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Gavin Baker

39 statements across 13 episodes · 21 bullish · 9 bearish · 3 people on the record · first statement Apr 21, 2023 by Gavin Baker · said 29 times in 18 episodes since 2021 · across every show →

On the record as a speaker too: Gavin Baker's record, appearances and statements → this page counts the times other people say the name.

Mentions by year

brought up most by Jason Calacanis (20), Chamath Palihapitiya (4), Thomas Laffont (2), David Sacks (2), David Friedberg (1)

tap a year for its mentions
0083156202120222023202420252026episodesmentions
036202120222023202420252026episodes it came up in
001.5336202120222023202420252026episodesmentions per episode
2026 12 mentions in 4 episodes 3 per episode
2025 8 mentions in 6 episodes 1 per episode
2024 3 mentions in 3 episodes 1 per episode
2022 5 mentions in 4 episodes 1 per episode
2021 1 mention in 1 episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about Gavin Baker, oldest first

Apr 21, 2023 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Gavin Baker: Starship test flight reached 39km compared to Soviet N1's 12km
“There was the rocket flew for four minutes and went through max Q and went to 39 kilometers, the Soviet in one. Which was a comparable rocket, only reached 12 kilometers.”
Gavin Baker Apr 21, 2023 ▶ 13:39 E125: SpaceX launch, Fox News settlement, "Zombie-corn" exodus to AI, late-stage implosion
Apr 21, 2023 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2033
Baker: Starship will replace transoceanic air cargo within ten years
“Yeah, there will be no more Trans-Pacific or Trans-Atlantic cargo flights. I think in five, six, seven, eight, 10 years, you're gonna need a big Starship fleet to accomplish that. But I think the Trans-Atlantic and Trans-Pacific aerospace cargo routes go away.”
Gavin Baker Apr 21, 2023 ▶ 8:32 E125: SpaceX launch, Fox News settlement, "Zombie-corn" exodus to AI, late-stage implosion
Sep 26, 2024
Assertion Supported
Laffont: More tech companies are valued over $1B privately than publicly
“There's more private companies in tech That are worth more than a billion than public ones.”
Thomas Laffont Sep 26, 2024 ▶ 6:27 Thomas Laffont | All-In Summit 2024
Dec 7, 2024
Assertion Partly supported
Baker: MicroStrategy's core business generates only $400M in annual revenue
“But the, but his, the underlying business that, you know, pays the interest expense on the debt only does four hundred million dollars a year in revenue, and it's, you know, high gross margin revenue.”
Gavin Baker Dec 7, 2024 ▶ 42:13 New SEC Chair, Bitcoin, xAI Supercomputer, UnitedHealth CEO murder, with Gavin Baker & Joe Lonsdale
Dec 7, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker: Grok 3 will prove if AI scaling laws are hitting walls
“Grok three is a big card and will resolve the this question of whether or not we're hitting a wall.”
Gavin Baker Dec 7, 2024 ▶ 57:34 New SEC Chair, Bitcoin, xAI Supercomputer, UnitedHealth CEO murder, with Gavin Baker & Joe Lonsdale
Dec 7, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker: China will fail to keep pace with U.S. AI post-Blackwell
“But, you know, Nvidia's Blackwell chip comes out next year. You're gonna have new chips from AMD, new ASICs from Broadcom. And I think at that point, it is not going to be possible for them to keep up anymore.”
Gavin Baker Dec 7, 2024 ▶ 47:47 New SEC Chair, Bitcoin, xAI Supercomputer, UnitedHealth CEO murder, with Gavin Baker & Joe Lonsdale
Dec 7, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker: Human language will become the dominant programming language within a year
“But I think next year, human language will be the dominant programming language.”
Gavin Baker Dec 7, 2024 ▶ 1:21:35 New SEC Chair, Bitcoin, xAI Supercomputer, UnitedHealth CEO murder, with Gavin Baker & Joe Lonsdale
Dec 7, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker: AI has another innovation decade even if training scaling breaks
“Even if scaling laws for training break, we have another decade of innovation ahead of us.”
