:01:00 Jason Calacanis Polymark has them at 80% favorites, but Polymarket now has the Dems at 52%, basically a toss up, uh, current balance of power, GOP, 53 seats, Dems, 47, 4 times in the scene
Anthropic's $2T IPO, Zuck's AI Manifesto, Nvidia's $500B AI Bet, Grok's Comeback
- ▶ 3:09 Jason Calacanis This lines up with the poly market, the shop sharps at poly market saying 80% chance of anthropic IPO this year. 2 times in the scene
Google’s AI Brain Drain, SpaceX's Huge Quarter, Airtable’s 90% Collapse, US Data Fuels China AI
- ▶ 9:16 Jason Calacanis Polymarket, which companies will have the number one AI model by the end of this year on December 31st.
Chip Stocks Crash, $20B Fund Margin Called, Frontier Labs: SLOW DOWN AI, Mamdani's Grocery Stores
- ▶ 19:03 Jason Calacanis Obviously, President Trump has been angling for a cut, and here's your poly market.
- ▶ 59:11 Jason Calacanis Here's your poly market. 2 times in the scene
The Fight Over Open Source AI, Anthropic's $1.5B Payout, NYC Socialists: Evictions = Violence?
- ▶ 1:47 Jason Calacanis Polymarket says, 45% chance U.S. government bans an open source model in twenty-twenty-six.
OpenAI vs Anthropic IPOs, Anthropic $3T, Zuck's Price War, China Ends Open Source?, Trump Accounts
- ▶ 3:53 Jason Calacanis Polymarket says, 65% chance Anthropik's IPO will happen this year on light volume, 360 K.
AI Sovereignty Wars, Palantir-Nvidia Deal, SCOTUS Birthright Ruling, Newsom’s CA Budget Lie
- ▶ 1:38:21 Chamath Palihapitiya What does the poly market say on Gavin's chances of, uh.
Nate Silver Predicts: Democrats Take the House, Newsom Is Fading, President AOC?!
- ▶ 4:07 Nate Silver I consult for Polymarket, I should say.
- ▶ 54:11 Nate Silver So if the odds of Democrats winning the Senate, but not the House are like, are like one percent, if you go to Kalshi or Polymarket, whatever else, they have to be like around one percent.
- ▶ 1:00:09 Jason Calacanis And, ah, yeah, everybody go to Polymarket, place some bets, our favorite partner, Nate's favorite partner.
Socialists Sweep NYC, China Catches Up in Coding, AI Memory Crunch, Micron's Blowout Quarter
- ▶ 2:18 Jason Calacanis According to our partners at Polymarket, this was a pretty big upset.
Anthropic's Fable Backlash, Nationalizing AI, Inflation Heats Up & California’s Broken Elections
- ▶ 55:40 Jason Calacanis Here's your poly market.
- ▶ 1:06:18 Jason Calacanis Here's your poly market, 21% chance inflation hits five percent in twenty-twenty-six, uh, and then an adjacent poly market chances of the Fed hiking this year at 49%. 2 times in the scene
Anthropic's Digital God, Pope vs AI, Job Loss Narrative Flips, Open Source Crackdown Coming?
- ▶ 56:46 Chamath Palihapitiya Nick, can you throw it up from Polymarket? 2 times in the scene
SpaceX’s $2T Case, Nvidia’s Shock Selloff, America Turns on AI, Trump Pulls AI Order, Bond Crisis?
- ▶ 47:34 Jason Calacanis Polymarket. 2 times in the scene
- ▶ 1:22:49 Jason Calacanis Polymarket says, 99% chance May inflation comes in at 4.2% or higher.
Trump-Xi Summit, Benioff: "Not My First SaaSpocalypse," OpenAI vs Apple, Multi-Sensory AI, El Niño
- ▶ 2:03 Jason Calacanis Polymarket says Taiwan is safe for 2026, only six percent chance China invades this year on twenty three million volume, which is a lot of volume, 17% chance, roughly triple.