Gavin Baker Dec 7, 2024 ▶ 59:10 New SEC Chair, Bitcoin, xAI Supercomputer, UnitedHealth CEO murder, with Gavin Baker & Joe Lonsdale
Jan 4, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker predicts a tidal wave of corporate M&A driven by pent-up demand
“I think there's gonna, you're gonna see a tidal wave of M&A after four years of not being able to get anything done. I think there's an enormous amount of pent up demand.”
Gavin Baker Jan 4, 2025 ▶ 51:03 2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics!
Jan 4, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker predicts a massive shortage of GPUs and compute capacity in 2025
“We're going to run out of GPUs, accelerators, compute in 2025, the same way we did in 23.”
Gavin Baker Jan 4, 2025 ▶ 22:41 2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics!
Jan 4, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker predicts government service providers will be 2025's biggest business losers
“Government service providers. You do not want to have the United States government at any level as over 35% of your revenue.”
Gavin Baker Jan 4, 2025 ▶ 39:27 2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics!
Jan 4, 2025
Opinion
Baker estimates a 25% chance the US government holds alien proof
“I would say 25. I would take the over on the 20.”
Gavin Baker Jan 4, 2025 ▶ 1:50:44 2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics!
Jan 4, 2025
Insight
Baker argues winning AI companies must own their compute infrastructure
“The ultimate AI winner will be the one with the lowest cost of infrastructure costs, the lowest cost of compute. And definitionally, you can't be the low cost provider if you're renting your compute from someone else.”
Gavin Baker Jan 4, 2025 ▶ 51:37 2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics!
Jan 4, 2025 bullish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Baker predicts multiple independent frontier AI labs will be acquired in 2025
“And then I do think you will see a lot of these frontier AI labs that are independent be acquired.”
Gavin Baker Jan 4, 2025 ▶ 51:21 2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics!
Jan 31, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Jason Calacanis predicts all large language models will become open-source commodities
“Gavin Baker came on this podcast and said it's the fastest deprecating asset in the world was a large language model. He's been proven right. They're not worth anything. They're all going to be open source. They're all going to be commoditized, and that's for …”
Jason Calacanis Jan 31, 2025 ▶ 44:01 DeepSeek Panic, US vs China, OpenAI $40B?, and Doge Delivers with Travis Kalanick and David Sacks
Mar 29, 2025 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Baker: Global AI GPU infrastructure is not overbuilt yet
“So we're definitely not overbuilt yet.”
Gavin Baker Mar 29, 2025 ▶ 11:08 The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Mar 29, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker: Building vast numbers of humanoid robots will take a long time
“I think it's going to be a long time before we have hundreds of millions of robots. You know, even between China and Tesla, I think it's going to take a long time to make vast numbers of humanoid robots.”
Gavin Baker Mar 29, 2025 ▶ 34:18 The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Mar 29, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gavin Baker: No president raised my taxes more than Donald Trump
“No one has ever raised, no president has ever raised my taxes more than Trump did.”
Gavin Baker Mar 29, 2025 ▶ 49:10 The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Jul 19, 2025 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker: Stock market would drop significantly if Trump fires Fed Chair Powell
“I do think the market would go down quite a bit more if Trump did fire Powell.”
Gavin Baker Jul 19, 2025 ▶ 7:48 Trump vs Powell, Solving the Debt Crisis, The $10T AGI Prize, GENIUS Act Becomes Law
Aug 9, 2025
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Baker: Zohran Mamdani will almost certainly win NYC mayoral election
“Unless Adams or Cuomo pulls out, he's almost certainly going to win.”