Elon’s Anthropic Deal, The Next AI Monopoly?, “FDA for AI” Panic, Trading the AI Boom
- ▶ 48:59 Jason Calacanis Here's your Polymarket for Trump ordering a federal review of AI models by May 31st, 21% chance, I think, uh, to our partner at Polymarket. 2 times in the scene
OpenAI Misses Targets, Codex vs Claude, Elon vs Sam Trial, Big Hyperscaler Beats, Peptide Craze
- ▶ 7:44 Jason Calacanis Here's your poly market. 2 times in the scene
- ▶ 34:30 Chamath Palihapitiya I think it's weird that Polymarket
SpaceX-Cursor Deal, SaaS Debt Bomb, New Apple CEO, SPLC Indictment, Colon Cancer Spike
- ▶ 16:00 Jason Calacanis Polymarket says all of this is faked.
Iran War, Oil Shock, Off Ramps, AI's Revenue Explosion and PR Nightmare
- ▶ 5:29 Jason Calacanis Wall Street Journal on Thursday quoted a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute saying that reopening the strait will require ground troops polymarket. 2 times in the scene
- ▶ 15:38 Jason Calacanis I think if the neocons get their way and the people on poly market are correct,
War with Iran + Pentagon vs Anthropic with Under Secretary of War Emil Michael
- ▶ 3:49 Jason Calacanis So here's an interesting polymarket. 3 times in the scene
Software Stocks Implode, Claude's Hit List, State of the Union Reactions, Trump's Tariff Pivot
- ▶ 1:11:24 Jason Calacanis Here's your poly market. 2 times in the scene
Debt Spiral or NEW Golden Age? Super Bowl Insider Trading, Booming Token Budgets, Ferrari's New EV
- ▶ 19:26 Jason Calacanis More than a billion bet on Kalshi, seven hundred million on Polymarket, almost two billion dollars in wagering. 4 times in the scene
Epstein Files, Is SaaS Dead?, Moltbook Panic, SpaceX xAI Merger, Trump's Fed Pick
- ▶ 1:59 Jason Calacanis That's the poly market is saying potatoes.
ICE Chaos in Minneapolis, Clawdbot Takeover, Why the Dollar is Dropping
- ▶ 1:20:24 Jason Calacanis Oh, here's your polymarket. 2 times in the scene
The Future of Everything: What CEOs of Circle, CrowdStrike & More See Coming in 2026
- ▶ 37:53 Jeremy Allaire Well now, you know, Polymark and Kalshi both
Coinbase CEO's Top 3 Crypto Trends for 2026 + More from Davos!
- ▶ 15:25 Brian Armstrong Uh, I know you guys, uh, work with Polymarket or whatever on the show. 3 times in the scene
Iran's Breaking Point, Trump's Greenland Acquisition, and Solving Energy Costs
- ▶ 6:40 Jason Calacanis Here's your poly markets, and then I'll let you give your thoughts on it.
- ▶ 57:03 Jason Calacanis That being said, there's only 50,000 people there and it's a poly market's got it a 17% chance that we acquire it, which is.
All-In's 2026 Predictions
- ▶ 8:41 Jason Calacanis Polymark it in. 2 times in the scene
- ▶ 16:03 Jason Calacanis Uh, you know, he is out there defending Trump, uh, and he's surging on poly market, ending the polls.
- ▶ 33:23 David Friedberg And the second is a poly market. 3 times in the scene
- ▶ 1:03:47 David Friedberg Polymarket. 3 times in the scene
- ▶ 1:06:31 Jason Calacanis And, uh, adding to all that and just giving my pick, I think if we are in a rate cut environment and the tailwinds keep happening and people have a little bit of cash laying around, my pick for best performing asset will be the Robinhood…
- ▶ 1:26:21 Jason Calacanis On a poly market, I'm sure there will be.
- ▶ 1:29:42 Jason Calacanis Let's do a Polymarket.