Gavin Baker Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 1:02:07 OpenAI's GPT-5 Flop, AI's Unlimited Market, China's Big Advantage, Rise in Socialism, Housing Crisis
Aug 9, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Baker: OpenAI's ChatGPT-5 router was broken for its first 16 hours
“I mean, in all fairness to OpenAI, the router that kind of auto selects the right model was apparently broken for the first kind of. 12 or 16 hours of the model's release. It wasn't working.”
Gavin Baker Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 15:54 OpenAI's GPT-5 Flop, AI's Unlimited Market, China's Big Advantage, Rise in Socialism, Housing Crisis
Aug 9, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker: $1B in smuggled Nvidia chips won't alter US-China AI race
“A billion dollars worth of GPUs. It's not enough to really move the needle, you know, even if they are Blackwell's the latest and greatest, you know, it's better than having none if you're China. But I mean, it's just, you know, it's not like a 10, twenty bill…”
Gavin Baker Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 1:29:40 OpenAI's GPT-5 Flop, AI's Unlimited Market, China's Big Advantage, Rise in Socialism, Housing Crisis
Aug 9, 2025 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Baker: Tariffs are traditionally a Democratic position that Clinton and Obama ran on
“Tariffs are traditionally a democratic policy position. You know, Clinton ran on them. Obama ran on them to be a slightly lesser degree.”
Gavin Baker Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 1:25:15 OpenAI's GPT-5 Flop, AI's Unlimited Market, China's Big Advantage, Rise in Socialism, Housing Crisis
Aug 9, 2025 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Baker: Expected foreign retaliation against U.S. tariffs has not occurred
“We have not seen retaliation, which I think in some ways, you know, validates some of their points of views, just that we do have a lot of leverage and we are using it and other countries are charging America much higher tariffs than we're charging them.”
Gavin Baker Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 1:25:47 OpenAI's GPT-5 Flop, AI's Unlimited Market, China's Big Advantage, Rise in Socialism, Housing Crisis
Aug 9, 2025 positive
Opinion
Baker: Imperial presidency is preferable to an imperial judiciary
“And the executive branch, which is at least elected and accountable, I would rather have an imperial president who we can judge and vote out of office than an imperial judiciary.”
Gavin Baker Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 48:00 OpenAI's GPT-5 Flop, AI's Unlimited Market, China's Big Advantage, Rise in Socialism, Housing Crisis
May 22, 2026 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gavin Baker: Older GPUs have a useful life of 10 to 15 years
“All GPUs use Grok or Cerebrus for decode, and then those older GPUs, they have a useful life for 10 or 15 years, and this means that you can finance GPUs.”
Gavin Baker May 22, 2026 ▶ 1:21:07 SpaceX’s $2T Case, Nvidia’s Shock Selloff, America Turns on AI, Trump Pulls AI Order, Bond Crisis?
May 22, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2030
Baker predicts orbital compute will become a reality between 2028 and 2030
“Second half of 28 to First half of 20 30 would be my point prediction.”
Gavin Baker May 22, 2026 ▶ 1:11:13 SpaceX’s $2T Case, Nvidia’s Shock Selloff, America Turns on AI, Trump Pulls AI Order, Bond Crisis?
May 22, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2028
Baker estimates SpaceX will achieve rapid Starship reusability within 1-2 years
“I don't know when. I don't want to make a prediction. I would guess a year or two. Maybe sooner.”
Gavin Baker May 22, 2026 ▶ 1:09:08 SpaceX’s $2T Case, Nvidia’s Shock Selloff, America Turns on AI, Trump Pulls AI Order, Bond Crisis?
Jun 7, 2026 negative
Opinion
Gavin Baker: There is no good reason for companies to remain private longer
“I don't think there is actually a good reason to stay private longer.”
Gavin Baker Jun 7, 2026 ▶ 4:38 Why Secondary Markets Are Eating the IPO | All-In Liquidity Secondary Markets Panel
Jun 7, 2026 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Baker: Zipline reduced maternal mortality in African regions by 90% to 95%
“They have cut The maternal mortality rate in some of these African countries by 90 to 95%.”
Gavin Baker Jun 7, 2026 ▶ 37:49 Why Secondary Markets Are Eating the IPO | All-In Liquidity Secondary Markets Panel
Jun 12, 2026 positive
Insight
Baker: Broadly applicable biotech platforms produce rare $100B+ outcomes
“If you ever get a biotech company that can become a platform and they have a mechanism, whether it's of drugging, whether it's targeting, if you have something that is broadly applicable, that is when you can get these really, really big hundred billion dollar…”
Gavin Baker Jun 12, 2026 ▶ 59:33 All-In's Best Ideas Pitch Competition: 4 Investors Present Their Top Trades Live
Jun 12, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Baker: MGM Resorts offers the best risk/reward among pitched trades
“From a pure risk award perspective, I thought MGM was the best. Your downside is really capped because of the Barry Diller bid, and then you have Japan and Dubai as, I think, very valuable future sources of value.”
Gavin Baker Jun 12, 2026 ▶ 58:12 All-In's Best Ideas Pitch Competition: 4 Investors Present Their Top Trades Live
Jun 27, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker: AI GPUs will remain in active use for 7-12 years
“We're going to be using GPUs for Seven years, 10 years, 12 years, and that's great because it lowers the cost to finance them, which makes this AI revolution more financeable.”
Gavin Baker Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 1:25:05 Socialists Sweep NYC, China Catches Up in Coding, AI Memory Crunch, Micron's Blowout Quarter
Jun 27, 2026 positive
Insight
Gavin Baker: Open-source AI shifts economic value to infrastructure providers
“They're awesome for the AI infrastructure providers. They just shift economic value from the margins of the frontier labs to the infrastructure.”
Gavin Baker Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 49:44 Socialists Sweep NYC, China Catches Up in Coding, AI Memory Crunch, Micron's Blowout Quarter
Jun 27, 2026 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker: Enterprises will adopt composable multi-model 'Council of LLMs' architectures
“I profoundly believe the future is composable models, and you're going to every enterprise, You're going to have what Andre Karpathy called the Council of LLNs.”
Gavin Baker Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 48:42 Socialists Sweep NYC, China Catches Up in Coding, AI Memory Crunch, Micron's Blowout Quarter
Aug 13, 2026 bullish
Assertion Open · timeframe Aug 2027
Baker: Anthropic is profitable and currently generating cash
“Anthropic is generating cash, and like, they kind of, this fact is, I would say, kind of known in the world, and I've actually never really spoken to Anthropic, but it just, you know, it feels like there are enough signals And then if you're to read the tea le…”
Gavin Baker Aug 13, 2026 ▶ 1:11:41 Anthropic's $2T IPO, Zuck's AI Manifesto, Nvidia's $500B AI Bet, Grok's Comeback
Aug 13, 2026 negative
Disclosure
Gavin Baker: Generally avoids investing in Elon Musk's competitors
“I don't generally invest in Elon's competitors. I don't think it's a wise course of action.”
Gavin Baker Aug 13, 2026 ▶ 4:49 Anthropic's $2T IPO, Zuck's AI Manifesto, Nvidia's $500B AI Bet, Grok's Comeback
Aug 13, 2026 bearish
Insight
Baker: Closed model dominance creates a tough environment for software companies
“A world where Anthropik, OpenAI, and, you know, maybe even SpaceX are kind of the only model providers that dominate the model layer, that is a hard world for software.”
Gavin Baker Aug 13, 2026 ▶ 1:36:33 Anthropic's $2T IPO, Zuck's AI Manifesto, Nvidia's $500B AI Bet, Grok's Comeback
Aug 13, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker: Anthropic reaching $400B to $500B revenue by 2027 is realistic
“I think four to five, I think four to five hundred billion is within the zone of like realistic and achievable.”
Gavin Baker Aug 13, 2026 ▶ 51:35 Anthropic's $2T IPO, Zuck's AI Manifesto, Nvidia's $500B AI Bet, Grok's Comeback
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